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And anyone who exercised his warrants has lost a bundle. I hope investors had a chance to withdraw exercises but somehow I doubt it.
Jon
OT OT HP
And did you know that much of the patent work and manufacturing is actually done by Canon?
Jon
MYGN has taken this to the next level and its stock price has done well recently as its testing diagnostics business grows very well. Somewhat controversial charging what it does for some of the breast cancer screening tests which may or may not work that well (something like $4K a pop). This business for them is probably worth the current stock price, making one wonder about other companies' AD valuations.
Jon
Hasn't that happened to some extent already? I thought I remember that there were several LBOs in the space back about 5-10 years and they were "rolling up" smaller players.
Jon
That was another SEPR project by the way.
Jon
PGS,
Agreed that CELG valuation is a bit absurd, but it is a mkt darling for now. Reminds me of DNA a few years ago and AMLN today.
Jon
One very long NBIX holder has basically accused the FDA of reversing itself due to senior level personnel on the Lunesta approval decision, going so far as moving it from not approvable to approvable with a quick approval thereafter. There is some evidence in the file of something weird happening, although I must point out that the worry in that case (some cancer and pre-cancer evidence) came on a drug whose racemic form is the largest seller in Europe with no evidence of cancer increases. That would have provided an obvious angle to be less worried. AND I do find it hard to believe the FDA would have been lenient on a consumer focused non-life critical drug being used by millions in this environment.
Jon
ACTC - go look at the "financings" they did last week and you see why it came back to earth so hard. They lowered exercise prices on some warrants to induce exercise and in return, also granted new warrants. Huh? The warrantholders needed extra inducement after being handed free money?
Jon
NBIX
You will see by my posts on the SI Board that I do not disagree with you on mgmt taking new options themselves later - effectively a double down strategy as they will keep old and take more new options than they would have.
I still do not believe this action telegraphs the FDA meetings. Management may have needed to act to keep employees in crisis mode. I do not see how it telegraphs bad news (which I personally think is more likely than not). It could telegraph delays in getting the meetings also by the way although they have said nothing recently about delays.
Jon
OR they will hold up the news "to analyze" the meetings until after the window closes. OR that is part of the risk the employees accept. Remember, top management controls this process not rank and file.
Jon
They should likely be reporting on their meetings with FDA in that timeframe.
Jon
My understanding is first meeting is on IR which is at best a $200 MM indication (although pin on the NBIX board argues differently saying IR is SO much better than Sonata and Rozerem - which is unscheduled by the way - that it will do much more than folks think). The second meeting, about a month later, will be for extended release version which got not approvable and which analysts thought could do $1 B eventually by itself). Key issue is that it will be hard to get approval and scheduling with DEA in time to launch ahead of Ambien generic.
Oh yeah, NBIX is going to stay silent on first meeting outcome until second meeting has been had. And they will likely overly-spin the meetings. Go check out their PR work around the misfiling of the NDAs over a year ago and then their filing over the PDUFA extensions and then the spin over the non-approvals. The analysts lapped it all up, until recently. Will be interesting to see if the spin is accepted again.
Jon
Same pricing for voice?
Jon
PS Have used it before but suspect it brought my computer down and stopped and uninstalled it.
I do think some shenanigans happen but do believe we little guys think it happens much more than it does. Merrill does not need to buy shares 200 at a time to accumulate a position. And the shares showing up on the filings are most likely street name accounts held for you and me.
Jon
No it belongs on InvestorVillage along with statements that Merrill is manipulating shares of ELN into its own hands by having brokers calling little old ladies and telling them it is too risky and is rated a Sell. I do love the posts that the banks are putting out sell recommendations while accumulating shares for their own books. The amount of shares bought for proprietary accounts not using arb techniques is minimal. Most of the shares showing up under the banks' names are held in mutual funds or are in street name accounts (margin accounts). It never ceases to amaze me what some folks believe.
Jon
What is the best platform to use to watch the ECNs/Level II quotes?
Jon
Yeah but commenting on a 2% move downward in a stock with a CEO leaving as not being well received is a bit much! Kind of like commenting that a 5% down move in a stock in an up move is not that bad (IDIX). Now since I happen to own a little of both, I am somewhat unbiased. Dew's biases on stocks he does not own are often aired for all of us to see. As are his blinders for stocks he loves. I happen to own one he loves and one he hates.
Jon
Thanks for the negative spin Dew - I expected it and you did not disappoint. Just more par for the course.
Jon
But shouldn't that allow an informed observer to make money? Swoop in and buy those stocks with solid chances after the sell-offs? Clinically pursuasive should often lead to approvals and sales.
Jon
It just goes to show that you cannot negotiate with someone who does not want to negotiate. Jeez - they were out to get them anyway they could.
Jon
Goldman turns negative on IDIX.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22731480
Jon
Apotec?
Jon
I would think writing this letter to folks who could influence the FTC process (which is political after all) could be used against him. It goes to intent. Lawyers out there?
Jon
I guess I would say that they made their own beds and now they can lie in them. ouch! I have to think CEPH is a short in here somewhere.
Jon
Blue Cross on Cyberonics device.
Jon
It looks like BMY was set up here (look at the Sherman quotes) - would be interesting to see if deliberate sabotage negates the deal in the courts (if deliberate sabotage could be proven).
Jon
I have also seen 3%.
Jon
And these numbers (Lucentis) are not in estimates for PDLI as I understand them.
Jon
Some form of coating?
Jon
Ceph getting hit (but has rebounded like 10%), probably on worries on patent dispute agreements.
Jon
I was short CELG for a brief moment in time (broke even somehow) but to me the valuation is murky at best. Reminds me of DNA when it was a hundred a year or so ago, except with a worse pipe and product folio. It is also one of the biggest boards at IVillage since with YMB exodus a week or so ago. Very momo'ish.
I would also put ELN into this camp but personally find it hard to short. $7 B mkt cap with $2 B of debt (and a buck in cash so net debt of a buck). $500 MM of diffuse revenues (nano is good but the other?). 1/2 of one product with one severe side effect which the bulls insist does not kill people by itself (with no real evidence to that). Self-described neuros claiming they will be conservative in Tysabri use. Great early AD pipe - but not like AD pipes are expensive (check out MYGN and some of the neuros).
Jon
Thomas,
He bashed MNTA for signing a partnership deal with Novartis saying it did not show value of technology as it was NOT (edited) a new partner and also bashing lack of cash upfront (other than for stock sell). He ignored fact that Novartis threw in two drugs of its own to get partnership. Contrast this to IDIX, whose hepatitis deals are with whom? Novartis. Which area is strongest at Novartis (hepatitis or generics - another edit here)? Generics. Which area is Novartis teaming with everyone? Hepatitis.
I happen to own both MNTA and IDIX (which is acting somewhat badly recently BTW) and am even breakeven on both. But I am calling this behavior out.
Jon
I assume in-licensing did not work and they must have either met with FDA and discovered how hard launching IR will be or are waiting to launch both together at a later date (say a few years). I wonder if they should bought that drug which OSCI just bought.
Jon
Great job, doc! Good luck!
Jon
Way way OT
I find it interesting the growth strategy is China, Japan and the Philippines. I find that interesting given 1) China is not a good market for donuts most likely do to differences in preferences (Dunkin opened and closed in HK) and Chinese like things less sweet (comes from my Chinese wife), 2) Japan is not a big donut market either, and 3) Philippines is a huge donut mkt with many competitors and is a place where a donut costs something like a nickel or dime. I could see Malaysia or Singapore or Thailand being ok - still a lot of competitors but very sweet tooths (Buffet's DQ is popular in many of those places as is Auntie Anne).
Jon
paliperidone ER
Jon
And one more thought, depending on how many shares are outstanding, and if price was less than preference price here, it might be possible shares are not converted.
Jon
Sometimes pref shares issued in certain rounds will have special rights in takeovers also, such as accumulated dividends or higher pref rates. I don't know the details here but have seen later rounds give some special preferences versus earlier rounds.
Jon
This was in reality a below market deal given the lack of real proceeds for the options. Usually an option like this for that long might be worth half or more of the current stock price. That would mean they should have gotten at least $4 MM more so a have at least a 15-20% discount.
Jon
Good question - does seem there is some correlation between high LDL and AD. My big question is do statins seem to help because they improve lipid profile or because of the inflammatory response? Actually, one could ask the same question for heart disease and statins.
Jon