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Actually considering the heavy market sell off (dollar bottomed and stocks and commodities are in sell off profit taking mode) since late last week and the high beta of COIN, as well as the considerable increase in float that beefed up the cash and book value, it is holding up quite well IMHO.
Only question now is will the overall market bounce back up, or return to the bear market. SPX needs to hold the 1013 to 1019 area or else it is time to be on the sidelines, or hold puts, short, instead of being long.
I don't think the COIN has any serious shorting going on. It is just people panicked about the current market direction selling nearly everything. We are sitting right on the last TA support before the last major bear/bull battle area of 1019 (to 1013).
Long story short, I am holding my stocks including COIN and COINU, and late last week I bought some puts to CMA for this expected downturn to limit my losses.
One thing is for sure, new buying opportunities are showing up in many places.
Let's hope the bulls can hold the line against further declines.
Nice. Thanks for the post. I had not heard that news. I added to my shares early October when it was down some. Glad to see one of my BDI shipping stocks holding up. I was concerned the dividend might drop, I guess that concern is off the table now. Kinda raises the ante for the other BDI stocks! Nice that they announced it pre-earnings!
Tempts me to sell my other junk and just buy more NMM stock.
I found the patent application by the OriginOil inventor(s):
http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-adv.html&r=1&p=1&f=G&l=50&d=PG01&S1=%28Riggs.IN.+AND+Eckelberry%29&OS=in/Riggs+and+Eckelberry&RS=%28IN/Riggs+AND+Eckelberry%29
My back ground is chemical, environmental and biomedical engineering, and patents, and some patents of my own, so if anyone has questions regarding the patent application I will try and answer it.
Well so much for the volume question, some one just spiked the juice here. My screen says it just moved up 33%! After zero volume most of the day.
I am wondering why there is zero volume here today. Was trading halted?
Just curious? As part of due diligence don't you want to know who the other players are, how big their bets are on Algae to fuel, etc? My post was from a news item that had over half a dozen other players, and size of their investments on the move to make algae to oil fuel a reality. How is that not relevant here?
Heads up, we just broke out, back up through upper resistance at .16, to .168, in a down market!!!!!
I was just looking at the COIN chart, and it seems we are at or very near an all time low right this minute. With the recent new shares issued bumping the book value up from .04 to .44/share, and the financials looking better than ever, this looks like a great opportunity to add, or for new longs to jump in, or start jumping in. I will be surprized if the price goes much lower. This was a $10 stock early in 2008. And has been back up over $2 recently.
I believe this company has a much better up side potential than stocks like POT (traditional inorganic fertilizer plays). COIN has an ex EPA official on the BOD (last time I checked anyway), Their losses as they switch from a start up to a company with real sales should continue to fall, and with all the shares issued, the next quarter losses per share will be much smaller simply due to dilution. Some of the cash they just raised will go to pay down debt and reduce interest expenses, which should help profits. This all adds up to a great buying opportunity IMHO. I already doubled my long position recently when the new COINU issue came out by buying some of the COINU which has $1.34 warrants attached. I am long on both now, and will hold the COINU until they split to COIN and COINW in the very near future.
Oh, and if you take out the $1.34 warrarnts in the new issue (COINW part of COINU) that leaves the new issue which sold for $1.06 issue price, at a price that is about 20% higher than today's COIN price. If we don't get back to $1.34 someday that is, the warrants would be worthless, but the warrants seem to be currently valued at about .34, so the COINU holders are betting that COIN will get back up over $1.34 pretty soon, probably back up $2, soon. Last I checked COIN was sitting at around .84 with this current market correction taking out the week hands.
It is not very often, especially in the current market, where you can buy a new green tech stock with this much promise, this cheap. Right now it is at about 2x cash on hand book value!
I read that EK posts earnings this week, some time on Thursday!
These are the guys that are going to leave BEHL in the dust.
http://finance.paidcontent.org/freelunch/action/linkout?URL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cleantech.com%2Fnews%2F4648%2Fdow-algenol-build-pilot-algae-based&Title=Dow%2C+Algenol+to+build+pilot+algae-based+biorefinery
I don't BEHL's name anywhere on this, and BEHL has not even rasied 1 million dollars in funding yet:
"South San Francisco, Calif.-based Solazyme has raised $45.4 million, the company confirmed to the Cleantech Group today.
Solazyme had previously raised about $25 million in venture capital, debt and federal grants for its process using fermentation to speed the growth of algae in the dark. Most recently, Solazyme said it raised $5 million in December (see Investors eat up algae and other fuels).
The company didn't release details of the funding, but company Chief Executive Jonathan Wolfson has said he expects Solazyme's diesel to be market-ready by 2010 or 2012.
Solazyme is the only company so far to get approval from the American Society for Testing and Materials for its algae-based diesel, which the company is using to power an SUV at its headquarters, but Wolfson has said it will take a couple years to build a plant capable of producing about 100 million gallons per year.
Solazyme and Naples, Fla.-based Algenol Biofuels are two of the algae based fuel companies specifically touting scalability (see Turning algae into ethanol, and gold).
The investment in Solazyme follows a flurry of announcements from rival algae companies. As predicted in May by Cleantech Group Senior Research Director Brian Fan, algae companies are aggressively raising new rounds to scale their products to keep up with Sapphire Energy, which in May raised $50 million—the single largest round to date by an algae company (see Cleantech investments hit a record high and Governments dole out cash for cleantech).
In June, Alameda, Calif.-based Aurora Biofuels said it raised $20 million, and, in May, GreenFuel Technologies said it closed a Series B round of $13.9 million for technology development and scaling (see Aurora Biofuels lands $20M in Series B).
Other companies in the field include LiveFuels, Aquaflow Bionomic, PetroAlgae, among others. "
and this:
"Midland, Mich.-based Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) and Algenol Biofuels said today they are teaming up to build a pilot, algae-based integrated biorefinery to convert carbon dioxide into ethanol.
The facility, to be located at Dow’s Freeport, Texas site, is expected to incorporate Algenol’s technology. The company said it has a seawater-based way to inexpensively generate up to a billion gallons of algal ethanol per year in bioreactors (see Turning algae into ethanol, and gold).
Financial details of the partnership were not disclosed, but Algenol said it’s applied for a grant for an unspecified amount from the U.S. Department of Energy to help support the plant. Upon approval, Dow and other collaborators plan to work with Algenol to prove the technology can be achieved on a commercial scale. Other collaborators include National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Georgia Institute of Technology and Membrane Technology & Research.
Dow said it plans to develop the advanced materials and specialty films for the photobioreactor system. Dow is also expected to provide the technology and expertise related to water treatment solutions.
Dow said it plans to provide Algenol with access to a CO2 source for the biorefinery from a nearby Dow manufacturing facility. The CO2 is expected to serve as the carbon source for the ethanol produced. The result, according to a news release, would be a CO2 capture process that converts industrially-derived CO2 into more sustainable fuels and chemicals.
One of Algenol’s competitors, South San Francisco, Calif.-based Solazyme, which has a process using fermentation to speed the growth of algae in the dark, said it plans to build a plant capable of producing about 100 million gallons of algae-based diesel per year (see Solazyme joins algae elite with additional $45M)" from:
http://finance.paidcontent.org/freelunch/action/linkout?URL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cleantech.com%2Fnews%2F4648%2Fdow-algenol-build-pilot-algae-based&Title=Dow%2C+Algenol+to+build+pilot+algae-based+biorefinery
I have owned stocks in the last 24 years that were bought out where the old shareholders got screwed, IMHO, with the takeover price, so I am very careful not to assume a take over will give the old stock holders a fair shake. Too many ways to skin the cat, and the big guys are pros at it. Last one was back in March when the Arabs saved a Canadian DOW Chemical like company just as the stock was starting to rebound from the grave on the latest quarterly, the Arabs bought it up before the stock could get back where it had been 6 months earlier. They bought it for 10% of what it had been worth based on stock price middle of last year, and about 20% of what it was worth now versus what it was selling for in march this year. It took a huge one time inventory hit on crude oil in storage in the 4th quarter last year, plus the temp drop in sales had investors running for the door, so the stock price dropped about 95%. Long story short, we could get screwed if the right guys move in on us at the right time, unless we support the stock price ourselves. Just one of the hazards of being a small time investor.
Last I read that one was dead. I think some of the others he listed are dead now too, as they don't mention them anymore.
You might find it interested to reading this.
http://crankyflier.com/2009/09/30/why-algae-wont-fly-anytime-soon/
" But will we actually be seeing algae-powered airplanes in the near future? Probably not. I spoke with OriginOil President and CEO Riggs Eckelberry about the state of algae oil product, and it was a really interesting discussion.
The use of algae oil as fuel is not just hype. It has been proven that it can be done, and according to Riggs, it has a “fairly compact footprint.” Part of the issue until now has been figuring out the best way to extract the oil.
In Riggs’ words, in the current process, “they literally cook the water out. It takes a huge amount of energy to do that. Eventually it turns into a 10% water content which is an extremely dry meal. Then they combine it with hexane to extract the oil.”
So it takes a lot of energy and the use of chemicals to get anything done, and that’s not exactly a sustainable process. OriginOil’s process is different in that it separates the lipids from the biomass and then the algae sinks to the bottom while the oil sits on top of the water. You can see a time-lapsed video of this happening on their website.
Origin Oil Algae Process
They don’t need any chemicals or energy to do this. All they need is a ton of water, which presents problems of its own. At least the water can be reused. After the process is complete, the water simply has to be refiltered and it can be used again and again with limited loss in the process. They’ve also found that you can harvest a certain amount out of a batch every day and it grows back by the next day. Right now, they can pull out about 12.5% per day.
So, now that the processes are improving, can we use this on airplanes? I doubt it. Riggs gave me some numbers to put things in perspective. Let’s say you have 1 acre. On that acre, you probably will have about 40% of it as actual tank capacity for growing. In that environment, you will turn out about 63,000 gallons per year for that acre. How many airplanes can that power?
It’ll keep a 747 in the air for about 18 hours. That’s it.
So at this point, you need a LOT of land to power a fleet of aircraft. It’s just not feasible right now. But there are plenty of other uses that are good for algae and that can help take some demand out for petroleum. Things like specialty chemicals and health foods can work very well.
Riggs was certainly up front about this. “It’s not a very pretty picture. The best the industry has reported, and some are skeptical, is $8 per gallon of oil and some people think it’s more like $12 or $14. It’s still very, very high.”
There is some good news, however. Costs can come down significantly in environments where the right conditions already exist: wastewater treatment plants. Think about it – a ton of water flows through wastewater plants every day, and they can grow algae while that’s going on. Then the cost is very low for production, but again, the quantities won’t power the airline industry.
In Riggs’ mind, we’re probably about 5 years out from having a sustainable algae oil industry, but he’s confident we’ll get there. In order to get algae to power airplanes on a large scale, there’s a lot left to do."
Note that this outfit is already moving into phase 2 of a DOE lab research partnership. And they seem to be in the lead on the energy balance analysis (in partnership with the DOE) and working the frontier areas of solving and patenting the new tech needed to solve the excessive energy input issues and problems like how to extract the oil economically.
I am long here, and added at 1.36. I found this interesting in the latest 8K SEC report.
"In exchange for Treasury’s funding commitment, we issued to Treasury, as an initial commitment fee: (1) one million shares of senior preferred stock and (2) a warrant to purchase shares of our common stock equal to 79.9% of the total number of shares of our common stock outstanding on a fully diluted basis on the date of exercise. Because it holds this warrant, Treasury is deemed to be the beneficial owner of 79.9% of the outstanding shares of our common stock."
I still believe that if the Treasury ever wants to get out of the mortgage business (Which I believe is the case, long term), it will want to prop up the common stock price some day by exersizing those warrants and selling that 79.9% to Wall street someday, for a decent price. That does not predict a zero value for the current common stock. Oh, I also bought some REAL cheap 1.00 December puts for .05 Friday that they are nearly giving away (considering the stock is worth 0, LOL) as insurance for my long, and just in case some more yahoos come out and tell every one to sell FRE.
No brainer as Hedrin is and has been used overseas for years now. Just a matter of time. I am excited about the news of the fire sale possible takeover target in the last SEC doc, that would add to the pipeline for pennies on the dollar (stock swap for their debt?). If they do that and if they want to issue more shares to raise money they will use MMs and PR to spike the price a good bit before issuing new shares as they will want a higher price for new shares, IMHO. The stock price has already gotten real solid in the .08-.09 range. I doubled my holdings at .09 the other day, a lot more than the .02 I paid back in March. Volume has been up a good bit too as it held the .08 to .09 price range. IIRC this $1 stock 18 months ago.
Wow, there are some SIRIous bets out there for a reverse split by January 09! Max pain for January 2010 options is $1 and for march 2010 it is $3!!!!, but there are some January bets out there as far as $30 betting on a RS! Some real big bets on a reverse split. But most of the options are created and sold by the big players, so they are betting against the RS, or not?
Based on recent market action, I decided to buy some insurance for my long positions like EK, and was amazed that I could buy a $3 December EK put for only .05/share late on Friday as the market and EK prices went south. Does not seem like the MMs think the stock will go that low this year, another good sign of a bottom at this price. Max pain for EK december is also $4, so I am holding my longs. Once again people this was a DOW 30 stock once, and will rise again IMHO. And their recent success at raising cash was good sign that big money people think it will make a comeback too.
Only problem with a buy out is if it happens before we all bid the price up where it belongs. Some one could shop the open market and buy it up cheap right now.
I see reality is still in SHORT supply here in this blog. Long term trend is still down here, next support is about .02, and .03 is now upper resitance, IMHO, and the broader market looks to be correcting near term, which will drag most stocks lower. I'm betting we hit .02 before it ever gets back over .04, if it ever gets back to .04. Still bearish on this one, IMHO.
I found this on the PSC page you posted.
" BEHL.
Once thing that struck us this weekend are the similarities between SPNG and BEHL. Both SPNG and BEHL ran hard from a standing start to gains of almost 2000% this summer. Both stock suffered pullbacks and SPNG rebounded hard. We think BEHL will follow suit and make a big comeback."
Hmmmm!
Let's hope for the long, diehard investors here that is not true.
I found this on the PSC page you posted.
" BEHL.
Once thing that struck us this weekend are the similarities between SPNG and BEHL. Both SPNG and BEHL ran hard from a standing start to gains of almost 2000% this summer. Both stock suffered pullbacks and SPNG rebounded hard. We think BEHL will follow suit and make a big comeback."
Hmmmm!
It is way down near the bottom with a Sept 7th post date.
There is no good reason that CABN would decline a DOE grant award. They would use the award to try and improve the process, no matter how good it already is, and / or it would be used in combination with a full scale plant development partner in a cost sharing process, DOE helping defray the construction costs just like they are doing elsewhere. Just dawned on me how timely the patent filing may have been, as it will protect the IT from DOE partial ownership if CABN gets a grant award. I have had 2 DOE grants myself back in 1992 and 1994.
I see we are still setting the world on fire here with new lows.
They are not running at full capacity yet. They have lots of unused capacity in both still. They are still a very young company. For me the good news is and has been all year the willingness of big money to convert old COIN debt into stock, the ability to raise large amounts of additional cash for working capital, the growing sales from near zero to several million dollars a year (rate) in the first year of real solid sales (200 to 300% growth in sales year over year?), the continuing news of market acceptance of their products as superior to inorganic fertilizer (which gets ours a price premium) based on the PRs, and the huge market world wide for fertilizer, the green model of the business, and so on.
I agree. It is one of the few worthwhile, way under priced stocks left from the crash. It is also an ex-DOW-30 index stock! I checked the max pain on options and put and calls for Nov and December and they indicate it should get to at least $5 in a few weeks (maybe even 5.50 to 6). I am expecting an earnings surprise above analyst estimates that will send it back to at least $6 this year. It could easily hit $10 in 6 months and $20 in 12 months if they have gotten their act together and earnings turn positive again and retail actually recovers some. The up potential is 5 to 7 times the down potential now.
Interesting, who is NITE, and why them? The MMs are one of the reasons I don't use stop loss triggers on my stocks. All they need to do is send just enough market orders to trip the sell triggers and start a selling wave, then pick up cheap shares to sell at higher prices. I bought CABN at about .30, and road it all the way to .06 adding all the way. I just hate to see others buy in and get washed out with these tricks buy setting stop loss limits. This a very volatile stock, and should only be bought to hold for the big kill, not the quick traders game penny game games. Just my opinion, that this is not a typical penny stock to trade, but a true buy and holder, a real company with a Google, Amason, MSFT like game changing product that just needs 3-6 months to go into dollar land now.
WHAT? REAL earnings, what are those? First I heard of this, what rumor did I miss???? When are earnings reported for them? Where are the earnings coming from?
Now you have me wishing I had bought at the sell off earlier AM.
It befudles me as to why anyone sells and pushes the price down on a stock like this during a market rally (unless they are trying to buy cheap and accumulate more cheaper shares).
This is a buy and hold for $5 stock people!
Agreed, I got a look at a color drawing image recently of the internal layout and was stunned, quite impressed, and wondered why no one had thought of it before. Very simple, and quite brilliant design.
Somebody sold a huge lot at 10:30 am, that took us to new recent low, about 650,000 share lot was sold, took us down another 10 cents, but we bounced nicely only down about 4.5% on the day now. That one block sale was about equal to 10 day average volume. Can't help but wonder why someone would sell so much all at once and push the price down so fast unless they sold short trying t push the price lower.
I still won't be surprised to a company like SO or TXU energy(coal power plant companies) partner with an Exxon and CABN all at once to do a JV deal. If that happens we are headed for dollar land big time.
Nice news today on the asia office being opened for M&A discussions!
On the torque and HP, I know one of the new JV deals they did recently was for a mine generator engine prototype being built and tested at the partners expense, and IIRC Mitsubishi is a part owner of that China firm. Mine generator engine is probably in 5000 hp category IMHO (I don't know the size for sure), but one parnter is building a motorcycle prototype for testing (millions per year potential for China motorcycles), another is a mid sized one for truck engines to compete with diesels (so it must have plenty of torque or they would not be following that path), and the third is heavy industry mine applications in remote areas for power. I am real tempted to buy more shares here today based on the Asia office opening news and mention of M&A discussions at that office. M&A discussions could move the stock price quickly, and if they get bought up the game is over.
Actually CYTR has a history of nice large jumps on some news. Also it needs to stay over $1 to stay on NASDAQ, so at some point the strong hands will be forced to push it back up and hold it over $1 for 30 days, IIRC.
Two bits of news today. One is that anyone that wants to can split their COINU into COIN stock and COINW warrants and trade them separatly, so the COINW should be trading now, and COIN stock float will increase as people split the 2. Eventually they will split automatically, IIRC. Also seems to be other news. Somebody got a great price on COIN this morning, but price is heading back up so the cheap COIN shares are disappearing quickly. Also this mornings lows were a huge discount to the high yesterday, or the day before, about a 25 to 30% spread, so I if you plan to buy for trade or long, this mornings prices are huge bargain.
Well we had a SIRIus (LOL) pull back earlier today, somebody dumped 2 large block lots early today, but about an hour ago we rallied back strongly. Looks like we might close even after a 5% opening drop, very nice sign of strength in the ongoing rally to take that hit and pull back so quickly.
Heads up folks, the bid has moved up on level 2 quotes, and it looks like it may jump back up to .45 to .51 by the close today! TYhe cheap stock at .40 is about gone.
While NMM has not been a very exciting stock lately ( a good thing for long term investors in a volatile scarry market) it has made a nice strong move up today, to a new recent high, and has held its value better than most (if not all) other dry bulk shippers of late. Great dividend here, almost unheard of yield, up around 12%, and seems to be here to stay. I bought more about 10 days ago, still long and adding. Also BDI is on the rise again boosting dry bulk shipper stocks. The high dividend seems to be related to the LP structure with NM as the general partner, and it seems to be set up to pay out most of earnings as dividends. IIRC NM owns over 50% as the GP, so most of those earnings go to NM.
At this point I am waiting for news of a joint venture partnership of a full scale plant, based on the last couple of PRs, whether we get DOE help or not. To me that was the real news recently that they no longer need to do a pilot plant to figure out the scale up parameters, and that they filed the patent application.
That takes about 1-2 years off of the commercialization time table!
We seem to be hitting higher lows, setting them as support, slowly putting pressure on that upper resistance area. If this continues we might break out up and over .20 and set .20 as support even with out more news. Of course as I said before I would not sell here, or even at .20 as news of joint venture deal or DOE grant could be dropped on us any day sending this stock into dollar land.
NMM has made real nice move today, along with NM. I think PRGN is undervalued right now.
I see an overhead gap in the recent EXM chart at $8.50, and I see nice strong support at $7 now which says it is a buy at around $7.00.
I am long EXM, PRGN, ESEA, NM, NMM, and the last 4 still pay dividends! PEs and dividend yields are real nice on PRGN, NM and NMM. ESEA has nearly no debt but has a small loss last quarter (spot rates were down), but kept it's dividend. EXM has sold a lot of stock recently, so I expect poor earnings per share based on that dilution, but it has raised badly needed cash this year, so it is kind of a wash. It did have $4/share in earnings last 2 quarters (don't ask about the last quarter of 2008 when they wrote down thier ship values big time), but with the stock issue nearly doubled recently to raise cash that would only be $2, or $4/year annual earnings per diluted share based on the 2 most recent quarters, so if we get $1/share or higher earnings with no surprises for the 3rd quarter, that would easily support a move higher if the markets also co-operate, and BDI continues to trend higher. We could run up to $9 or even higher in the next 3-4 weeks, IMHO.