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HUI multi-year breakouts
Ideally HUI should hold 200 on this pullback, but given COTs and the manner in which the PMs are acting relative to gold I suspect we'll breach this level by just enough to flush out those who trade solely on TA. 190-195 seems reasonable, but even a move down to 180 again would not suprise me if POG goes under 420 again which it could if the COT is proven correct. This should be a fast move down followed by a relatively fast move up as well (April 2005?). I suspect this will be the final shakeout prior to a very nice move in gold and PM stocks.
Going to hold a core thru this period as I'm uncertain of the ST targets, but feel relatively confident IT and LT.
Biggest concern continues to be an '87 type crash where everything gets liquidated. 2nd concern here would be that too much technical damage would be done ST on a move below 200 and that we could spend up to 2-3 more months testing/basing in the 175-200 range prior to the next really strong move.
You definately hit the visuals. I was just looking to capture the personality of the characters involved. Great pics/choices on your part.
Suze Orman - Kathy Kinney
http://abc.go.com/primetime/drewcarey/bios/kathy_kinney.html
Bob Pisani - Macaulay Culkin
Lawrence Kudlow - Michael Richards (Kramer)
Ron Insana - Danny DeVito
Gold in Euros holding up well here after retesting breakout.
Gold/oil ratio.
Should be one of the better LT indicators that the next major wave up in gold stocks has begun. Would like to see the ratio get above 7.5 again before I get too excited about the turn being in place.
ANO breakout on Canadian side. No breakout yet on US side, but it'll come.
CDE breakout
NEM Head and Shoulders?
Head and shoulders on the daily which would project down to 30-32 area. From a value standpoint and a multi-year chart view such a retrace would be very normal. Could still go either way, but at a min, NEM needs to break daily downtrend line.
NEM 2004 bottom vs 2005 bottom(?)
2005
2004
KGC 2005 bottom/uptrend
Looking at a couple things here. NEM needs to hold 38% Fib or 36.9 level on a closing basis. Ideally KGC should hold uptrend at 6, but not a requirement. KGC should be a leading indicator due to it's leverage. OBV for 2004 vs 2005 is somewhat worrisome and leads me to believe odds are better than 50/50 that NEM will make new lows before the year is over in the 30-32 range. Today/monday are critical days. Rally still intact while NEM holds 38% Fib though.
HUI breaking down
BB width set for big move. Probably to the downside given the action of gold/Euro of late. 180 is a good target, will rethink scenario if HUI holds 195 or gold breaks 410.
WFMI (pig valuation stock) finally getting more (bad) attention.
http://online.barrons.com/article_email/SB111947338322466829-lMyQjAxMDE1MTI5MjQyNzIzWj.html
TA wise breaking down on daily and hourly.
-------------------------------------------
Whole Foods May Get Trimmed
By DIMITRA DEFOTIS
LATELY THE STOCK OF Whole Foods Market is looking a bit like an over-baked soufflé.
Shares in the growing natural and organic foods retailer are up a whopping 165% since Barron's Online wrote favorably about the company in August 2002.
In the past 12 months alone, the stock has outdone the Standard & Poor's 500 Index by roughly 25 percentage points.
But its lofty valuation may encourage investors to get out of the kitchen.
Valuation is the primary reason UBS Investment Research downgraded Whole Foods earlier this month. But it may not be the only problem.
Whole Foods has a reputation for high quality and commensurately high prices. Yet its plan to sell lower-priced house brands might not draw customers who are worried about reconciling high food prices with mounting fuel bills.
At a Glance
Whole Foods Market (WFMI)
Stock Price: $117.82
52-Wk High: $122.92
52-Wk Low: $73.21
Market Cap: $7.7 billion
Earnings Est. FY 2005* $2.42 per share
Forward P/E: 45x
Projected Long-Term EPS growth rate: 20%
Projected EPS growth ('05/'04: 15%
Sales (FY 2004): $3.86 billion
Div Yield: 0.62%
Chairman, CEO: John P. Mackey
Headquarters: Austin, TX
*Whole Foods fiscal 2005 year ends September 30.
Sources: Thomson First Call, S&P; Data by Commodity Systems Inc., Reuters.com and Thomson Financial Network provided through Yahoo! Finance.
Meanwhile, Whole Foods' aggressive expansion plans include building larger, more costly stores that may prove tougher to open and staff, possibly pinching margins.
"The valuation is high and if they stumble, the stock could get hurt," says Noah Blackstein, who owns the stock in the Dynamic Power American Growth Fund.
Whole Foods' bright aisles and deep selection provide a fantasy land for Americans fixated on healthy eating. Retail sales of natural foods rose nearly 12% to $20.4 billion last year, according to Smith Barney Citigroup research.
If all goes as planned this year, Whole Foods projects same-store sales will increase by 9% to 11%. Analysts expect earnings to rise 15% (see At a Glance).
Whole Foods' cash cow is perishable items, which comprise 67% of sales.
It's no wonder company officials compare Whole Foods' presentation to theater. A New York store displays fruits including Pluots, a cross between plums and apricots, in a bin lined with pineapple tops. It also offers 28 kinds of fresh sausage.
But that costs money. A typical supermarket might sell 85%-lean ground chuck for $3.50 per pound. Whole Foods' equivalent is hormone- and antibiotic-free and is $4.29 per pound in New York.
"One of the single biggest limitations of our growth, even though our growth is phenomenal, is the perception that we're too expensive, and our prices are too high," Chief Executive Officer John Mackey told analysts in May.
Are they ever! So, Whole Foods (which has been widely dubbed "Whole Paycheck") is expanding its lower-priced, private-label offerings. It plans to use its discount "365 Every Day Value" label and others to drive sales.
Yet customers can just as easily pick up well-priced, branded household necessities like tomato sauce or canned beans at a membership club, Wal-Mart or the local grocery. And while they're there, they might find organic carrots and many other products that are comparable to Whole Foods' offerings.
Mass-market stores had roughly 40% of natural food sales last year, estimates Gregory Badishkanian, an analyst at Smith Barney. Whole Foods' share was around 16%.
Meanwhile, Whole Foods is building larger stores in an effort to nearly double its store count, to 300, by 2010.
Store size has increased 22% and average weekly sales per store have risen 64% in the past five years, says Cindy McCann, vice president of investor relations.
The chain racks up sales per square foot of $862, she says, nearly twice the industry average.
But good locations can be tough to find in key urban or suburban affluent markets. And new stores initially have higher costs and lower margins than mature outlets do.
"Whole Foods still needs dense population, high income and a well-educated consumer," says Jason Whitmer, an analyst at FTN Midwest Securities.
Staffing stores with exceptionally food-savvy and motivated employees may prove more challenging, too. Without "that knowledgeable and turned-on work force, they will have a problem growing," says Andrew Wolf, an analyst at BB&T Capital Markets.
And investors must pay dearly for the privilege of owning the shares. Fetching 45x projected earnings for the next four quarters, Whole Foods easily surpasses the P/E ratios of fast-growing retail peers including Starbucks and Wal-Mart, argues Neil Currie, an analyst at UBS Research who downgraded the shares.
The stock also trades at a premium to its median P/E of nearly 32x forward earnings over the past five years, and at a hefty premium to the S&P 500's P/E relative to its history, according to Thomson Financial Baseline.
"We think it would be an opportune time to take profits on…an outstanding investment," Currie writes.
Of course, betting against Whole Foods' growth story has proved wrong again and again.
The company is far from market saturation in the U.S., and this year announced a foray into Europe with the acquisition of several small stores in London.
But the shares could tumble if sales or earnings growth falters. Sometimes it's best for investors to take hot stocks out of the oven before they get burned.
--------------------------
Yes I'm short w/basis around 118.5. It should fill the gap around 105 in the next 1-3 months (or maybe in the next 1-2 weeks). Pig stock.
XAU/gold ratio, long term easily justifies a move up to .25
Say gold drops back to 430 ST and ratio steady improves to .25 we have XAU of 107 or 15% improvement potential with gold dropping $10, but an improvement in the sentiment/outlook of gold shares. Just a rough calculation to show that while gold does look toppy ST gold shares themselves are still cheap even with a $10 drop in gold. As such any ST correction should be shallow.
Euro/gold
Looking at the longer term chart it's much easier that the current action while encouraging is unlikely to be sustainable ST.
I think the EU news of late has given us a sneak peak of what will happen 1-2 years down the road when gold does start to rally globally again all currencies. I don't think we're there yet, but as always the depth of the pullback when it comes will give a much clearer picture. Those calling for sub $400 gold did so forecasting the Dollar moving higher and simply plotting the usual correlation. I myself thought that would also be the case. Given the correlation of late sub $400 seems less likely and new HUI lows more unlikely. Although I still favor one more period of weakness starting anywhere from 1-4 weeks from now and lasting till late July to late Aug. This is mostly for NA issues, I expect that SA issues will continue appreciate regardless as they are starting for an even better valuation standpoint and the Rand looks to have topped IT.
Thanks, big news for ANO. However, while this legislation has been pending there has been no evidence of any accumulation. Less selling to a degree, but it's hard to say.
FWIW, my ANO charts. Have a decent sized position in various accts, but have held off buying big due to liquidity and stock action. If volume comes in and Rand drops below .14 in the next few months I'll probably double or triple my existing shares.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6693453
ANO looking ripe for a big move here. Interest non-existant. HMY and GFI seems poised for a big move which should lead the sector higher.
ANO 3 month trendline
2 year hovering right at 50 ema and lots of room to run just to trendline. Should be a good LT buy/hold here.
HMY chart 60 min and daily both fairly bullish.
Daily showing inverse H&S, bullish divergences on MACD and PPO, still above 13 ema and held and tested 50 ema recently, BB converging for big move
60 min showing correction to 50% fib holding.
Will only start to get worried if HMY closes under 7.4 again or under 50 ema. Rand also looks to have topped IT.
Retail holders looks good for a short.
In at 96.9. OBV ugly and other divergences apparent in chart. Not to mention consumer should be getting tapped out.
WFMI - Pig of a stock finally looks like it's breaking down ST
Should target anywhere from 110 to as low as 100-105. Value wise it should be closer to $60-70, but we'll leave that for another day. Short around 119. Hoping for some help from the broad mrk as well the next few days.
*** GPXM weekly chart ***
*** GPXM ***
FWIW. Chart is not coming thru w/notations. Sorry. Need to set to weekly mode and draw trendlines.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=gpxm,uu[r,a]waclyyay[pc50][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg][J50...
Breaking above weekly trendlines here. Was surprised by today's move, now I know the reason why. Volume was rather light considering the tone of the article, but sellers were also absent. I still hold a large number of shares and on average this is probably 2-3% of my overall portfolio which is rather large given it's market cap. Will increase my holdings if/when the mine gets final permitting and moly prices are still strong.
As for the PMs I still continue to believe the best risk/reward is in the SA issues ST, IT, and LT here. I think the degree to which the Rand has fallen has kept some investors on the sidelines not wanting to buy near a perceived Rand/Gold peak. The first major dip will probably be bought hard. HMY is currently my largest holding.
**** Gold related - HMY/GFI ******
HMY sells a little over half it's GFI stake.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh60481_2005-06-03_09-58-59_l03....
>> GPXM, Golden Phoenix received some permits. <<
Final permits. Not just any permits. This is huge news. Expected, but still stock is risky enough that most were waiting for the news. Another round of buyers probably won't get in until production starts but by then it could be anywhere from .35 to .55. We'll see.
*********** Gold related rambling ***********
Agree on the ample opportunity to buy PMs even post revaluation, if any. So many stocks near their lows even if they spike 10%+ they're still cheap IT, LT. GATA never seems to have the scoop on anything timing wise. The fact that I've seen more than one article on this leads me to believe China will disappoint the market at least in the very ST. Maybe a few weeks or months from now, but I don't remember the last time China did anything when the market expected/wanted it? Do you? Thanks for the Saville as always. Going to get off my butt shortly and subscribe. Been slammed w/real world stuff of late and trying to stay away from the computer. It's tempting to trade this whip saw action, but more and more markets and PMs looking like they'll follow Saville's script. I honestly wouldn't be suprised to see HUI 120 again later in the year if things really wash out. I don't think that's the most likely target, it just wouldn't surprise me. Probably 150 to 160 area more likely. Euro at 1.2855 again. Gold really getting setup for a slam if China doesn't revalue. If/when Euro breaks 1.275 (not too far away now) it goes to 1.25 in short order. It seems like there is hope that the Fed will give indications at this meeting that they'll stop after this hike. I'd be very surprised if Greenspan throws the market a bone ST. He'll want to wash out more of the excess and he'll want more data pts. Maybe a week or two after the meeting he'll make some comments, but ST we haven't even had the Dow close below 10,000 yet.
Rambling a bit I guess.
*** Moly related post (GPXM) ***
>> For all I know, it could be "naked shorting", but, if so, it's of a domestic nature because I'm under the impression that that GPXM successfully got themselves delisted from the Berlin Exchange about a year ago. <<
Yes, that's correct. Spoke w/CFO this morning for about 15 min. Naked shorting is not the reason. It's probably just a case of a technical breakdown combined w/those waiting for the final permits. Will add more in a PM when I have time.
*** Moly related post (GPXM) ***
>> For all I know, it could be "naked shorting", but, if so, it's of a domestic nature because I'm under the impression that that GPXM successfully got themselves delisted from the Berlin Exchange about a year ago. <<
Yes, that's correct. Spoke w/CFO this morning for about 15 min. Naked shorting is not the reason. It's probably just a case of a technical breakdown combined w/those waiting for the final permits. Will add more in a PM when I have time.
Seems very positive in several respects. I'm scratching my head as to why it's still priced at .11-.12. Are you still sticking to your plan of only buying after it closes above .22?
I have added more today between .12 and .125. Will probably settle back around .11 after the news today but I want a full position ahead of the final permitting. I've heard naked shorting in Germany could be responsible for languishing at these prices, but that alone I don't think is reason enough given the potential here and the latest bit of news over the past few months.
Any opinion on PFE now that it looks like it's bottomed? First resistance around 27.5, then 29. Do you think it can take both of those out in the next few weeks based upon today's new? Long around 25.6.
>> unless I see a easing of the malaise that the 'hyped-up' IMF sales seems to have wrought over the gold complex... <<
Seems to me entirely Euro related still. Euro and Yen both breaking down, but the good news is that both have pretty good support not too much further down. Probably corresponds w/about 87 on the Dollar index, but don't really follow that much anymore. Watching the currencies directly.
GERN - As long as you're starting to do more than just charting maybe you should read this:
http://www.geron.com/showpage.asp?code=prod
http://www.geron.com/showpage.asp?code=prodcatv
Their non-stem cell drugs at the very least support a market cap of 200-300+ mil imho. Add in the cash and you're getting the stem cell patents, potential cures for next to nothing. Geron's biggest problem is getting it's story out imho as evidenced by the recent rise of STEM, ASTM, and VIAC. Bush doesn't help matters, but again I would argue that it's mostly perception. Bush is not trying to kill embryonic stem cell research or cures.
I don't recall saying to buy it based upon a buyout. There are lots of other reasons to buy imho. To me any close above 8.3 today is a breakout. It may not break above the 9.5 level on this run, but I certainly wouldn't want to be shorting here.
Battleship GERN blowing shorts out of the sky.
A short at these levels makes absolutely no sense to me.
Maybe near the recent highs around 9.5, but here?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=gern,uu[r,a]daclyyay[pc13!c21!c32][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9...
>> I am one of the 90% of SI that has been banned from his thread. I was just wondering what he was up to....thats all <<
Quite the disingenuous hyperbole.
Why don't you ask him? I think he's been posting quite a bit the past few weeks. What's your point?
>> Gern has no reason to rise currently.<<
Well, other than saying you're short you've never given it a reason to fall either. Don't look now but your short just got more expensive.
GERN rumor
http://www.umdi.net/inv_merix.htm
Merix is private and they already own a substantial stake. Don't look for them to make a denial statement anytime soon. Seems like shorts are playing w/fire here chart wise on a close above 8.3.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=gern,uu[r,a]daclyyay[pc13!c21!c32][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GERN,uu[r,a]eaclyyay[pa8.3][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9][J4403...
>> For full year, the company sees revenue in the range of $39.8 billion to $40.0 billion and earnings of between $1.09 and $1.11, including stock-based compensation expense. Analysts currently expect the company to report earnings of $0.32 per share for the second quarter and $1.26 per share for the full year. <<
That would seem like a big miss going forward, but the stock doesn't reflect it. I'm guessing the 1.26 estimate does not include stock options. Strange.
Shorts are gonna get creamed in the ST again. Bingo.
How's that?