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He said they will not be doing a press conference or public relations meeting at or immediately after the conference. I think they may put up a press release on the web site but that was not what i spoke to him about. He said they will let the science speak for itself. The data will come out at the conference. Sorry if I generated any confusion.
Hey Gernee. I do not know tgds mind, of course, but I can see several reasons.
Trials were just approved, followed by aaic a few weeks later. Where does anavex do its pr? Only on its web site! How effective would that be?...not. Why would we want to steal our own thunder BEFORE the big day. We now have the big stage with reporters, industry leaders, scientists etc to show his hand.
So the reasons are, timing, info, audience, impact.
I contacted the company and suggested doing an off site press conference AFTER the presentations. Very common. They are not interested after the law suit in the past...and they do not have a pr staff.
I will trust tgds judgement on this.
I agree with you that it would be good to do a press conference if the presentations warrant...but if they dont it would probably be neccessary to wait for more solid data/news.
GLTAL,
Dont beat up TGD about not giving out the data now.
I have been to conferences where they pass out the presentation on flash drives to everyone in the room AT THE START of the presentation. Sometimes it is because the presenter or ? was not ready til then. It is not highly unusual to not have the public presentation ready until show time.
In this case it might be to add late breaking info, who knows.
As I said a week ago, I spoke with the Anavex IR guy, and he says the company is not doing PR, but letting the science speak for itself. TGD may figure that at THIS conference, THIS PRESENTATION, THIS date, THIS data is now available, so NOW is the time to PLAY THE HAND.
For ANAVEX (only the alternative would be a PR release on the website.
VERSUS
AAIC will have the scientists, reporters, bloggers, competitors,..
Now he SHOWS HIS HAND!
LONGS: Why the stock price is...
Having watched the stock closely since late last year, I have this observation on the SP.
Premise is "NOBODY KNOWS ABOUT ANAVEX!"
-------------------------------------------
Knowledge -> Interest -> Stock Price(SP)
SP is driven by interest, but that assumes knowledge of the stock/company.
Evidence for "Nobody knows about Anavex":
Very few analysts or bloggers track Anavex.
The media barely comments on 2-73.
A msg board contributor called several CNS disease related 'not for profit groups', and the org reps had never heard of Anavex.
...etc...etc...
When there is no knowledge of the company, there is no interest. See Xenas post(158304) a few minutes ago showing a five minute period where 33 shares traded! This a week before Anavex's major AAIC presentations. AVXL is extremely thinly traded every day. Contrast to stock sales of Apple, Lily, Ge...
So one week before our big AAIC the SP is drifting, because nobody (outside BP and some MBs) have heard of Anavex.
Very low volume also makes the SP extremely susceptible to price manipulation. This explains the irrational SP moves. Why else would the price decline when announcing a PD trial. Fill in your own examples.
Until the word gets out about Anavex, the SP will drift and be manipulated.
SP MOVING FORWARD
--------------------
What will get the SP solid and moving up(hoping)? The knowledge and interest will generate stock volume and direction up/down. Stock volume will get the price solid and able to resist manipulation. The knowledge and interest will be driven by the science and results. Right now the small sample results and science look good.
Recall that climbing a mountain starts with the first step. As the SP and volume indicate, we are at step ONE! AAIC will get the word out past some voices in Australia, and message boards, and BP execs/scientists. AAIC will be our step two. How big a step will it be...hard to say, but it will be good knowlege about the science. Hopefully, bloggers and analysts will take it and run. But don't be disappointed as we will only be on our second step up the mountain.
Positive trial results, of course, will be huge. Then, not just bloggers and analysts, but every journalist in the world will be calling Dr.Missling to ask questions.
In summary, hang onto those shares (6 months minimum?). Realize where we are in our journey up the mountain.
DISCLAIMER
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Certainly all the above is my opinion only. Maybe the paradigm described fits your data too.
You posted "Granted, the patients/caregivers have requested to continue of the drug. That at least means the drug is benign..."
No, to me, and apparently to the patient/caregivers, that means it is benign AND they see it as worth taking AND worth the effort to request extension of their doses!
As far as your other postulate. From my discussion with the company, they are not interested in PR for stock price gains. Look for another reason.
The two big trials have been approved. TGD said 2nd half for the three trials. So 2nd half has just begun.
The analysis seems quite reasonable. I did not confirm all his sources, but the approach was reasonable, and seems to reflect the 2-73 data that has been published. This is what we longs are hoping for!
I dont understand your comment? Please elaborate.
Tnx good article. Several weeks ago I looked up anavexs u.s. patents and applications on patent.gov site. They had several. I checked the years on them and they were recent, last few years. Tgd has said the ip is in good shape.
Briefly talked with Clint (IR).
Asked him if the company would follow up the technical dicsussion at AAIC with a public relations discussion off site and he said no. He seemed very averse to doing anything like that because of the law suit several years ago. Too bad for us. My take away was that the company is taking the most narrow conservative approach, letting only the science speak, and not doing any PR.
He said fasten your seat belt for the next six months. He has said that before, and it is good advice.
Expressed my feelings that I personally,as a SH, am not interested in a buyout, at 5$ 10$ 15$, as the company should be worth much more than that (agree with bioxclub) if approvals come. He said the feeling there is exactly the same, not interested in a buyout. To be expected for pr but good to hear it confirmed anyway!
GLTAL
IIRC the patent is only a few years old and patents are good for 15 years. As xena said there are multiple patents.
You are right to be concerned about patents they are the main defense against others stealing/copying 2-73 and they are biotechs jewels!
Remember most cognitively stabilized.
Remember they asked to continue another two years.
LONGS - Status report - and PLAN
Anavex reports PD trial and stock plummets! Anavex has (seems like) great science, yet SP languishes. This is dag frustrating!
AAIC is coming up soon, so Anavex has the ear of scientists and reporters and public. These presentations and panel discussions will be very technical, and not the time or place for PR. These presentations get the attention of scientists and the competition. This is good, but maybe not enough to affect SP. As several posters will appreciate, we need to use this as part of a force multiplier.
PLAN
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However, doing public relations AT/AROUND these conferences is definitely standard operating procedure. Before a conference, companies (i.e.Anavex) typically rent a room and send notices to reporters and interest parties announcing time and place of a PR presentation. There the company representative (e.g.VP Marketing/CEO) presents discloseable factual news, plans, to REPORTERS, BLOGGERs etc. less towards scientists. This is where the company promotes itself!
These reporters, bloggers and visitors then spread the word and hopefully interest will result. This is where we will get share volume (hindering MM) and SP rise!
Hopefully, Anavex will have the interest, after the technical presentations. Then A REAL PR guy/gal has to have arranged and prepared the PR presentation! If not then:
1. shame on Anavex
2. SP will have to wait for leaked positive news or approvals
3. WE NEED TO HIRE A REAL PR TEAM!
I understand we are a dinky company, but we must take the right steps,...and we are the OWNERS.
Liked the way the moderator asked tgd how easier fda regs would create risk for the industry and tgd immediately reworded the question. Very smart. Like a good politician ouch sorry cm
To bad this is dated, but hoping AAIC wll be informative like this.
Thanks for posting.
Yes. Would appreciate your buyout estimate. Thanks for the good work.
Grassy, like your comments. I realized what 'placebo' go siried into, and had a good laugh out loud. It could have translated worse wink wink lol
LONGS please read rocalinda post 155817.
It was never clear to me what happened to the NONsuper responders.
In the article, research professor MacFarlane says the cognition of most of the 32 patients remained stable when it was expected to decline.
I think that is huge! That might be an endpoint in itself! Doesent that mean most patients would benefit fron 2-73 even if they dont have the super responder biomarker? I think that is new news, and great for patients and longs.
Many thanks rocalinda for the post.
Good one! Yes there is a good chance that is happening.
If there is no profit, no company will be interested.
Then you want the government to manage it? You think they will be more efficient and cost less than a company? Never!
Xena, love your posts, but government never does anything for less cost than COMPETING companies!
So Friday extended trading of massive amounts of avxl was good for longs for several reasons.
1. Whether avxl dropped from Russell and it was Russell index funds trading from one pocket to another, or they had purchaser lined up at a reasonable price, THEY DID NOT CRUSH THE PRICE by selling so much on open mkt.
2. Shows there is huge interest by some big boy(s) near the last mkt price.
3. Implicitly establishes a floor price.
IMHO
WOW. Great data Xena. I was never quite sure of market manipulation here, but this is proof. Thanks for the data.