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Interesting to see Merck estimate cut.
They're going to spin off Merck-Medco at some point. Don't know what this will do to the fundamentals, but it sure makes long term valuations more complicated!
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
We are like 3 little Choirboys!
Yeah -- the ones the priest has his special eye on.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Guess you're not expecting an invitation to the White House for a State Dinner!
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Yeah, well, so s/he might say. <g>
Oh well, on the internet, as we know, nobody knows you're a dog.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Your approach and mine differ somewhat, then. I look at future stock price, trying to predict on the basis of projected earnings growth and PE ratios what price I think a stock will achieve at some point within the next five years. Then I look at the present price to determine whether that price will give me at least 15% annualized growth. I don't really look at the present price in terms of current value of the stock -- don't really care. I'm focussed on what I think the stock price will achieve over my five year time horizon.
Just a somewhat different approach.
By that measure, based on the very preliminary look I took at it, the stock would have to come down to 40 or not much above that to become attractive to me.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
FWIW, I get a quick value of $69
Is that what you think it should be selling at right now, or is that a future target, and if so how far out?
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Mellow out. It was a JOKE.
It's just that NEVI gets so much attention that it was the first thing that popped into my fingertips.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Not totally shabby.
Gets a 2, out of 10. Which makes it 3 points better than your usual attempts at humor.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I'm more often starving for chest nuts than for apples! <g>
But considering the story of the Garden of Eden, is there really a difference? <bg>
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Bob -- somebody mentioned that they could see tags where sounds were. But using next 10, I don't see any tags at all. I have no idea who or what messages were tossing those sounds (now turned off, thank you!) at me. And now, if somebody puts in sounds, it doesn't look as though i'll have any idea they're there.
Yes, I know. It's a Netscape 4.7x / Win 98 issue, right? <g>
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Uh oh.
I posted in opposition to sound, but now I find that JM agrees with me.
Hmmm. Maybe I need to rethink my position -- it always worries me when JM agrees with me about anything.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
But, but . . .
that's our DESTINY!!!
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
well, quarterly profits may indeed be up, but sales are remaining pretty flat. Do you think there's much long term growth in Sears?
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Growth has been nice and steady the past few years, but at a rate of less than 10%. Assuming that doesn't change, and assuming the historical PE range remains steady, as it has over the past five years, it looks pretty fully valued to me. If it dropped to around the 40 range, or maybe even 50 considering the dividend, I could get really excited about it, but at 72 it looks awfully rich to me.
That interview must have generated some real excitement, though -- it's up almost 6 today, or nearly 9 percent. Nice move for those who gambled on it and got out -- wonder who might have known he was going to be a guest on the program?
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Gee, I'm a chestnut too.
Both chest nuts, eh?
You examine my nuts, and I examine your chest, and we'll both fulfill our destiny.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Driving a flying car. Flying and driving together.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Rodney Dangerfieldisms....
1. A girl phoned me the other day and said... "Come on over, there's nobody home." I
went over. Nobody was home.
2. If it weren't for pick-pocketers I'd have no sex life at all.
3. And we were poor too. Why if I wasn't born a boy... I'd have nothing to play with.
4. During sex, my girlfriend always wants to talk to me. Just the other night she called
me from a hotel.
5. One day as I came home early from work... I saw a guy jogging naked. I said to the
guy... "Hey buddy... why are you doing that for?" He said... "Because you came home
early."
6. It's been a rough day. I got up this morning... put on a shirt and a button fell off. I
picked up my briefcase and the handle came off. I'm afraid to go to the bathroom.
7. When I played in the sandbox the cat kept covering me up.
8. I could tell that my parents hated me. My bath toys were a toaster and a radio.
9. My mother never breast fed me. She told me that she only liked me as a friend.
10. My father carries around the picture of the kid who came with his wallet.
11. When I was born... the doctor came out to the waiting room and said to my
father... "I'm very sorry. We did everything we could...but he pulled through, anyway."
12. My mother had morning sickness after I was born.
13. I remember the time I was kidnapped and they sent a piece of my finger to my
father. He said he wanted more proof.
14. Once when I was lost... I saw a policeman and asked him to help me find my
parents. I said to him... "Do you think we'll ever find them?" He said... "I don't know
kid... there are so many places they can hide."
16. My wife made me join a bridge club. I jump off next Tuesday.
17. I worked in a pet shop and people kept asking how big I'd get.
18. I went to see my doctor. "Doctor, every morning when I get up and look in the
mirror... I feel like throwing up. What's wrong with me?" He said... "I don't know but
your eyesight is perfect."
19. My psychiatrist told me I'm going crazy. I told him... "If you don't mind I'd like a
second opinion." He said... "Alright... you're ugly too!"
21. I remember when I swallowed a bottle of sleeping pills. My doctor told me to have
a few drinks and get some rest.
22. My wife can't cook!, when we go on picnics, I bring TUMS for the ants!
23. My wife can't cook! I left a piece of floss in the sink, two roaches hung
themselves!
24. My wife can't cook! I picked up the steak, it still had marks on it
where the jockey was hittin it!
25. My wife can't cook! We pray AFTER we eat!
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Okay, we'll make sure she doesn't frive.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I can see this becoming a disaster
in the future if it is abused.
To say nothing of the spamming uses, or uses to pump a stock. Think of signing onto a board and having every message from a poster (presumably these could be included in a tag line) screetching "Buy NEVI NOW NOW NOW NOW NOW. This thing is going through the ROOF. BUY before it's TOO LAAAAAAAATE!!!!!!!!!"
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Is that why I''m suddenly getting obnoxious sounds while I'm browsing IH?
TURN IT OFF, BOB.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Wine, women, and song.
All three are better with some age on them.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Yep. Still to young to be allowed to play with the adults.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
We can.
I'm not sure THEY can.
There are young kids out there, don't forget.
Good night--sleep tight!
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Yes, but do you know what I mean?
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Hey, quiet down.
Some of us are trying to get some sleep in here.
Quietest place in IH.
At least until you came along with your "knock knock" garbage.
Sheesh.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Let us know what your true research turns up.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
may buy in on speculation today
Tsk tsk. On this board, yet! <g>
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I would want to know exactly how they valued Datek. Cutomers can be very fleeting things -- if they planned to pay so much per customer, I would worry. It isn't like cable companies, where you have a franchise; there it makes more sense to value a purchase by actual or potential customers. But anybody can flee a broker relatively easily. Not much brand loyalty there.
I wouldl want to know exactly what they thought they were buying, and what value they were placing on it.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I do agree with your understanding.
The key, to me,as you said, is long term investments Not situations which may require an instant decision to take advantage of some perceived short-term correction in the stock price.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I agree with you that financial companies require a different kind of look -- their "product" is less easy to value than a toaster.
But I think subprime lenders may in fact be easier because you start out knowing that their loans aren't assumed all to be secure, that they ARE going to experience higher loan losses. So you have to make sure they're writing off loans every year, not carrying huge numbers of nonperforming loans. And, of course, they get much higher interest rates because of the higher risks. So if they can manage their risks better than other sub-prime lenders, they have greater prospects.
Once nice thing is that their loans are all relatively small, so they aren't likely to get hit big time by a single default, such as an Enron or Calpine or Kmart. And their losses are fairly predictable, so if they are accounting for them properly, they're just a cost of doing business. And in NICK's case, they have been successful for a number of years, which does give one confidence. And their accountants are not Arthur Andersen!
I'm certainly not trying to sell you on NICK. I can understand fully your concerns about valuing financial businesse. But I appreciate the chance to use your concerns to talk my way through some of these issues both for my own benefit and so if they get raised in the club meeting I'll have already thought about them and gotten both your wisdom and that of anybody else here willing to comment.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I just calculated something.
There are about 6 million residents of Israel, 80% Jewish. There are about 280 million US citizens.
So far they have lost, I understand, about 400 people to suicide bombers in the past 18 months. That would work out to an equivalent of 18,700 Americans, or nearly 7 World Trade Center suicide bombings.
If over the next 18 months we had suicide bombers hit six other cities with the same devestating effects as the WTC bombing, how open would WE be to countries urging restraint on us, urging us to withdraw from militry action against the nations and peoples which had perpetuated those bombings?
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
except alcohol which I still maintain is far
worse than pot
Far worse socially.
I don't know of vary many people under the influence of pot who get mad and beat up their spouses. Ask any cop on the family disturbance beat whether she would rather face a drunk or somebody stoned on pot. No question which is more dangerous, both to themselves and to society.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Personally... I'd legalize it all, tax it, and use the tax money for rehab programs. Would take organized
crime out of the picture, lower the price, and ensure the quality...
Do not advocate hard drug use... but not about to save anyone from themselves.
Nice to find somebody else with my basic view of drug use, except I'm not sure I would use all that much of it for rehab programs. Rehab should just be part of normal health insurance coverage.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I don't know whether the law has changed, but . . .
about 40 years ago my father was a CPA with a major firm--one of what was then the big 8. One day they were hired to represent a company which was being audited by the IRS. Not an existing client, but wanted some advice in connection with the audit. So dad was assigned to go out. He met the company president and a team of IRS agents at the company warehouse down by the docks. As they went through the books, it became quite clear that this was a fencing operation. They had meticulous records of what they had paid their employees, all on the payroll, to rip off whole trailerloads of merchandise, had all their sales records, everything quite in order, and had paid all their taxes to the penny. The only thing the IRS agents could do was argue over whether the payments to the trucking firm insiders they bought information about loads, schedules, and destinations from were legitimate business expenses. Dad managed to convince them that they were merely commissons for sales leads, which were legal and therefore deductible, that they were innocent of any crime until proved guilty so there was no crime in the legal sense, so they were fine. So the audit was clean.
And, as the company president knew quite well, the IRS agents were absolutely prohibited from sharing any of their information with the police. Here they knew the whole details of the operation, who was stealing trailers, who was buying stolen goods, who was selling the information -- and absolutely nothing they could do about it since information gained in the process of a tax audit was, at that time, totally confidential.
The company president knew that the IRS was his potential nemesis, and so he just paid his taxes quite openly and legally, which was the cheapest protection he could buy!
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Very weird. I have no idea why the system would react differently on different days when I boot it up fresh.
Oh well. Must be some special feature Bill Gates put into Windows to sabatoge Netscape.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
I agree about EOT -- it's definitely in the "special situations" rather than investment category.
But as to NICK, a subprime lender can still do a fine job of making money if it runs its business well. It's a needed service, it has an easy to understand business model, it has a clear market niche, and it has shown consistent success in carrying out its business model. It's still quite small, so there is plenty of growth potential. It all depends, clearly, on your own investment criteria, and this may not itself be the right company for a long term investor, but it has a number of the basic ingredients I think a long term growth investor should be looking for.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Bob --
I spoke -- or should I say I keyboarded -- too soon. The bold typeface is back this morning.
Did you change anything?
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Well, that's a relief, since I recall some enjoyable flirtations in the past, and I would hate to find that I had been flirting with a dog.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
Now that is purely sexist.
Besides, how do you know she's a woman? "On the Internet they don't know you're a dog."
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.
She made a special plea to me to clean you up if I possibly could. I told her it was probably hopeless, but I would do my best.
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The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.