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Gld and nugt both have put/call ratio > 1
Had it and sold it before today, d*mn.
After hours, GDX is trading lower than its closing price and NUGT higher ( bid and ask are higher than close).
On GDXJ, over 300% gain to high 2 years ago.
On GDX, about 174%.
Today, GDX up 2.81%.
GDXJ up 2.29%.
If both move in the same direction as gold (but not same relative magnitude), if both have bottomed, and if gold drops to the +/- 1100, then both have either bottomed and will keep bouncing on it in the interim, or they break recent lows as gold bottoms.
What do you think is likely and why?
I'm leaning this way also ... so will sit on some gll/dgld.
i make the mistake of paying attention to source that. .... So put on ignore ....if I ever throw someone off .... Pls do same with me...thx.
I seem to exit good positions on nugt too early by a day.
price on gold looks like a potential reversal bar on high volume; if it pops, I'll look to go long GLL/DGLD after a pop, for the drop to +/- 1100 on gold; and keep an eye on specific mining stocks. Nugt/dust aren't working for me right now.
Correction, a better scenario would be rising gold prices as oil/energy prices fall ( or margin expansion) assuming only one input cost.
It seems like the article implies that margin improvement due to declining cash costs may more than offset decline in gold prices.
Maybe it can, especially if the price of oil is expected to drop, etc., further labor cuts, etc.
If that happens while the price of gold also drops, then it seems like the hay day would be when both gold and oil bottom ( if it happened around the same time or close to it).
what would be the catalyst to make gold retrace upward from these levels?
if gold drops to <=1000, investors might pile in early ( based on GS forecast) before another leg down.
This makes sense to me. I decided to wait for this dust to settle before buying back into miners. Maybe miners will hold up on their own since already undervalued but I'll take a chance on assuming they may not.
Gotcha; ready for the miners to rock (am wondering if maybe parked in the wrong spot, there are non-miners that will do great this earnings season ). hive me a quick bump to 50. I'll take it!
With gold's decline last Q, maybe earnings for miners won't be so hot, especially for ones looking to get "flushed out".
Maybe the makers want one more quarter of struggle.
Get it over with already!
What's an estimate of "eventually"?
just now: equities up, dollar down, miners up, gold up a little.
This afternoon, miners seem to want to run like an equity with a lower dollar.....
So based on that article, are bullish or bearish?
You know, I used to read the king news, etc. and almost everything I read was written by ppl, pros with a vested interest in gold (and overly optimistic); none of the contributors (if I recall correctly) predicted the selloff in gold that started Feb 2012. Also, at Kitco. Then I letter read about the group that protested suppression of gold prices ( mostly Canadians, GATA??) and they were rarely right about price direction because it was more of a desire or wish and not what really happens.
That's an interesting article, but I'm kind of suspect of the sponsor.
They're right some of the time of course, but it seems to me that when gold prices are manipulated, it's banks or some large players doing it and it usually comes with surprise.
tank with a resolution when the market goes up ??
Sorry for typos....on an iPad that needs a new top cover.
Apparently, several analyst see gold dropping to +/- 1000 in next 3+ months. between now and then, I heard at least three different professional (or semi-professional) opinions: (1) range bound then swan dive going i to jan '14, (2) rise into december from here, (2) steady fall from here to the lows.
Today a large number if dec. call options were traded around 155ish (gld) and a floor trader on cnbc was looking at an end of year run vs. a citibank analyst that forecasted the lower 6+ or longer months out for next yea low targets.
So, the forecasts are all over the map. I'm inclined to stick with the range bound thesis that could accommodate the 155 dec. call options ( seems kind of high but who really knows) and the commentary presented by many that miners have bottomed.
So where could miners end up in the next 3 months. I'm inclined to think that miners could rise with gold within the relative range; to be n the safe side, play a smaller relative range.
Of the top 10 holdings in GDX, most of them have formed higher lows or are flat at a bottom.
SPDR Gold Shares December 155 Call; 10,000 Contracts Traded @$0.15; Currently $123.87
Interesting. Thx!
Çorrection on an earlier post ( and also posted by another poster):
50
i seem to recall some work by the IMF about moving to three major currencies, somehow pegged on a common standard with a lot of smaller currencies gone, etc.
Why wouldn't Europe and the US want to work together on this.
Have't the big three been working on this for awhile? is it really such a surprise or is it sensationalism?
I get it. Thx.
NM, I'm a budette. Only excuse I have for not knowing more and not a very good one. Sorry.
If gdx/gld/nugt are range bound, maybe NUGT will go to 52.
I guess that was your point, e.g. That dollar and gold are not always inversely correlated. Aagree.
Sounds like republicans and banks are run ing the show and ready for another opportunity to transfer more their way even if it means default. (I'm not politically oriented so apologize in advance for not being on top of it; thank you for sharing your thoughts). based on the charts, if there is a drop in /ES due to strong yen or whatever, it wouldn't necessarily mean a big pop in gold/miners. Could be wrong of course.
.... Save the day or use the drop as an excuse to push some bill through, maybe after the deadline or by,to keep their positions by looking like heroes, to stay in office to keep the transfer of wealth ti g going, etc.
Wondering if govt will come in final hour or a week later to sabe the day.
Based on your more recent posts, it sounds like the govt wants to keep things going and gold will drop further while the market stays propped up a little while longer. On CNBC on friday ( we don't watch full coverage, just caught a clip), there was a panel discussion about the market forecast for next week, (I think this was on "Closing Bell") and there was one comment to the effect that margin and risk were increasing but not quit to the level .... ( to do a margin call and pull the rug out from everyone ????).
On UUP ( US dollar ) weekly chart ( 3 years), Darvas alerts ( as a system) fail almost every time. On /GC and GLD, more often they work but fail sometimes though not always on the next weekly bar after a buy or sell signal. interesting.
The replies woke me from dreams this morning, lol. that's what I get for sleeping next to an iPad, lol.
Great posts last 24+.
Great post. I'm inclined to play a few pops but for the most part wait for a bottom in gold ~ +/- 1000.
GDX could pop, then drop, and follow gold's direction, but maybe not overshoot as much on a relative basis, or maybe overshoot and take out past lows ( would be good for acquisitions by bigger players, right).
If there is a big swoon coming ( hard to be patient over a few months, wish it would come sooner), just wait for that.
Thinking out loud. I've yet to catch an all time (5 year ) bottom, due to impatience and jumping the gun, and taking some analysts literally.
Maybe the swoon will come before January to catch people by surprise.