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I'l bet he uses that ten minute conference to put things into perspective and clear up misconceptions from the last CC.
Cosmo, no names but they developed a clear film that inserts into a window and generates electricity. They won a technical award but that is it. They have been hyped by a bunch of newsletters. Wave has much more going for it. It is a real story.
Ot. My other stock has gone from .05 to 2.80 in 52 weeks. No earnings, no partners, just a great patent idea, story and promotion by some newsletters. I believe over 100 million shares outstanding. I just sold some to buy WAVE! Let's hope I am right twice. (I only got in at .40)
Possible explanation. If Steven wants to pass assets at anadvantagous time to his children, he would do so if he believed the assets were about to become more valuable. We know his basis must be low. This way he transfers assets before a rise in value. There is no future inheritance tax issue. That is why people form trusts and partnerships. I am not an expert in this area but believe this is a very possible explanation. This happened on another stock I own. The President transfered all his shares just leaving himself a 51% interest. Everybody cried but shortly thereafter the stock took off. Lower gain for president and lower inheritance tax.
Snackman, looking forward to meeting you pretty soon than.
I think it does. That is for a seat. That is directly through Wave and I believe that is what SKS stated. Anyone, clarification.
Everyone:275 million over 3 years is a conservative number for us over three years. Does everyone understand this or am I making a mistake.(not) Taking SKS's 50 million,if we don't sell anything new over the next three years. Assume that ONLY 10% of enterprise customers (incredibaly conservative) times $50 per seat and you get $275 million. That's about 2.50 per share in earnings. With a PE ratio of just ten (ridiculous) we would be at a $25 share price. This is not hype. It is a conservative outlook. Is there a mistake somewhere in the above? This does not include the other 300 million machines predicted by IDC.(bashers excluded) And by the way, in order to really maintain a positive attitude we should set a real milestone for a real Vegas get together like WAVE at 10,20,... but something. Then we have a target. This is happening.
OT:from a Motley Fool article.Sounds familiar
In March of 2002, you could have picked up shares of NetEase for all of $0.65 a share. If you'd had the foresight to take a shot back then, you would be sitting on a 130-bagger now. The shares were recommended in December 2004 to subscribers of the Motley Fool Rule Breakers newsletter. It hasn't been a 130-bagger since then, though followers of the premium-growth stock selection are sitting on a respectable 67% gain, 10 times better than the S&P 500's performance in that time.
Ainge you glad you're early?
The key to spotting these fiscal buzzer-beaters is to recognize where certain trends are going and then pick out the logical beneficiaries. Don't worry; I didn't take you this deep into this analogy only to taunt you with winning picks that you and I missed. Let's take a closer look at a few trends that are shaping our future and discover where the opportunities are sitting.
Cosmo, I disagree. You can be sure that the salary does not cross his mind. This is personal now. He has dedicated his life to this and does not want to fail. It would devastate anyone. I am sure his family and friends would testify to the toll that such an undertaking takes on a man. I have currently,taken on a much smaller project, a new product in a new industry,and can testify to the stess and sheer volume of work.
Wave has performed a miracle. The money they have spent to create an insustry is nothing. To launch a national product today, like a new line of cosmetics or cereal can cost 30 or 40 million. They have created an industry, are dominating that industry and are spending money to pull away from the competition. As President of my own company, watching SKS balance between spending on necessity, investing on technology and gaining a WORLDWIDE LEADERSHIP in an industry filled with geniouses, I am humbled. We can all sit back and try to find fault. I personally hated how the 50 million units was presented, but the company has done what very few have done before. SKS must eat, sleep and drink Wave Sysems. The stress must be unbearable. He has to anticipate what the market is going to want at least a year or two into the future. If he would have made one serious mistake, just one, in the last five years we would have nothing but loss carry forward. I look forward to the day when I can buy him adrink in Vegas. If he continues to pull this off it will be the source of a future book. I believe with the giants that he is now friendly with, and hanging out with, our future success is probable. Another year or two and we will benefit from today's hard work and perseverence.
Nice to see that at least someone else is as nuts as I am. That only assumes 50% market share of a market that we currently see. It is not the mobile space, ATM, or others. This could be the beginning of a nice 5 year ramp up. I will be very patient once we are in double digits. That being said, then I have my first problem ever with SKS. Without hype, when your company is in desperate need of getting it's share price up, his presentation was the low point of his career. I love him, but this was not smart. Conservative,OK, but not even letting people see the potential?
Awk, you are amazing. Thank you for the clarification. Using your math we theoretically could be a hundred dollar stock based upon just the 50 million number and 40% turn on. Assuming a 50% market share and we could be higher. Is it just late and my mind has been subsumed by cabernet or is the above, just theoretically, correct. Am I doing something wrong mathematically? The above is only on a p/e of twelve? Like SKS I know many things may prevent the above, but.......?
Go, the million comment was if all salesman stopped selling today, that was the amount already contracted for over the next three years. He said that these were sales for products with SKU numbers. Actual product that we were bundled in. It excludes everything else, all pipeline, all potential turn on rate, upgrade, etc. This is the number that the analyst seemed surprised and said bsically "so you do three hundred and something now, that means 8 times what you are doing today" (very rough translation). SKS said "yes".
The CC went fine. Some positives some negatives. The negative was the slow adoption of the turn on rate until 2007. I was hoping for a positive surprise. The positive was the analyst who got Steven to commit to the statement that there will be fifty million computers with us bundled in the next three years according to the OEM predictions. These are ONLY including those computers that SKS can point to a SKU number for a known product. This breaks down to 2.5 million per quarter of known business without turn ons. That gets us to half of break even with ONLY known business assuming that there are no salesman selling for the next three years. He sounded tired and like he had an SEC representative standing next to him. He was very cautious, in my opinion overly cautious. He could have been more upbeat and delivered the same messagge and it would have been peceived slightly better. He didn't like the dilution but was happy that that shares were in solid hands?(sounded like maybe holding off an unwelcome takeover or control bid.) All in all lots of hard work by management. Also the part where the analyst asks why we are spending so much money. Short answer-to widen our dominance.
Working on Vista support. Thats why spending money. Dramatically seperating ourselves from any competition. Making it difficult for them to keep up. Getting to the point of break even.
It's getting better. 8 times this quarters revenue. 25 million for sure over 3 years. Maybe 250 million over 3 years if 10% turn on rate. He is very cautious.
Awk, if PP shares dry up then .80 today.
Right about now a big PR would be Oh so nice, and add to the fuel. Come on Steven, NOW, pull the trigger.
Thanks everyone. IE worked. I was using firefox. After watching just a few minutes I feel great. As soon as this PP flood subsides I expect us see higher share prices. If we rise to a reasonable share price, a future financing round if necessary will hurt much less.
Did anyone else have trouble getting mshow to work??
I disagree strongly that the share price will not move until there is revenue. It is the reasonable expectation of revenue that moves share price, not the actual revenue. When enough people realize that Wavx is in the position that they are in, the share price will move. Gateway and dell with us on the desktop. Seagate giving us a spin. (sorry) Announcments with details of our government contracts, Diebold systems, how much is ours? If people would be able to point to contracts that would give us a billion dollars of revenue in 2008 who believes that the share price would not take off now. A few more announcements, contracts, media attention and our slog is over.
Dell, Seagate,Gateway and others have risked much on a tiny company that some claim could go out of business. They have based the direction of their security offerings through us. Changes for them would be a huge undertaking and very expensive. They believe (KNOW) Wavx willstill be standing when the dust clears. We know only bits and pieces for sure, but the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. WE ARE EVERYWHERE. This feels like watching a pimple getting ready to pop. (slow motion of course). But when it does, and it will soon, can you imagine the sweet relief.
What I like most about the 8-k is the four months estimated length of the contract. For the govenment, that is flying. There can be no doubt that the govt is moving full speed into tpm's, nor can there be any doubt that we are involved in this huge ramp up. Now, if the world only knew! Schwab did not carry the 8-k report as I am sure many others did not.
I have read that before. The problem as usual is that all of us know. The rest of the investing world doesn't quite realize Wave's potential. It's the potential that should have us higher than a buck. All we need then is confirmation of revenue to start the show. We need SCREAMING HEADLINES! LIKE THIS. Oh well, soon.
I hope this P.R is Steven saying "hey, it's us. We're going to be in these boxes", but I am not allowed to say anything.
High volume days will eventually attract more investor money looking for a long ride. This is a lot of traders. Many of us are fully invested. The best publicity for new investors to see us is Wave hitting all of the volume charts for a few days. One more big anouncement soon would be great. Sony? Govt contract. All of Barges contentions? And the list goes on.
A large, profitable, respected Japanese company does not make these type of announcements lightly. Did you see their 3 year goal? "In a period of three years beginning in fiscal 2005, NTT DATA aims to install VANADIS in 70 companies or organizations, thereby generating sales of E15 billion." The fact that we have been working with them and none of us knew it. The fact that Wave is a major player and that a lot of companies will at least look at Wave as one of their possible choices. We have all become slightly numb from years of waiting. I remember when Wave went above $45 on a belief that Intel might use us. Now the world of computer security knows who Wave is and a percentage of those players will give us business.
Does anyone think that Wave does not already know how much they are getting percentage or per seat from the Government deals.? There is no way that the contractor would now start to negotiate with Wave to find out how much they want per seat. This was all done before the bid. The main contractor would gather all of his bids from his sub conractors, find out what it would cost to fulfill the government bid, and then bid the job.
Now that they have won the Contract the formalities are completed. SKS knows exactly what this is worth to us. We should know very quickly. As soon as the amount is anounced we should see rapid appreciation in the sp. Two announcements of multimillion dollar contracts within days that states WAVE is getting ________million over ___years should prime the pump. Micro is right. Hard to do, but time to relax and let it unfold. Thanks to all.
The first killer app that requires TPM activation is all that is needed now. As Doma pointed out, 25 million Dells with Wave on Board did not move the share price. But what happens when the consumer is able to download premium content like, a current movie now playing in theatres. They hit the button to download but get, "Error, you must first activate your TPM". Huh, what does that mean? My computer came with a TPM. 25 million people get that same message. Teenagers trying to download the latest greatest game, etc. "Hey, Dad, you forgot to activate your TPM", will be heard accross the land. Then we will have an instant erection, of interest, in Wave. The share price will climb and we will all laugh about the rough times. Who knows, maybe even the forgotten stepchildren, wave express and Peter meter may have a part. (probably stretching now).
Technology, adoption, integration, center of the TPM universe.
That is ridiculous. Who is the world leader in computer sales? Who are they using? Who is on intel boards? Can we still be caught by others if we fail to execute. That is a different argument, but at this moment we are the leader.
Wave = world leader in one of the hottest emerging technologies on the planet. So, we know SKS is great. End of argument. We can speculate on whether someone else could have done a beter job at....what? If SKS had started getting loans instead of selling equity, think about the additional debt load. Bringing in a top well known CEO would have maybe popped the share price a bit but then what. SKS has made us the leader in a very competitive field Unfortunately, we must wait for the market to catch up. It is not in his control. We cannot judge until we know what is around the next corner.
Bought more, not only do PP investors not buy into companies about to go under, Dell and the entire TCG would look like fools to partner up with Wave if they go bust. The small omount of money may also indicate something about to pop. Maybe it would be a good time to market TV Tonic?
It would be nice to see an avalanche of defections from the infineon camp now that we are in 1.2 phase. Once there is clear evidence that this is happening I will relax with the knowledge that once the world turns on TPM, and TPM=Wave, therefore $$$.
It is on the second page of PC magazine, printed version.
Nice to see Toshiba advertising TPMs in PC mag. (Sorry if old news)
The difference in perception is amazing from those of us that read this board and those that don't. My friend, a manager for large private money clients in a major firm who has been a sceptic and has constantly warned me about puting so many of my eggs in the wave basket, called yesterday. He has been watching Wave's progress and is amazed at their positioning in their field. He asked me why the price was this low. He went on to tell me all the amazing things that he has discovered about Wave, their products, partners, GROWTH, etc. We are jaded, antsy, and tired. However my friend is not. Looking at where we are with outside eyes (experienced eyes), is a breath of fresh air. We are way too small for him to buy for his clients, but the fact that he is going to buy some for his own account speaks volumes.
Let's keep it in perspective. We are not a struggling dvelopment company trying to get noticed. We are on the BOD of the TCG with AMD, INTEL,SUN, HP, MICROSOFT, IBM. That means we have maximum exposure to THE leading companies in the world in our field. Our little WAVE has conversations over lunch with these guys. We will be in at least 12 million machines by the end of 06. A problem company is one that screams what a great product they have but no one notices. We were elected to the BOD. We are THE leader in the world in our field. Steven says continued strong growth. 99% of the IT people still do not have a clue about what WAVX can do for them. This year they will know. They will learn how to turn on their software. It will be a thing of beauty.
Oh, what the heck. It's a pattern I repeat often. A year from now, hopefully, it won't matter.
Everyone is holding on to their shares. I am trying to pick up 3000 and can't get a fill at .88 for over five minutes. Time to change order.