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Holy crap now getting excited....
Sitting in the BB&B across from Target right now. They had literally 20-25 MyPlace 4-5 weeks ago, and of those, 5 are left. They also rec'd a shipment today of another 18 today. All info from a manager (Chad) and he said they "sell well".
Annoying trying to type on Iphone so that's all for now...
Boulder CO Target...
All sold out of MyPlace! 4-5 weeks ago there were 10-12 on display in the As Seen on TV section. Today, zero. I asked a dude stocking shelves where they were, he looked them up, and said they were "gone with none in stock". I asked if they were sold out or simply pulled from the store because they weren't selling or something, and he said, "...we don't do that... we reduce the price to get it sold before pulling it from the store.. it's too expensive to send things all over the place". I got the impression he knew what he was talking about. When I was in here a month ago they were not on sale...
Thoughts on that?
Spammer.
dokkay, let me help. I highlighted the parts applicable to your questions of littlefish:
Posted by: littlefish Date: Wednesday, October 01, 2008 1:38:07 PM
In reply to: dokkay who wrote msg# 3011 Post # of 3053
dokkay- I just got on the computer and see things are still not going well as far as price on AYSI. Let me say several things:
I'm a nonprofessional smalltime investor, I am not someone that should be looked at in a light other than that although I try to be open about things. Hopefully most of us do.
So I will try and be open here.
I personally think that the company suffered a bad Q last report at least in par tbecause of timing on a large order that I am thinking will be recouped in Q4. I can't guarantee that, but it is what several on here think.
I am not a close buddy or anything with Gene nor Alan (never met either of them).
I have talked with them and try to keep in E-Mail contact. I personally like Gene's fiscal stewardship so probably am more willing to stay with the ship whether it is sailing smoothly or going down vs what others might do. That's just me.
There are a lot of headwinds in the industry that weren't there just months ago. Realest mentioned how steel markets were falling apart in the US and it has spread it seems. And miners worldwide have suffered some tough stock performances. But as mentioned Alloy has been mostly reliant on one customer, hopefully that changes in the next year or so but how can we know at this juncture? I don't know. I'm hopeful because I thnk the product is excellent. But I have no idea what the exact reasons are for miners to use one wear plate vs another excpet it would be logical that price and performance be key elements in that equation.
This is a very small company with only one product and 2 directors (none independent) so I am taking on a lot of risk betting so big on that kind of company. Hopefully everyone understands the potential risks in microcap land.
I don't have a ton of time right now but my thoughts are that if we wait until after December, we will get a much better feel for whether last Q was actual weakness in demand or if it was just timing issues with product and delivery. Considering how much finished goods they have (highest ever) and how much raw materials (highest ever), it sure seems to me like that one mill is still working hard.
As far as the 2nd mill, it has been mentally in the works for a long time and only physically been manifesting itself more recently IMO. Gene should be back 2nd week of October so hopefully we can get some kind of update then. I'm not holding my breath on the JV with the world makrets in turmoil but who knows, maybe that will get clarified and worked out eventually too.
The company has always been lacking with investor updates and such compared to many companies, probably because in part the inability to know specific timing on things (like this 2nd mill).
The selling recently looks technically negative but has been fairly light and I picked up 1500 shares today at $1.26, small but I have quite a bit and am just doing the 'OK I'll support for a few more' even though I do want to get more in a bigger way if it breaks down on volume (as long as it isn't news driven).
In the past, the stock has had these downdrafts and people have eben nervous only to havee it recover. But this time is different in that the world markets have shifted substantially more negatively.
All that said though, I remain with my UNPROFESSIONAL opinion that next Q will be very good and hopefully reassuring to those stubborn in holding onto their shares going forward. BUT like I said I tend to hold on 'too long' compare dto others in microcap land so wew'll see where it takes me this time. I don't have any kind of big advantage either, there are several people in contact with the comapny thru E-mail now and I've never been given any kind of financial info or anything like that before. But I have been able to get at things like Gene being overseas currently and due back 2nd week oct. Probably some of you could get that info too by calling the comapny.
Anyhow, they are not very transparent and are rough on the edges for many like institutional investors but I live with it because I like the product a lot and like Gene's fiscal responsibility.
Good luck to you! I hope we all end up feeling better about things at the beginning of next year.
Gotta go. Hopefully the share price weathers the time between now and December, it is a bit of wait for news as far as earnings being their fiscal Q4.
All IMO of course.
FWIW, I YAK'd up 1/2 my AYSI last week..
But will eagerly buy back once there's clarity and a positive outlook on:
1) State of the second mill,
2) Demand for the second mill,
3) State of Iron Ore prices and demand (what happened to China? Seems like they fell off the face of the Earth!)
However, there's probably a lot more to this company than I know or understand or can glean from filings... just like to keep my gains (thanks LF and others)
MOSH: Raw: Thanks for the mention! Been in it since January and the case just keeps looking better and better...
Conservatism check: You all For or Against the bailout?
Most on this board seem to be pretty die hard republican (understandably so).
My own opinion: I think our government (our taxes) should stay out of it. Hopefully this vote gets turned down by the House, then they make it clear to the marketplace that there will be no more revisions of the bill.
Then, finally, the bankers might stop waiting for the government auction and figure out how to get out of this themselves.
I understand there's short term pain... but maybe part of the pain is due to the market sitting around waiting for the bailout plan?
Conservatism check: You all For or Against the bailout?
My own opinion: I think our government (our taxes) should stay out of it. Hopefully this vote gets turned down by the House, then they make it clear to the marketplace that there will be no more revisions of the bill.
Then, finally, the bankers might stop waiting for the government auction and figure out how to get out of this themselves.
I understand there's short term pain... but maybe part of the pain is due to the market sitting around waiting for the bailout plan?
We really care about the DD; you said there was a R/S rumor. Please substantiate this claim in any way, shape, or form as has already been asked.
Thanks Len for the data. What do you make of it?
It's an interesting question: Is the DOW higher or lower after a huge point gain, and in what time frames?
The fact that there does not seem to be a correlation either way is itself a conclusion.
What do you think? Thanks-
Just marked you assholes again.
Being wrong is just another service I offer...
Posted by: seeksup Date: Wednesday, August 06, 2008 2:20:54 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 168823
Next contest: Membermarks this board has in one month if The_Yak continues to post ad nauseum:
As of 8/6/08 it's 1145.
Any guesses?
Your mistake was almost as bad as that time those bankers created Credit Default Swaps down there in Boca...
Almost.
(kidding, of course!)
You're not blind. Neither McCain or Obama are there, nor should they be.
http://memberguide.gpoaccess.gov/
(TENTATIVE) PLAN REACHED:
Congress, White House reach financial bailout deal
Sunday September 28, 2:32 am ET
By Charles Babington and Alan Fram, Associated Press Writers
Congress leaders, White House reach tentative deal on $700 billion financial bailout deal
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congressional leaders and the Bush administration reached a tentative deal early Sunday on a landmark bailout of imperiled financial markets whose collapse could plunge the nation into a deep recession.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the $700 billion accord just after midnight but said it still has to be put on paper.
"We've still got more to do to finalize it, but I think we're there," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also participated in the negotiations in the Capitol.
"We worked out everything," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., the chief Senate Republican in the talks.
Congressional leaders hope to have the House vote on the measure Monday. A Senate vote would come later.
The plan calls for the Treasury Department to buy deeply distressed mortgage-backed securities and other bad debts held by banks and other investors. The money should help troubled lenders make new loans and keep credit lines open. The government would later try to sell the discounted loan packages at the best possible price.
At the insistence of House Republicans, some money would be devoted to a program that would encourage holders of distressed mortgage-backed securities to keep them and buy government insurance to cover defaults.
The legislation would place "reasonable" limits on severance packages for executives of companies that benefit from the rescue plan, said a senior administration official who was authorized to speak only on background. It would affect fired executives of financial firms, and executives of firms that go bankrupt. Some of the provisions would be retroactive and some prospective, the official said.
Also, the government would receive stock warrants in return for the bailout relief, giving taxpayers a chance to share in financial companies' future profits.
To help struggling homeowners, the plan would require the government to try renegotiating the bad mortgages it acquires with the aim of lowering borrowers' monthly payments so they can keep their homes.
The measure's main elements were proposed a week ago by the Bush administration, with Paulson heading efforts to push it through the Democratic-controlled Congress. Democrats insisted on greater congressional oversight, more taxpayer protections, help for homeowners facing possible foreclosure, and restrictions on executives' compensation.
To some degree, all those items were added.
At the insistence of House Republicans, who threatened to sidetrack negotiations at midweek, the insurance provision was added as an alternative to having the government buy distressed securities. House Republicans say it will require less taxpayer spending for the bailout.
But the Treasury Department has said the insurance provision would not pump enough money into the financial sector to make credit sufficiently available. The department would decide how to structure the insurance provisions, said Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., one of the negotiators.
Money for the rescue plan would be phased in, he said. The first $350 billion would be available as soon as the president requested it. Congress could try to block later amounts if it believed the program was not working. The president could veto such a move, however, requiring extra large margins in the House and Senate to override.
Despite the changes made during an intense week of negotiations, the heart of the program remains Bush's original idea: To have the government spend billions of dollars to buy mortgage-backed securities whose value has plummeted as hundreds of thousands of Americans have defaulted on their home loans.
Senate Majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Saturday that the goal was to come up with a final agreement before the Asian markets open Sunday night. "Everybody is waiting for this thing to tip a little bit too far," he said, so "we may not have another day."
Hours later, when he and others told reporters of the plan in a post-midnight news conference, Reid referred to the sometimes testy nature of the negotiations.
"We've had a lot of pleasant words," he said, "and some that haven't always been pleasant."
"We're very pleased with the progress made tonight," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto. "We appreciate the bipartisan effort to deal with this urgent issue."
It was not immediately clear how many House Republicans might vote for the measure. With the election five weeks away, Democrats have said they would not push a plan that appeared sharply partisan in nature.
Picked up more MOSH. Now 10% of my (meager) portfolio.
Hope others are starting to feel as confident in this one as I am...
FRE will be weak until the bailout deal.. then BOOM (gut feeling...)
Bought more @2.00. Still waaay undervalued IMO <EOM>
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FRE: Thanks for the response and - after deciphering what it said (I'm in healthcare!) - understand what your guru is saying. However, the real question to us investors, in my opinion, is: What is fair value of the FRE shares?
Based on all of my DD it's higher than when I started buying (.60 down to .36), and even at $3, I still feel it has a few dollars to go. Unless they extend the "no-shorting" rule.. if that happens, all bets are off!
Thanks again bbotcs for that info. It helps me to be more careful about holding this into the future-
Looove all the numbers so far (of which you've pointed out, and are easily verified in the company's filings).
But because I'm always critical before buying (more), I have a couple concerns for you OTC or anyone else:
1) Seems the 500K from the former director are gone, yet the market hasn't brought the s/p back up. Do I just need to be more patient?
2) Even though the company showed nice growth, I'm still skeptical that the market will value this company nicely until there's clear signs of stabilization to the economy (not just the housing market!) Thoughts?
3) I wonder if there's any risk at all with this OSHA situation, found in the Contingent Liability section of the 10-Q?
The former chief accounting officer, aside from other remedies, is seeking damages for lost future compensation of $990,000, plus lost bonuses and the value of options to purchase an additional 250,000 shares of common stock of the Company.
The guy was only with the company for a month... the company of course says there's no merit to the case... but I still wonder if he'll at least get a settlement (maybe half?). You hearing anything?
Thanks OTC. This looks like a good little growing company!
FNM/FRE:
It's a luxury to have all of these great resources on iHub, namely, the VMC board and the SwingTrade board. In the case of FRE and FNM, Rawnoc outlined in great detail the case for FRE a couple weeks ago. Yes, Rawnoc can be offensive personally, but his DD and stock-picking is usually to be envied.
Once one reads through the FRE board's ibox put together by Raw (and yes, ALL of the links), it appears likely that FRE will continue to rally.
In the near term, we have the pending bailout/auction plan as a catalyst, and it appears that recent housing data is showing at least a peak in the amount of inventory (good news!). Doesn't mean prices will stop going down, but I do not think the home price decreases will be as massive.
Also, we finally may have some enforcement of the "no naked shorting" rules in FNM/FRE, and we have the "no-shorting" rule in effect until October 2nd; if this is extended (which has been rumored), we'll have a true bull in FRE.
All just my opinion, and again, I really enjoy the many opinions and thoughts from two very different iHub boards. Have learned a lot from both!
KIK: SVLF: Only crickets have answered your question...
Seriously, even though they have insurance, I think the risk is too much without knowing the effect of the damage and lost vacation time. The lack of "knowledge", I believe, is what is scaring people off.
But if the s/p gets too much lower it might be a good play. Just my opinion-
Isn't 85billion divided by 200million only $425?
If during this whole discussion you would have made it clear that SHAREHOLDERS were liquidating (instead of insinuating that FRE was " liquidating"), I would have never had an issue with that particular argument of yours. So thanks for being clear in your response to us that time (seriously).
Rawnoc wrote:(1) Stock is being liquidated. lol
brute_force wrote: The stock has been liquidated from approx. $70/share to its' current price. I have no idea what to attribute to the drastic devaluation of this stock other than shareholders selling it.
Brute_force just wrote that the stock was being liquidated and devalued in the same breath. This is the complete opposite from the last few days, where he's been adamant that the stock was being liquidated and NOT simply devalued.
It's clear from the filings that the stock has not been nor is currently being "liquidated" - and it's becoming increasingly clear that brute-force's intentions are less than virtuous.
In my opinion only-
Chart of Housing Financier Implosions over Time:
Posted by: seeksup Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008 12:17:34 PM
In reply to: Rawnoc (SwingTrade Board) who wrote msg# 167520 Post # of 167571
Are we hitting a top for housing financier implosions (or a bottom of the housing market?)
Chart of Housing Finance Implosions over Time:
Are we hitting a top?
Please, I beg everyone, read the ibox. It includes the full Purchase Agreement.
That's from Sep 5th. We now know the plan - which includes the exact opposite of wiping out the common shares; it backstops them (which is why we're in a better situation than LEH).
emkerk: Read the ibox and follow the links, and then if you have questions, just ask. Good luck!
SVLF: From their website... tough to say how this may effect revs in this quarter, even with insurance to cover damages:
Special Update September 14, 2008 – Hurricane Ike
The hurricane made landfall on Saturday, September 13, along the Texas Coastline near Silverleaf’s Seaside Resort in Galveston with its tropical storm winds and heavy rains traveling further into the state.
Seaside damage has not been fully assessed. The timing of the reopening of Seaside is uncertain. Further inland, Piney Shores sustained minimal damage. The resort should be fully operational within one to two weeks. Any owners with vacation weeks at Seaside or Piney Shores affected by the Hurricane are guaranteed their vacation. Silverleaf will either accommodate them at another Silverleaf Resort or offer them an alternate week.
Owners with questions or concerns about the impact of the hurricane can contact our Owner Services Department by calling 1-800-801-4083. Our email address is info@silverleafresorts.com.
On behalf of Silverleaf and Employees, we extend our thoughts and prayers to those affected by Hurricane Ike.
MyPlace finally available at Sears.com (since end of July):
Dear Sears.com Customer,
Good News! The My Place Laptop Workstation, 00P #00807028000P you requested is now available at Sears.com. You may go directly to the product page by clicking here .
Please note: You are under no obligation to buy the product. Sears does not reserve products or make any guarantees about availability. We recommend that you visit our site and purchase the item as soon as possible, as some items sell out very quickly.
Best regards,
Sears.com Customer Care
SVLF: No reply as of yet... and with 3 out of 14 of their properties in the storm's path, I'm concerned enough to sell my shares too.
SVLF: I emailed IR on Monday and asked about their preparations for Ike in regards to the three properties that may be affected.
There has been no response as of yet, which is troubling, because last time I emailed them there was a response within 12 hours. One can only hope they are sacrificing shareholder communications for hurricane preparations!
Technicals? Posted by: Rawnoc Date: Thursday, September 04, 2008 9:23:49 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 166122
Ben Marshall, Rochester Cahan and Jared Cahan recently released a report titled "Technical Analysis Around the World: Does it Ever Add Value?" In their conclusion, it generally doesn't. Marshall and the Cahans based their findings on their investigation of the effectiveness of 5,806 technical trading rules (such as moving averages and support and resistance analyses) in 49 international markets between 2001 and 2007. The levels of effectiveness that they found turned out to be roughly what you'd get from random occurrences, suggesting that the TA wasn't adding anything.
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/08/08/technical-analysis-a-damning-verdict.aspx
I laughed out loud with that post and disturbed my therapists during their lunch.
Thanks a lot Rawnoc!
Being sold out means they'll hit their projections for profitability.
Now, if there's a problem with manufacturing the anticipated supply upon which they base their projections... now that's a whole other issue!
INRB: Everything okay?
Zecco says it's an "invalid symbol". No news on IR Products website, nothing on Yahoo.
Anyone else seeing INRB as an "invalid symbol"? Thanks-