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WCRS - Yeah, same here. I actually don't currently own any, but have in the past. Just hate to see stuff like this. Looks like not a first time scammer:
https://www.buyoutsinsider.com/gp-buys-out-lps-waives-capital-call-obligation/
WCRS - Yeah, I'll be very leery of Blackstreet Capital out of Bethesda, MD in the future. They owned 75% of the shares here and mgt only 3%, according to last 10-K. I have a guess about who's pulling the strings. Company has almost the entire current market cap in cash.
WCRS - Ugh. Deregistering and not even planning on trading on the OTC. Intends to do annual buybacks. So basically, you can sell once a year at whatever price they offer.
Maybe a larger shareholder will fight this:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1363958/000175392622000735/g083017_8k.htm
PGNT - It's pretty funny how some companies can have 50% or 60% gross margins and can't make money, but little PGNT does just fine with 10% gross margins. ha
Seems like a lot of bloated organizations out there
PRPH In general, I like the CEO, but on this call I found him a little tough to understand on the covid testing and profitability. HRSA funding not approved yet and may not come, that's roughly half of revenue. Second and third quarter likely to be lower revenues, but did you get the impression they'll still be profitable for q2 and q3? At some points he seemed to say yes, at other points it felt like he was saying profitable for the year, but maybe not next two q's?
Sounds interesting, but looks like they haven't been close to profitable thus far. Can you provide any further insight on why you think they'll be profitable this year?
VTNR - Thx researcher. Do you remember any of the details on why they got the refinery so cheap? Big companies can do odd things when they're wanting to get out of something, or close divisions, etc. But even then, I'd guess this refinery would cost billions to build today. Also, am I understanding correctly that the renewable diesel thing was going to tack on some additional refining capacity and not totally eliminate the current abilities for conventional fuels? And are there some special tax incentives for the renewable diesel? Anything you can remember would be appreciated. Thank you
PRPH Excellent. CEO had been hinting at a special dividend.
What's your take on the whole direct to consumer genomics thing? I know lots of people are into the whole "bio-hacking" type of thing and it seems like the precision medicine thing could catch on. But I wonder if it is truly that useful, or if it's more of a thing were one is convincing oneself of kind of useless stats, "if I eat between 4:30pm and 5:30pm, then people of my genomic type live 2.87% longer."
VTNR - Buy a refinery and pay it off in one quarter?
Anyone following the story here? (Apologies if I just missed it.) Sounds almost too good to be true. This is Vertex Energy, which has been discussed here in the past. They collect used motor oil and then had a recycling and refining operation.
Well, they bought a refinery (70,000 barrels of oil per day capacity) in Mobile, AL from a chemical division of Shell (Equilon), who was trying to offload or close these smaller refineries. (Equilon ended up closing some other refineries). Signed the deal in May '21 with the intent of modifying the refinery to make biodiesel from soybean oil. Between signing the deal and closing the deal on Apr '22, energy prices spiked, and refining margins went nuts. In their Q1 earnings release (which does not include the numbers from the purchased refinery because it closed April 1) they include this little line:
"During our first 30 days of operation, the refinery generated strong EBITDA, all of which came from conventional fuels production," continued Cowart. "Putting the significance of this performance in perspective, we currently anticipate Vertex will generate enough net profit to have paid for the Mobile refinery and related logistics assets in less than one full quarter of operations."
Sounds like they've now hedged off half of the production for pricing safety. The area of the refinery (Mobile, AL) doesn't have pipelines so they even get a premium to nationwide pricing for diesel, etc. They're giving 2022 and 2023 guidance numbers (that always scares me) that show crazy cash flow. The stock has moved up significantly recently. CEO began his career in Mobile, AL and even maintains a home there and knows the refinery well.
But I'm just trying to figure out if I'm reading this right, could there be some hidden liabilities or something, or did they just get unbelievably lucky to have prices go crazy at just the right time? For those who have owned VTNR in the past, did management seem trustworthy?
Earnings Release:
https://www.accesswire.com/700704/Vertex-Energy-Reports-First-Quarter-2022-Results
Presentation:
https://www.vertexenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/VTNR-1Q22-Conference-Call-Deck.pdf
Earnings Call:
https://www.webcaster4.com/Player/Index?webcastId=45173&g=966edf62-0b10-463f-9a80-d5a14421719a&uid=6679328&sid=
SRTS - That's my take on it.
SRTS -- I could certainly be wrong, but here's an absurd and completely hypothetical analogy that gives a framing and way to look at it.
Forget medical devices or anything and let's just say you're an investor and I'm a salesman trying to sell a machine of some kind. To keep it super simple, let's say the machine costs $96k and can be used only once on one customer within 1 year. Customers are not difficult to find. The reimbursement rate is determined by the govt and it is $100k. It's a crazy hypothetical so let's just assume there are no other costs. Based on those economics, do you want to buy one of my machines? 4k profit divided by 96k cost, it's about a 4% return. Better than a CD, but it's no great shakes.
Let's say my sales staff and I have been coming to you for 5 years with that same proposition, and you've been turning me down for 5 years.
This year, I approach you again. I say, great news, my machine now costs $100k. You start yelling at me to leave because we've already been over this for the umpteenth time. But then I say, wait, the reimbursement rate has now changed to $150k. Now do you want to buy one of my machines?
Your response might be, "Say what now? I pay $100k and get back $150k?"
"That's right," I reply.
"How many can I buy?"
========
Enough of the hypothetical and now back to reality. Like it or not, we live in an almost communist style medical system where the government sets the pricing for procedures. I don't like it, don't think it should be that way, but that's the way it is.
For many years, it's been argued that the govt reimbursement rates for Mohs surgery have been way too high and the rates for SRT have been way too low. That has now changed. It's also been argued that Mohs surgery is overkill for certain non-melanoma skin cancers; like being forced to use a sledgehammer made of gold to kill a mosquito. Everyone (including Sensus Healthcare) agrees that Mohs surgery is what should be used for melanoma skin cancers (generally the most deadly, and the most likely to have further deadly cancer beneath the surface.) SRT is only for appropriate NMSCs (non-melanoma skin cancers).
The cure rate of SRT on these lesser cancers is very close to Mohs surgery and is much less intrusive. SRT is an old technology, not sexy (less competition), but very safe, less intrusive, much more convenient for the patient in most cases, much less risk of infection or something going wrong during a surgical procedure, no disruption to lifestyle, less chance of scarring, etc.
Many of Sensus's customers are also Mohs surgeons so it's more of a "right tool for the right job" type of situation, rather than purely a competitive technology. Sensus has added ultrasound on their latest machines to help with a visual for both doctor and patient. Plus, doctors like money too. If you listen to the SRTS conf calls, on all the various billing codes that apply to them, they've received about an average of 50% increase in govt reimbursement rates for procedures on their machines. (Mohs reimbursement rates are also coming down). So for the doctors, whatever the specific numbers are, the economic value proposition just got 50% better to purchase one of these machines (thus, the above hypothetical).
But the improved reimbursement rates don't just get automatically updated in some big doctor spreadsheet. Sensus has to go out and do the selling to inform the doctors that the economics have changed.
Plus, Sensus has a financing partner that now provides a fair market value lease proposition where the dermatology doctor doesn't have the hassle of ownership, has little upfront cost, and only needs about two customers per month for it to make sense for them.
Another big application of SRT is for keloid scars. This is when a scar heals raised above the skin. Even if you're not familiar with the term, you've almost certainly seen it as some point in your life. Keloids can be thick, rubbery, and unsightly. They can almost look like mushrooms sometimes. When keloids are surgically removed, they can often grow back even bigger. If treated with SRT almost immediately after surgery, they tend to not come back. Keloids tend to happen more in darker skinned peoples. (Part of the reason for seeking sales to China, Taiwan, India, etc) Dr. Pimple Popper on youtube is a Sensus customer and has called it a game-changer for keloid scars.
Sensus (and many dermatologists offices) were almost completely shut down during the govt lockdowns. The increased reimbursement rates only came in Jan '21, I think it was. There were no conferences or sales calls until Q3 of '21, if I recall correctly. Q4 tends to seasonally be strong and probably included some pent-up demand along with the improved economics. Q1 has tended to be weaker historically, so I was impressed with the results (I would have been happy with maybe 3 or 4 cents) Sensus only has about 2% of US dermatologists as customers, so theoretically lots of room for growth.
Sensus is also now the exclusive US distributor of an FDA cleared TransDermal Infusion System that will eliminate the need for needles for many things that used to require needles (botox, etc). This is a lower-priced device, but sounds like it is selling well.
Company sold its Sculptura division for $15m cash. This was a high-level cancer radiation machine that is used during surgeries in hospitals. (Larger price machine, long, slow bureaucratic sales time.) Slice the patient open, zap the cancerous area (often after surgery), and then stitch them back up. These machines were sold to and being used by UPenn and Stanford. So Sensus is not slouches with the products they make. Sold the division to focus on their dermatology products.
As far as the stock price goes, hey, anything can happen in a collapsing market. The first quarter 10-Q isn't out yet, but it should show nearly $2 per share in cash, and no debt. Stock trades around $8. I like the way the company reported right at the top of their press release that continuing earnings were $.20. They didn't try to go with the higher number which included a one-time gain from the sale. That's the ethical way to do it.
However, my guess is most reporting services and stock screeners are set up to just enter in the bottom line earnings number, in this case $.97 for Q1. Some services must go off press releases, and others must wait until the 10-Q is filed. Stockhouse and MSN Money are already using the $.97 figure for Q1 and already show EPS of $1.28 and the stock as having a P/E of 6, so that should help with a little downside protection and probably add some eyeballs to the stock.
2021 Earnings were: Q1(.07), Q2 (.02), Q3 .01, Q4 .32
If we use the reality of .20 for Q1 that still puts us at .51 for trailing twelve months on an $8 stock with $2 cash in the bank, and what should be blockbuster y-o-y sales and earnings growth for at least the next two quarters. Q4 might be tougher, but I think (hope?) that the reimbursement change and fair market value lease offers a couple of years of improved sales, so right now I'm thinking of this as a longer term hold.
We'll see.
Hope that helps.
Amen. We're seeing a slow but sure administrative takeover of the country by all this woke nonsense. The govt makes it so onerous and/or punitive to not go along with their narrative of how the future should look, that businesses are basically forced to go along with the govt if they want to keep their licenses, etc. It's disgusting and it's ruining every industry and thus ruining the country.
Yeah, I totally agree. I don't like any of this nonsense. It's communist or fascist or something. But it's destroying the entire system. We're likely to have an energy crisis for several years that has been totally self-inflicted because of this same woke nonsense.
I think the Ministry of Truth should add a warning to your comment because people might be misled! None of us should be allowed to make our own comments, or think, or invest for ourselves, without the necessary context being added by the state! Misinformation must be abolished! Your fellow man is always to be distrusted, but the govt always has your best interest at heart! Only brokers who follow the govt narrative should be allowed, or else we will all die!
SRTS - I was very impressed with the quarter. Lots of good things happening. SRTS is my second largest position
Any news? I see CVST is moving this morning, but have no idea why
BGFV - Not specifically interested in the stock at the moment, but hadn't looked at the short interest in a while and I remember none of us could figure out why it had such high short interest. Well, short interest is back to 42%. I still don't get it.
Yes, price has gone down some along with the rest of the market, but I just never have seen what the shorts saw here. Maybe it was a long-term short for someone who thought the blip-up in results from Covid would eventually end, and that's probably coming true. But it still seems like they must have gotten squeezed horribly on the way up
https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=bgfv
SRTS (7.60) - Took a big tumble (like many others). Picked up a few
Agreed. Insiders have a lot at stake, but at the very least it's sloppy.
AESE Down around 1.60 again
Not too many following Canadian oil and gas stocks are there? ha
Oh I'm totally with you, just in this case looked more like someone painting their portfolio. I'd love to see much higher prices myself
APVTW - I saw that, but it was just 1000 lot, so $120 trade
RISR An ETF for rising interest rates.
This ETF came up on my new high screen today and I'd never heard of it. A chart shows that the ETF has indeed been moving up nicely as rates have gone up, and I've been looking for such a vehicle. However, I'm always worried about what securities or futures they're using to accomplish this, and will those hold up if things get really serious. Or, if you attempt to use the ETF as a long-term hold, then you normally get killed with rolling to new months (when they use futures or options) I think PFIX is one that sort of does this.
Looks like RISR is meant to be more of a long term hold for rising interest rates. I'd be curious on people's feedback, good and bad. This video is timed to start where they're done talking about possible inflation and why you might need such an instrument, and they get into the nuts and bolts of how they're doing it. I've not heard of this approach before. You can watch about 15 minutes from where the vid starts, should give you a good idea:
Commodity Prices relative to stocks.
Interesting chart:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQQr58RVEAE5l7r?format=jpg&name=small
Nice Q
This was the hope of the acquisition. Seems good so far:
https://www.accesswire.com/697534/Caldwell-Reports-Record-Second-Quarter
NOL = Net Operating Loss
Was trying to figure out why the name Ledecky sounded familiar. Then it came to me, there's the Olympic swimmer Katie Ledecky. Wouldn't you know it, according to wiki Jon Ledecky is her uncle.
He's also a Harvard grad, so I wonder if it's killing him to change the name of the company to Yale. ha
Wow, congrats. Sounds like a heckuva payday
SPIN - Remember this oldie but goody? Just noticed they went from a can't miss medical receivables business to crypto! lol
SRTS (8.70) Back down to a more interesting buy level
Yep, I got a kick out of his comments too. I always enjoy people who can laugh at themselves and not take themselves too seriously
Re Lentinman yep he would be loving the Kansas win, and also the fact that spring is coming so he wouldn't be freezing as much from not turning on the heat
Nice!
Crazy action. I don't own it, but I'm curious if anyone is able to sell their shares on the first day with the new symbol? That's usually part of the problem, it takes the broker a few days before it's tradable under the new symbol. You'd love to sell, but can't.
APVTW has had some pretty good volume last few days. Not sure if it means anything, but definitely more volume than there's been for months
AESE getting back closer to its typical channel location
CXDO Yeah, I'm listening also. The growth sounds good and I suppose operating leverage could really kick in at some point. But then again, maybe mgt is just willing to pay a higher valuation than me lol
CXDO - What's your take? Is this about what was expected? I haven't followed this one closely. On first glance, it doesn't seem particularly cheap. But Gotta love when mgt put their money where their mouth is
APVTW Yeah, that guy at .05 has been offering 10k endlessly