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Wednesday, August 24, 2005 10:40:07 AM
HUI multi-year breakouts
Ideally HUI should hold 200 on this pullback, but given COTs and the manner in which the PMs are acting relative to gold I suspect we'll breach this level by just enough to flush out those who trade solely on TA. 190-195 seems reasonable, but even a move down to 180 again would not suprise me if POG goes under 420 again which it could if the COT is proven correct. This should be a fast move down followed by a relatively fast move up as well (April 2005?). I suspect this will be the final shakeout prior to a very nice move in gold and PM stocks.
Going to hold a core thru this period as I'm uncertain of the ST targets, but feel relatively confident IT and LT.
Biggest concern continues to be an '87 type crash where everything gets liquidated. 2nd concern here would be that too much technical damage would be done ST on a move below 200 and that we could spend up to 2-3 more months testing/basing in the 175-200 range prior to the next really strong move.
Ideally HUI should hold 200 on this pullback, but given COTs and the manner in which the PMs are acting relative to gold I suspect we'll breach this level by just enough to flush out those who trade solely on TA. 190-195 seems reasonable, but even a move down to 180 again would not suprise me if POG goes under 420 again which it could if the COT is proven correct. This should be a fast move down followed by a relatively fast move up as well (April 2005?). I suspect this will be the final shakeout prior to a very nice move in gold and PM stocks.
Going to hold a core thru this period as I'm uncertain of the ST targets, but feel relatively confident IT and LT.
Biggest concern continues to be an '87 type crash where everything gets liquidated. 2nd concern here would be that too much technical damage would be done ST on a move below 200 and that we could spend up to 2-3 more months testing/basing in the 175-200 range prior to the next really strong move.
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