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Damn I’m outta nails.
Sure, I can't say that I euphorically applaud every single word in PD's post, but fully agree with the general thrust of that post. Now if you a want a little more specificity, here are the parts I think were on point in regards to the reality of where we are:
"They have no choice but GIA until someone makes an offer. Nobody wants to buy Amarin. That’s reality.
Healthcare budgets are maxed everywhere. Systems are struggling to meet the acute care crisis of day to day care. Prevention is a low priority compared to an MI in the emerg. Accountants don’t care about saving $50,000 in 5 years if it means spending an extra $3,000/year until then. The budget in 5 years will be somebody else’s problem."
"Prevention is a very hard sell. Thus, no interest. Novartis learned their lesson with The Medicine Company, overpaying for a drug they can’t sell. But at least they also got IP with that purchase. No such luck with V."
As far as Leqvio, these links show that while everyone is predicting great future sales, it is a tough slog:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/novartis-will-not-move-forward-with-uk-anti-cholesterol-drug-trial-2023-03-22/
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/novartis-lowers-ambitions-for-heart-drug-leqvio-cfo-says-1
Insurance companies are interested in 2 things. Collecting as much in premiums as they possibly can, and doing everything they can to not pay claims. I like you, get my statin for free. You know how much it costs my insurance company? Compared to my premium you might as well say 0.
Excellent post PD, describing the reality of the situation.
Yep, we will be carrying forward 3K in losses in perpetuity.
I know they are gone and no longer give a shit, but wouldn't it be nice if JT and those "investors" who urged him not to settle could take a moment of silence to reflect on what they have done to this company and this potentially fabulous drug.
Hope it works out for you Ramfan. This may sound crazy but I am scared that with my luck I would try to harvest a loss, the thing would zoom, and I would not grt the chance to get back in. I have held these shares so long, that there ought to be a third category for cap gains: short term, long term, and interminably long term.
My confusion about this, is that if this path completely knocks the Generics out of the U.S., then this should have been priority No.1 on April 1, 2020. Not knowing what all is involved and whether it even pushes the Generics out in the U.S., makes it difficult to form an opinion here.
Kind of puzzling it seems. One would think that since it is the same active ingredient all they would need to show it that it produces the same blood levels of EPA. Wouldn't think you would need outcome studies. But our bureaucracy never ceases to amaze.
Thanks TalShu for the additional information.
Surprised that many here don’t seem to comprehend that.
Oct 19, 2022 sp $1.07
Please show the every single day posts with me whining. Damn, I just defended a post of yours just a couple of days ago.
Well I guess then we can consider Jess an unhappy investor.
Whoa. We have to just look at sales. How many years now since approval? You have some big investors that probably know a lot more than us that are very disapproving of management's handling of the drug so far. Do you not know or remember of the press release touting a sale to a big Pharma, I believe Schulman was canned because of it?
I was just respectfully disagreeing with your characterization of some posters as oxymorons, but I must have touched a nerve or gotten you on a bad day for you to jump down my throat.
I personally would not characterize those who are complaining or are upset about the management of this wonderful drug, oxymorons. We are all here for the same thing. Heck, we have some very seasoned institutional investors that were/are upset with the handling of this drug by management.
Market not seemingly thinking anything good will come out of SR. BUT the market has/is/will be wrong many times past/present/future.
Some guesses about the resistance we would like to find out from Pfizer reps;
1) Not all moronic doctors are in the U.S., so could be some followers of Nissen north of the border.
2) Some docs not knowing the difference telling their patients to just take OTC omega supplements.
3) 4 pills per day causing patients to tell their doctors not to bother prescribing as they would not comply.
Not all provinces have reimbursement in place plus the fact some others only recently approved.
I wonder if these countries.....those that did not approve reimbursement look at other countries that approved reimbursement and wonder if they should have as well..... and those countries that approved reimbursement look at other countries that did not approve reimbursement and wonder if they shouldn't have as well.
They call those a widowmaker.
You didn’t think that positive reimbursement decisions were baked into the stock price at $1.15, did you?
When was the application Italy actually submitted?
Yep, Invest, I guess getting old and being retired, gives me more time to reflect about many things.
Thinking about how if when I was a young adult someone showed me a video of how life is today, I would not have believed it. Used to come on vacation to the U.S. and when my dad gave us a quarter, damn it would take all day to spend it. Now you have to have a half million just to be allowed to look at homes. The dollar has been so devalued it is unreal. One set of politicians just adds to the debt and lets the next incoming batch worry about it. It should be criminal. Sorry I got off on a tangent. I guess I am just pissed being in this investment here with Amarin for the second decade now.
I think to be fair, as a comparison, provincial reimbursements in Canada did not start until 2022, and I might be wrong on this, but some provinces still have not approved reimbursement.
Yeah but it looks like we got Nissen on the case.
Your point is well taken, but we must not forget that the control group was also on a statin.
And, what does that tell you?
Yep, Zip, we all eventually die. Some of us just hope that it is quick and painless, rather than suffering through a long illness or becoming totally dependent on others. I am most afraid of a stroke and hopefully between Vascepa, my genes, and some other variables, I will be fortunate enough to not to ever suffer a stroke.
It will take the actual revenue coming in, not just the promise of it.
I guess in their case, BP and no generic.
Meant to add that we would be beside ourselves looking at the stock price reaction if all Generics all of a sudden suspending selling V in the States.
Then I guess Amarin should be pushing.
Thanks Sleven. Too bad this sentiment is not actively ongoing in our situation:
“there will certainly be a reluctance to use it. “
Obviously we peons know very little and are always the last to find out. I'm not sure that MK/ILJIN can do much more at this time. They got the resignations accepted and the company hired the two legal firms and Morgan Stanley (correct me if that is wrong) to do this SR. I think this point they are stuck with having to wait to see what this SR produces.
But by the stock action, it does not appear that there is much headway on finding an interested buyer or there have been no leaks as such. The concern is that the botched GIA has got BP thinking that maybe Lupkynis will turn out to be a blockbuster. That is why so many deals happen right around phase III (either just before or just after results) as the acquiring BP estimates greatness and the small company has not yet gone down the GIA path and demonstrated that their drug won't sell.
I would like to find out from PG or any sharp people he employs what the holdup is in terms of the poor launch. Is it price? They have a huge markup on the drug (like 96% profit). You would think if it was price they could do something with that kind of a cushion.
Thanks for all that work Capt. At first I thought that Vascepa had increased sales last week, but looking at the last slide I can see your emphasis that it is gaining vs. Generics, but it was actually down a bit last week. The other guys were down a lot more.
It seems hard to grow the market without advertising coupled with doctors who are oblivious to what is best for their patients. Why have all these associations that incorporated V into their SOCs but no one follows it?
No question you make a good point. And, I think Jess in his post right after yours explained the situation well. To me the key was/is that PG overplayed his hand and was looking for too much in a deal.
People seem to forget or not mention what happened almost 2 years ago. Schulman wrote a release announcing the BO, but something happened to nix the deal and he of course got canned. Not being in on the negotiations no one (other than PG and some others) knows exactly what happened, but to use PG's own words, read between the lines. He played hardball and struck out. Now, if a deal happens it won't anywhere near what everyone was expecting back then.
You are right. It is just ego.
With all due respect, it is my opinion that there is a difference between "survive" and "thrive".
Cash has dropped by 10% over the last 6 months. So, as Aurinia stated in the release, the company has enough funds to continue for "several years", but ultimately one day, there will be more dilution. This was once touted as a billion dollar drug. Never happen under GIA. OH, and you are correct that PG doesn't want to sell and to continue GIA. He won't have that opportunity for more than a year.
Not to disagree, but there were posters here laughing at $30 and proclaiming it would be at least double that.
Unfortunately after these “great” earnings, and the premarket bump, we are still $2 below where the stock was 5 trading days ago.
PD, I had wanted to ask you about that Pharmacy Letter you posted on ST the other day.
In it it mentions the cost of Vascepa - $320 if I recollect. Where is that letter written and hasn’t that province issued a reimbursement decision? I was thinking Ontario.