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Well said jbem.
So you are saying he would forego capital raise to accelerate expansion just because he said previously he would not do that? Not likely.
What I thought I stated was that, if the results of the Phase II studies become game changers, the CEO will change his game plan accordingly to optimize the potential, and will not allow the lack of capital to inhibit their growth. That does not make him disingenuous, it makes him a competent strategist.
Of course, if a capital raise is not necessary they will not do one. My point is, if they do one, it will be with very good reason and with long term benefit to the growth of the company.
I raised your hackles with my worthless and meaningless observations. As my point is apparently not understood, there is no point in further explanation or discussion.
I realize this is a sensitive subject on this board, my view is different than many in that I see the potential events (cash raise, reverse spilt) as coming at a time when the news is outstanding and they are looking to accelerate and expand their portfolio of studies due to the excellent results from some or all of the current phase II programs. Should their successes warrant rapid expansion to develop treatments for other cancers, I am all in for whatever it takes to do that if it means this is a multi billion dollar company down the line.
Thanks Will, I think we will do well here, but I also believe that after big news and a nice run up, we might see the same thing INO did, some cash raise and a reverse split. But only after excellent news and a move to $2 range. And that will be to move to a bigger market and to please institutional investors. It is the way of the world for growing biotechs. So the roller coaster may continue, but at much higher levels, which we can deal with. Not a popular opinion, but to me getting to that point is great news in itself.
Cracks me up that people couldn't wait to sell this stock in the low 50 s and below yesterday, and now can't wait to buy it up in the mid 60s. I'll take psychoanalysis over TA and fundamentals any day of the work week from 9:30 AM to 4PM EST.
Or not.
You bring far more to the board than I do and I thank you for that. As for a spat, I vaguely remember something but chances are we are both better for the exchange.
I view today as capitulation and look forward to the next few months. Only wish I had had more fresh powder to load up lock stock and two smoking barrels. Still I am way overloaded here, but risk is tempered by the relatively low bar to success ONCS needs to clear.
I actually like what occurred today I've seen it happen so many times before some major upward moves occurred, INO and PLUG immediately come to mind.
Don't know Zoriden, it has been a while, hope he didn't lose faith!
What a crazy day, don't know how other biotechs made out but coming off a crash to 48 for us, and Inovio from 2.15 to close at 2.60 was nice.
I think it was about when you confirmed with the company that no one was electrocuted that the rally began for both....nicely done.
Yep it's Monty Python, but someone else here used it a few days ago some cred to them. Nice recovery today folks. Always makes me wonder if the same ones buying at 60 late were the same ones who were selling for less earlier...
Hey market makers, hedgies and the rest of you immoral POS manipulators, guess what, we held, we bought and you did not get our shares! Thanks for the discount, you forced me to up my position by 30% today at about 52 cents. I too fart in your general direction.
Great stuff Trevor, did you write the wedding vows for Kip on Napoleon Dynamite too?
Looks like we may have held our ground, albeit at the edge of the cliff. Be interesting to see where we close.
Wow guess I am glad I sold that INO 2.45 to buy ONCS, INO At 2.14. Incredible.
Yeah, I don't plan to sell anytime soon though. Maybe best if I just stop looking. Anyway, once this started I figured .48 for a bottom, hope I am right. If not I might just move to Florida and get a job as bear bait, as this will be great experience to land that job!
True that, but I just sold half of my INO to buy another big chunk of ONCS. The rebound should come sooner and stronger here.
Have to disagree tremors. INO traded the same pattern we are now in, with many fundamental and technical parallels. INO was beginning to exhibit confidence levels (epic year) and some early results were coming up. ONCS is about to have multiple catalysts. While the markets were different, the demographics of people trading (retail investors) were likely identical.
Anything under a dollar on any exchange is "Wild West" in terms of volatility and manipulation. I'd love to hear your points for why they are not comparable though, always want to learn more.
Eros, take a look at INO from last year, Feb to April. The parallels remain stunning. And I think we follow the same track through most of 2014. Added 50k, not at lows but .54s feel good.
Besportie, you said "Just stay realistic in order not to mislead new people to get in the stock at these levels" What? Given the company has results for 3 separate Phase II studies coming, at what levels should we be optimistic and hence, leading new people to buy?
I added 80,000 shares today, each day we draw closer to results that are not dependent on drugs but on their delivery into a tumor site. This is the FDA equivalent of shooting fish in a barrel. If one of the 3 are successful we double our money.
New people need to do what we did, research, learn and buy when you are comfortable. Each penny down today was one cent less risk I undertook to invest, as there was no news to create such a drop, only fear.
Zor, INO might run up on spec before HPV data, but if RS affects real PPS, it's a head fake only to shake out more shares for institutional buyers. I'm holding a core but it is less than half of the value of my ONCS holdings. If HPV data positive INO will be a bargain at almost any price. Still, I like our potential gains in ONCS over INO over next 4 months.
Thanks lasers will be an interesting year for sure.
My point exactly, the owners of the "agent" will want to manage the use and control and not allow ONCS to reap all of the ancillary benefits. They will want more for themselves, a buyout accomplishes this in my opinion.
Not a biotech guru so work with me on this. ONCS' methods create better responses at much lower systemic doses. ONCS optimizes efficacy and safety. For big pharma, this means less drugs sold, less profit for them if ONCS remains independent. Big pharma is all about monetization. ONCS is a procedure company, it is perfecting deposition of medication directly into a tumor. In order for big pharma to win in this game they need to own the procedure so they can charge more to offset the losses resulting from optimization. So Merck, like it did in buying Medco, or any other large pharma, could buy ONCS, set up their own EP centers within cancer treatment facilities and monetize the entire process from drug to delivery. Control is theirs. Plus the enhanced results magnify the effectiveness of their meds, grabbing more of the market.
Given that ONCS next steps are to go big in other more prevalent cancers, what better time to initiate such a purchase than now, while they can buy it on the cheap. Not saying I want it to play out that way, but, if this is the future of treatment better to get control of your piece now before the competition grabs it if you are a big pharma. Thoughts?
We've been fortunate to buy down at these levels. HPV data will determine the direction for the next 2 years in my opinion. If positive we would see double digit PPS without split. If negative they will need all of that reverse split go hold $5 until other pipeline plays start to emerge.
Any of you in INO last year at this time? Man, talk about déjà vu! Kim was talking partnerships, epic year, stock went from 40s to $4. Now ONCS CEO is ebullient, talking partnerships and we started out in the .20s. The parallels are stunning and I'm sitting here thinking, "can it really be this easy?". Just remember, before we took off (INO), the MMs took it from the .70 range (the wall) down to .48 and then we took off. This run Dow to low .70s may have been our .48. I think the fun has just begun...again. Enjoy!
I had 334,000 shares of INO in the 70 cent range, sold and bought and sold, intended to always hold a core position. Didn't always but am determined to hold a core now and to add if it falls.
The risk of ownership decreases with the falling PPS. (Just had to throw that in for anyone thinking of selling now). GLTA longs.
But I have to say, ONCS is déjà vu right now.
Hey strik, once or twice a year my investments get to a point where I think"man sell if all and wait for a pullback" I never do and it always burns me to some extent. Times like this are why I wish I had. Looking at INO at these levels, I think, is like looking at Apple in single digits. I am cash poor, loaded up in ONCS, and another stock that I know will double by November so I am hog tied with the core shares of INO that I own. If I can free cash up I am going to do a 10-20-30-40 buy at 2.75, 2.65, 2.55 and 2.45, 10 being 10% 40 being 40%. Hell I might have to sell my ONCS if this would drop below $2.50. The tutes want in as cheap as possible and are probably a big part of this move
down. Hang tough and good luck, we will all be smiling in months and years to come.
Sooner the better!
The manipulation is almost predictable with these stocks. Wish I had been greedier in INO's earlier moves but I tended to sell the big moves and buy back the sell offs at progressively lower levels of certainty, even though I was right two thirds of the time. I'm hoping that ONCS breaks out before INO so I can reload but both will win. I suspect INO, if they do not get bought, will become a premier powerhouse for decades to come.
Yeah x, I think mannkind is just laying in the weeds but that it should double in the next 6 months. I think of how much INO I held last year, now I am holding twice as much ONCS and a nice chunk of INO. 2014 should be fun.
Strange, my response was not directed to you unless you changed your username. No matter, I, like you, am very optimistic about this company, not only as an investment, but as a way to finally eradicate all kinds of serious diseases.
Hey strik, don't know if we will see that kind of drop, unless Phase II results are off for some reason, there is a buzz to this stock now that may make it impervious to the fate many of these small biotechs experience. I think this whole RS has been orchestrated one or more of the large institutional/mutual fund companies that want this stock in their funds ASAP, and they recognize this could be the next big thing. Getting these shares up to the $20s will glean the retail holders and allow the big boys to own it as it potentially runs into the hundreds. Look at the change in Cramer's group, he is now talking about owning it as a spec play. He never talks about stocks under $5, ever! I hope you get your cheap shares cause I would like some more too, but more importantly I hope you get some period. Good luck.
What cash are you referring to ? They just did a cash raise and why would they return any cash to shareholders?
Where will the big institutional investors gets shares? From scared retail investors. Why would you sell just because of a POTENTIAL reverse split? I honestly hope there is a panicked dash to the door, people who are invested long term and know what this company can do will buy up shares as fast as we can take them from you. No offense, just the facts. If this does split I expect to see a 30% move up in 3 days or less as institutions grab as many shares as they can. And it will probably not come down from there it will continue to rise. This is a game changing stock and they know it.
Further, so do other big pharmas, and they may jump all over this and try to buy them out before the institutional buyers load up and drive the price even higher.
Good luck, ONCS shares are getting cheap,
Johan, one thing that disappoints me is the lack of activism by small investors as we get beaten up in so many ways. Examples include usurious fees charged for trading stocks that are less than a dollar, the wash sale rules and the free ride regs, the tax loss limit for short term losses ($3000 per year) but short term gains bear full taxability. Market maker gaping margins between bids and asks. I could go on but you get my point. We operate in a mine field with odds stacked clearly against us.
I hope longs hang on tight to their shares and if they do decide to sell, they make the big institutional buyers pay dearly to gain entry into our exclusive club.
I believe it is a contingency plan in event of HPV failure, not that it is anticipated. Personally, I believe they would only do it if that occurs, as phase II success puts them way over $5. In event that HPV fails for some ridiculous reason, it enable the to still get above $5 and into the hands of the bigger funds and institutions who I believe are behind this, for the rest of the pipeline to play out.
Yeah but bottom line is, if Phase III is successful they won't need to do it. Still should send more investors toward ONCS.
... Confidence to shareholders though and that will result in a sell off, may bring some new buyers to ONCS.
I view it only as a "worst case scenario" contingency. It does seem like a lack of confide
As much as INO went up today, I would guess it pulls back maybe to the 2.90 area tomorrow. But it just presents a buying opportunity IMO. The INO board can decide not to do the RS so it's really just a hedge. I'm hoping there is an overreaction but we will see.