LONGS: Why the stock price is...
Having watched the stock closely since late last year, I have this observation on the SP.
Premise is "NOBODY KNOWS ABOUT ANAVEX!"
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Knowledge -> Interest -> Stock Price(SP)
SP is driven by interest, but that assumes knowledge of the stock/company.
Evidence for "Nobody knows about Anavex":
Very few analysts or bloggers track Anavex.
The media barely comments on 2-73.
A msg board contributor called several CNS disease related 'not for profit groups', and the org reps had never heard of Anavex.
...etc...etc...
When there is no knowledge of the company, there is no interest. See Xenas post(158304) a few minutes ago showing a five minute period where 33 shares traded! This a week before Anavex's major AAIC presentations. AVXL is extremely thinly traded every day. Contrast to stock sales of Apple, Lily, Ge...
So one week before our big AAIC the SP is drifting, because nobody (outside BP and some MBs) have heard of Anavex.
Very low volume also makes the SP extremely susceptible to price manipulation. This explains the irrational SP moves. Why else would the price decline when announcing a PD trial. Fill in your own examples.
Until the word gets out about Anavex, the SP will drift and be manipulated.
SP MOVING FORWARD
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What will get the SP solid and moving up(hoping)? The knowledge and interest will generate stock volume and direction up/down. Stock volume will get the price solid and able to resist manipulation. The knowledge and interest will be driven by the science and results. Right now the small sample results and science look good.
Recall that climbing a mountain starts with the first step. As the SP and volume indicate, we are at step ONE! AAIC will get the word out past some voices in Australia, and message boards, and BP execs/scientists. AAIC will be our step two. How big a step will it be...hard to say, but it will be good knowlege about the science. Hopefully, bloggers and analysts will take it and run. But don't be disappointed as we will only be on our second step up the mountain.
Positive trial results, of course, will be huge. Then, not just bloggers and analysts, but every journalist in the world will be calling Dr.Missling to ask questions.
In summary, hang onto those shares (6 months minimum?). Realize where we are in our journey up the mountain.
DISCLAIMER
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Certainly all the above is my opinion only. Maybe the paradigm described fits your data too.
