Proto, to your point #4 " the cost of product is almost all in development costs to date, the ongoing cost to goods will be next to nothing...".

This really is a magic formula for earnings in the future. This and the value of patents on manufacture and packaging of polymer juiced chips is going to be eye popping. One has no further to look than to the Pharmaceutical Industry where the cost and time to develop a drug is huge and there are fails along the way before the final drug structure is found. It must be safe and do no significant harm. The drug is protected by patents so there is no competition. It has a long runway and often captures new uses once it is introduced.

There are several analogies here. We have the drug to fix the internet.

Scammed? Third party confirmations (Polariton and SilOrix) using the LWLG technology validates the tech works. One can only estimate when deals get finalized. Adjustments in the polymer, packaging improvements and testing volumes of finished product after these changes likely added to some time to deals. Testing production runs to the satisfaction of partners had to happen. Finally at the PIC conference Dr. Lebby gave it an all clear sign and finally said deals will be finalized. I have been here just under two years and he has never been so definitive in his believing we are ready.

People who have listened to Kerrisdale about all the deficiencies in the technology have been scammed. Shorts who rely on their algorithms to try and continue to short when the first deal is announced will get fleeced.

Things are heating up on this board today due to a lower share price, a lack of any success with commercialization (no deal yet), and increasing negative posts by shorts and traders. Tensions will rise as we approach the ASM especially if there is no deal in the week leading up to the ASM. Watching the share price go down makes me anxious. Despite that, I have been adding shares and lowering my basis. I deal with anxiety by taking a step back and I look at facts.

1) Lightwave's polymer works extremely well and when added to a slot modulator far surpasses current materials.
2) PDK's are complete and previous problems have been solved at the foundry level.
3) At the PIC conference Dr. Lebby told everyone that stabilty is excellent and volume production works in smaller foundries and they are able to move to commercialization based on current results (SilOrix confirmed they are to that point and they have been strongly linked to LWLG).
4)The sticking point for larger foundries has been needing to move on from using gold and LWLG has had success with aluminum electrodes strongly suggesting this will be the last major step to moving to CMOS based manufacture in large foundries. This suggests it is a matter of time. Based on the needs of the industry this technology is "must have".
5) Dr. Lebby stated that manufacturing issues are resolved and he will work 100% on finalizing deals along with chosen closer, Atikem Hailemariam.This signals to me that we are getting close.
6) The stock price is down beacuse of market factors. Almost all pre-revenue companies have been shorted aggressively in this historic interest raising environment. Higher interest rates and LWLG working under NDAs has given shorts the cover they need to aggressively short the stock.
7) Apart from the shorts messages of no revenue and deals in the past so none in the future they have no reasons to keep saying Lightwave's technology doesn't work. The credibility of the obviously negative posters has been proven false over the past year regarding poling, stability, functional PDK's and time frames to solve these issues. These problems have been solved.
8)Lightwave's polymers can work with most if not all semiconductor materials and offer the low cost answer to advancing functionality of chips to help push our country and allies into a stronger position going forward solidifying NATO countries lead. This has importance for military and security leadership. I am sure our government is aware of our company. Future CHIPS Act help with mass commercialization?
9) The polymers can be adjusted and advanced to make them more functioinal regarding speed and power reduction and the wavelengths can be tuned based on the needs of the application. This adds to the wide eventual use of the polymers. Remember the large patent moat and the fact there is no competitor on the horizon that can offer a ploymer that is close to what LWLG has.
10)The Chromosol patent portfolio acquisition seems to add to the liklihood of ubiquity.

People shorting will likely increase the closer we get to the ASM and if no deal is announced. This is reality. I see this as desperation based on where we are regarding the readiness to commercialize with technological problems solved and because it has worked for them over the past year. The reality is they are stuck and will watch the share price rocket up when deals are announced. Based on the specs I can see that customers would want Lightwave's products ASAP. Deals will be done in due time. I don't want Dr. Lebby to cave to any deal partners may want leading up to the ASM. I am sure they are aware of Lightwave's possible need to come to the ASM with a deal. I am sure Dr. Lebby would like this but I want him to make deals that stick to rules that are clear to future customers because in the end it makes future deals, easier to accomplish. In the mean time I look at the facts to alleviate my anxiety. The storm will pass.

I agree Pitcook that once Lightwave's technology is being widely used in the market there will be less of a need for being at so many conferences. Until the technology is widely used, being at conferences is still very important.

It seems to me that Dr. Lebby is trying to reach as many people in the industry as he can, especially since so many obstacles and new advances have been accomplished this year. Through technical conferences people learn about the advancements and can go back to their offices and labs to discuss the impact Lightwave's technology might have on their present and future products. Companies send their knowledge representatives to such conferences to come back with new information which benefits their decision on adapting new technology. This is often discussed at the Board level in companies. Many big deals to partner need the approval of the Board of Directors to finalize it. Letting the world know that LWLG has everything ready to commercialize is a very important message to get out as directly as possible.

Equally important are investment conferences. Having two of them coming may be a harbringer of the future regarding deals. Getting the message out that commercialization is just getting going allows new investors to look under the hood so to speak. We want analyst coverage. This is how you get your foot in the door.

Dr. Lebby has the tech side covered for now with John Zyskind helping foundries get rolling. For him to say he is 100 prercent focused on getting deals completed should get your heart going.

Re:NLM as a competitor
"I hope they will join this race one day"

Yes, as long as they pay for use of LWLG's patents.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-fiscal-year-2007/
Here is an example of a fairly recent highly innovative product that we are all familiar with and how sales progressed after its introduction.
I phone sales 2007 1.39 mil
2008 11.63 mil
2009 20.73 mil
2010 39.99 mil
2011 72.29 mil
2012 125.05 mil
2013 150.26 mil
2014 169.22 mil
2015 239.22 mil
2016 211.88 mil
2017 216.76 mil
2018 217.72 mil

This is of course an example of a wonderfully innovative product priced in a premium way yet growing rapidly despite legacy competitors. Given some limitations on manufacturing the first several years they still had breakthrough growth until sales stabilized after the 2015 peak. Remember the lines waiting for the release of new versions?
Competitors adapted some of the i phone features and had robust sales as well. From 2008 until the peak in 2015 global sales of smart phones (including i phones ) grew 10X. I phone sales alone grew 20X in that time frame. Competitors had to adapt by accepting lower margins to sell their phones and offering cheaper less functional products for people in less affluent countries. Competitors made sales by offering cheap prices so phone plans could offer them as incentives to switch or upgrade to their plans. Competitors survived but never came close to doing as well as Apple. Apple did this despite being much more expensive than other phones.

What do you think the growth rate would have been if the price of i phones was comparable to competitors, they had multiple foundries churning out chips to power devices, the speed was 3X faster than any other phone and they used less power so batteries lasted longer. It would be very hard to compete with the product. This is how a company can quickly take over a market.

LWLG has the advantage of having the only polymer that can meet the needs of the market, and the patent moat in polymer production and manufacture of polymer devices to protect their position in the market. They can easily manufacture all of the polymer that is needed on demand. With the advantage of cost, speed, power savings, and flexibility of integration into devices with a potential roadmap to expand into other segments of the market you have the formula for ubiquitous.

I was also thinking why now hiring a closer. I would suspect a framework for a deal has been in place for some time. I doubt they would be working with foundries for over 2 years without one. Both sides need to know what each generally expects without looking at all the details. Now that the technical problems are solved, at least for the smaller flexible foundries, they can meet somewhere within range of each sides expectations. Lebby has been clear for quite a while that they are going to seek the appropriate value for commercialization. The wrangling could well be around final details on the value of technology transfer now that the value is more apparent with problems solved and good results. Small numbers matter financially especially for the foundries as they look at their margin requirements.

Dr. Lebby hired someone he has worked with in the past and knows they can work together. There are likely many entities to negotiate with and there will be a good deal of back and forth which will take time. Dr. Lebby has an extender as well as a knowledeable consultatant on the details. This hire will help expedite deal making. I would assume he knows a great deal about how contracts should be worded to prevent future problems.

This hire also signals to all the foundries that have final PDK's that now it is deal time. They know other foundries will be involved. I don't think they want to last in line to get the ball rolling especially if they have been planning to start manufacturing soon after the contract.

Don't freak out, yet.
We didn't hear about a commercialization update or DEAL with the conference. Remember this is a technological conference. Michael Lebby is here to talk about progress with the polymer platform. He is also the co-chair. He has all kinds responsibilities to keep things moving in a timely and effective direction for the whole conference. Yes, of course he has help with that. If the conference doesn't run smoothly, people remember that and who was in charge. This is, after all, supposed to fun for the attendees.

If I was in his position, I would not release commercialization plans with any new clarity before or during the conference. It would be a distraction from his duties as co-chair. It would appear self serving as well. He would perhaps be inundated with questions from the 700 attendees he would have to beg off answering. It would put people off.

Don't freak out, yet. There is still about a month for commercialization updates before the ASM.

Ted, You are working hard today to present many technological and manufacturing hurdles for LWLG to overcome before commercialization can begin. Dr. Lebby will be presenting tomorrow so some of your uncertainties may go away for shareholders and prospective investors and perhaps even you.

If there are such manufacturing and high cost "problems" that need to be resolved, why would many foundries want to waste time working with LWLG especially since there has been repeated progress reports from the company on problems solved and samples testing out well.

Regarding the high costs you suggest could be a hurdle, costs would likely be less as perkinamine allows foundries to forgo a driver in the modulator and allows less costly materials to be used. Michael Lebby has said perkinamine is compatible with all current materials used as an add on in the manufacturing process.

Thanks for your update jeunke22. Stability of polymers has not often been mentioned as much as faster, lower power and small size. People need to appreciate how important lower power consumption is especially since large data centers like AWS, Microsoft and Google have set goals to be carbon neutral by 2025. To get there they are buying Power Purchase Agreements to guarantee access to long term availability of renewable energy. Renewables are not available everywhere due to location and climate. They have to reduce usage. Polymers consume less energy which is good. They produce less heat as a result which likely aids stability. Less heat emitted requires less cooling and again less power consumed. When you think about it, our polymers get greener by the day.

The share price will trade within a $4-6 dollar range based on the overall market and efforts by shorts to keep the price down. We will move ahead only with meaningful news about setting the stage for and especially commencing commercialization. Dr. Lebby's conferences with information about progress keeps the retail base hopeful about the future. Hope unfortunately doesn't move the share price, certainty does.

With Lightwave hosting the PIC conference and Michael Lebby speaking on high volume production of polymer based chips, I hope he can answer some important questions about quality of samples and discuss readiness to move to commercialization. It would be really great if it became clear that SilOriX was in fact a partner and was ready to move toward commercialization. That alone would say a great deal.

Competitors and customers will be listening. Several competitors have already announced specs for 800g transceivers talking about "breakthrough lower power". This seems to be a very important talking point for the industry so Michael Lebby will need to discuss specs for the LWLG planned entry into that market and show what "breakthrough lower power" really means. Guidance on time frame would really let everyone know "it is happening". Such guidance would require some statement about partners even if it was something like "look for a joint release in the coming weeks".

It has been a long time to get to the current place the company is in. I think some people have just fallen asleep waiting for news that is meaningful. I would like Dr. Lebby to offer something that gives certainty regarding commercialization other than "we are on track". People at conferences never remember who bought lunches and dinners after they leave. Dr. Lebby has to give them something to talk about after they leave the conference.

There are other ways to extend an agreement prior to a signed contract. It would be possible to sign a Memorandum of Understanding that a deal could occur if certain things transpire ia a certain way. These are not binding. A more certain choice between parties could be a Memorandum of Agreement which might carry some penalty if a contract is not signed. When a contract is agreed upon, an announcement could be put off until all important parties are present to review and sign. In these ways there is more control of timing of final contracts.

It is quite possible LWLG is close to the deals they suggested would happen and when all aspects of the deal are final they will most probably issue an 8-K, but there will a likely be a joint announcement before you see the 8-K. I am sure Dr. Lebby would want to announce it in the usual manner other companies do with financially important information.

I don't believe that Dr. Lebby is obligated to signal important information prior a signed agreemnet so that short sellers would not sue the company. Short sellers are not shareholders.

Companies working together under a NDA can write in clauses that outline what preliminary work, outcomes of that work, testing of product and other important things that will clarify success in working together. It could spell out a timeline of what constitutes a financial arrangement that can be made public. This can afford them time before having to issue an 8-K if that is what they want to do in order to extend the time of the confidentislity of a NDA. Ndas can be changed anytime along the way if circumstances change as long as both parties agree.
I am not a lawyer but well crafted NDAs can allow companies to control release of information that is sensititve and could adversely affect any one of the companies involved.

To the shorts in I-Hub Land.
Are you really sure about your short positioms with the PIC meeting next week with LWLG sponsoring? What are the chances they describe important data from high volume manufacturing from partner or partners? Data such as heat stability far exceeding industry standards, success with poling, updated data on speed and power that will likely open many eyes and reliability of testing quality of manufacture of chips at the foundry level? Comparisons to currently available chips and transceivers could emphasize the quality, functionality and likely economic need for Lightwave's devices. It could be more impactful if there is updated guidance of commercial rollout with a partner or partners. That would be stunning. You know what trading is like in this stock when information such as this has not been presented to an industry wide audience of leaders in the photonics space. The PIC meeting is huge. Anything that clarifies uncertainty of the likely rollout of far superior modulator chips will lead to much greater demand for stock. How will you cover? From experience you know it will not be easy yet you mostly have sat on positions.

This reminds me about the advise given by Kenny Rogers in the song "The Gambler" especially the chorus:

You got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away and know when to run
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done

Michael Lebby is the dealer. He could have some cards up his sleeve that may surprise.
When Lightwave's products hit the market they will sell like pumpkin pies the day before Thanksgiving (no offense GP).

Ted, I agree with what you are saying. I believe LWLG will always have competitors especially ones looking to use hybrid methods outside of using an optoellectric polymer. There are increasing (and I would say desperate) attempts to try and squeeze out faster devices to try and keep up with the growing bandwith requirements. Some are showing some improvements with lower power but these improvements don't come close to what LWLG has demonstrated by adding a high tramission polymer to silicon that increases speed while getting rid of the need for a driver.

LWLG has inherent advantages that should keep them at the forefront when their products hit the marketplace. It is hard to beat a simpler design. With less needed hardware their chips will be very, very small. This makes design of devices more flexble as one could add many chips to increase speed as needed. Cost may also come into play. I don't know how this will pan out but it makes sense there is more value in a simpler design with less added components. I think competitors will be challenged by cost issues. Cost is not just the cost of the device. One must factor in the cost of the power used by the device.

RED, yes con number 3 has a good chance of becoming a pro but at the same time it is a con as LWLG still must defeat the competition which consists of large legacy companies with a history with their customer base. It will be up to LWLG and partners to get the better product out there QUICKLY to take market share. Because of the NDAs that is the open question as to how things are getting set up.

The next several months will be important to see evidence of moving towards commercializaton for LWLG. When evaluating the potential for a stock like LWLG one must look at the pros and cons in investing. With the stock price not that far from a yearly low it is worthwhile to take a look at the reasons to invest. I don't believe the following is fully comprehensive and other people posting may have other thoughts one way or the other. I am a stockholder.

PROS:
1) The company's optoelectric polymer is very heat stable and on several occassions Michael Lebby has said poling has been successfully accomplished.
2)The polymer can be added into the manufacturing of modulator chips without the need to add new semiconductor equipment making it's use cost effective.
3)Modulators made with the polymer are up to 3X faster, and because of a simpler design are up to 30X smaller based on the method of applying the polymer to semiconductor material.
4)The polymer is compatible with all current semiconductor materials and likely will be so with future materials.
5)The polymer can be set to function with varying wavelenghts increasing its utility into the market.
6)Data Centers are facing cost pressures and outside pressure regarding the high energy consumption in manufacturing and its affect on the climate. LWLG polymers allow a modulator to forgo a driver which results in less power consumption and heat. Heat from transceivers result in the need for more air conditioned cooling further consuming energy. Less energy consumed results in big savings for the device user.
7)While the inital plan is to introduce the polymers to the Data com and Tele com markets other uses are possible including Ai, Lidar. sensing and medical.
8)The company will be operating a capital lite model through royalty, transfer of technology know how and purchase of the polymer for use in the manufacturing wafers at the foundry level. There are 7 foundries working with LWLG under NDAs based on prior statements by management.
9)There is a strong patent moat in place with patents that cover the manufacture of an opto electric polymer to be used in foundry level manufacuring and packaging of modulators. There are no current competitors that have produced a similar polymer that is ready for use and a competitor would face a patent wall.
10)There very strong management with a Board of Directors and a CEO with a long history of innovation.
11)There is an extremely large and loyal retail ownership of stock that has resisted to a large extent the aggressive short selling over the past 18 months.
12)Current short count is at 20 million share with days to cover more than 30. A respose to positive news could lead to shorts covering positions and a rapid rise in share price.
13)PIC conference in less than 2 weeks could give further clarity to status of commercialization. LWLG is sponsoring the conference financially which they have never done in the past suggesting something important may be disclosed.
14)There is urgency in the market to have faster, smaller and lower power modulators as the data use on the internet is rising dramatically every year. No current solution other than LWLG's check all three of those requirements.
15)Financing in place for more than a year.
16)Current expansion of space and addition of new employs for manufacturing and testing fortells likey moving towards increased engagement with manufacturing partners and potential customers who need test results.

Cons:
1)LWLG has a long history of not having a product that the market was ready to embrace.
2)Multiple large and well known companies failed to produce an effective and stable electrooptic polymer.
3)There are many large competitors focusing on competing devices using additions to legacy technology. These devices however will have difficulty addressing the triad of faster, lower power and smaller device size.
4)There is a lack of transparency as LWLG states it is working under muliple NDAs. So far, LWLG has not named partners in commercialization.
5)The current market does not favor small, non revenue companies.
6)Statements made regarding commercialization in the past did not happen as yet.
7)Short sellers will likey hold the price down in response to positive news and have been successful in this regard in the past year more often than not.

Taking stock as an investor in potential risks and benefits should be a periodic exercise. I am not a professional investor but looking at the pros and cons as well as progress in all areas over the past year I like LWLG's chances here in 2023.

Some have questioned Dr. Lebby's ability and readiness to lead LWLG as CEO noting he is just a tech guy. If one actually looks at his extensive CV on LinkedIn there is impressive evidence as to his knowledge in photonics and experience as well.

Research- Early in his carreer he worked at Bell Labs on developing photonics and then Motorola as a Research and Development Manager bringing new technology (VCELS) from the lab to production and beginning commercialization. VCELS are laser technology used in many different tech uses today. He has over 450 utility patents (about 200 US and the rest worldwide.) Utility patents are a big deal as they speak to manufacture or use of devices as opposed to design patents which are not as technical and are more about appearance. This is not likely counting recent LWLG patents we have seen in the last few months.

Business- He has been a CEO of start ups, Ignis Optics which was taken over by Bookham Tech and One Chip Photonics. He has been involved in venture capital in his 2 years at Intel Capital which specializes in startups and developmental companies. He has helped such small companies with financing and other developmental issues. He has been on the board of directors of at least 10 companies thus getting involved in business planning. He has a lot of experience with finances of smaller companies in the industry.

Government Liaison- For many years he has been a consultant to the European Commission in the area of photonics. The European Commission is executive to the European Union as the European Commision initiates and enforces laws and develops policies for the EU to follow. He has on many occasions consulted with Congress in the same manner. Obviously lawmakers want his input on where the industry should go. For several years he was president of the Optoelectronics Business Development Association representing the industry to the US government to educate and expand the industry.

Education- He is a professor of photonics at Glyndwr University in the UK. He was chairman of that department in the past. He has been part of over 200 conferences in the past. He has testified numerous times as an expert witness in court cases on technical issues in the field.

This is a summary of his wide experience in business and government liaison issues in the industry as well as managing emerging technology and the finance of it in smaller companies. He has experienced most of the pitfalls small companies encounter in bringing new technology into the market place in his role as an investor, board director and CEO. He certianly isn't just a "Lab Nerd" and he certainly is not a crook as some have suggested on this board. It is clear that when he talks people listen.

Things LWLG are coming to a head. Dr. Lebby is making clear public statements about successes in poling, stability and production of wafers at scale in the foundry process. He is stating that contracts with partners are "near term". He has an exemplary reputation as a scientist and leader in the photonics field.

Despite all this, several doubts about his credibility continues to be spread on IHUB by a growing group of naysayers repeating over and over themes that do not run true. In response to reports of the progress made by LWLG over the past 10 months the negative theme is that there is no reported contract yet so it means LWLG will fail. In response to Dr. Lebby's reporting rational step by step achievements leading to foundry production success (which requires reliable PDK's) the only retort by naysayers is he is lying to us to keep his job and get money. He by no means is an Elizabeth Holmes who came out of no where with supposed groudbreaking technology to defraud people. Dr. Lebby has had decades of success with photonics and polymer research and is seen by colleagues as a visionary. Anyone who is spreading doubt such as this can only be here for their own gain.

Naysayers will state the technology just won't work and this has been repeated over and over again on this board with no scientific reasons why it won't. How could they know. They DON'T HAVE PERKINAMINE TO TEST OR KNOW OF ANYONE WHO DOES. You can't say other people couldn't do it and make that the basis of the arguement and be correct.You have to know when you you are being fed bad information.

It has taken many years for LWLG to get to this point. I have been a shareholder for almost 2 years now. I have looked at their history going back several years and remain impressed by the slow and methodical work to solve one problem after another in the manufacturing of wafers applying an organic poymer in the manufacturing process. Unfortunately IT MUST TAKE TIME. It feels like watching paint dry but the reality is that to solve even one problem it takes trial and error and a lot of testing and re testing. Then the testing and tweeking the PDK has to happen at a foundry partner. Eventually testing at the customer level has to occur. Because it takes time doesn't mean commercialization won't happen.

Over the past 2 weeks the volume of negative posters has been overwhelming saying the same old stuff. This appeared to follow Dr. Lebby's statement about contracts being "near term".Twenty million shorts! Some people are sweating but it isn't me. We are on track.

There likely is many companies who don't know enough about what
LWLG has accomplished and they remain focused on current products and future enhanced products of their own. If it is true that large data center customers are asking their foundry partners to work with LWLG and if production runs well at scale (as Dr. Lebby has stated) the next step is customer sampling of product. It is likely happening already. Moving down the line would be asking large network equipment makers to consider incorporating these excellent fast speed low power modulators in their products as data centers are the big customers and they are direct about their needs. This is a significant driver to make large equipment companies like Arista to come on board. Competitors are future customers.

Ted, it is true that LWLG isn't a transceiver company. I believe you well know that the modulator chips utilizing LWLG technology will make transceivers function as transceivers for the partner companies LWLG will be working with. You seem to be nit picking to just make a point.

Ted, you said Arista is not a competitor for LWLG because they make software. That is not correct. They among other things make optical transceivers for data centers and plan to introduce their own 400G and 800G optical transceivers into the market. That makes them a direct competitor to LWLG.

It is ridiculous going back and forth about what was talked about at lunch between Andy B and Michael Lebby. Nobody on this board knows real details.The only thing that is obvious is that Andy B is staying with the roadmap making the best out of legacy technology and remains skeptical about polymers being successful. At the end of the day Arista and LWLG are competitors at least in what will power optical devices in the future. That will limit any deep dive into LWLG commercialization plans at this time.

Coming soon to a screen near you from LWLG.

It is easy to short small companies with relatively low floats and no or negative earnings in the current environment we have been in the past year with increasing interest rates and the war in Ukraine. An aggressive Fed has raised interest rates faster than any other time in the past 40 years. Rising interest rates give short sellers a lot of cover to do what they do and they make money in this environment if they cover at the right time. There are a ton of small companies having their share price pushed down in this more cautious environment especially if they have much debt and need to borrow more in the future..

Short sellers of LWLG are at a nose bleed level with over 30 days to cover IF they are lucky. Greed has kept them locked in. Shorts who start buying shares to cover will lead to a rapid rise in price as there will not be enough sellers to accomodate at low prices. I believe fear on the part of shorts has been mounting as we get closer to news as evidenced by the increase in new negative posters over the past couple months and the higher frequency of negative posts.

I believe we will start hearing more details of success ie positive information on production runs at foundries, additional patents to add to the moat, expanding uses of the polymers for future applications, identifying transceiver parters in advance of commercial launch and especially starting to report details of royalty and tech transfer deals.

It has been a rough year with the shorts in control. With the number of shorts posting now with the share price not far from the low for the year suggests their tension is building and we are close to a large turn for the good.

Faster, less complicated modulators that are smaller and lower power will win out. I suspect less costly as well. The market will love all of that when it is revealed.

Future, I listened and heard the same words from the representatives from Intel and Dell. What I heard was alot of certainty about their positions that they had the right solutions for next generation transeivers using CMOS and co-packaged optics with many slow lanes bundled together. They do speak from long experience producing devices that are now focused on next generation modulators and transceivers. They have researched, modified manufacturing and tested and re-tested such equipment to improve device performance for an upcoming generation of devices. They sounded very locked into their programs which have likely taken a couple years to get to this point to introduce new transceivers with many slow lanes (even more modulator chips than before) into the market. End users want this they say. I don't doubt that but not all of them know what else might be coming down the pike, especially if they hear the narrative that polymers are not reliable.
What I heard was 100% certainty that they had it right and LWLG had it wrong. It sounded like a sell job to me. Intel and Dell sounded almost anxious to get across to folks that they had it right. Intel is set up to run great volume wafers and are locked into that based on preparing for an upcoming sell cycle. They are highly motivated to sell their large number of chips to run all those slow lanes in an effort to go faster. I have been on the receiving end of many sales pitches over the years and I am skeptical when hearing such a sales pitch that will mean increased volume of electronics and likely alot more cost for the seller's benefit. It's a great thing if you can get away with it. I seriously doubt they know all the details of what LWLG has done and how well the performance and stability has tested out as being. I do believe there are NDA's in place that prevents that. They know they will still have the majority of the market in 2024 so they can say what they say now. LWLG is likely working with small foundries they can prepare their equipment to meet the needs of new products being introduced into the market that will likely grow into a bigger market when end users see what really works better than legacy equipment. Intel has said they will "wait and see". Until LWLG's modulators and transceivers gain traction, big foundries like Intel won't commit. They cannot afford to bet their reputation on a new company's revolutionary product until the market embraces it. Intel has a history of too much complacency and that is why they have been leap frogged in the past.

Your name and reasons for the failure of LWLG suggest I could get burned following your advise.

You open up a new layer I have wondered about with LWLG possibly working with our Military on integrated optics on chips. It only stands to reason that military applications to the polymer technology would have to exist. Ususally the Military will be early adopters of faster and better applications in the area of communications. They were early in research in development of the internet.

We sometimes complain about lack of specifics due to the company working with NDA's. Well if you talk about secrets who has more of them than the Military. KC had highlighted a NIST update communication on this thread a couple months ago talking about working with a number of companies besides LWLG such as Raytheon, Northrup Grumann, AIM photonics IBM, Corning, Hughes Labs as well as some others. Hughes Labs by the way invented the first laser I believe in the 60's. The update suggests NIST works with them but doesn't say whether any of these companies work together. NDA's are frustrating but it leaves us all to think.

If you want to read the update again you can just Google NIST CTL Nov 17 2022 and it will pop up.

I very much agree that LWLG has a big answer to the energy use problem of data centcenters.
The hyperscalers are getting pressure from government, climate control activists and importantly from their customers. Customers are moving towards the big data centers with the best energy conservation records. The hyperscalers have promised to be carbon neutral by 2030. That only works as they move to greentech solutions that give them credits against the electricity they consume by generation from coal or natural gas and if they can use electricity more efficently. As data centers move towards greentech solutions it is more costly that utilizing electricity the old fashioned way. It is also isn't an easy fix. It is not as practical as it sounds as they have to be in a region close to wind farms or frequent access to sunlight. This discounts the majority of the developed world. Hydropower is already being used near a maximum level to generate electricity. According to Peter Zeihan a geopolitical strategist and consultant to energy companies, universities and the U.S. Military, the U.S. gets 40 percent of its electricity from natural gas and 19 percent from coal. Natural gas is more expensive outside of the U.S. based on supply and access. European data centers are even more desperate to move to greentec. Cost matters. China where so very much world manufacturing occurs ( including Tesla's Lithium batteries) gets its energy almost entirely from coal burning plants and that is a huge problem that we depend on them to manufacture so many things for us and the world. Alot of CO2 originates in China.

This all comes down to the energy problem for data centers is huge. They are desperately searching for complicated and costly solutions. They need to keep costs down and need to move to greentec when available. The least costly is is to USE Less Electricity. We know that moving to LWLG modulators can lower power by a factor of 10X. Voltage needed for modulators to function has been coming down from estimates a year ago with research advancements the company has been making. The story keeps getting better. Fast modulators are great and so is smaller size but you can't beat less power which saves you alot of money and makes it easier, using less electricity, to get to carbon neutral by 2030.

It is unlikey that a foundry could successfully manufacture perkinamine.
Foundries aren't chemical companies so they don't have the talent. Even if they came close it wouldn't work as well as The Real Thing.

I disagree that it is too time consuming for Dr. Lebby to be presenting at industry conferences. He is an accomplished speaker and alrerady knows the information he presents in great detail so there is little preparation time. His presentations largely rehash the same information (he uses mostly the same slides). He will occassionally have one or two nuggets of information that are new like recent suggestion that they are ahead of past guidelines on a readiness to move to faster optics once their planned rollout of 800 Gig products are released into the market next year. Not every conference is the same and always appeals to some different listeners in the market even though many people have heard the information before. We have taken the conferences in and over time we appreciate things are continuing to move forward. Anybody listening would appreciate that fact and that the company is still on track with its timeframe to have its partnered products into the marketplace. His particiation in conferences does have travel time involved however how valuable is the time spent in one on one conversations with leaders in the technology area that can benefit from what LWLG can do as well as answering complex questions needed for their better understanding? I would say lots.

Sometimes it takes our government a while, sometimes years, to wake up to competetive challenges from other countries. This is because the U.S. as a country has had no equal in many areas and is slow to recognize advancements in comparison to other countries due to its complacency. The American role since Bretton Woods following WWII has been one of guaranteeing open markets for all and encouraging technological advancements in other countries to rebuild economies following the devastation the world experienced from the fighting in WWII. We came out of WWII as the supreme industrial and technological leader. Globalization along with free trade has allowed other countries to catch up and at times surpass us in areas. China is in the process of doing that but when The U.S. wakes up to a challenge that can threaten our security things get done and fairly quickly. Look back on how the space race started when Russia raced ahead of us and how it ended with Russia mostly left behind.
We are in a competetive race with China in the area of advanced technologies. Legislation has been passed to encourage industrial advancement and we are really interested in The Chip Act. Funds will be allocated to semiconductor related technologies to help advance the faster and best chips. LWLG could apply and possibly get some funding to speed development. The United States is facing a serious competetive challenge with China. How it addresses vaulting ahead of China is the new "Sputnik moment" for America.

Things are bubbling below the surface with our company. Over the last few months we have heard from Dr. Lebby about progress with foundries, partners and potential customers. We know there is expansion underway for space and PhD new employs to aid with testing. Some have said this means our technology is not ready and things need to be fixed but that is not so. Dr. Lebby has told us that the PDK's work and produce consistent samples in high volume that meet specifications for function and stability. The testing appears to be ramping up to satisfy customers that the modulators will work in their systems. Arguements have continued around the issue of which partners are involved from the level of foundries to transceiver manufacturers and to end users such as data centers. We don't know the specifics and some posters use this to spread uncertainty to scare people from investing. We have been reminded repeatedly that all this work is under Non-Disclosure Agreements.

Non-Disclosure Agreements are used in many industries and are for many different reasons but most come down to competitive reasons. Tthe technology industry is likely the most competetive industry out there. A company may have solved important problems and are finalizing patent applications or are preparing for the introduction of the technology into the market under a specific timeline with partners. This company may be working on products in new areas for future commercialization. These are some reasons LWLG will work with a NDA. Their partners have their own competitive reasons and need protection on their trade secrets so it is mutually benecial to one extent or another. There are significant problems spelled out in the NDA that an individual or a company faces when an NDA is breached with penalties and lawsuits the outcome. This is a big deal and must be adhered to. It is likely the NDA spells out when a final agreement or announcement of an agreement is made.

We will continue to hear from naysayers that the lack of disclosure of specific partners means the company is deceptive but consider that in the context of new progress made in solving commercialization problems that Dr. Lebby has revealed thus far. Consider this in context of hearing other companies saying they need to move on to technology that is much faster, use much less power and is many magnitudes smaller in footprint. I for one put the pieces of progress that is increasingly coming out of the company in context with an understanding of the nature and wide use of NDA's. I am not a lawyer but I looked for a good summary of issues associated with the use of NDA's and found this webpage. I couldn't set it up as a link but you cantype it in to get to the webpage with a good summary on NDA's.
www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nda.asp

There has been no VC interest in the past because the complexity of the technology is hard for most people to understand. The company wasn't up for sale. They knew they needed to finish the job of making the technology ready for prime time. We are alot closer to that than ever before.

Day in and day out there is debate back and forth on this message board about whether LWLG has technology that is real and could be successful. The doubters have expanded their attacks on Lebby, perkinamine, market acceptance and continue to deride the technology. One has only to reflect on history to appreciate that great inventions are often met with skepticism, doubt and derision. This happens because something that has never been seen before is met with disbelief until it is demonstrated extensively and gradually people come around.
Remember "Fulton's Folly"? The Wright Brothers were repeatedly laughed at. The majority of people laughed off light bulbs as they started to come out as well as vaccines and personal computers. When The I Phone was first introduced people asked "what no buttons? " In 2007 Steve Balmer from Microsoft said it had "no chance" of taking over the smartphone market.
One can only know if one learns as much as one can on any given topic. I have been buying LWLG for the past 18 months as I have studied the company and technology using all sources available. I am well behind but there are market forces holding this back.I have concluded that Dr. Lebby is an excellent communicator and has been forecasting events during conferences that subsequently come true. The semiconductor industry is just about the most technologically complicated industry out there and it requires testing and retesting advancements. We don't like baby steps. But from baby steps comes walking and then running.