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Very few, if any stocks like these have done well the last 3 months. If you look at the big picture, stock indexes, we have essentially traded sideways for the most part since Sept 18 highs, and small caps have slid, while the big caps and dividend payers crawled up a little, like utility stocks, and Dow stocks. I have actually been happy to see this one hold up much better than others later.
These guys have been around for a good 10 years or so, and only have 36.3 million shares issued according to IHUB (just looked), and I don't think share dilution is, or will be an issue here from what all I have read, as the in house R&D costs have been paid for, and are now being covered by China partners from what I have read.
I think we finally just lost the .36 technical floor due to weakness here and in the markets in general the last 3 months and seasoned traders know that support level is gone now so it is and will mover lower until enough new good news sets a new floor. Also the charts show a technical GAP in the chart from months back that is around .21-.24/share, which is where the stock maybe headed short term, and would make a good buy point. That gap should act as support, and possibly rally back up from there, unless some unexpected news arrives from left field soon.
I still have the original shares I bought at .70, holding for the long haul, and I bought a bunch more at .36 a while back and sold those around .42 to help cover the loss on the .70 shares, and I have orders in for .21 if we get their, just based on the chart Gap and the fact that super good news does not last forever. I do think, there is a good chance this stock could turn into a cash cow if China follows through and does all the manufacturing and R&D based on the patents, and starts paying license fees in a few years. Under that scenario TTEG would not need to dilute to raise huge amounts of cash. I do not consider this a buy, sell and run stock like many penny stocks, but as long as it is volatile, and drifting lower for now, it seems prudent to hold a small core position, and swing trade the highs and lows until it starts to see reportable profits, or hits a long term stable bottom....
Look at the bright side. No one sold at lower prices today either. We could have been holding C the last 2-3 days! LOL.
Thanks, and best wishes to you and yours too.
I am still a little long here with COINU that I bought at $1.16, IIRC, I nearly bought some more today at .58, but I think the markets may get nasty and go way down Monday, and or early next year, which could really clobber stocks like these again. I am holding some small positions in stocks like this one for the long haul, as I don't want to miss the huge ride up when they announce a new big client that increases sales 1000% overnight (you or someone here got me to thinking that could just happen, and save their buts overnight so I stopped short of selling all my COIN position). Other than that and a few blue chip like stocks I am 90% cash these days, and sleeping better for it!
Well I see we survived the market drop here today due to some timely news and a little earlier buying. I ran across a news blerb at the open this morning that two magazines are doing more news on CABN, or something like that. Skidos posted a link to it in the post before this one(thanks!), so I won't repeat his efforts. I also noticed that Byron mentioned in that interview that the DOE has not responded to the grant request from CABN yet!!!!!
DING, DING, DING, may be time to buy a few more shares if they drop further, as I (and no doubt others) had given up on the DOE grant application getting funded. Just not sure where or when the bottom might happen, but the last 2 bits of good news took us from .06 to .19 in some solid moves, before we got the quarterly report and bad news about cheap dilution.
Thanks for your reply. Explains in part why it has rallied 2 more times. I still think it has overextended itself here. The street.com sort of agrees with me it seems.
"The news today as a trigger for a further climb in A-Power's share price is debatable. For one, a definitive agreement being signed for the West Texas wind farm is a step, but not nearly as big a step as gaining regulatory approvals and financing for the deal, and completing a feasibility study. The deal was more akin to a memorandum of understanding previously, so a definitive agreement allows the companies involved to chase the big hurdles. Still, it might not justify the bid up in A-Power today in contrast to the pullback in alternative energy.
The extent to which it is the retail dollar and not the institutional investor playing in alternative energy stocks may be in evidence again today in the A-Power run-up.
What's more, it could still be a year until A-Power ships turbines for the West Texas project. While the agreement states that deliveries could begin by March 2010, one alternative energy expert said that deals of this type are often beset by delays, and that extending the delivery time horizon for A-Power out to summer/fall 2010 is more advisable.
Until that time, investors who are modeling revenue from the deliveries into their A-Power outlook, with the expectation of A-Power making the March time frame, may be taking an overly optimistic outlook based on the sector's project history. "
From:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10648726/2/alt-energy-wild-ride-of-the-day-a-power.html
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10648726/1/alternative-energy-winners-a-power.html?puc=_wal_txt_pla2&cm_ven=EMAIL_wal_txt
I also can't help but wonder how this will play out in future earnings where they are part owner, part contractor, in a totally new market to them, where they end up passing money from the right hand to the left hand of the same company building the Texas Wind farm. Sounds more like someday profits a long time from now to me if they are paying themselves for part of the cost of building it and then wait for operating profits to show up before it show ups on the books? The stock crashed earlier this year over an analysts warning and exiting the stock as an analyst when he complained of a lack of earnings visibility months ago, when I made the prior mistake of holding it too long. I don't like making the same mistake twice.
Don't get me wrong, I am very bullish on this company, but not at these prices, at this time. And it is just too dangerous these days to buy and hold for 2-3 years in this current market IMHO.
Hmmm, lets see here, was that a comment meant for me ??? perhaps, regarding my recent unfortunate early Put experiences with buying $15 Dec puts on APWR 2-3 weeks ago? OK, so maybe I feel like the bug on the windshield today, but I won't be the bug on the windshield tomorrow as I have moved to side of the road on this one, LOL.
I am still convinced it is way over priced now, and even dangerous to buy or hold at these levels, especially with a market that has gone sideways for 3 months, showing no signs of direction yet. But my biggest reason for waiting for lower prices to ever buy this one again, is the unresolved question of financing. I smell a rigged, ongoing stagged deal here setting up investors for dilution to raise cash to finance these huge billion dollar deals with the selling of new shares at these inflated prices to raise capital. Thanks but I will wait for the dust to settle, and current earnings to finally to show up again.
I just noticed that FRE and FNM preferds were up 25%, FREPRB for instance.
Sick volume? What are you watching? It was up 400%. And no new buyers may have tight stops, speculators, that will drop fast on any correction, adding to the correction. That said this might head for $2 by friday, and crash Monday as options expire. IMHO
Is that when the world ends? LOL
The movie is Fantastic by the way!
Interesting that my .21 bid is not listed.
Greatings guy! I just read the earlier news about the energy generation, powering generator application. Wow. I think the real money may be in China apps for trucks and motorcycles, but who knows. I wonder if this engine can compete with gas turbines? But in alternative fuel, like coal, it might be interesting since they claim they use any fuel. By the way, we need to meet up some time over the holidays, if you are around, lunch maybe?
Looks like it is rolling, just in the wrong direction.
Short covering? I read last week that FNM was buying up some long term high interest rate bonds, which made me wonder if FED liquidity is allowing them to buy their own high rate long term debt, thus reducing their costs and losses? Just an off the wall idea, but nothing else I see in the news explains the sudden high volume rallies, except maybe options expiration week?
Nice post! I am bearish on these guys right now, with the BDI in steady decline last week or so (7-10 days?), and predictions of a pending market peak real near (this week?) and correction maybe starting next week, or by early next year.
Things are looking bleak here right now, especially with a large market correction being predicted to start as early as Monday next week or early next year. I think I read we set a 52 week low here, Ouch!
MVTG has painted a new low today! I am afraid both might see much lower lows next week, and early next year, as many are predicting a large market corrections early next year, possibly starting late friday, or sometime Monday next week.
Some one has either bailed out of a large position today, or is shorting the stock to shake loose cheaper shares, or both maybe, one triggering the other? Volume as I type is way up, over 330,000 shares traded today with what looks like about 93,000 and later about 203,000 sold in 2 large block trades today at .06. We have already reached 5 times 10 and 90 day average daily volume and we are down at the .06 low on those sales. But ask is still holding .08 at times.
And this on a new highs for many stocks and indexes rally day going into options expiration at the week end. I am still holding with bids at .04, but I am starting to get concerned about the markets direction after year end, and early next week. If markets do make a large pull back soon, as many are predicting, it could nasty for a stock like this one, unless some one has set a bottom .06?
I do expect it get more volatile next week!
"Hey EcoMike yes the volume was up, but it was all sells, so volume means nothing and will continue to be that way. The .06 buy will only be available after dilution. The best ask I have seen is .07 for about an hour last week. It moved to .09 because the ask was changed to .09 and some idiot bought 5000 shares
, means nothing. Nobody will get .06, thats what they will give you if you sell, I think we will continue to see selling. "
We just need more idiots to buy 5000 shares at .09!
PS, Don't ask what I paid for my last 5000 shares, please!
LOL.
I still have a big buy order for .04 in case someone sells all at once! I can always hope!
But seriously, it is nice to be able to buy and hold something with upside potential that does not have much selling going on, and holds a pretty stable price.
I just finished mentioning CABN to some multi millionare blogger friends including a retired stock exchange floor trader, I know on another board I inhabit frequently, never know, it might start / trigger something good down the road for CABN. One says he is worth 3/4 billion $s, and the other says he is connected, friends with a number of big boys in Washington and on WS....I just hope they buy it up and kill it with ARAB money from left field. With the internet, news travels fast, if it gets to the right people. I have hung onto a small position even though I fear this may go a lot lower, but I am ready to buy big at market if we ever get the right news.
I do not understand your post?
A friend of mine did this chart for me. Very interesting, and note the gaps at $14, $12 and $10 we left behind in the recent rally(s).
http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c71692/media/image/200912/php3lLxwwapwr-60min.png
While I agree, I have seen this general down trend in the last 2-3 months for many non-revenue producing stocks, and ongoing operating loss stocks with cutting edge green tech, no matter how good the tech maybe. The coming world summit on GHG reductions (next week ?), may generate renewed interest! Perhaps recent stock market highs will spill over again into riskier stocks like this one shortly.
For now, I am afraid I agree with you. I sold 90% of my CABN shares, and will buy back in on the next stock price crash if it comes. I was not at all happy with the huge discount they gave for $250,000 to that AI investor. I was not believing all the PR here until that SEC filing showed up with a signed JD agreement with the 3M VP of Technology signature showing a sharing of costs, and sharing of IP. That is not penny stock BS anymore. Before, all I could readily find was PRs and hearsay.
OK, did you read my earlier post here about the 3M JV signed letter signed by 3m VP?
I was nearly convinced this one was an elaborate, extremely well PR'd scam, and I was shocked to see the 3M VP name and signature on that document filed with the SEC. If that signature is forged, no doubt 3M will be all over them real soon, and that bad News would show up from left field overnight, and this whole thing would collapse overnight if it was forged. That said, I seriously doubt they would stupid enough to file that agreement with SEC if it was forged, even if it was a scam, as that is not penny stock PR scam style (At least I don't think is?), and it would be end of game too soon for no good reason, so I am now inclined to give this one the benefit of the doubt, and start digging a lot deeper to see what real potential it has, in spite of the CEO's past.
That does not mean I will be buying stock in it yet, I will now spend more time looking under the hood, kicking the tires, under rocks, rugs, back 40, etc, LOL, as this one could be ready to take off soon, with the recent stable prices and float. In fact I sort of wonder why it has not already soared, but then I look at CABN, and other great start ups I like, and many of them have not well done well at all last 2-3 months, in fact some totally legitimate ones have price performed far worse that Mantra recently. Money seems to be moving to perceived safer places the last 2-3 months, gold (until last 3 days anyway), dollar on Friday, and stogy old stocks with hard core dividends like utilities.
I for one, would love to get my hands on copies of any Mantra patent applications, etc on this one, as that is more my area of expertise than finance. I want to know more about the nuts and bolts of it and thermodynamics. Is any of that public yet? Or available with signed ND agreements?
This is very interesting. A document filed with SEC showing a signature by 3M VP of R & D on a JV R & D effort with Mantra.
Now they finally have my attention. Hope this links works, if not go to otcbb.com, pull up MVTG, look for SEC reports tab and go to 11-06-09 SEC 8-K Report, see sub document 2, to see the signed agreement with 3M. Perhaps this is the real deal after all, inspite of the concerns I stated earlier about the Mantra CEO.
http://otcbb.com/
See the Nov 6 8-K report. I can't seem to get a cut and past URL link to work for it.
The CEO did a lot of buying and selling, trading of these shares, with net selling of about 180,000 shares listed on the latest SEC report, in Sept 09 and early Oct 09. He still holds about 14.6 million shares according to the report. I did not any see anything about short possitions on otcbb.com
Am I looking on the right page?
Why? I was a little surprised at how quickly it ran back up .09 this week after hitting .06. Volume is definitely up! I have buy orders at .04, hoping to get lucky (it is christmas season afterall), maybe if the market takes a dump. I looked at .06 when it hit this week, but the ask was already back up .084/share.
$3.50 gap! Cool, time for it to fill the gap before my Dec puts expire, LOL.
Hard to tell right now where the BDI and EXM are going next. Earlier we looked to be heading down, but markets refused to correct down, and BDI did a two step suffle rally middle of the week.
Nice post and graph, thanks! I see volume dropping off.
So far all I have heard of is 2 patents applied for, under the CABN umbrella. One for making a calcium/magnesium carbonate product out of CO2, the other CO2 to methanol, IIRC. The ChEng co-founder may have other prior patents I have not heard about, but last I heard these two under CABN are applied for, not issued. Takes a while to beat up on patent examiners and get approval and issued patents. I don't think Mantra has any issued patents yet either, only applied for?
I have 5 international patents, issued, 1 pending in Europe. I think both companies have interesting ideas, but I feel safer with CABN's CEO. That said both companies are very risky bets, very early stage start ups. They have different products, but the same the feed stock, and many of the same road blocks and sink hole potentials ahead to face.
I do think they both have the right idea of turning CO2 into useful organic feedstock compounds and products.
I don't think they recognize project revenue until receipt of project payments (?), which was a big earnings dissapointment earlier this year that crashed the stock like 50% while I was holding it this summer. One of the analysts bailed on the stock right after that, sighting earnings visibility issues!
I sold my shares about 2 weeks ago, and went short via puts, both too early, but added puts middle of the week which are doing nicely. I felt it went to far too fast as well. But now that I read they had a GAAP loss this quarter and not a GAAP profit (it was a non-GAAP profit reported which is what most people read the first time around!), I may get even bolder with the puts here. I guess I need to pull up the DEC 3 SEC document itself and read it to see what the GAAP versus non-GAAP huge difference is all about. As I recall it had earnings report issues that dropped the price 50% earlier this year as well. Will this be a repeat performance?
I also don't see them reporting the increased year over year expected revenues for next year that I expected to see based on this years PRs of new projects? I thought next year was likely to double or triple, but what I just read is a pittance compared to what the PRs sounded like. Long story short, I think this stock is way over priced here. There is also a nagging question in my mind of expansion costs, and sources of those expansion revenues?
Once again, not advise, just my personal opinion.
This does not look nearly as impressive as their back order press releases this year indicate.
"3Q09 Financial Highlights -- Revenues were $96.7 million on a 13% year-over-year increase -- Gross margin was 13.1% vs. 12.4% in 3Q08 -- Cash, Cash equivalent and restricted cash were $97.6 million -- Excluding share-based compensation, and the expenses and non-cash losses related to the convertible bond, non-GAAP Net Income for Q3 was $9.8 million or non-GAAP EPS $0.28 -- The Company reaffirmed the year 2009 guidance of $320 million for revenues and $32 million for non-GAAP net income"
If anything it looks stagnant, if not a reduction in revenue and income for next year based on this quarter which was a little more than the 2008 third quarter.
I have been reading the last SEC report (Linked in your post). Here is my view of the major items in this amendment. This is not advice, and just my personal opinion as to the major items I see while reading it. I have been long here since about March.
Looks like they are correcting earlier filings to make the Class H warrants correctly registered, these appear to be the class H warrants already sold and attached to the COINU issued combo back in October. The H warrants get split shortly from the COINU combo issue as I understand it, which was 1 share common plus 1 share warrant (H). If and when exercised the H warrant turns into a common share and COIN gets the conversion cash, raising their cash and stock holders equity. The conversion price is $1.30, so COIN gets a $1.30/new share at conversion time.
My earlier post about calculating estimated equity before and after the October stock sale seems to have been off. This latest filing shows they had negative equity per share of (.15) before the new shares were issued, while I had calculated +.04/share, not -.15/share, and as we know, COIN had an ongoing concern statement from the independent accounting firm, which they have now asked be removed (pending?)I thnk I read here in this amendment (but it is pending the final report early next year?). They show a net tangible book value increase of +.78/share based on the October share/warrant sale, but only if the $1.30/share class H warrants are converted to stock someday, with 17.5 million shares to be issued on conversion. .78-.15= .63 which is the new potential book value per share as of Sept 30, 2009, if the warrants are converted at $1.30/share. I think my earlier estimate in a prior post here was about .43/share? with out warrants included or converted.
Keep in mind if the $1.30 warrants are converted, 17.5 million shares get issued (dilution) and coin gets $1.30 per share in cash (increases total equity, book value). So cash goes up, and issued shares goes up, but only if H warrants are converted. Stock price would need to get over $1.30 share I think for people to convert the warrants.
Bad news in the latest filing:
" In early November 2009, during routine maintenance, we noticed corrosion in the walls of one of our 120,000 gallon digesters. Through subsequent ultrasound wall thickness testing we have determined that the corrosion is significant in two digesters and that we will not be able to use those digesters for their intended purpose in our manufacturing process until they are repaired or replaced. We have further determined that the corrosion in these two digesters is a result of our manufacturing process. At the time of installation, we had anticipated the possibility of corrosion and therefore had the digesters protected with a coating. We are currently investigating why the coating did not perform as expected and as it had performed during the pre-installation testing. "
"We are considering the most cost effective solutions to this matter, including the installation of stainless steel liners into the two 120,000 gallon digesters or the installation of additional CLF digesters, two of which are already installed and working at the facility. Until we make the decision as to which option we will elect we will only be able to operate at approximately 14 to 16% of capacity at the Woodbridge facility. Presently, our production at the plant has been limited by odor issues to 14 to 16% of capacity and therefore the corrosion problem is not affecting our ability to produce product at this time. However, we anticipate that we will correct the odor issues and increase sales in the future commencing in 2010, and if we cannot repair the problem before the sales increases happen, we may be unable to generate positive cash flow from the Woodbridge facility according to the planned schedule. We have obtained preliminary estimates for various solutions to the corrosion issues and they range in price from $400,000 to $2 million with an estimated time to complete ranging from three to six months. During this period of diminished production capacity we are looking at all possible ways to lower operating costs at the facility in order to lower cash requirements. "
And none of this looks too rosy at this time, except the Armistead settlement:
"Legal Proceedings
On December 11, 2008, we received notice that a complaint had been filed in a putative class action lawsuit on behalf of 59 persons or entities that purchased units pursuant to a financing terms agreement, or FTA, dated April 11, 2006, captioned Gerald S. Leeseberg, et al. v. Converted Organics, Inc., filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware. The lawsuit alleges breach of contract, conversion, unjust enrichment, and breach of the implied covenant of good faith in connection with the alleged failure to register certain securities issued in the FTA, and the redemption of our Class A warrants in November 2008. The lawsuit seeks damages related to the failure to register certain securities, including alleged late fee payments, of approximately $5.25 million, and unspecified damages related to the redemption of the Class A warrants. In February 2009, we filed a Motion for Partial Dismissal of Complaint. On October 7, 2009, the Court concluded that Leeseberg has properly stated a claim for actual damages resulting from our alleged breach of contract, but that Leeseberg has failed to state claims for conversion, unjust enrichment and breach of the implied covenant of good faith, and the Court dismissed such claims. On November 6, 2009, we filed our answer to the Complaint with the Court. We plan to vigorously defend this matter and are unable to estimate any contingent losses that may or may not be incurred as a result of this litigation and its eventual disposition. Accordingly, no contingent loss has been recorded related to this matter.
On May 19, 2009, we received notice that a complaint had been filed in the Middlesex County Superior Court of New Jersey, captioned Lefcourt Associates, Ltd., et al. v. Converted Organics of Woodbridge, et al. The lawsuit alleges private and public nuisances, negligence, continuing trespasses and consumer common-law fraud in connection with the odors emanating from our Woodbridge facility and our alleged, intentional failure to disclose to adjacent property owners the possibility of our facility causing pollution and was later amended to allege adverse possession, acquiescence and easement. The lawsuit seeks enjoinment of any and all operations which in any way cause or contribute to the alleged pollution, compensatory and punitive damages, counsel fees and costs of suit and any and all other relief the Court deems equitable and just. In response to these allegations, we have filed opposition papers with the Court and have complied with the plaintiff’s requests for information. We have also paid to the Middlesex County Health Department penalties in the amount of $86,000 relating to odor emissions. We plan to vigorously defend this matter and are unable to estimate any contingent losses that may or may not be incurred as a result of this litigation and its eventual disposition. Accordingly, no contingent loss has been recorded related to this matter.
On May 28, 2009, we received notice that a Lien Claim Foreclosure Complaint had been filed in the Middlesex County Superior Court of New Jersey, captioned Armistead Mechanical, Inc. v. Converted Organics Inc., et al. Armistead filed this Lien Claim Foreclosure Complaint in order to perfect its previously filed lien claim. The Complaint also alleges breach of contract, reasonable value, demand for payment, unjust enrichment, and breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing, and seeks compensatory, consequential and incidental damages, attorneys fees, costs, interest, and other fair and equitable relief. On July 10, 2009, we received an Amended Lien Claim Foreclosure Complaint from Armistead Mechanical. The amended complaint did not make any substantial changes to the suit. On August 4, 2009, we filed a response to the complaint whereby we denied certain claims and at this time we are unable to estimate any contingent losses. On August 28, 2009, the court entered an order staying the litigation pending the outcome of arbitration. In connection with the Complaint,
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Table of Contents
Armistead has filed a demand for arbitration with the American Arbitration Association in order to preserve its status quo and right to submit a contract dispute claim to binding arbitration. On October 30, 2009, our response to the demand was due with the consent of Armistead. No arbitrator has yet been appointed. On November 19, 2009, we signed a Settlement Agreement with Armistead for a total of $2,029,000, with the first payment of $1,000,000 due upon closing (closing occurred on November 19, 2009) and the balance of $1,029,000 payable in eighteen level monthly payments of principal and interest calculated at 6% per annum. The monthly payments will begin January 1, 2010. According to terms of the Settlement Agreement, the construction lien claim and related lawsuit will be suspended during the eighteen month payment period and will be released completely upon final payment.
The Middlesex County Health Department (MCHD) issued us a number of notices of violation, or NOV, following the commencement of our operations at our Woodbridge facility in February 2009, for alleged violations of the New Jersey State Air Pollution Control Act, which prohibits certain off-site odors. The NOV alleged that odors emanating from our Woodbridge facility had impacted surrounding businesses and those odors were of sufficient intensity and duration to constitute air pollution under the act. As of the date of filing, the total amount of fines levied by the Middlesex County Health Department equaled $391,500, of which we have paid $87,750 (of which $86,000 were related to odor emissions), and currently have an unpaid balance of $305,500. We recorded a liability of $270,250 in our financial statements as of September 30, 2009 relating to the unpaid potion of the penalties. In addition, based on a change in operational procedures and working with two outside odor-control consultants, we believe we have significantly rectified the odor issues. MCHD recognized that we have made substantial efforts and improvements at our Woodbridge facility in odor control and as a result, has negotiated a sixteen (16) month payment plan for the odor violations issued from May 2009 through July 22, 2009 for an amount totaling $232,500.
The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (“NJDEP”) Bureau of Air Compliance and Enforcement issued us an Administrative Order in June 2009 for alleged violations of the air permit issued to us pursuant to the Air Pollution Control Act. The Administrative Order alleged that we were not operating in compliance with our air permit and that we had violated the New Jersey Administrative Code for various pre-constructions without permits. No penalties were assessed in the Administrative Order. However, the Administrative Order remains an open matter because, as the NJDEP stated in the Administrative Order, the provisions of the order remain in effect during pendency of the hearing request. Additionally, while we have taken corrective actions, such actions do not preclude the State from initiating a future enforcement action or seeking penalties with respect the violations listed in the Administrative Order.
The NJDEP Bureau of Solid Waste Compliance and Enforcement issued us a NOV for alleged violations of the New Jersey State Solid Waste Management Act in June 2009. The NOV alleged that our Woodbridge facility was not operating in accordance with the terms of the General Class C Permit Approval. No penalties were assessed by the NOV. However, the NOV constituted notification that the facility is allegedly out of compliance with certain provisions of the General Class C Permit and/or the NJDEP Solid Waste regulations. The NOV remains an open matter because, as NJDEP stated in the NOV, while we have taken corrective actions, such actions do not preclude the State from initiating a future enforcement action with respect to the violations listed in the NOV. "
Shares issued as of update:
"37,662,708 shares of common stock outstanding as of December 3, 2009"
December 2008 it was slightly less than 6 million shares, so we are up 600% in the number of issued shares, but I am not sure if that includes 17.5 million potential shares for H warrant conversion potential? I think it might, but I am not sure.
Nice to see an Oppenheimer fund hold 5.7% of outstanding shares still in that SEC report (Note all my quotes in this post are from the recent SEC amended report).
There is a LOT of other stuff in the SEC report(s), but these were the ones that struck me as the most negative, and important.
I still believe in their product, and customers seem to be giving it rave reviews, but they have yet to make a profit, and are running into new operational problems (corroding digesters and odors, and unhappy neighbors, and NOV fines and permit issues that concern me now.
This stock may continue to be very volatile for some time, and is not recommended for those with weak hearts!
Lastly they seem to be loosing huge, increasing amounts of money ($1 million a month lately?), at this stage, even while sales are rising, implying POSSIBLY lower stock prices in the near term.
Be sure to look at pages 14 and 15 of the SEC report for the restated stock holders equity based on the recent stock sale and potential H warrant conversion. They seem to contradicting them selves regarding stock holders equity and net tangible book value before they raised cash with the newly issued shares. Lastly keep in mind that unless the stock price goes up over $1.30 to get class H warrant conversions, they only have about 40% of the cash and new equity shown on page 14-15, as that higher number is based on assumption of eventual H warrant conversion, adding cash at $1.30 per share, and increasing issued shares again by 17.5 million. Until (and if) those warrants convert, that extra 17.5 million shares will be a no show! In other words, the Class H warrants and potential stock conversion is not a concern, and is a good reason for the stock to go up over $1.30 someday, IMHO.
Right now I think our biggest concern as investors is now the continuing losses, and their magnitude, about $1 million per month loss rate, and the corroded digester(s) and continuing odor and NOV permit problems, bringing in engineering and design questions to me, and both will cost money to fix (more losses?). If their engineers screwed up the digester specs, what else is screwed up?
I just don't see the stock price going up, maybe even down from here until they fix these operational problems (Tank corrosion and odor problems and permit violations), and reduce the equity loss rate. Hard to say if others have undervalued the stock recently based on recent stock issue dilution, and original 3rd quarter report, which did not include all the cash raised from the recent stock sales, but this last report has me worried about the tank corrosion, cost of the damage, issues with engineering design now, and odor and permit NOVs (More engineering issues and questions, concerns), as well as magnitude of continuing losses which have gone up, not down so far.
I cut back my stock position recently, holding only some of the COINU units now (taking a 70% hair cut on what I could have sold the common shares for this summer, and down about 35% on the COINU units now), and hopping the price does not drop further while they try to solve their problems. If the price takes a huge dump, I may buy and sell to trade the volatility for now, and average down, I still like the long term business plan, and they have a huge sunk cost invested already. But I will net bet the farm on these guys at this time!
I still hope they pull a rabbit out of their hat. They have had some impressive votes of confidence by investors and financiers this year, but the stock price has not done well at all lately, and the 2 year chart looks sick. If the loss rate was not climbing still, and the odor, permit NOVs, and tank corrosion problems were not there, I would be extremely bullish on this stock at this price, so I will be watching their news closely!
RXII has dropped from about $10 to $2 recently. That may have something to do with all of it. CYTR sold 1 million shares of CYTR in the last 8 weeks or so, (8-12 weeks IIRC) which hurt the RXII stock price, and may have hurt CYTR at the time as well. I have been very tempted to buy both, more of CYTR and some of RXII, but the market in general worries me about buying anything right now.
I was thinking from looking at their financials, Ariston might be desperate to avoid bankruptcy, might be having real trouble raising money by other means, and if MHAN has to raise to raise cash, they might require restricted shares for a year or so for Ariston shareholders, to insure no immediate mass exidus of new share holders. It is not uncommon in a merger for the shares to have a merger time restriction on selling. Perhaps they will do some of both, who knows.
Nice post, thanks for sharing.
Yep, Just looking for a way to stay long on promising potential stocks with out getting eaten alive by bears during dilution attacks, on going R&D losses, and random market bear attacks, LOL.
I think both have potential, if they can survive, and get a real solid end user JV partnership underway. In the mean time clock ticks on them both as losses mount up, and new investors are needed with fresh cash to buy new shares. I have modified my strategy for stocks like this one, I will keep a base, and buy a large amount on huge brief pull backs and sell back to the base when news helps the stock back up. That way I have some shares for the big news day, and I don't get hammered so bad on big drops. With any luck, I will try and stay long with out loosing too much value along the way hoping for a big payday down the road. CABN has been volatile enough to play this way I think. The recent .06 price looks attractive for any new longs based on its highs this year. I will add about 10X shares to my base if we hit .04.
Impressive! Does anyone listen to that group, news?