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Mr. Park Here is an "Explanation"
I have bought at .03 and sold twice at .16 and .47
My real cost basis is 0. Why on earth would I sell my remaining, paid for holdings and risk new money (albeit profits) on a position at a higher price? What happens if I buy $50,000 more worth of MJNA at .16 and the stock dips to .03? Say goodbye to any profits.
I am in MJNA because I have been involved in cannabis for 2 decades, growing, selling and consuming. I do not want to miss out on an opportunity to LEGALLY invest in cannabis and have bought shares in several MMJ companies. But I do not like these stocks for trading because while the share price is low enough to buy big lots, the liquidity is often not there to move the lots.
Did MJNA Really Dip to .02 Today?
WTF happened there? That does not bode well.
Because I Am Not Trading MJNA
I'm already in at a great price and I am playing with house money. I bought MJNA at .03 so I don't think I can get back in at a better price just yet.
I'm sorry to say but these "weed stocks" really are not the best trading vehicles. Some days the volume is barely over 1m shares and in order to make any good money, I would be buying 100,000 share lots but its not easy to move that on low volume.
I'm Down but Not Out
I got in so low on MJNA and have already made profits that I will be holding MJNA for an indefinite amount of time.
But that is not to say I am pleased with the performance. Earnings aside, I think management is a bunch of clowns. Michelle Sides posting on this message board was my first red flag. Months without a CEO, PR retractions, poorly handled legal issues and a host of other reasons have me very disappointed. The numbers are really not what bother me, I just don't think the leadership is in place to bring this company to a billion dollar market cap.
The cannabis movement is as strong as it has ever been. If MJNA is the market leader, they need to act like it by being professional and keeping their stuff tight.
Look at the Chart - MJNA Dipped to .02?????
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MJNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p08593369940
Yesterday, MJNA blasted through the top bollinger, bringing it nearly 2 std devs outside of the ma. That requires a strong pullback to get the share price into a realistic range. Today's pullback was nothing special.
What I find most odd is the drop to .02? I don't have the time to look but I wonder how many shares traded at that low?
Holder Info with Links - "A Broken System"
Interesting quotes in the links below. I haven't seen the whole transcript but the quotes point to "a dialogue" on reforming the justice system and a handing over certain criminal matters to states. It is entirely possible by 2014 election cycle, other states may follow CO and WA in recreational legalization. Already, almost half the Nation's states have legal MMJ.
Truth is, the recreational, THC market isn't where the real money is in the weeds. It's not even the medicinal market. It's the industrial applications; plastics, fuels, textiles/apparel, building material and just so much more. MJNA has the hemp connections and could easily be approached by a manufacturer to purchase large quantities of hemp or even just straight bought out.
So many possibilities. The Holder stuff is only a snowflake in an avalanche.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/12/eric-holder-mandatory-minimum_n_3744575.html
http://videos.huffingtonpost.com/eric-holders-drug-reform-proposal-517892025
iHub MJNA Board Followers Increase from 1248 to 1310
Over just this weekend.
We're floating towards the mainstream
WE'RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER BOAT!
Katano MJNA Needs to Revenue
Projections of $155m for 2014 need to be proven or at least backed up with a great quarter before this company can reach $1b market cap.
Personally, I don't think management would have a clue how to handle a company of that size.
Thats a Good Price GV
The biggest gap was the .0035 from a few months back and that is the fill I was waiting for before buying again. The action on this stock is pretty weak. Its not a good day trader considering the entire daily volume is often less than $10,000 worth of stock traded.
These Raids are Insane
I have some friends in LA who have a dispensary that has been raided 4 times in their existence. Heres the kicker about the raids;
the feds come in, tear up the joint, take the cash and product, the leave without charging anyone just like a street level thug jacking the place with a streetsweeper.
But to hear that the Feds are doing it in a state that is legal is ludicrous. The Feds are exposing the government to some serious liability.
Reminders of MJNA Potential: The Three Sectors
Recreational
There has been a lot of fuss made about MJNA not being involved in the THC game. At this point, there is no definitive confirmation that MJNA is not profiting from THC. Yes, the company disclosed they are not involved in THC sales BUT that does not mean they are not making in-roads. In fact, MJNA may very well just not be disclosing any revenue like other mmj companies. Either way, the domestic black market for cannabis is estimated between $40-125,000,000,000. Just a small portion of that could put MJNA through the roof
Medical
Some drugs pull in as much as $10,000,000,000 annually and that is only for one specific ailment. CBDs and THC can treat an enormous breadth of ailments, from epilepsy, to fighting cancer cells, to anxiety, to insomnia, to you-name-it......treatment for each of those illnesses are $100,000,000,000 markets alone but CBDs and THC crossover so many treatments that their value is nearly priceless. MJNA is a leader in CBD delivery and the company is affiliated with a well known THC proprietor.
Industrial
While much hype has been made about the medical and recreational markets, it is perhaps the industrial market that holds the most potential. Hemp can be used for fuel, textiles, food, nutritional supplements, industrial materials like plastic/rope/paper......Similar to the medical markets, there are so many endless industrial applications that there could be literally trillion dollar markets disrupted by hemp.
MJNA is well positioned in all three sectors. While I think the projections of 233pps are ludicrous, maybe there is a chance considering the multiple $100b markets hemp and cannabis could disrupt.
Now We Wait for Earnings
The Gupta news provided a nice gust for the sails. Holder wasn't much but if you read between the lines, the easing on drug policy paves the way for future change.
The next catalyst is earnings. I don't really expect to see any blowout quarter but there should be insight into CanChew numbers and hopefully some clarity of past issues.
The old adage "buy the news sell the rumor" has been thrown around, and while I advocate protecting profits, I think now is the time to hold tight. Cannabis is going through a major renaissance and MJNA is the best play so far
Navy - Advestising on TV Costs Millions
To produce a broadcast TV commercial that doesn't look like the local car dealship ads in Des Moines can cost at least $250k. Major advertisers like Coke spend millions for just one single ad. And that's just to hire the filming crew. It's another chunk of change to hire a creative team, or after filming, there's the post production process.
And none of that factors the ads buys. It's $250k at the very least for 30 seconds on even just a late night cable show and as much as $1mil for 30 secs for a spot during a popular TV show.
I'd love to help MJNA in these respects considering this is my currently my source of employment. Unfortunately, my day rate is probably not something MJNA could afford.
MJNA's Perfect Storm: Gupta, Holder and Q2 Earnings
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
But I'd be sure to buy and hold a few shares. This is an exciting time for an emerging industry.
Gupta is a potential candidate for US Surgeon General and is using a global mainstream media outlet to present his medical opinion on medical marijuana, a view contradictory to his previous stance. This makes me think the mainstream media is in the fight to promote cannabis reform. Could you imagine this type of programming 30 years ago when the "Dare" campaigns plagued the media?
Who knows what Holder has in store for us? There is no doubt the federal government needs to align itself with states as legitimate businesses, patients, and many others are in limbo due to the inaction. Federal raids of dispensaries are appalling because the authorities seize money and products often without ever charging the targets of these raids. That makes the DEA and other authorities no different than the criminals who would walk in with shotguns to rob a joint.
Q2 earnings should be interesting. I am most interested in the numbers, to see if there is clarity to the revenue sources and how those sources are performing. An accurate disclosure of outstanding shares would also be nice. Then, and only then can one get a good fundamental projection as to true value of MJNA shares. The .05-233pps figures thrown around here are all based on opinion as there are no real numbers to back that up. Even if we used the companies own projections of $155m revenues in 2014, the share count is so vastly different (950m to 5b), extracting share price estimates based on those numbers is useless.
Some more clarity regarding relationships, how revenues are reported and personnel changes would be nice.
Batten the hatches cause the seas are gonna be rough.
WE'RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER BOAT!!!
Definitely Not In the Charts
The fall from .50 to .095 was in the charts. The parabolic rise to .50 was due to fundamental hyping and was clearly unsustainable. There were gaps at .18, .12 and .09, all three being levels where MJNA briefly stopped as the stock declined over the past few months. Each level was in sync with Fibonacci retracements. I posted those numbers back in March when MJNA was at .35.
But Fridays rip was totally fundamental. Gupta's reversal was mostly unseen, rattling the cages around the MJ concerns, and the rumors of a reform speech from Holder tomorrow are spinning the wheels. Who knows where this leads to but technical analysis has nothing to do with it at this point.
I probably won't watch Gupta's special since there isn't much that he can say that hasn't already been endlessly discussed here, amongst friends, on other media....but the national exposure is great. Coupled with the Eric Holder rumors, the excitement is here momentarily, perhaps too much.
MJNA needs strong, informed shareholders not pumpers, bashers, pie-eyed numbers projections. The .05 projections are based on regurgitated opinions back by zero financial numbers. And the 235pps projections are based on even less credible analysis.
But the industry is emerging, exciting and seems to be heading in a good direction for long shareholders.
The optimistic side of me wants to think there is a perfect storm brewing here:
Gupta's reversal and the mainstream publicity
Holder announcing reform to marijuana laws
Q2 EARNINGS COMING OUT THIS WEEK
But we all know the adage "buy the rumors, sell the news".
I have tempered expectations for this week but things are heating up.
GVI ERBB is a Lottery Ticket Stock
Who knows if this company has profits or what the revenue structure or how many shares are truly outstanding? The company is pretty fuzzy. This message board does not have the best information and doesn't have the "credibility" of other companies.
The vending machine idea is interesting in recreationally legal states and supposedly ERBB has a presence in one of those states, Colorado, through Altitude Organics, a retail dispensary. The OneBode relationship is interesting but unclear. The RFID cannabis tracking stuff is compelling especially if it can be contracted on a state level to regulate cannabis. The Yo! Card is also another facet of the company but again, there is little clarity. Lastly there is the MRI machines?
It's a mixed bag with the hook being the company's involvement in direct revenue from THC. But it's a lottery pick, you gotta be in it to win it, but you gotta manage your expectations.
FYI I Bought It at 28 Pre-Split
In 2005. And I'm in with MJNA at .03 and .18. I was going to get more at .09 but the dip to .095 was so quick I couldn't get a fill.
MJNA could possibly see .50 before the years end. Very likely even higher next year with election cycles and political attention. MMJ is very much a states rights issue which could make for interesting cross-party support. Hemp is a great issue for agricultural states and their politicians. Unfortunately the liquor and tobacco industries line the politicians pockets, but cannabis and hemp could be billion dollar players.
But all this talk of $230pps is ludicrous. Comparing to aaple or medbx is just wrong because the former is a totally different juggernaut and the latter has a completely different share structure
Not Even Going There
That like comparing apples to aircraft carriers! As an shareholder of both companies, I can only giggle at the comparison.
When MJNA earns $40billion in profit annually off $140biilion in annual revenue then we can talk.
Rat Love the Enthusiasm - The Cannabis Renaissance
MMJ, cannabis, and hemp are all experiencing a renaissance. In high school I had a teacher in NY who had us discuss California's Prop 215, as he thought it was groundbreaking social and political change. Of course, as a young goofy kid just learning about the many uses for cannabis, me and my classmates were more interested in the comedic approach to the subject. Today, with the benefit of hindsight, I am astounded by how this has all played out. There are two things I never thought I'd see in my life;
A black president
Marijuana legalization
In less than 5 years, my expectations have been shattered. What a great country!
But seriously, cannabis prohibition is coming to an end. Anyone who downplays the significance of the Gupta reversal is a fool or trying to fool you. Gupta is a likely candidate for US Surgeon General. He works for a massive global communications network and he has the scoop on the change in public opinion, therefore he is likely positioning himself politically by coming out as pro-cannabis.
MJNA needs to, and very possibly may already be profiting from cannabis. While CBD and industrial hempmis where i think the bulk of enterprise exsists, THC is where the money is at right now. The company needs to develop brands like Dixie across legal states. In 5-10 years when the public is better educated, CBDs hold enormous pharmaceutical and nutritional potential, as do industrial applications of hemp.
MJNA's biggest threat is now less the federal government, but competition from major established entities like the liquor industry, the pharmaceutical industry, the tobacco industry, the plastic industry.........
But Rat, a $200b market in 5 years is just not possible. Period. I like Perry's writings but that number is no realistic. With current share structure, management, assets, forward earnings projections.....$10/share is a high end target over the next few year and even that is a long shot.
Nevertheless, I'm pretty happy with my MJNA shares and the current state of affairs.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta's New Special on "Weed"
http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2013/08/05/gupta-weed-promo.cnn
Zero Medical Value Huh Mr. Holder?
http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/07/health/charlotte-child-medical-marijuana/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Zero Medical Value Huh Mr. Holder?
http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/07/health/charlotte-child-medical-marijuana/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Dr. Sanjay Gupta's New Special on "Weed"
http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2013/08/05/gupta-weed-promo.cnn
Thats Great, BUT
Here's the deal, lots of growers can grow, harvest, cure, extract their high CBD strains, putting in all the work but as medical states come online, many entrepreneurs are not going to want to develop their own strains, extract their own concentrates.....they just want to set up shop and have a go at it. P
Additionally, an already established brand like Dixie could offer dispensary owners more competitive prices on goods than a startup. MJNA could build relationships with interested parties across the USA, helping share in production costs. Instead of setting up shop in each state, the company would likely provide the recipes then contract out the production and slap their logo on the bottles in the same way Coke does.
Whole Foods, Ford, New York Times could attempt to develop their own materials instead of sourcing them, but as business expands, it becomes cost/time prohibitive to handle it internally and makes far more sense to outsource for said items.
Clearly MJNA is keeping the THC info close to their chest. Take a look at what happened to Shivley when he claimed he wanted to develop the first major MJ brand.
All Recent Gaps Have Been Closed
9 months of gaps have been closed
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERBB&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p30874823775
Grand Deflation
I was expecting .0035 because there was a prior gap in that range but the drop below is a little disconcerting. I like to buy when there is blood in the streets.
I picked up a few to average down. I am wondering if this is a complete breakdown or if there is something in the works? Granted this is a pink sheet and disclosure is not always provided with clarity.
PCB that is a $3-5b Market Cap
It is possible down the road but unless MJNA shows exceptional growth in all sectors, those numbers are a little optimistic. Even with $155m in revenue as projected for 2014, that market cap is pretty high.
MJNA has a lot of potential. Their involvement in hemp and nutraceuticals could reap enormous benefits. While some folks like to dwell on the fact that MJNA does not participate in the THC sector (the area that is currently making all the money), the real money could be in the industrial application of hemp and cannabis.
Sell that stuff, make us proud (and rich)!!!
Don't forget to hit Austin TX, the headquarters for Whole Foods!
$1.26 FF Trade Was Not A Preview
MJNA was trading at .126
Some dunce just forgot to put a zero before the 1. I'm actually surprised their trading software allowed such a trade. ETrade and other brokers will give you a warning if you enter a bid over 10% of the current bid/ask.
Step In the Right Direction
Having a CEO in place, especially one with a medical background and company history is progress. I'm impressed that the CanChew executives were willing to step up to the plate with the audited financials and Q2 results looming. It seems optimistic but I'd like to think the 3 new leaders would only assume their new roles if they believed it was possible to right the ship. In addition and perhaps more significant, I suspect the CanChew execs would not be stepping up if there was credible evidence of illegal activity.
In a little more than 2 weeks hopefully there will be more clarity regarding Q2 results, 2 year audited financials, share count and other pending questions. I don't expect CanChew to be much of a boost. It's hard to estimate sales but an interesting idea would be to start a thread on this message board where members could post what products they have purchased. This worked extremely well on another message board where we tracked sales numbers on the very first iPhone by having members gather IMEI numbers from everyone they knew. In the end the board estimated 1.2 million were sold in the first 4 days and when the company reported, we were only off by about 125,000. If we could track the CanChew sales from board members here, put them into the crystal ball, maybe some estimates and hard numbers could be discussed.
The THC market is where the money is being made right now, as well as the past decades since cannabis prohibition began. Since Red Dice/Dixie is a well developed brand in Colorado, MJNA should be exploring all avenues for revenue. It will be interesting to see the handling of profits from recreational sales and how the federal government reacts should companies like MJNA or ERBByte dip into that pot through any loophole. THC gum would be the logical next step
MJ equities typically start the year with a bhang but the drift right back down. CBIScuit had their run in Feb 12. MJNA ran up this past Feb. Who's next? Does the tide raise / lower all boats pending some other factors?
My Guess on Today's Volume Spike
A significant short position was likely closed this morning. With ERBB at a recent low, most short positions would show profit. There was little follow up volume after the am spike.
Regardless if a large short position was closed or it was just bids being filled/accumulation, the real question is why? Is there pending news? Does somebody know something that caused the spike?
I've Followed This Debate and Don't Really Care
Marijuana? Hemp? Cannabis?
Whats in a name anyway? This is just a sideshow distraction.
Here's where I stand:
Yes hemp and marijuana are different plants containing different levels of CBD and THC, the latter have more of the psychoactive THC and the former having no intoxicating properties. From what I know having grown my share of marijuana (and shares for hundreds of people in NYC and CA), the CBDs in marijuana are most effective for treating medical ailments. In fact in the growing community there is a major push to develop marijuana plants that are highly concentrated with CBD and low levels of THC. Hemp pretty much only has industrial applications with some dietary benefits. I use hemp based powders for protein and as a digestive aid.
Believe what you will but ill let MJNA tell me if they plan to change the company name
I Don't Have PM but Here's My .02
There is no credible way to put a value on MJNA shares;
The financial info is too clouded. Once audited fins are available, then I will start towards making a fundamental valuation.
Price action and technical analysis are the best indicators right now which don't say much. For the past 2 years I have followed MJNA and the publicly trade MJ sector, these equities typically see activity in the first quarter of the year followed by a downward slide through the remainder of the year.
All that said, MJNA and other MMJ stocks are long term "lottery tickets." Right now the industry is hot with increasing social acceptance, long overdue medical acceptance and now even legal acceptance. How this will affect the MMJ sector is unknown. The biggest unknown for me is will companies like MJNA be able to firmly plant their feet in the soil as they have worked hard to be the first to get a foot on the ground or will larger entities steamroll the smaller players once the legal status of cannabis is more clear?
Either way, if you have disposable income and are not buying on margin, I think now is a better time than any to get into MJNA and the sector. In 5 years there could be several states legal for recreational use and with several election cycles, MJ could even be federally legalized. Much like the porn industry where for decades financial institutions refused to loan money to startups, the MJ industry has been shunned by banks (legally anyway but don't think Citi or JP haven't cleaned their share of drug cash). But banks know there is potential for billions upon billions to be made for a legal cannabis industry.
Specifically for MJNA, I think there are three major sectors of the MJ market they need to focus on:
1. CBDs - the medical applications are astounding from cancer treatment to epilepsy to depression to aids/HIV to lupus to you-name-it. This could be a $100bil drug EASY
2. Hemp - clothing, food, fuel, building material.....the applications are well known and were at one point well applied. I mean the Founding Fathers even made laws in some states REQUIRING US citizens to grow hemp. The wide variety of uses actually make hemp the most potentially enormous market with several $100bil industries that could benefit. Most important are the social aspects like increasing use of farmland in effect employing people in rural areas, possible ending govt subsidies and so on
3. THC - there is already a well established $100bil market for social, spiritual and recreational use of cannabis. It's is the safest mind altering substance known to man.
Does Shell Oil Sell Crustacean Lubricant?
Does Amazon focus on selling river navigational accessories? Does Fairways Groceries sell golf equipment?
CBDs are a major part of marijuana, in turn CBD are also a major part of the medical makeup of marijuana. I'm not sure where you are missing this but Medical Marijuana is a very appropriate name and those calling for a name change are clueless.
ThomasAn No Need to Bait Like That
I wouldn't even attempt to make an accurate share price valuation. Back in March when MJNA was at .35, I said it was going to .18 then .09 purely from technical analysis; .09 was a previous resistance point and there was a fat gap from there.
Only a fool would try to value MJNA shares on a fundamental basis because the financial info is so uncertain. With a company like Apple the share price valuation is pretty simple;
Income-operational liabilities+cash holding=market cap/outstanding shares+intrinsic values+future earnings. One can then speculate future quarters earnings and apply them to a new valuation based on projected sales of iPhones, iPads, and the like, coming up with share price projections.
Like I said only a FOOL would attempt to evaluate MJNA shares based on the cloudy fundamental fins.
Here's the Problem with "Alan B's" .05-.06 Call
It's based on a complete guess based upon absolutely zero firm financial fundamentals. See, as of now MJNA's revenue streams, operational liabilities, share count, true market cap and such are completely unknown. Therefore determining a value per share based on fundamental metrics is completely impossible.
Traditional with other companies, fundamentally evaluating shares requires calculating income v liabilities to figure earnings, then applying that to current company metrics to determine a market cap and finally dividing that by the number of outstanding shares.
Alan's number are pure "rabbit from the hat" numbers because we don't know the true metrics of MJNA. At this point technical analysis is far more credible.
I Would Be Cautious Expecting BIG Earnings News
If MJNA fails to deliver utterly mind-blowing news, the company/stock will get creamed. We've all seen it happen with even the very best companies/equities. Even solid numbers backed by decent fundamental news will disappoint.
Minus the CANV debacle, the numbers everyone will be looking at is the CanChew sales. The company launched the gum this quarter so there should be some sort of indication of sales in the Q2 report. I sincerely hope MJNA provides some future guidance regarding CanChew sales numbers.
Some clarity on the CANV holdings would be nice, i.e. planned sales.......
Right now MJNA is a real stinker and the entire industry is in legal limbo. Despite the claims made on boards and blogs, I don't think MJNA is a leader of anything. If MJNA was a leader, they just got their tails whipped from .50 to .09 and that performance has been less than inspiring.
All that said, if you want to get into the MMJ industry with a company that sells CBD products and has close relationships with THC providers, MJNA is a good play.
Grievous -800% is Not Possible
Do the math bud. -800% from .50 would put MJNA -$3.50/share
While a stock can go up by several hundred % the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM it can decrease is 100%. PERIOD. I don't know if you're confused, bad at math or just clowning but get real.
Rainy I've Been Long MJNA for 2+ Years
And have been long many other stocks for many long years. The articles and the "authors" are NOT the reason people lost money. Sure, maybe the writing exacerbated the sell off, but by no means can you correlate a trader or investor "losing money" as a result. First the investor/trader certainly did not buy because of the writers. Secondly, if they sold at a loss, that is because they were I'll timed trades or weak handed plays. Thirdly, the investor/trader is the one who places the trade or initiates their broker to execute an order not a blogger.
Look I'm not defending anyone's textual activity in regards to MJNA and I have a wealth of deleted posts from ihub and SA regarding that matter. But the facts are MJNA has a lot of uncertainty regarding revenue, management, the industry.....the street hates uncertainty.
Responsibility is the most valuable lesson an investor and trader can learn from a loss. Don't blame others because it was ultimately thyself who executed the positions.
.05, Based on What?
I have seen this number thrown around by several people here. Alan even claims that is his target yet provides no fundamental or technical reason for the low valuation. I do believe I read a statement from him that .05 is the "valuation" he arrived at. Gee for someone who claims analyzing MJNA is nearly impossible because the numbers cannot be trusted, I wonder where the $50m valuation is based upon.