Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
NVAX up to where it started at 156.
I was following you in but couldn't grab it near your number so I walked away.
Re opened AMZN at 3099 early in the day.
Trimmed SLQT at 20.13
Added to NFBK at 9.41
Opened SRNE at 12.12- did someone say something about this one ?
Excuse me Nick ?
And don't forget Medimune and MS Lily
Congrats Nick, Investors Forecast was my intro to your prodigious investing. Long ride.
I'm sorry I can't read things like this, it's sickening. I know as well as you that there are reasons for throwing this country into dislocation and chaos. I'll not go into detail, but to you and me Elroy, the handwriting has been on the wall for quite some time. Unfortunately, it's not surprising. The depths that some will descend to are unbelievable. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
I had my daily exercise today reading Nicks trades.
Okay so no one is paying attention. I mistakenly posted by typo the trim of WKHS at 10.75.
It was actually 18.75 at 14.74%
Considering it's at 16.65 now, I think I deserve an atta boy.
Got rid of NEE again at 280 cost. No joy.
Good Afternoon,
Trimmed MA at 312.55. Because I've been buying and selling this it is no longer based on the 15/ share cost basis from the IPO.- 8.17%
Added to SBRA at 14.74.
Trimmed WKHS at 10.75- 14.27%
Opened PINS at 36
Added to NRZ at 7.86
Trimmed SLQT at 19.03
SF, I was referring to the whole enchilada. The information you provided to lead you to open TDS. That was an endorsement. Your open put the icing on that cake.
You've been watching too much CNBC Nick. That railroad made me begin to think about CSX. Holy moly Nick great trade !
Tidying up after an eventful week.
Trimmed FB at 253.67. Since I have been accumulating on dips and selling on blips, my cost basis has increased....145% gain.
Added to NRZ at 7.93
Added to NFBK at 9.61
Reopened TWTR at 36.35 from a previous closing of 39.60
Added to SBRA at 14.74
Added to NYCB at 10.53
Added to NRZ at 7.93
Added to KNOP at 13.15
The housekeeping is all done. I'm turning out the lights.
Time to ready ourselves for an intimate outdoor concert at the lake on the lawn of the Elks club in East Brunswick NJ.
That's quite an endorsement SF.
Nice price pick also. 18.92 was todays low. Taking a quick look I could consider trading it, with some trepidation.
Nick-
FB will be in big trouble soon enough, with that Zuckerberg kid shooting his mouth off, not knowing exactly what he said. Zuckerberg should go through puberty before swordplay with congress.
SF-
TDS has been around in the shadows for years. Recently has begun to make a showing. I've followed it on and off for years since the 90's. Don't follow it presently other than in passing.
What indicator other than coming earnings was given to open on TDS ?
Nick-
CVX seems to be gathering upward momentum. Guess I missed my opportunity today.
I will be cutting exposure to BP and OXY which has long been overdue, due to suffering an extreme loss in OXY and going instead into CVX.
"The King has no clothes" - perhaps someone in the administration ?
-OR-
Perhaps...
"Nobody Expects The Spanish Inquisition"
Just perhaps, perhaps.
I just want to put a slant on this. I have bonds from El Paso Energy, which as you know was bought a few years back by Kinder Morgan.
Now I'm not commenting on Kinder Morgan, I don't follow it. But perhaps there's some insight to be had in viewing the increase in value in these bonds. I bought them at $126.43 and they were paying 5.5% at the time. The interesting thing is that their value has gone up since I bought on 12/5/2017.
Up by 7.25% at $159.60
Interestingly enough, the rate of return has gone up as well at 5.943% interest.
Perhaps this is a commentary on Kinder Morgan. To me the commentary on the El Paso bonds appears to be clear enough. I'm seriously considering adding to this holding if I can buy them. The 2030's look pretty juicy to me.
Anyone care to comment about this Nick ?
Incidentally, since I wasn't around yesterday I'm still reading yesterday's thread. It's good to see things in hindsight, reviewing what folks have done and where the stocks are now.
ELROY- I thought you lived on the left coast.
D.C. ? France ? I sure would like being your travel agent.
Not altogether excited about the chart on this one. Nice dividend if they can continue paying it.
I love the chart of AEP. Kinda okay-ish dividend too.
SF- Fabulous inciteful numbers of your U.S. states covid chart. Very inciteful. Kudos.
I'll remind you that the 2 sectors I recommended in March were Restaurants (chains) and Cybersecurity, and put my money where my mouth is. Opened recently FEYE at 12.54.
My mouth money did not however go into the restaurants, which may have been a tastier choice. Still waiting for MCD to get back to the 150's ( LOL ! ).
Seeing a lot of red in the market today. I don't like red.
Still waiting for ABBV to drop below 92. But it continues to tease...
I like the space that TERP occupies. The balance sheet fundamentals look good also. A big mover if the election goes the right right way perhaps ?
Would you look at this to invest ? Why, why not ?
Nick I'm upside down on SOLO at 5. My exposure with TSLA, WKHS, SHLL, and SOLO is enough.
At first look KNDI reminds me of NIO, another Chinese EV manufacturer, of which there seem to be many.
Plus there's my concern about the Robin Hoods pushing stocks around.
Trimmed PFE at 38.25 from 33.25. +$5
Story on PFE is though I have quite an understanding of PFE and factors moving this stock, I, instead of putting a stop loss on it at 39.25, I didn't and now trimmed at 38.25
I'll close if and when PFE is at 40. I will add if it goes to 33.
Morning Nick,
How'd your tech analysis go on AUPH ?
That reopen of TQQQ was at 111.79 not 11.79
I've been a busy boy,
Not really, I was just out
all day yesterday and missed a great opportunity with little risk to short kodak at 43 and cover at 28.
That said:
7/29/20 Reopened AMZN at 3000. Closed today at 3200
7/28/20 Reopened TQQQ at 11.79 Closed 7/30/20 at 120
Reopened SWT at 95
Opened GLD at 184.90. Each time in the past I've had anything at all to do with gold I've always lost money.
Trimmed SBRA at15.01
Trimmed NRZ at 8.15
Added to T at 29.56
Added to INTC at 48.08
Trimmed EPD at 18.50
Trimmed ET at 6.68
Good fortune to all !
Oh, incidentally it used to be said that Florida was "deaths waiting room". Now with the incidence of COVID in Florida it's referred to as "deaths doorway". The new marketing phrase is "Come to the sunshine state and choose your plot"
FB, MA, NFBK, IPOs. T for many many years, WMT. Depends on how far back you want to go. There are others.
Reopened AMZN at 3000.
Nick,
Kindly let us know when you're going in for the trade.
Unbelievably Kodak is up over $50 per share. !
The way I see it SF, NKLA is leasing their vehicles with fuel, not necessarily anything else. Their projected cost per mile is lower than present diesel cost per mile. I see their coming along any time soon as remote. I still stand behind my position that TSLA has a lock on the Electric car business and that won't change soon. There will be competitors and niche players like WKHS and SHLL, SOLO and the majors for the time being. All I hear about is that the majors will be introducing electrics in a certain projected time sometime in the future.
Opened SBUX this a.m. @ 78.
Electric Trucks Are the Future. The Stocks Are for the Bold. -- Barrons.com
4:52 pm ET July 24, 2020 (Dow Jones) Print
By Al Root
The future looks bright for electric trucks, but it's decidedly mixed for stocks of electric-truck companies.
Shares of Nikola (ticker: NKLA), which plans to make trucks powered by batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, and Workhorse Group (WKHS), which specializes in electric delivery vans, have skyrocketed this year, as investors become convinced that the future of trucking, like that of automobiles, is gasoline-free. Even Hyliion, which wants to use batteries charged by natural-gas-fed generators to drive trucks' electric motors, has some investors salivating, although there's no direct way to purchase a stake in it yet.
Fanning the frenzy: dreams of reeling in truckdom's equivalent of Tesla (TSLA) before it becomes a stock market whale. But fishermen must be careful not to hook themselves. Success is more easily envied than duplicated.
While the market for heavy-duty trucks isn't as large as for the multitrillion-dollar automobile industry, it's still massive: Six dominant heavy-duty truck and engine companies -- Cummins ( CMI), Paccar (PCAR), the Traton unit of Volkswagen (VOW.Germany), Navistar International (NAV), Volvo (VOLV.B.Sweden), and Daimler (DAI.Germany) -- did around $160 billion in truck-related sales in 2019.
Whether the new gang can disrupt the business remains to be seen. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joe Spak describes Nikola as a business plan, not a business -- a statement Nikola declines to comment on. Of course, that description could have been applied to Tesla a decade ago.
Back then, Tesla had only a very cool, limited-production roadster and big ideas, matched by skepticism from conventional car makers. Tesla went public at $17 on June 28, 2010, and anyone who bought in then and held until now would have made more than 50% annually. Those gains weren't steady; the stock's ups and downs have been epic. The same might lie ahead for Nikola, which at one point this year was up a startling 800%, briefly giving it a market value of $30 billion, a figure Tesla spent more than 3 1/2 years as a public company to attain.
Heavy-duty trucks aren't like cars. Consumers might buy a Tesla simply because they view EVs as good for the environment, or like the vehicle's looks or zero-to-60 acceleration. Purchasing a commercial truck is a business decision. Operators' paramount concerns are cost, efficiency, and dependability. Create a truck that will save money and go a million miles before it needs a major overhaul -- not uncommon for the 18-wheel Class 8 heavy trucks that dominate long-haul markets -- and customers will come. Fail, and you might as well try selling a bicycle to a fish.
That's especially true in weak markets, such as the current one. Before the Covid-19 pandemic erupted, analysts had expected sales of the big rigs to come in around 250,000 this year, about 30% below 2019's 350,000. Now, 170,000 seems more likely.
The average heavy-duty truck sells for more than $100,000. The initial outlay isn't the sole factor in purchases. Fuel economy and the expected maintenance tab are crucial, too. All in, it costs about $1.80 a mile to operate a heavy-duty truck. Exclude the driver and insurance and that drops to about 90 cents to $1 per mile. That's the target electric-truck makers must beat.
It won't be easy. With full loads, most modern tractor-trailers can go six or seven miles on a gallon of diesel, and many carry 200 to 300 gallons of fuel, so they can easily travel 1,000 miles before refueling. Of course, federal safety regulations don't allow a trucker to drive that far in one stretch. Drivers can work 11 hours, with a half-hour break before or at eight hours. After the 11 hours, they must be off-duty for 10 hours. Still, a skilled driver can go 600 miles in one shift. A husband-and-wife team -- not that unusual among independent truckers -- could switch off after the first driver's shift is done and go a lot farther.
Tesla's website says its heavy-duty Semi truck, scheduled to debut in 2021, can go 300 to 500 miles. Adding more range would require a bigger battery pack, decreasing the amount of freight that can be hauled. In addition, batteries degrade over time and are expensive to replace. Although the battery packs in a few Tesla cars reportedly have lasted 500,000 miles, long-haul big rigs pose a tougher challenge. Batteries might be better suited for lighter vehicles -- cars, vans, SUVs, pickups, and buses -- going shorter distances.
Where electric-truck makers say they'll have an advantage is in overall costs, particularly fuel savings. On its website, Tesla touts lifetime savings of up to $200,000 for the Semi, with a two-year payback, compared with the costs of owning and operating a conventional truck burning diesel. Whether that's hype or reality won't be known until well after the introduction of the Semi, which might cost $150,000 to $200,000, and competing products.
In any case, the trucking industry could be on the verge of a new era. Here's a look at some of the electric truck industry's players:
Nikola
While Nikola hopes to be the Tesla of electric heavy-duty trucks, it's banking on hydrogen to power them. Founder Trevor Milton wants to build trucks and own and operate a fueling network. He plans to offer a seven-year, 700,000-mile lease that bundles fuel and maintenance along with the vehicle. It's essentially trucking as a service, at a cost estimated to be 95 cents a mile, excluding driver's pay and insurance.
Nikola plans to equip trucks with fuel cells, basically batteries that don't run out as long as fuel is supplied. That fuel -- hydrogen -- produces water rather than greenhouse gasses when it's used to generate power. (See "There's a Bubble Forming in Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Stocks.") To supply the hydrogen, Nikola plans to build its own filling stations. The first could go up along routes most commonly used by its biggest customers. Among them: brewer Anheuser-Busch, which has ordered 800 Nikola semis.
Medium- and heavy-duty trucks are Nikola's sweet spot. (Medium trucks have a total weight -- payload, driver, fuel -- of 10,001 pounds or more; heavy trucks, 26,001 or more.) Hydrogen-powered cars, such as Honda's Clarity, have been around for years without gaining much traction.
Hydrogen isn't cheap or easy to find. But Milton is confident his trucks will be an easier sell because, he says, Nikola will drive down hydrogen costs, giving it a clear cost advantage over diesel-powered rivals. Nikola is trying to produce the gas for under $4 a kilogram -- a quarter of what it costs in some areas today. Hydrogen costs are the biggest threat to its shares.
Unlike Tesla, Nikola will outsource assembly and focus on producing hydrogen and fuel cells. Each fueling station will cost $15 million to $20 million. The cost of the fuel cells themselves is a closely guarded secret. While Nikola has over $700 million to support operations until commercialization, it's likely to need up to $2.5 billion more before it starts generating free cash flow. Its recent cash burn of $6 million to $7 million a month will certainly ramp up. The company has begun to take orders for a fuel-cell-powered pickup called the Badger, which, in top trim, will start at $80,000 and go 600 miles. But it has said that it won't use deposits to fund operations.
Figuring out what Nikola is worth isn't easy because it has no earnings or sales. The hydrogen-powered truck won't be available until 2023. But that hasn't stopped some analysts from predicting more upside for its stock. By 2027, Cowen alternative-energy analyst Jeffrey Osborne sees Nikola with 232 filling stations, 50,050 trucks in service, and $10 billion in sales. His price target is $79, double what the shares were trading at recently, which would give the company a market value exceeding $28 billion. Even RBC's Spak, the analyst who described Nikola as more of a business plan than a business, values the company at $16 billion, although he rates the shares Neutral.
Whatever the case, this isn't a stock for the faint of heart -- or wallet. Its 52-week high is $93.99, while its low is $10.16. This past Monday, it plunged more than 21%, to $38.45, on worries that maturing warrants issued to early investors would create selling pressure on the stock. More pressure is likely. If the shares fall to under $25, that would be a better entry point for growth investors seeking a margin of safety.
Ballard Power Systems
That kind of volatility isn't new in the world of fuel cells, which for many yesterdays have been the power source of tomorrow. Consider Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), listed on Nasdaq for 25 years. In 2000, at the dot-com bubble's peak, the fuel-cell maker fetched $145 a share. By the end of 2019, it was at $7.18. Recently, it was around $16, boosted by Wall Street's' renewed enthusiasm for its hydrogen technology.
Ballard's fuel cells go mainly into trucks and buses. Its top customer is Weichai Power, a Chinese maker of heavy-duty machinery that owns 18.9% of Ballard. Annual sales have risen about 9%, on average, over the past five years, hitting $106 million in 2019. Not bad, but not good enough to convince skeptics.
Although the stock trades for 25 and 20 times estimated 2021 and 2022 sales -- far higher than at any other point in the past 10 years -- Wall Street likes it. Five of the eight analysts covering Ballard rate it Buy, with an average price target around $19 -- 30 times expected 2021 sales and $3 above the recent quote. That seems rich. No one expected the stock to jump as high as it has. Don't expect it to stay there.
Workhorse
An electric-truck maker of a different stripe is Workhorse, whose stock has soared around 230% in the past month, to about $16. Founded in 1998, it once was known for producing an eight-rotor helicopter for personal commuting. But it sold its interest in that last December, and its focus now is chiefly on electric delivery vans.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2020 16:52 ET (20:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
I mistakenly attributed WKHS product with a different electric vehicle manufacturers product. I own this one also:
SHLL is a SPAC that will be financing a merger with Hyliion-
https://www.hyliion.com/
Hyliion manufactures the LNG/Battery fueled truck, not Workhorse.
(WKHS) manufactures step van type vehicles designed for delivery routes.
https://workhorse.com/cseries.html
Apologies for the mistake.
I own WKHS, SHLL, TSLA and SOLO.
SOLO-
https://electrameccanica.com
https://electrameccanica.com/eroadster/
https://electrameccanica.com/tofino/
Additionally, NKLA has broken ground on its Arizona manufacturing plant and has an agreement with a German manufacturer to produce its vehicles until the Arizona factory comes online.
https://nikolamotor.com/press_releases/nikola-corporation-breaks-ground-on-coolidge-multi-product-factory-4-0-manufacturing-facility-86
The previously bankrupt Fisker Automotive will be coming to market in an IPO as well.
NIO is a highly volatile Chinese electric car company stock.
https://www.nio.com/
Now you're talking Elroy. I really want to share the highway with the Hindenburg.
Contrast NKLA with WKHS. There are 700 LNG stations in the US right now and WKHS uses batteries to power their drive trains. They've adapted a generator to sustain the batteries using LNG fuel and the range is 1000 miles. The trucks are lighter have more torque and staying power than either NKLA or TSLA trucks. There are 1 minus 1 hydrogen filling stations in the U.S., but don't fret Elroy, because NKLA is going to build em- "Build it and they will come" or something like that.
Contrast this to electric stations and the time involved to "fill" the tank. Elon ( that crazy guy over at that electric car company ) better be working on something really special for Battery Day, I tell ya.
I think you're referring to kool aid which I'm sure you know powers American politics not diesels.
I think that the main draw is Elon Musk and the cachet of owning a Tesla- "OOOOH ! they own a Tesla !"
Mortgaged their house to do it, but wow is that impressive !
I think you meant vegetable oil diesel engines, which incidentally have been made by doing some retrofits on a standard diesel engine. French fries anyone? That's what the exhaust would smell like if you scavenge or buy used oil from McDonald's.
Hey is this to say that McDonald's is an energy producer? Move over Occidental Petroleum !
Hasn't sounded promising since the 90's, SF.
Thank you NIck. You may have mentioned this to me before, I will pay attention this time. How did you know about KODK ? There wasn't anything anywhere in the news that I was aware of.
I may have asked this before, but where do you get real time MACD and RSI info ?
You're welcome HB
Two things- PFE CEO will be interviewed on CNBC shortly
3 pm Mitch McConnell will be on CNBC today
I couldn't agree with your thesis on TSLA and all the other car companies. They are so far behind it's telling.
I'm not saying that TSLA is worth what it's cap is, but surely you don't see that any car company will compete head to head against TSLA any time soon.
Homeboy, there are a few electric car companies to look at other than and including NKLA-
WKHS
SOLO
and Fisker automotive which will be coming to market in an IPO.
Another is NIO.
These start ups including NKLA are iffy. Check each one out.
Though NKLA has gotten a lot of play, it doesn't really have a factory or much more than plans.
Solo has a vehicle, and plans for others.
Workhorse is a going business as well.
I'm invested in SOLO and WKHS and they haven't been kind to me.NIO wasn't ind to me either and it's a Chinese company. I made a bundle on NKLA's IPO.
Reopened TQQQ at 111.74