Biotech Values

[Jonathan Robinson]

I was short CELG for a brief moment in time (broke even somehow) but to me the valuation is murky at best. Reminds me of DNA when it was a hundred a year or so ago, except with a worse pipe and product folio. It is also one of the biggest boards at IVillage since with YMB exodus a week or so ago. Very momo'ish.

I would also put ELN into this camp but personally find it hard to short. $7 B mkt cap with $2 B of debt (and a buck in cash so net debt of a buck). $500 MM of diffuse revenues (nano is good but the other?). 1/2 of one product with one severe side effect which the bulls insist does not kill people by itself (with no real evidence to that). Self-described neuros claiming they will be conservative in Tysabri use. Great early AD pipe - but not like AD pipes are expensive (check out MYGN and some of the neuros).

Jon