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123, You make some valid points but your conclusions drawn are just the opposite of what you may think, imo. Lawyers will find any conceivable way to bill so if there was any evidence whatsoever they would have opened a lawsuit. That is the problem, no lawsuits looking to claw back money. LG's analysis may be right but naive in reference to getting those assets back if they ever did exist. imo
well said
hope so, but unlikely.
shadow, like I have been saying for several months, the value moving forward is in wmih, that is if the bod is on the up and up and truly wants to build a strong large cap company. Only time will tell. Escrow holders dreaming of the big payday is dying with every jpm press release. it sux but what can you do.
This is why escrows don't have a prayer. After 7 years, jpm now begins to talk about stuff like this as an after thought. Whose books were those loans on, the wamu bank or holding company. It doesn't matter because no one on behalf of wamu is going after them. So what does jpm do now, after 7 years knowing they are untouchable, they start pr-ing what a great acquisition wamu was, lol. imo
123, you are exactly right, this is the main problem. The wamu trustee is very seasoned and he has investigated the heck out of potential asset recovery. If major assets were out there he would be fighting for them.
JPMC is the scum of the earth. If money is in a jpm bank, ie, madoff, ect..the trustee has to fight tooth and nail for jpm to turn that money over to the estate(s). I see it all the time when I flip bk companies. Bottom line, no one is fighting for escrow monies and it surely is not going to fall out of the sky into escrow laps. I feel for those that are so hopeful based on a few posters who speculate billions coming their way. That is why I post, those who think wamu is getting a windfall imo are very inexperienced on how the game is played.
On the other hand, it would not surprise me that their analysis has merit but those assets that could have been their are long gone. imo
yes, as I have said so many times before. I also have loaded up on wmih shares as I think they are much more valuable then my escrows. I need to do some thinking over the weekend. I thought KKR was as clean as clean could be regarding their m&a, then the sec fine comes out. it is bothersome to me because my weighting in wmih is way beyond a little spec play for me and everyone I told to go long. I made good coin for the 50ish sent mark but still I don't like sec investigations into one of my partners, ie, kkr. imo
thx for the follow up explanation.
So who is going to force the issue to find out if assets are there that belong to the holding company, ie, escrow. do you not see the issue. No one is fighting to get the books open because either there is not a large pile of assets or no one cares. imo oh yea, that's right, jpm is going to play nice and tie some bows around billions in assets and turn them over, that's the jpm way, lol.
yes, I was here in 08, hmm, the trustee can't see the books so he just does nothing, nope, that is not how it works. If he thought there was huge assets there he would have sued. Let's look at it the other way. If he can't see the books, then when are they ever going to be viewed and who is going to force the fdick and jpm to open them up. Maybe the judge will say mother may I see the books, lol. The assets are gone if they ever did exist. imo
bk, why, because very little of this was ever posted on this board. With all the speculation of monies flowing whichever way I don't remember any discussions saying that 22.5% of certain damages collected would be coming back to wmih. that's why. Some of you speculate about billions so I guess 8 million is just not worth the discussions. lol
dm, a trustee has a couple of fiduciary responsibilities and one is to find money belonging to the estate. They had unlimited resources in this situation to do so. Don't you think if largess money was there they would have found it. Do you think an estate trustee is scared of jpm or the fdick. Not! There is no large chunk of assets coming back to escrows. It just is not in the cards. JPM sliced, diced and laundered all those assets legally per gaap a long time ago. You can't keep billions hidden from a trustee. If it was even remotely speculated by the trustee that there were/are assets missing/stolen/lost/fraudulently conveyed it would have been documented in their reports for all to read. they are gone. imo
So wmih pocketed some nice coin, hmmm, I think this surprised most. Question is how did they retain a percentage of this lawsuits settlement. I wonder if it was part of the por or did "the company" help fund the legal fees. hmmm, imo
AZ, what I have said all along, the reason escrows won't get much dough is because if money was huge, the vulture attorneys would have filed several lawsuits and the trustee would be in claw back mode. Since, no lawsuits, no money. And now you agree, no lawsuits going to be filed, is that correct. imo
denny, I know exactly what you are talking about, jpm dumped over a 100 billion plus. There have been a dozen articles about it. What the escrow speculators think is that was/were wamu assets and they are not. They are big financial institution assets that were parked at jpm and jpm dumped them for regulatory reasons. imo
shadow, thanks for the feedback, as you can see, no significant dollar amounts are stated. Like I have said many times, the trustees role is to estimate with real dollar figures any potential funds/assets coming back. When I read the 10k when it came out, no dollars, no strategy discussed for claw backs or lawsuits, nothing. That is the problem with the happy go luck escrow crowd. They think they have figured out the holy grail and they are wrong because they just don't understand bk's and fiduciary responsibility of the trustee. imo, thanks again for the feedback
bban, it is not the role of the trustee to take a passive approach, ie, just wait for assets to be handed over to them, it is their role to go FIND the assets, that is what the fiduciary responsibility is, ie, claw back. have you ever read any other companies bk trustee report(s).
fwh, you guys get an inch and you take a mile. no where does it say that jpm divested over a 100 billion of wamu assets and gave them to the fdick. what they did per the new banking regs is returned monies that were deposited by other banking institutions as a safe guard. jpm did not want the capital exposure for other institutions money. sorry, try again. imo
bkshadow, I partially agree, but please humor me, what numbers are the trustee reporting as estimated recoveries. hmmm, is it billions like many are saying.
do you just make this up as you go along. there is a process that a bk trustee uses and for you to say that it is not "ripe" yet for a lawsuit you have no idea what you are talking about.
It is the fiduciary responsibility of the trustee to identify and communicate through the 10k and other means what the potential return will be to the creditors, etc.. You don't hear a thing about the trustee stating there is more money to come based on ....... and that is his job which to any rational thinker would indicate that there is not a lot of money floating around that the trustee believes belongs to creditors etc.. and escrow holders.
imo
wrongo dutch, they are all the same. there are assets, liabilities and potential assets based on claw backs. the trustee files a monthly or quarterly or annual report discussing the situation of repayment to creditors, bond holders and shareholders (usually wiped out).
What you guys do not want to admit to yourself is that there is nothing going on behind the scene regarding negotiations for stolen assets of wamu holding, why do I know this because it would be stated in the wmilt 10k, it has to be, it's the law. The trustee must mention all activities taking place to procure all assets that may belong to the trust, that's what they get paid for. Read any bk trustee report and it defines the claw back opportunities, with wmilt, nothing is stated regarding claw backs which means there are none.
Oh yea, jpmc and fdick are so nice that they are just going to turn over billions because they are scared that they will go to jail, that's right, I forgot about that.
Do I think that there were wamu holding company assets given to jpm that now belong to escrow, YES, but they are long gone, sliced, diced, washed, and laundered per gaap gray areas.
imo
sorry dude, It's millions but like I said, my analysis says zero and yes, since I have escrows I did do my dd based on reading the wmilt 10k year after year.
People in the know or speculators would be shouting from the rooftops if there was even 1 billion out there imo
rockie, more likely, 20-30 million but my guess zero, why, 2 reasons:
1. No lawsuits filed on behalf of escrows over the years stating damages in excess of ?. If no lawsuits filed, no way, no how is any substantial money coming back.
2. The wmilt trustee has never stated a game plan to claw back money. In every other bk I have ever traded, the trustee lists the assets available to creditors and potential assets available to creditors based on claw back likelihood.
JPM unfortunately won with the help of the feds and wamu equity lost. bottom line. NO SUBSTANTIAL MONEY COMING BACK. Dollar cost average into wmih if you want to make your money back. Action people, action.
imo
walters, are you kidding me, no one wants to go to jail, lol, so the fdic and/or jpm are going to turn 80 billion over to escrows because they don't want to go to jail. hmmm, interesting, do you remember 2008, how many of the bankers, rating agency employees, mortgage people, hedge fund guys, naked shorting mm's, insider traders during the financial crisis, went to jail, zero, and you think that the reason 80 billion will be turned over is because jamie dimon and those at the fdic are scared to go to jail.
Is it not a whole lot more likely that there is no 80 billion to be turned over, if there was, don't you think those set to make the most money would be screaming loud and clear and if that did not work which of course it hasn't where are the lawsuits claiming billions in damages.
you say you can't hide 80 billion, then where is it. any money/assets that may have belonged to wamu holding have been sliced, diced, washed, laundered legally per gaap gray areas and are long gone. My analysis indicated there may have been about 100 million that belonged to wamu holding unencumbered.
wow, that is one of the best posts I've read in a long time. imo
spider, if you are talking wmih stock you are right it is going to take time. when the first m&a is complete and then the move to a real exchange, that is when wmih becomes real. If the m&a is a small no name deal then things are fishy. If they go down the same path as cpmk or if cpmk is acquired by wmih then the wmih bod is not on the up and up. So let's hope that we have a big time acquisition and a quick move to either the nyse or naz.
If you are talking escrows, they will have very little value short term, long term, it doesn't matter, they are dead but not yet buried. imo
rockie, you get it. As much as the go go " I love my escrows" club wants to believe. There are not billions, there are not hundreds of millions coming to escrows. The power brokers won't ever let it happen. The dream of jpm managing wamu assets just waiting to turn them over is ridiculous, the thought that the fdic has been managing the assets for wamu is ridiculous. Whatever was there and I do believe there were assets that should not have gone to jpm, they are long gone, they have to be, sliced, diced, laundered is jpm's way. There is not even a lawsuit listing damages filed on behalf of escrow holders so how in the heck can people think a big pile of billions is coming our way. laughable and sad at the same time. imo
Be logical, if there was a huge amount of assets coming back you would know about it by now
Keep the dream alive, go to jail, yea right just like all the other bankers, lol
Omg, you do realize that wamu would have had to declare bk for certain
it's very simple, i have been a trader for a long time and have seen and have been involved in a lot of different scenarios. I have traded bk companies for 25 years and have seen a lot.
in the wamu case it is very very simple at this point, not so much years ago. You can't hide 10s of billions in assets for an extended period and not have the trustee or lawyers for claimants come after them hard.
the fdic and jpm have had so much time without any watch dog to slice dice and launder what they stole. it's unfortunate but true.
just today, greenberg wins a major lawsuit but the judge awards, zero yes zero damages and the feds get to keep over 25 billion in profits and share holders still wiped out. THE SHAREHOLDERS WON IN COURT AND RECEIVED ZERO, why would anyone think escorws of wamu will get a windfall. it's laughable. imo
not at all, wmih has great potential. the nol's alone are worth a couple of billion and with kkr behind them and 600 million plus waiting to do M&A, the future is very bright imo
ds, very lucid point, unfortunately that is not how the world works in high finance. in your opinion, who is evaluating the assets on behalf of escrows.
roach, so you don't think a boat load of assets or cash are coming escrows way, great that you are a realist.
where is the court case explaining escrows position and claim for damages in the 10s of billions, come on you guys, think reality. imo
really, so, who is doing the comparing on escrows behalf. please let me know what lawsuits have been filed on escrows behalf claiming billions in assets. not one lawsuit claiming anything other then some small time debt holders for millions and deutsche bank and d-bank just lost in court against jpm, lol. dreamers vs. realist.
the real value is in wmih not my escrows. imo
yep, big ole mess that the fdic and jpm want to hide fore ever, not just to quietly give assets back to escrows. think about it, what is more likely, that fdic and jpm are going to tie a nice bow around all those billions and give them to us or the assets have been sliced, diced, laundered per legal gaap and are gone for good. if those assets in the dollars you guys are talking are there, there would be much less speculation and a lot more facts about them. the trustee alone would have been yelling from the roof tops to claw them back. it is their only job in a bk. imo
afraid not, very similar in so many ways. Oh yea, you are probably right, fdic and jpm have been oh so kind to manage escrows assets just waiting to tie a bow around them and give them to us escrow holders.
large green, maybe you should read the aig verdict and then rethink your post. sheesh
Below is why my escrow shares are not very valuable, if any value at all. From a big picture perspective, wamu and aig are the same in the eyes of the government. The government bragged about how they made money on AIG, I don't think they will brag about making money on wamu, all that money went to jpmc, those scumbags. It's so ridiculous but you can't fight the government and for that matter jpm.
================================================================
The U.S. set illegal terms in demanding American International Group Inc. stock for an $85 billion bailout during the financial crisis, but that doesn’t mean AIG investors deserve compensation, a court ruled.
What began as a long-shot lawsuit by Hank Greenberg’s Starr International Co. gained credibility over years of failed government attempts to dismiss it. During an eight-week trial, Starr’s lawyer David Boies grilled Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson and Timothy Geithner, and U.S. Court of Claims Judge Thomas Wheeler repeatedly ruled in Greenberg’s favor.
“The government’s unduly harsh treatment of AIG in comparison to other institutions seemingly was misguided and had no legitimate purpose,” Wheeler said in Monday’s decision. “The question is not whether this treatment was inequitable or unfair, but whether the government’s actions created a legal right of recovery for AIG’s shareholders.”
Wheeler’s answer was no.
Greenberg -- who had sought at least $25 billion in damages for shareholders -- got nothing. Though the absence of an award may temper the judge’s dramatic rebuke of the government handling of the bailout, the ruling may still limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to deal with the next crisis.
Starr sued the U.S. in November 2011, claiming the government broke the law by insisting on 80 percent of AIG stock and imposing a 14 percent interest rate on the $85 billion loan.
Government Counter
The government countered, saying the demands were justified since the loan was high-risk. The bailout conditions were similar to those offered AIG in a private rescue, one that fell through over doubts about its ability to repay, Kenneth Dintzer, the government’s lead lawyer, argued.
Though the bailout ballooned to $182 billion, AIG returned to the black and repaid the assistance in 2012, leaving the government with a $22.7 billion profit.
“In the end, the Achilles’ heel of Starr’s case is that, if not for the government’s intervention, AIG would have filed for bankruptcy, Wheeler said in the ruling. ‘‘In a bankruptcy proceeding, AIG’s shareholders would most likely have lost 100 percent of their stock value.”
The case is Starr International Co. v. U.S., 11-cv-779, U.S. Court of Federal Claims (Washington).
this was fun reading, have not read this in years and it really makes you think.
my favorite line was that wamu had zero cdo's, complex derivatives or other esoteric financial instruments.
This is classic and in hindsight amazing. You had to show me this didn't you. Now I need to vent. thanks, lol
The above statement says it all. Fishman knew exactly what was going on with the likes of jmp, citi, goldman, b of a, etc.. They were all caught up with synthetic cdo's which is what caused the financial crisis to begin with. Why, THE SYNTHETIC CDO'S HAD ZERO COLLATERAL ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SO JUST A VERY SMALL INCREASE IN THE MORTGAGE LOAN DEFAULT RATE OF THE CDO'S PORTFOLIO AND ALL HECK BROKE LOOSE, WHY, NO COLLATERAL AND WHEN THE SHORTS WHO TOOK THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ACTION FIGURED THAT OUT, THEY JUST PILED ON TO START THE CRASH.
FISHMAN KNEW THE PROBLEMS ALL THE INVESTMENT AND FED RESERVE BANKS WERE IN BECAUSE OF THESE CDO'S. UNFORTUNATELY, HE WAS AN OUTSIDER AND GOLDMAN AND JPM HAD THE EAR OF BLAIR AND REICH AND THE PERSON THAT WAS REALLY ORCHESTRATING ALL THE ACTIONS, PAULSON.
WHY THE F HE DIDN'T BETTER EXPLAIN TO PAULSON, ETC.. THAT THE OTHER BANKS WERE BUILT ON A HOUSE OF CARDS AND BETTER EXPLAIN JPM'S, GOLDMANS, ETC.. PONZI SCHEME IS BEYOND ME.
If he would have been able to do that, it is not hard to imagine but wamu could have been the buyer of a seized jpm etc.. but again, Fishman was not a wall street insider.
Crazy, but it really could have happened that way. There could have been no more jpmc with all the assets going to wamu, coulda shoulda, lol.
That is how lucky jpm was in my opinion.
Great read but again, means nothing now, why, because it now is a he said she said and also, politically no one cares. After this many years with the assets sliced, diced and laundered per gaap gray areas it is a moot point, unfortunately, again NO ONE CARES EXCEPT US. all imo