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Loop I have not been looking specifically for any trends, this one though is burned in my memory from the ericy settlement so whenever I see afterhours volume spikes I pay attention
so what is your trend, why are you not sharing it with the rest of the board
OT why you can block them if you want
Loop, I'm not following you, I don't think I stated there has been a trend in 2004, I stated that I noticed a trend right before the Ericy settlement and the Jag rumor that Ericy would settle in January of 2003, unless you are trying to be funny I believe I have explained myself fully
sailfree you are misunderstanding me, I'm not claiming any predictions here, just noticing a trend, maybe there is something to it, maybe not, but it is intriguing, and by the way if somebody buys the stock now for whatever reason they will gain
I challenge you to tell me what facts I have switched, don't say things unless you can back them up with FACTS, so go at it, let's see what you come up with, I guarantee you will come up with nothing
dmiller you are so off it is not even funny, I am not grasping at anything, after the ericy settlement I mentioned this to Jimlur and he agreed with me, there was a definite pattern to significant afterhours volume, for idcc I would say anything above 10,000, it happened multiple days out of nowhere and weeks before the settlement, in fact I believe it happened right before the jag rumor that there was a settlement, and then a few weeks later we got the official news of a trial delay
so I'm not saying anything has happened yet, I'm saying keep your eyes on afterhours volume over the next month
well if you could show us some numbers I believe you will be proven wrong, I have posted about it numerous times, and if I posted about it then it must have happened
gman what you don't get is that the afterhours spike happened weeks before the settlement, not just the friday before
gman for idcc that is a spike, afterhours idcc usually averages less than a thousand, and your link did not tell us afterhours volume
OT To All, I think you might like this website it is called www.bugmenot.com
You know when you have all of these websites that want you to register for free to use them, well this site provides you with a user id and password so you don't have to give out your email address
That is what I thought, I bet if you look it up because I know I posted about it, that Friday before we saw an unusual uptick in afterhours volume and also in the preceeding week or so the same thing, could mean nothing but I found it interesting
Remember Afterhours Spiked before the Ericy settlement, especially on a Friday, wasn't the Ericy news released on a Monday?
OT, Ha, nah, strictly food and beer, some of the other bigger players from the Houston Cabal can cover the rest
If we get to 100 by Jan 2006, I will pay for the Houston 100 party
Sirius still has room to grow
It is remarkable how far the pendulum will swing. The excesses of the '90s have been replaced with a fairly significant amount of restraint and conservative behavior. As a result, corporations have been reluctant to spend and investors unwilling to risk capital.
Where is the imagination? More importantly where is the innovation? Very few it seems are stepping into the shoes of some of the great visionaries who created much of the wealth and productivity that we enjoy today.
Now corporate assets and investor risk capital are not to be taken lightly, but recent action seems to indicate that things may be overdone here. A quick survey of the corporate landscape yields nothing but a bunch of blue suits determined to squeeze every nickel and dime from intrinsic business with little real attention to expansion. The leaders of today's businesses all seem to be racing to nowhere.
It is a hopeless path. Indeed, tightening the purse strings at a time of overcapacity and recession is more than reasonable behavior, but to do so into perpetuity will do irreparable harm to the bottom line. If opportunity is not seized, a competitor is likely to move while others are standing still.
A great example of this is unfolding before our eyes. Apple Computer, regardless of the short-term impact on earnings, has rarely failed to invest the capital and brain power necessary to develop tomorrow's blockbuster product. The I-Pod, this year's must-have gift, was born out of that fertile environment of idea generation and a willingness to invest in the future.
Many companies may pay lip service to research and development, but very few have the vision necessary to produce results. Intel and Microsoft are just paying lip service. Both monopolistic businesses may very well spend millions on new products and service, but the long-term results of that investment have been stunningly poor.
That should be no surprise. These businesses would much rather milk the cow than take a chance on something new. God forbid that they fail.
As a result, their timid approach tends to be a follow-the-leader type of situation. That strategy of letting others fail and using massive leverage and size is much safer than going it alone.
Unfortunately for investors, such safety often results in mediocre performance. Such is evident in examining recent returns of Apple (AAPL, news, msgs), Intel (INTC, news, msgs) and Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs). The difference in returns is startling and in sharp contrast.
Show me the innovators and I will show you the profits. Of course that is much easier said than done, and with the recent dearth of exemplary vision the task is even more difficult.
Recognizing that innovation comes at a cost is a great start in finding the stocks that will outperform in the future. For starters, it takes a great deal of investment at all stages of development. For some businesses, such an investment is prohibitive and results in large debt load, equity dilution and operating losses.
All of the above are frowned upon by Wall Street investors and tend to give rise to falling stock prices and low valuations. As time goes by and financial health deteriorates, confidence is lost. A company with vision often finds that vision when the future is bleak.
That is certainly the case with AAPL. Investors who recognized the short-term nature of the difficulties have been amply rewarded. A vision can take time to develop and successful investors must be patient for innovation to become realities that generate significant profits.
It is interesting to note that lack of vision is not unique to corporate chiefs. Wall Street and the financial press have been remarkably lacking in the insight category over the last few years. The absence of prescience is stunning when you realize that the proprietors of risk have closed up shop.
Well that is not entirely true, but take a close look at Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI, news, msgs). A rapid rise in valuation is followed by an analyst downgrade followed by analyst downgrade followed by continued moves higher in the stock. Only then does the sheer weight of Wall Street finally have its impact when the last analyst comes out with a sell recommendation.
These short-term non-visionaries all believe the stock has moved ahead of itself. As if they alone can dictate what is an appropriate level of appreciation. Sure, I can accept the fact that the gamblers in the crowd are day trading on the volume and popularity of the shares, but accurately timing these moves is a lesson in futility and missed opportunity.
As future valuation is the only true arbiter of right and wrong, let's spend a few minutes assessing the prospects of SIRI. The main theme of the bears appears to be related to current valuation. With profit growth seemingly distant, the huge costs associated with content acquisition require a market penetration that could be insurmountable, especially considering that SIRI is behind market leader XM Satellite Radio (XMSR, news, msgs).
At its recent high of $9 per share and market cap of $14 billion, what formula could possibly exist to justify such excess? As is often the case with vision, these folks lack the ability to see the forest through the trees. It is staring them in the face and yet, 99% of the market experts seem to be missing the point.
It really is right there in front of them if they would just be willing to open their eyes. Let's assume that the total market for satellite radios is equal to the number of automobiles in circulation plus some percentage of the population interested in satellite radio at home. I think it is fair to say that number is quite large. I'll be conservative and put it at 250 million.
Now, let's assume that SIRI captures 10% of that market share, again being quite conservative. That results in a total of 25 million subscribers. At $13 per month in subscriber fees, not to mention the potential for spot advertising (make no mistake, advertising will be a part of the strategy at some point), total sales with such penetration comes in at $3.9 billion.
With break-even estimated to be approximately 15 million subscribers, SIRI should be quite profitable at that level. The only question then becomes how long does it take and what will the value of SIRI at that point.
As for the amount of time, I would guess that we are talking about a five-year period. Along the way, the company will be tweaking its model (as mentioned earlier, advertising revenue in a suitable format could be a huge boon for SIRI), passing milestones and improving its content. All of these things will be viewed as positives for the stock, pushing shareholder value to new heights.
The tricky part then becomes, what is a fair price for SIRI should it meet the above criteria. Well, let's take a quick look at other watershed-type businesses that have tapped massive markets. EBay (EBAY, news, msgs) and Google (GOOG, news, msgs) come to mind.
On a price-to-sales basis both eBay and Google trade for huge multiples, with eBay at 25 times and Google at 31 times. Both companies are profitable with profit margins of 24% and 7% respectively. Let's discount that valuation to say 10 times sales and apply that to SIRI. Doing so results in a valuation of $39 billion or $25 per share. Discounting that further by 20% brings me to my target of $20 per share.
Of course there is no guarantee that SIRI reaches its potential, but the odds appear to be in its favor. Its management team, with the addition of Karmazin, is rightly focused on content, having secured shock jock Stern and the major sport contracts (XM's attempt to compete by purchasing baseball was a mistake in my opinion -- baseball is a parochial sport with fewer teams or games with national interest).
Go ahead and believe that SIRI is ahead of itself, but if you are buying the shares for its long-term potential there is still money to be made here. I would even contend that my back-of-the-envelope analysis is too conservative.
It may take a few years for SIRI to reach those goals, but given its current share price patient investors have the potential to double their money. The risk is certainly high, but the reward may very well make it worthwhile. The fact that most of the professional community is now against us is actually a great contrarian indicator. I would buy SIRI here.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Stratlabs/Round11/P103119.asp?Rating=10&PageID=103119
by
James Dlugosch
spread the word about this message board
I'm here and ready to invest, just need to know more about this company and why they are the leader in nanotech, if you can answer please do
Jimlur any chance Microsoft and IDCC could sign a license agreement together, in other words do you see them being a good fit, or is that a crazy thought?
Great job Matt, although I found it funny that people were fascinated by the fact I had 74 ignores, I took it as a compliment, while others saw it as an opportunity to lecture me
anyway I think you did a smart thing
OT Jimlur I'm sure these kind of posts are very helpful to the stock, you delete my posts because they reference another stock but you let this boring, uninformative, dribble about bricks go on and on, talk about diluting the board
OT And I am thankful you have put me on ignore, you do have a lot of people marks though
OT It's good to be the King eom
You're a funny guy, anyway like I said don't buy it. By the way you do realize satellite radio is for the home or car.
And for the final time local stations don't have every NFL, NBA, NHL, or MLB team, you only get the teams in your area.
like I said nobody has ever told you satellite radio is for everybody, same thing with satellite tv, if you are a jets fan who lives in another state and you don't want to pay 250 for directv football package then it would interest you, but i buy satellite radio because fm radio is unlistenable and there are channels on xm and sirius that are unique to satellite radio
so if you don't want to pay don't, but there are millions who want to pay and millions more who will once they try the service
one thing, you are either extremely stupid or just a basher because I already explained that it would be for sports fans who don't live in the cities where their team plays, so which is it, duhhhhhh
you don't get to listen to other games for free in your area, free radio sucks, they play the same songs over and over again with tons of commercials, i can't even listen to free radio anymore
I guess you think every fan lives in their home city
good luck kron, just think you are making a mistake, wall street is always looking for a story stock, and this stock has the best story out there
good luck kron, just think you are making a mistake, wall street is always looking for a story stock, and this stock has the best story out there
PigBoy on CNBC just ripped Sirius, the other guys are laughing at him saying that SIRI is up 7 percent while XM is up 2, he started to say there is a lot of crap on the internet before they interrupted him,
I seem to remember Pigboy saying similar things about XMSR back when it was rising, I don't trust the CNBC anchors, they are paid to shill stocks that the company owns
you are funny, the only time you are going to see the number 4 as the first number on this stock is when it hits 40, guy don't you understand Stern is coming and he is bringing along millions of his dedicated fans, get with the program and buy now or you will be like the people who did not listen to me when i said to buy xmsr at 2, it is now 37 and all along the way there were people like you who said it would crash
Well I congratulate you on any picks you have made, problem is it is very easy to make macro predictions, for example very easy for me to say Team X won't make it to the Super Bowl, the odds are in my favor when only 2 out of 30 make it, takes much more luck and skill to give me the teams who will make it, so saying IDCC won't reach 100 a share means nothing to me, and obviously we are waiting on Nokia so we don't know how high it will go
so like I said since your record goes far back I am waiting for your stock picks, and if you look at my stock picks I would say the record has been pretty good, but I'm still waiting for your 2004 predictions that did better than xm and siri
is gejim your father, anyway put me on ignore, i'm happy I have 73 ignores, just curious do I have more recommendations or people marks than you, funny but I think i do
Ed my record speaks for itself, what predictions have you made in 2004 that have done better than xmsr and siri, show me the posts before the stocks rose up
btw what I post about gejim does not concern you, take care
Gejim interesting that you mention that even with a Nokia settlement we can't get above 35, I will be watching that closely
Gejim interesting that you mention that even with a Nokia settlement we can't get above 35, I will be watching that closely
GEJIMMY check out raging bull for some messages to you, by the way for someone who thinks the IDCC stock is dogmeat, which you stated on raging bull, i am surprised that it is the only company you post about on investorshub
seems from reading this message that you are a small time tough guy, funny stuff, by the way NIKE made about 24 percent this year, that is good for a small time chartist like yourself, but none of your predictions have come close to my XMSR pick from 2 to over 37, looks like you can take off the glasses and throw away the charts, because they don't even get close to my picks
told you i would have a better year in 2004, better get back to crunching numbers
wow you don't know who is going to win the Nokia case from reading this message board, I could have saved you a lot of time by letting you know that months ago, doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that a message board can't give you any insight into a closed case
Jim you have already stated on other boards you think this stock and company is dogmeat, so don't try to be something you are not
question do you ever pay taxes on all of your trades and do you factor that into your percent gains
Jim Charts on the IDCC board is comparing SIRI to a pyramid and he claims he knows what he is talking about when it comes to stocks, I think he is mad he didn't listen to me when I told him to buy under 2 bucks a share, immature people I just don't understand
The interest in IDCC posts does not mean much, this site has to become more popular for that to matter, look at other boards of popular stocks, they get little posts while rb and yahoo gets over 1,000 a day on that same stock, the reason why this board ranks high is because the whole flock came here and this has now become the main board, for the other popular stocks that has not happened
Jim again which posts were made to tick you off, yeah there were times i talked about the markets in general, of course that is related to idcc, and the resident guru is not referring to you but to gejim
and a lot of my posts about siri and xmsr were talking about them in relation to idcc's potential, and if you think i am posting about siri in relation to idcc to tick you off then you need to reevaluate things, the funny thing is I actually gave advice that people could make money off of
I would say about 85 percent of those posts mentions IDCC, so tell me how I am not following the rules when I talk about where I think IDCC will go and mention another stock in comparison, there is no rule broken there, and you fail to mention what post i am responding to, if someone is talking about siri negatively then cut off the conversation right there
you are reaching bigtime, and if you want you can ask Matt whether I am breaking a rule by comparing stocks to IDCC, this is an IDCC board and I will continue to use other stocks as an example to explain something about the direction of this stock, and if you think that is grounds for deletion I will complain about it, because I was told by Matt that just because you are the moderator it does not allow you to delete posts for no reason, and you have already admitted that you judge my posts differently than your friends, well that is not proper conduct for a moderator
show me one post where i tried to tick you off, if you can't handle criticism then maybe you should not be the board moderator, i have always shown you respect
i don't care what some website says, the video is real, as are the hundreds of others