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LOL
If nwbo was presenting at ASCO, you would say that was bullish. Now they're not presenting, you think that is bullish.
Hard to go a day without a rationalization.
Correct.
However, the deeper the warrant/option is in the money, the fewer warrants/options surrendered for cashless exercise.
Number of shares received on cashless exercise = (A-B) * X / A
A = market price (recent VWAP)
B = option/warrant strike price
X = number of options/warrants
For example, consider 100 warrants with a strike of $0.25
Exercised cashless at $0.40, shares = ( .40 - .25 ) * 100 / .40 = 37.5
Exercised cashless at $1.40, shares = ( 1.40 - .25 ) * 100 / 1.4 = 82.1
Re: legality
It is perfectly legal to sell short and cover with shares from exercising warrants.
The case that is illegal is to sell short and cover with shares purchased in a secondary offering.
@Kab, I agree that Woodford totally misplayed nwbo. Your criticisms are valid.
- Should have asked for a Board seat as part of direct purchase.
- Very sloppy buying pushed up the price, bidding against himself.
- Admitted on his blog to poor due diligence.
But Powers misplayed as well.
- If she had any idea Woodford wanted more, she should have sold it to him so nwbo got the cash instead of market sellers.
- There should have been some peaceful way for Woodford to have a Board representative.
- After how Woodford was treated, no sign of any institutional quality investors. Not a coincidence.
Well said.
The info about the 61 day rule is found in the proxy rather than the 10-K. However, there is no requirement that shareholders be informed of such notice if given.
Also note that the suspensions after mid-December by insiders were not disclosed until the 10-K was published.
Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman are subject to an agreement to provide 61 days notice before exercising any option or warrant.
Consists of?29,411,759 shares of common stock held by Ms. Powers. Ms. Powers entered into a Letter Agreement with the Company pursuant to which Ms. Powers does not have the right to effect the exercise or conversion of any options, warrants and other derivative securities, as applicable, to acquire shares of the Company’s common stock, unless Ms. Powers provides the Company 61 calendar days advance notice of such exercise or conversion to the corporate secretary of the Company. As a result, such options, warrants and other derivative securities are not considered “beneficially owned” within the meaning of Section 13(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
Consists of?172,742 shares of common stock held by Mr. Goldman. Mr. Goldman entered into a Letter Agreement with the Company pursuant to which Mr. Goldman does not have the right to effect the exercise or conversion of any options, warrants and other derivative securities, as applicable, to acquire shares of the Company’s common stock, unless Mr. Goldman provides the Company 61 calendar days advance notice of such exercise or conversion to the corporate secretary of the Company As a result, such options, warrants and other derivative securities are not considered “beneficially owned” within the meaning of Section 13(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
I assume what you want is how many options/warrants owned by insiders were suspended through today. From the 10-K:
On February 28, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 262 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until April 30, 2021.
No, you insist on fabricating things I never said.
How many people do you think nwbo has that are capable of doing FDA work or writing a paper?
The 2 lawyers are not qualified for either task. There is no medical research talent on the Board to help. Anyone besides Boynton and Bosch?
No, I do not make that assumption, and certainly do not believe that.
It's more a question than an assumption. WTF has nwbo been doing in the 7 months since data lock? If it really has been on writing an article and shopping it unsuccessfully, then that time could have been better spent preparing work for regulatory agencies.
Based on how long it took nwbo to get the blended/blinded results published, the wait could be long.
If dcvax works, that wait is delaying possible treatment of patients. Why would any company put itself in such a morally questionable situation? Makes me doubt the whole "waiting on publication" speculation.
Appreciate your vote. :)
They're calling to make sure they have a proper quorum for the voting.
All of those $0.20 nwbo warrants were issued in deals with the company. Those warrant holders should all be friendlies. Do you really believe that none of them would want to hedge and lock in some of their gain? No one would want to defer a gain for tax purposes?
The alternative is speculative shorting of nwbo. I'm not a fan of nwbo management and think the chance of success is low. Still wouldn't short it. When borrow is available, it is expensive. Most of the holders are retail rather than institutions, which means that borrow is less stable than usual, increasing risk of recall.
What evidence do you have that nwbo's short interest is somewhat irrational speculative shorting rather than 100% rational hedging of gains?
I can't prove that all the shorting is hedging, but it makes a heck of a lot more sense than the alternative.
You really haven't figured out that most of the nwbo shorts are friendlies fully hedged with warrants?
They can't file a lawsuit without a lead plaintiff, so that's the first thing they seek. Anyone who owned a single share during the relevant time period would suffice.
Most of these crap cases result in a small cash fee to the lawyers (basically a bribe to go away) and something of non-monetary value for shareholders (ex: promise of increased disclosure). No reason to get involved.
More like speculating with a very reasonable basis.
Do you think it is logical for anyone to be speculatively shorting nwbo? If not, then it is entirely reasonable to assume that most of the 16.7m short interest is hedged.
I'm not a fan of nwbo management, but still wouldn't recommend shorting the stock.
How do you see playing games as different from speculation? Whatever the overall strategy, either the shorts are hedged or not.
The 10-K states that the derivative suspensions in 2021 are management only.
On January 15, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 256 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until February 28, 2021.
On February 28, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 262 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until April 30, 2021.
Since we know that all previous suspensions expired in December, we can infer that all non-management warrants are free to exercise.
It is entirely possible for someone to have a short position hedged by warrants, and still be friendly to nwbo management. There is nothing hostile about shorting to hedge a profit on $0.20 warrants.
Do you seriously believe there are still speculative shorts in nwbo?
16m shorts fully hedged by warrants is more likely, which means zero potential for a squeeze.
According to FINRA site, there are 16.7m nwbo short as of 3/31/2021
https://otce.finra.org/otce/equityShortInterest
That's real data. The thousands of posts about "naked shorting" are silly speculation backed by absolutely no real data.
@Hank, this is a new one on me.
I am not aware of any reason that giving 61 days notice would require any SEC filing by either party. My best guess is that any disclosure would be voluntary.
The actual exercise transaction would require a Form 4 filing by Powers. The new holding info would appear later in nwbo filings.
You must know Jamian's. I'm not from NJ, but have relatives nearby.
Linda found a clever way to exclude derivatives from disclosure of her full beneficial ownership in the proxy.
Ms. Powers entered into a Letter Agreement with the Company pursuant to which Ms. Powers does not have the right to effect the exercise or conversion of any options, warrants and other derivative securities, as applicable, to acquire shares of the Company’s common stock, unless Ms. Powers provides the Company 61 calendar days advance notice of such exercise or conversion to the corporate secretary of the Company. As a result, such options, warrants and other derivative securities are not considered “beneficially owned” within the meaning of Section 13(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
10-K note makes is sound like Cognate/CRL may be out of the picture.
Our intention is for the U.K. facility to manufacture DCVax products for both the UK and other regions. However, this may not turn out to be feasible, for regulatory, operational and/or logistical reasons.
Your point about tax savings - don't really see it that way. To me, nwbo is a binary event profit situation rather than a tax-managed portfolio position. Insiders may be an exception.
Regarding volume... There are no SEC filings to indicate that nwbo insiders have traded recently. That means that they have not been a significant part of past volume, so their inability to transact now would not explain falling volume.
Consider the recent 10-K and Subsequent Events; Debt Offering, Warrant and Option Suspensions, Warrant Exercise, Option Exercise, Debt Conversion. Although there were no straight stock sales, that is sufficient activity that I doubt nwbo is restricted in any way, which makes it unlikely that insiders are restricted.
Not to worry. Linda Powers pushed 215m shares into the market over the last year. There are plenty available even if no one on ihub ever sells.
Per 10-K: 829m outstanding 12/31/20, 614m on 12/31/19.
BWIS,
VRE, XHR look fairly liquid, so presumably no issues there. Hope you bought them when crushed last year.
IARE is a weird one. 900m market cap, but trades OTC with only 2 days with volume this month. Hard to see why management would prefer that to either a real listing or going private. The periodic buybacks are above market, 2+ vs 1.30, but limited. This is one where I think a non-profit should value a donation at liquidation price.
At the non-profit where I'm on the Board, the donation value of an illiquid asset would likely be whatever it could be sold for. In theory the value should be established upon receipt, but if it is being sold quickly actual sale proceeds is IRS safe.
If you want to send me the ticker, happy to take a deeper look.
Not all. Small bank deals are starting to happen after a couple of slow years. I had a nice hit today with MFNC +50%
No idea about the hire, but I definitely see it as different from Malik as a Board member for nwbo.
Malik no doubt knows some early history about Switzerland, AIM promotion, intro to Woodford, etc. He is a quiet compliant Board member who qualifies as independent. FSA Register shows over a 2 year gap after he was pushed out of Cenkos, so he no doubt appreciates the Director fees.
I hold the CFA charter and think you have that backwards.
In the investment firms where I worked, I never encountered a CFA in a sales position.
Analyzing merger/partnership terms definitely is an area where a CFA background could help.
There most certainly is a Subsequent Events section. Note 15.
In the PDF, use CTRL-F to search on "Subsequent Events". You will find 2 earlier notes that refer the reader to it, then the actual section. It starts as follows.
15. Subsequent Events
Debt Offering
On March 1, 2021, the Company entered into a Commercial Loan Agreement (the “Note”) with an individual investor for an aggregate principal amount of $10 million. The Note bears interest at 8% per annum with a 22-month term. There are no repayments during the first 8 months of the term. The note is amortized in 14 installments starting on November 1, 2021. The Note carries an original issue discount of $1 million and $5,000 legal costs that were reimbursable to the investor.
Warrants and Options Suspension
On January 15, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 256 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until February 28, 2021.
On February 28, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 262 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until April 30, 2021.
A total 262 million warrants and options will be suspended until April 30, 2021.
There are 381m potentially dilutive securites currently exercisable.
The nwbo 10-K states that there are 643m potentially dilutive securities.
Under "Subsequent Events", it states that there are 262m insider options and warrants suspended until April 30, 2021.
That means 643m - 262m = 381m are not suspended, and thus currently exercisable.
You are twisting the thread.
Marzan was the one talking about "shorty" and that their warrants were suspended. That is wrong. The only 4/30/2021 suspensions are for insider options and warrants.
All warrants except for insiders are available for exercise, so you are also incorrect about potential for float increasing.
You twisted nwbo insider suspensions into an incorrect claim that it was short seller warrant suspensions. Shame on you.
All I did was quote the 10-K showing you were wrong.
Think you misread the 10-K about April 30, 2021 suspensions.
Those are not "shorty" suspensions, unless you think nwbo insiders are shorting.
"Warrants and Options Suspension
On January 15, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 256 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until February 28, 2021.
On February 28, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 262 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until April 30, 2021.
A total 262 million warrants and options will be suspended until April 30, 2021."
Karl, from FINRA we know nwbo short interest as of 3/15/21 was 16.4m shares. That's real.
All the talk about naked shorting is at best speculation, and in my opinion complete BS. Certainly there is zero supporting evidence.
Correct.
It is refreshing to see someone actually understand the difference between real short interest reported twice monthly and daily short numbers.
It is hard to tell if some nwbo posters genuinely do not understand this, or just ignore the facts that do not suit their narrative.
Once again, nwbo longs obsess about Feuerstein. If not for longs mentioning him on ihub, I would have never known he wrote about nwbo on twitter.
What comes first, TLD or patent expirations?
"The expiration dates of the issued U.S. patents involved in our current business range from 2022 to 2026. The expiration dates of the issued European patents involved in our current business range from 2022 to 2024. For some of the earlier dates, we plan to seek extensions of the patent life, and believe we have reasonable grounds for doing so."
Insider warrants/options suspended twice, now through 4/30/21
Warrants and Options Suspension
On January 15, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 256 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until February 28, 2021.
On February 28, 2021, the Company further extended the suspension of approximately 262 million warrants and options held by certain officers and directors of the Company until April 30, 2021.
A total 262 million warrants and options will be suspended until April 30, 2021.
My take:
The note does not specify what consideration was given for the suspensions.
This keeps the total of (Shares Outstanding + non-suspended Potentially Dilutive) just below share authorization.
I suspect this takes April 2021 off the table for TLD, which presumably puts it after the annual meeting that nwbo still owes shareholders.
Next announcement should be the annual meeting and proxy.
The stockholder's deficit number is not all that meaningful. You are correct that it rose due to warrant liability rather than cash drain.
The more meaningful number is "Accumulated Deficit" which was $1.09B as of the last 10-Q. That and "Additional Paid In Capital" of $877M give a rough estimate of what it has cost to get nwbo this far.