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DD Dav1234,
Newsprint price increases, tax credits, NOL carryforwards most easily accessible through preservation of the common stock, write downs for the sake of bargaining leverage, billions unaccounted for in JV's & subsidiaries, insatiable Chinese appetite for newsprint, large short position, mills depreciated to zero starting back up, black liquor tax credits, asset sales in the works, low float, trading injunction preventing 80% of commons from being sold, Q's running like mad...
Did I miss anything?
With TDA, no annual IRA fee that I'm aware of and 9.99 per trade, regardless of size or price.
TDA...but I like pennies and subpennies. TOS platform is available.
My bid for 100k at .032 is going unfilled while they march it down to .031
I vote no on the ban of ohiotom.
Someone is holding it back and I agree with the assessment from earlier today that this same party is also taking a long position to hedge their short. The increasing volume and heightened interest will eventually result in them covering far higher than planned. We're only a couple big buyers away.
I'm glad to see some other Q's doing well this week and agree that some of that $$$ will find it's way here when more peeps realize the potential.
Nice! Thanks for posting.
Who knows- from the look of things it must be a signal to crash the party.
And a mirror trade at .141. I'm seeing large mirror trades in other Q plays right now as well.
Yes, getting better. Manti hit the nail on the head- one swing group & we see a run.
Not sure how the .145's are filling when I'm trying to slap the ask for .15. MM's trying to contain it.
level 2 anyone?
Agreed on ABWTQ, new MM on the bid. One big buyer could initiate the squeeze.
The b/a hasn't been reflected accurately here for months.
10000 of the shares filled after hours were from an order that I placed with 5 seconds left in the trading day.
.47 x .48
Yes, more than anything else, this simple math should tell us ABWTQ is capable of a big run
dav1234 posted this info a while back but here is the link for the Fairfax position of 36,886,111
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000090956709000270/o54365sc13dza.htm
With the trading injunction, Steelhead, Fairfax, & insiders are still holding 80+% of the common.
This short position of 3.5 million baffles me.
Awful quiet while people accumulate
Updated Short Interest Out:
Abitibibowater Inc $ 0.15
ABWTQ -0.00
Short Interest (Shares Short) 3,503,200
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 9.0
Short Percent of Float %
Short Interest - Prior 3,582,100
Short % Increase / Decrease -2.20 %
Folks, there is a trading injunction in place here for 5% owners for the sake of preserving the US & foreign NOL's. This means there is almost zero chance of the 80% currently locked up by Fairfax, Steelhead, and insiders of being sold.
ABWTQ has the extension for the exclusive plan or reorg until December 14 but has already stated an intent to request further extensions. If anyone is worried about the commons, we've got a minimum of 4 months before that even comes into play. Based on the value of their tax attributes, I think they'd like to retain them.
HAYZQ, ASYTQ, GMGMQ- all stated commons would be worthless but they still had runs. When enough people realize that we have a $6 billion firm with a 25-30% short position trading at a $8 million market cap, the momo players will initiate a squeeze.
If they don't- news of asset sales, judgments from the violation of Nafta, additional govt subsidies should motivate some covering. In this case, the asset sales will come prior to the emergence of BK so NOL's can offset what would be taxable income after.
We're still very early in the game here.
Regarding the loss, remember this is a turnaround play. You have to be willing to buy when others aren't. Perfect example is CEMJQ.
ABWTQ float is held more tightly than CEMJQ initially was and is much smaller. Factor in the large short position and a CEMJQ type move could happen at any time. This Q has yet to run and the chart shows major accumulation in the past month with a gap to be filled.
Just a reminder that bodes well for the common:
As of December 31, 2008, we had U.S. federal and state net operating loss carryforwards of $793 million and $1,076 million, respectively, and Canadian federal and provincial net operating loss carryforwards of $678 million and $783 million, respectively. In addition, $305 million of Canadian investment tax credit and expense carryforwards and $82 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards were available to reduce future income taxes. The U.S. federal and state loss carryforwards expire at various dates up to 2028. The Canadian non-capital loss and investment tax credit carryforwards expire at various dates between 2009 and 2028. Of the U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $79 million consists of alternative minimum tax credits that have no expiration. A valuation allowance totaling $832 million has been recorded against these and other deferred tax assets where recovery of the asset or carryforward is uncertain.
Section 382 allows these tax attributes to survive without limit if there is no major ownership change in the commons.
80% of the commons are locked up by institutions and insiders, all of whom are aware of this.
Earnings release tomorrow- chart looks as if there may have been a leak?
Gotta jump on the ABWTQ train for the upcoming week. That's my first of many weekly picks for this board.
Edit: I know matthew633 has already picked it :)
ABWTQ another low float play on the verge of a breakout.
Someone dumped 150k at .14 and the B/A unchanged
I saw the 8k stating the MOR had been filed but for some reason epiq isn't showing it with the rest of the dockets. I don't expect it to be pretty. After all, based on recent trends, the company has let go 25% of the corporate staff.
USD has been weak & newsprint prices are at all-time lows but it's good this happened now rather than 3 months from now. The company is making the needed adjustments to thrive when the broader industry shows any improvement.
In my eyes, July marked bottom and August is where we begin seeing improvement. The asset sales and cost reductions are just the beginning. Unfortunately, these things won't be reflected in July's MOR.
Abitibi & Bowater bonds are starting to show some life as well.
http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter/Watchlist.aspx
Interest has increased this week, with all of today's activity to the upside.
Could it be some bigger asset sales are in the works?
Nice, another $53 million!
ABWTQ- short squeeze looks to be coming
Thanks for posting! $26 million here, $300 million there...things may finally be starting to fall into place.
News: ABWTQ slashing head office staff by 25%
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2009/08/05/abitibibowater-cuts-staff.html
The ask jumped from .15 to .18 a/h when this hit
Agree- MYST is making a move
Strong close, I picked up the last shares of the day at .094. In looking at the recent chart, CMF 5 showing accumulation has typically preceded a run. Let's hope it holds true again.
We had our catalyst- unfortunately the company failed to PR the judge granting their extension request for exlusive POR.
Next catalyst could be asset sale or possible judgment awarding ABWTQ $300+ million for Canada's illegal expropriation of hydro assets. With such a large short position & majority of O/S in tight hands, this one could pull a FRNTQ right when we least expect it.
Who knows...based on the obvious accumulation shown on the chart, maybe we won't need much of a catalyst.
Looking that way...fingers crossed.
I guess 122,000 at HOD is a good sign
True. Maybe as part of the PR they can mention: "With a current market cap of under $8 million, our legal and tax teams are actively working to preserve billions of $ to offset future income."
A PR would be nice but I don't think they're eager to spend money while in Ch 11 on a PR for something that is already public info.