Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
jq1234, biomaven,
Quick question on the valuation of DVAX. Isn't its market cap of 630 million a little high for having no revenues yet? Would Merck or somebody else pay more than a Billion to buy it? That would put the stock price at about 5.5.
It was at 5.34 a couple of months ago before the dilution.
Is the potential for Heplisav so huge?
Thanks.
Just not to put a dampener on things for you. Keep in mind that with options you can lose your entire investment. Let us say that you bought Jan 2012 options when CLSN was trading at around $3 last summer. You did that before the interim results came out thinking that there would be a halt for efficacy and that the price of the stock would be around $10 or more in Jan 2012. You might have paid approximately the following:
$1.75 for the Jan 2012 $2 call option
$1.15 for the Jan 2012 $3 call option
$0.75 for the Jan 2012 $4 call option
$0.45 for the Jan 2012 $5 call option
Let us say you bought 10 contracts of each.
1.75 * 10 * 100 = 1750
1.15 * 10 * 100 = 1150
0.75 * 10 * 100 = 750
0.45 * 10 * 100 = 450
Total = $4,100.
Now that would have been $4,100 down the drain.
Now, if you had instead bought 1400 shares of the stock at $3, that would be valued at $5,600. In addition, you would have had the chance to make covered calls along the way to add to that.
Something to think about if the stock were to take a hit on any kind of bad news. All you have to do is follow the YMB and realize that hundreds were hurt last fall when there was no halt for efficacy and the pressure exerted immediately afterwards by the idiot Nathan August at Mangrove whose relentless selling resulted in the stock plunging to 1.65.
I am not saying that options are bad. If you had played it right, you could have purchased the CLSN Aug $3 calls at 0.10-0.15 a few days ago and sold it at 1.35 - 1.40 on Friday. I was waiting for the 0.10 to hit when I should have purchased it at 0.15
I am speaking from experience as I got burnt on the CLSN 3, 4, 5 Jan 2012 calls.
I had a few MNTA $15 August Covered calls that sold at 0.75 during the wild ride this morning. I wish I had sold all of them in the 65-70 cent range
I guess one of these is now ruled out
I am not sure I understand this. Does this mean that the Jan 2013 Amphastar/WPI case v/s NVS/MNTA is dismissed?
Something's up with MNTA Aug Calls. They are just taking off like crazy. The stock price has been volatile too!
Edison Investment Research -- says ASTX can have market cap more than double at $560mil/$6.01 per share upon EMA approval.
Hmm! Anybody heard of them? Is this article something they were paid for?
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/astex:-ema-issues-%27positive-opinion%27-on-dacogen-131162
I bought a few shares at around the 2.30 range and a few Jan 2013 $2 calls.
May pick up more if it drops some or based on the quarterly report next Monday.
Hmm! It seems all of MNTA's bad news seems to come on bad market days adding to the selling pressure. I don't know if any good news it had came on good market days.
Hmm! Interesting that there is no change for Mylan after hours on Friday, while Teva is up 7% and MNTA down 22%.
Time to change my alias now
JBog got this right all along. Kudos to him!
So, MNTA's lawyers have let them down 3 different times:
1. The M_Enox contract with Novartis
2. The Amphastar trial
3. The Copaxone patent trial.
In retrospect the bonus that the MNTA lawyers got after the initial ruling that prevented Amphastar from launching their generic lovenox was not money well spent.
The $6 EPS / share with both sole generic for Lovenox and Copaxone is never going to materialize. Now we will have -$1 EPS / share for at least 2-3 years. Aaarghhh!
The Shorts were right. Maybe it is Goldman who is the big short. It never pays to be against this crooked Wall Street company. The were always behind TEVA which is hardly surprising.
Now the investor enthusiasm for anything worthwhile coming out from the Baxter partnership in the next 5 years will wane.
So, we have to now wait for the 2013 Amphastar trial and maybe some positive news from their cancer drug.
This has been a disappointing stock Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. Hopefully there won't be any more bad news.
So, time to just stick to the covered call approach with MNTA. Luckily I made some money selling July $18 and $19 covered calls. For a day or two I was worried that I should have written the $20 covered call instead. Now, I wish I had sold the July $14 covered calls and kept the hefty premium
New CEO Letter
http://www.celsion.com/letter.cfm
Come on, you can do better. Try to sell the July 25 calls for 0.05 cents
I thought Baxter claimed the entire $34 million as expense this quarter. Why would MNTA handle this differently and over multiple quarters?
Novartis claims enoxaparin sales of $176 million
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/q1-2012-interim-financial-report-en.pdf
Any guesses based on this and the 34 million Baxter payment on what MNTA's earnings will be?
Zumba numbers as of April 7th
Here's what I am tracking in Q2 estimates as of 4/7/2012, with 3 weeks sales still to go (i.e. 3 weeks of data on VGChartz site):
Zumba Wii: 639043(accurate)
Zumba 2 Wii: 511119(accurate)
Zumba Kinect: 163096(estimate, but fairly accurate)
Zumba Rush: 28589(probably close to 250,000 or more; VGChartz doesn't have this right)
Zumba PS: 14643(estimate, but fairly accurate)
---------------------
Total: 1356490
This week we had 49458+44555+20401+2475+2341=119230. That is without proper Zumba Rush numbers.
Here are the approximate totals for the last 7 weeks:
Feb 4th: 160279
Feb 11th: 135762
Feb 18th: 136416
Feb 25th: 143833
Mar 3rd: 137518 (revised down from 146034)
Mar 10th: 131583 (revised down from 140921
Mar 17th: 145500 (revised down from 154762)
Mar 24th: 132567 (revised down from 143558)
Mar 31st: 113802 (revised down from 122577)
---------------------
Total: 1356490 (more like 1,500,000+)
Note: All the revisions were to the Zumba Wii version
So, we are probably looking at 1.8 to 1.9 million Zumba sales for Q2 with three weeks to go. This will probably fall short of my initial expectation of 2.0 million+
The numbers for Q2 2011
Zumba Wii: 770554
Zumba Kinect: 285000 (rough estimate)
Zumba PS: 53976 (rough estimate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 1109530
So 1.8 to 1.9 million compared to 1.1 million.
Note: The VGChartz site had sales of just 12, 6 and 4 for US sales of Zumba Rush. I don't have to tell you that this is wrong
http://www.vgchartz.com/game/70384/zumba-fitness-rush/USA/
Well the comparables did nothing to MNTA last year when it was earning $1.50 to $1.80 more per quarter compared to the corresponding 2010 quarter. The market is certainly stupid or maybe it is me
Zumba numbers as of March 24th
Here's what I am tracking in Q2 estimates as of 3/24/2012, with 5 weeks sales still to go (i.e. 5 weeks of data on VGChartz site):
Zumba Wii: 574274(accurate)
Zumba 2 Wii: 422720(accurate)
Zumba Kinect: 126366(estimate, but fairly accurate)
Zumba Rush: 23763(probably close to 250,000 or more; VGChartz doesn't have this right)
Zumba PS: 10955(estimate, but fairly accurate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 1158078(more like 1,400,000+)
So this week we had 68786+51235+15855+2529+1668 = 140073. That is without proper Zumba Rush numbers. So, it could be much higher.
Here are the approximate totals for the last 7 weeks:
Feb 4th: 160279
Feb 11th: 135762
Feb 18th: 136416
Feb 25th: 143831
Mar 3rd: 146034
Mar 10th: 140921 (there are usually some revisions in the numbers to the previous week)
Mar 17th: 154762
Mar 24th: 140073
---------------------
Total: 1158078(more like 1,400,000+)
We are averaging between 135k to 160k per week.
So, even if it drops to average 100,000 a week from here on we are conservatively looking at 1.9 million Zumba sales for Q2. But my guess is we will exceed 2.1 million easily with 5 weeks to go.
The numbers for Q2 2011
Zumba Wii: 770554
Zumba Kinect: 285000 (rough estimate)
Zumba PS: 53976 (rough estimate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 1109530
So 2.1 million compared to 1.1 million. This can't be anything but a blow out quarter.
Note: The VGChartz site had USA sales of *** 12 *** (Just twelve for all of last week) for Zumba Rush. It is very obvious that these numbers will be in the thousands. Keep in mind that it was #1 in sales in all of Amazon video games for a day this week. So, thousands have sold just in 1 day this week.
Zumba Rush #1 on Amazon in all Xbox games
http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Video-Games-Xbox-360/zgbs/videogames/4924903011/ref=zg_bs_nav_vg_2_14220161
#2 in all video games (if you ignore the xbox live gold membership)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=amb_link_6856902_1?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=11N8SMTBS35JKCC1N6TT&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1346922442&pf_rd_i=468642
Copaxone approval coming soon?
A couple of days ago, somebody purchased 2000 Apr 19 calls for 25 cents. Today an additional 3764 calls have been purchased.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=MNTA+Options
This while the stock has slid 50 cents today.
Maybe it is the relative of an FDA chemist?
Zumba Numbers as of March 17th
Here's what I am tracking in Q2 estimates as of 3/17/2012, with 6 weeks sales still to go (i.e. 6 weeks of data on VGChartz site):
Zumba Wii: 505488(accurate)
Zumba 2 Wii: 371485(accurate)
Zumba Kinect: 110511(estimate, but fairly accurate)
Zumba Rush: 21234(probably close to 200,000 or more; VGChartz doesn't have this right)
Zumba PS: 9287(estimate, but fairly accurate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 1018005(more like 1,200,000+)
This week we had 73019+56735+17858+5204+1946= 154762. That is without proper Zumba Rush numbers. So, it could be much higher.
Here are the approximate totals for the last 7 weeks:
Feb 4th: 160279
Feb 11th: 135762
Feb 18th: 136416
Feb 25th: 143831
Mar 3rd: 146034
Mar 10th: 140921 (there are usually some revisions in the numbers to the previous week)
Mar 17th: 154762
---------------------
Total: 1018005 (more like 1,200,000+)
We are averaging between 135k to 160k per week.
Eeven if it drops to average 100,000 a week we are conservatively looking at 1.8 million Zumba sales for Q2. But my guess is we will exceed 2 million easily with 6 weeks to go.
The numbers for Q2 2011
Zumba Wii: 770554
Zumba Kinect: 285000 (rough estimate)
Zumba PS: 53976 (rough estimate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 1109530
We are already ahead of Q2 2011 with half the quarter to go. This can't be anything but a blow out quarter.
3 of the top 20 in Amazon's bestsellers list (all video games)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=amb_link_6856902_1?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=11N8SMTBS35JKCC1N6TT&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1346922442&pf_rd_i=468642
Zumba 1 (Wii) in 17th spot
Zumba Rush in 19th spot
Zumba 2 (Wii) in 20th spot
This is the first time that Rush has gone ahead of Zumba 2.
IHMO, only idiots are selling here!
Updated Zumba Q2 Sales Figures
Here's what I am tracking in Q2 estimates as of 3/10/2012, with 7 weeks sales still to go (i.e. 7 weeks of data on VGChartz site):
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40979/Global/
Zumba Wii: 432231(accurate)
Zumba 2 Wii: 314566(accurate)
Zumba Kinect: 92653(estimate, but fairly accurate)
Zumba Rush: 15699(probably close to 200,000 or more; VGChartz doesn't have this right)
Zumba PS: 7341 (estimate, but fairly accurate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 8624900(more like 1,000,000+)
So this week we had 69238+48005+17653+4871+401 = 140168. That is without proper Zumba Rush numbers. It could be much higher.
So, even if it drops to average 100,000 a week for the remaining 7 weeks, we are conservatively looking at 1.7 million zumba sales for Q2. But my guess is we will exceed 2 million easily with 7 weeks to go.
The numbers for Q2 2011
Zumba Wii: 770554
Zumba Kinect: 285000 (rough estimate)
Zumba PS: 53976 (rough estimate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 1109530
So 2 million compared to 1.1 million. This can't be anything but a blow out quarter.
Oops! I meant to say Original Zumba Xbox sales are accelerating. This is really good news as they are generating more non-Wii revenues.
Original Zumba Kinect sales accelerating
We saw that the introduction of Zumba 2 Wii caused the sales of the original Zumba to accelerate. Now, we are seeing the same trend in the original Zumba kinect accelerating with the introduction of Zumba Rush.
See the trend for yourself here in US sales of all video games:
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40951/USA/ (Week ending Feb 11th, outside top 100)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40958/USA/ (week ending Feb 18th, vaults into 54th spot)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40965/USA/ (week ending Feb 25th, moves to 44th spot)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40972/USA/ (week ending Mar 3rd, just outside the top 30 at 32nd spot)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40979/USA/ (Woohoo! Now at the 27th spot, with numbers of 12316 in the US).
I guess discounting the original version when a new version comes out actually is helping boost sales. Many people who put off buying Zumba, did so when it was discounted.
So, when Zumba 3 comes out later this year or next, we should see sales of Zumba 2 accelerate.
I like it!
Zumba sales numbers for Q2 2012.
I had posted this on the YMB.
I would think anything under 2.75 is a no-brainer if you hold for the rest of 2012 or at least until Sep/Oct.
Here's what I am tracking in Q2 estimates with 7 weeks sales still to go (i.e. 7 weeks of data, since VGChartz site doesn't have data out yet for last week):
Zumba Wii: 362993 (accurate)
Zumba 2 Wii: 266561 (accurate)
Zumba Kinect: 75000 (estimate, but fairly accurate)
Zumba Rush: 10828 (probably close to 200,000 or more; VGChartz doesn't have this right)
Zumba PS: 6940 (estimate, but fairly accurate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 722322 (more like 900,000+)
In the Q2 2011 we had
Zumba Wii: 770554
Zumba Kinect: 285000 (rough estimate)
Zumba PS: 53976 (rough estimate)
---------------------
Total Zumba: 1109530
So we are over 3/4ths of the way to Q2 2011 numbers with more than half the quarter to go. Keep in mind that the price for Zumba Rush is $50 and they get a higher price for European sales of Zumba 2 and Zumba Rush.
How they do on their margins is now the more important question.
I will update these numbers when the VGChartz site has numbers for last week.
If they add more impairment charges or development costs in the Q2 2012 quarter I will be really annoyed
I think Ritu Baral of Canaccord has said that she thinks MNTA can prevail in the Copaxone lawsuit?
I think you forgot Beavis & Butthead uh heh huh huh
1.6 million new shorts added between 1/31 and 2/15.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnta/short-interest
No, has not been voided yet
I would be very nervous if he were to get the Republican nomination. If the economy tanks and gas prices rise above $4, who knows, he may get elected in November. Nothing would surprise me after the 2004 re-election of you know who
Have you noticed that in Obama's presidency that the threat level has not been artificially raised / lowered repeatedly as it was near the 2004 and 2006 election. Hmm! I wonder why? He just can't stoop so low. That's why!
This will surely get deleted now Sorry, dew!
I had a GTC sell to close March 20 Call at 2.25. I had placed this order a month ago before the PI was stayed. It executed this morning (partial -- 1 of 5 calls) at 2.25 when the bid/ask was 0.2/0.3 I am not sure I will be able to keep that as they might void that trade. Similarly, there is a March 19 call executed at 5 when the bid/ask is 0.2/0.35.
Mylan -- Long-Term Growth Drivers Beyond 2013 (Copaxone)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mylan-Provides-Blueprint-2012-prnews-3539189210.html?x=0
Neurology: Mylan anticipates launching its generic version of Copaxone®, used to reduce episodes of symptoms in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, in the second half of 2013. Decisions relating to patent litigation and ANDA approvals are pending.
Teva sees annual sales of Copaxone exceeding $3.8 Billion for 2012. Anybody know if they were asked about the lawsuit or MNTA's application?
The Rapid Natural Gas Collapse
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/01/27/2012/rapid-natural-gas-collapse?puc=quo
The collapse in natural gas has occurred so swiftly that one by one we are hearing about companies that are stretched (EQT (EQT), Cabot Oil and Gas (COG), Chesapeake Energy (CHK)) by budgets that were prudent just a few months ago.
But nowhere did you see it more than in Carbo Ceramics (CRR), a stock that shed 20% Thursday after it has an astounding 70% decline in its proppant business (a man-made material that gets put into the well to keep the fractures open and helps for efficient production) in the Haynesville shale, a key natural gas shale field.
I have been looking at writing some puts. For example you can get $4 for the June 70 PUTS. In effect that will put me in the stock at $66. I will see how CRR does next week before writing the PUTS.
The problem is I need $7000 for 1 contract
Fracking is not going away. BHP made a $20 billion bet on Gas Fracking.
Where did you hear that? Somebody on YMB also mentioned rumors of a buy out. Who is coming up with these rumors?
Every week there are rumors of buy out of RRC (Range resources), SWN (South Western Energy) or UPL (Ultra Petroleum). Then there is a spike in far out of the money calls for the current month for each of these stocks. However, there is no buy out and these rumors have been there every month for 6+ months. Oh and the stock price of all 3 stocks has been sliding for the last 6 months.
Sometimes it feels like Wall Street criminals create these rumors just to exit a losing option position on the spike.
Of course, I wouldn't mind a spike in MNTA stock for what ever reason
Looks like we have to wait till the earnings conference call on the 9th to get any idea of what is going on regarding Watson's Lovenox. The suspense is killing me
6.7 million shares and a 28 cent pop. This is disappointing
So, have they actually started selling it? If so, why has there been no announcement yet from MNTA on the change in the royalty / profit share arrangement?
Or is this posturing from Watson / Amphastar to get better terms in their settlement with MNTA?
This uncertainty is definitely keeping a lid on the price, so no pop on the addition to the S & P 600 index
UBS doesn't like it here. Downgrades to sell with a price target of $36.
http://beta.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/pcl;WYid1508223/PCL;
So, we can look for a 14.8% increase in price (9% increase followed by a 5.3% increase). That would put us at 15.19 + 2.15 = 17.34 by the end of the week
Now, that should counter all the negative news coming out regarding Amphastar's lovenox. So, if we end the week at around $16, I will take that.
http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/cuny/cjcuny%20400-600%20changes.pdf
We find significant abnormal returns both on the announcement date (of about +6.7% for promotions to the S&P 400, and +9.0% for promotions to the S&P 600) and on the effective change date (about +5.0% for promotions to the S&P 400, and +5.3% for promotions to the S&P 600).