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Nic...Certainly you must know by now that before- and after-market trading is nothing but tape-painting.
Also, with a revenue run rate of about $500M per year, even if we got 2% on their entire sales, it would only be $10m per year. Very small fish.
OD....Maybe, maybe not. In saying that you doubt he is still concerned (about IDCC stock), are you agreeing that he (unduly) was?
The reason IDCC made the statement of "substantial progress" is that they believed they had a deal. Rick Simonson pulled the rug out at the last moment and apparently enjoyed saying that he wasn't as optimistic as investors (in IDCC). How often do you hear a CFO of a major company make a statement about a particular day's trading in another company's stock? The answer is that he was very tuned into IDCC's stock price and was (maybe still is) involved in the suppression (i.e., manipulation) of IDCC's stock. AIMO.
With the end of the SA evaluation and the amended strategy of the Company going forward, I believe increased dividends, one-time dividends and increased buybacks are all on the table.
I am also in the camp that feels one or more fairly significant deals will emerge from the "process", and soon.
AMC...I agree 100%. IMO, we will see a deal with INTC or other chip company in the short term.
BandG....Are you trying to represent that this an RS tweet? Easy to see that it isn't. Nice try.
dndodd..What hasn't been said? eom.
OD...The other obvious explanation is desperate tape-painting by the shorts. JMO.
AMR...OT...Very true. There is absolutely no place for anyone in the market who does any kind of fundamental analysis and is a long term investor. Sad, but true.
Paheka..So true. I retired from the business in 2008, probably 3 years before I wanted to due to exactly what you are talking about. If the average investor knew how often and how much he was getting ripped off, hedgies and other miscreants would be the only people left in the market.. IMO.
Eric Shin... The markets are set up for this to happen. It is ridiculous but certainly not uncommon. IMO.
Has2be2004...Very good and interesting analysis. Thank you. eom.
Has2be2004...OT.....Sorry for the tardy reply. I've been fishing in the Keys for a few days.
I really don't want to make an issue of the timing of the 10K. But, I do want address your post.
Contrary to your assertion, there are several instances in my posts where I said "I believe" or "IMO". Whenever one makes a statement, on this board or otherwise, without including a specific cite to corroborate his statement, I automatically assume it is an opinion. It only makes sense (IMO).
Additionally, I specifically said that my opinion was based on my understanding of Fair Disclosure regulations.
While prospective acquirers are privy to information that is not public, under an NDA, I continue to believe that when a deal is finally done, all of that non-public information will have to be disclosed. And, I believe it will happen before a deal is consummated.
Let's take an extreme example: Suppose a deal is announced on January 2. If the timing of the 10k has no bearing on the sale process, then IDCC could wait until March 9, or so, to file the 10K. Anyone interested in obtaining a Fairness Opinion would certainly, rightfully, be entitled to demand the information included therein. So where does one draw the line? In my OPINION, I think the 10K will precede a buyout announcement.
As I have said numerous times on this board. I do not need to be right and I don't care if I'm wrong. Like everyone else here I try to contribute, based on the total of my particular experience. I'm totally in it for the money.
GL
Blue Tower...I suggest you read the thread between F6 and myself . There is a difference of opinion between us on this subject. The only potential downside to an investor, if I am correct, would be that January and maybe February options would be an imprudent play. For that matter, in general, I've learned that any naked option plays are imprudent. For those who hold stock only, the entire discussion between F6 and myself is moot. A deal will happen when/if it does.
Good Luck.
F6 This is OT at this point. There are many of us here who have had long and meaningful careers in and around the securities/business environments. Notwithstanding your experience in mergers, etc., I stand by my original assertion.
I object to your characterization of my opinion as "nonsense" and then have the gall to say that if the 10K is indeed filed before the announcement of a deal that it is still nonsense. You can't have it both ways. Can we agree on this?: If a deal is announced and the 10K is filed, say, 3 weeks later then you are right. If the 10K is filed and a deal is announced within a week, then I think you would have to reconsider your position.
In any case, IF you are long I wish you the best.
F6....if a deal gets done after the 10K has been filed, it will not be because of (the timing of) that filing
Talk about "nonsense"! If this happens, no one will ever know whether what you are saying is correct.
F6...We shall see. eom.
F6....Question: Do you think that parties interested in a purchase of the company would like to be aware of the Q4 numbers as well as any developments that may have occurred before they ink a deal? If the answer is "yes", then I believe, under FD regs, that these factors will have to be made public.
Nic....There goes Jan & Feb options. Yes, that may be the case. However, it is possible that they could do the 10K a lot quicker. Especially given the fact that there is a one quarter delay in reporting revenues. They already pretty much know what the quarter's revs are and they could easily do most of the commentary and other disclosures without waiting for the end of the year. I am hoping this is the case, but if it isn't we could be looking at another couple of months.
Nic..."IDCC will be forced by law to give a quarterly report." To be more precise the next report due is an annual report (10K) for which they have 70 days to report. In the past, they have used most of those days to file. If the SA is concluded shortly after the end of the year, it will be interesting to see how fast they can get it to together, as the 10K will have to filed before any announcement of a deal. IMO.
4th Quarter guidance. Anybody have IDCC's history of 4th quarter guidance? If it were to be announced, around what date is it likely to be, based on history? TIA.
Trading is eerily thin. Lull before the storm? eom.
gatticaa......through in the Intel, Youtube presentation concerning bandwidth management that is almost an exact duplicate of one done by IDCC and we have yet more dots that could be connected.
DR....thanks for that info. Explains a lot. eom.
Bent...Further....I would be concerned if there were only one potential bidder because they could easily bag out of the negotiations and get the company cheaper in hostile fashion. I think reasonable people know that the value of the IP would be beneficial to a number of companies. In this scenario, the potential buyers would have to collude in order to derail the "auction" process. Even in this corrupt era, that isn't going to happen.
dmiller....OT....You could have written, "when/if an announcement of a deal comes. Apparently, for you, I should have.
When or "if" an annoucement comes? You sound like there is no chance a deal won't happen.
I don't know where you get this. My comment was germane to the discussion of whether or not a 200% could happen. Obviously, if there is no sale then the "200 %" discussion is moot.
dmiller......Don't agree. There is a huge disconnect between the value of IDCC's IP and the stock price, largely due to the constant manipulation, through shorting and option hedges.
In the final analysis, IDCC is worth what the present value, on a DCF basis, of their IP is to an entity that has enough clout to extract industry-standard fees from licensees. It would not surprise me in the least if it is $120. It might be 200% from here, but let's wait and see what the SP is when an announcement of a deal comes.
BandG....Actually it would be a 200% premium. eom.
Shuttleworth.......I have heard he has a note out today. Has it been posted or does anyone have it?
TIA.
lmfao.....Yes, Actually $9.7M preferred. I was referring to the amount left over for the equity holders (about 18M shares). So yes, the TOTAL price would have to be $16-20M, before payment of debt. Sorry for the confusion.
Punkin6111...I, too, believe an announcement of a sale will happen before the end year, for different reasons. IMO, if it doesn't happen then it will have to be several weeks, maybe more into the new year. Reason being, the latest financial results will have to be made public before such announcement. The current deadline for announcing year end results is 70 days (I think). So, it would become a matter of how quickly IDCC can get their numbers together before announcing a deal. In other words, if it doesn't happen by 12/31, look for the January options to have been a bad bet. JMO
lmfao1234......I agree with the potential valuation you mention. However, as I said in a previous post, they are not in a position of strength to command that price, IMO. I'm thinking $6-10M, or $.30-60 per share. I'd love to be pleasantly surprised by more.
Junk........IMO, whatever is happening now is known only by the BOD. I'm quite sure the surviving officers at BJCT are not in on the process. The FDA meeting is important to the ongoing valuation of the Company in terms of passing along the potential to an acquirer, but it is too late for it to be meaningful to the existing entity.
OT.....HenryW...Reminds me of when I was in the brokerage business. I had 2 or 3 clients who were so perennially wrong that I used them as one of my top, contrary, indicators.
There is no question that there will be a buyout. The FDA "communication" recommending needle-free NOT be used for flu shots was the final straw. The company has little cash and few prospects for business; the CEO has left in order to conserve cash. The only thing left is the value of the technology and the associated IP. The company MUST be sold and, IMO, it will be sooner than later.
Junk.. Yes. That is my opinion. eom.
Junk...Actually, I think the stock goes out at $.30-.60. The mid-point of $.45 is about the $7.5M you mentioned.
Junk....IMO, someone is trying to buy as much cheap stock as possible before a tender offer. Even if BJCT straightens out their issues with the FDA, they don't have enough $$$ to last another 6 months. This stock will be gone within 2 months, IMO.
Romuluss...You may end up being correct. But, IMO, the continued short term pressure on the stock is being applied in order to load up on options. There are over 6 million shares worth of January options that are out-of the-money. When a special situation, such as a buyout, exists, I have found that the SP does not necessarily follow the market.