Biotech Values

[Jonathan Robinson]

My understanding is first meeting is on IR which is at best a $200 MM indication (although pin on the NBIX board argues differently saying IR is SO much better than Sonata and Rozerem - which is unscheduled by the way - that it will do much more than folks think). The second meeting, about a month later, will be for extended release version which got not approvable and which analysts thought could do $1 B eventually by itself). Key issue is that it will be hard to get approval and scheduling with DEA in time to launch ahead of Ambien generic.

Oh yeah, NBIX is going to stay silent on first meeting outcome until second meeting has been had. And they will likely overly-spin the meetings. Go check out their PR work around the misfiling of the NDAs over a year ago and then their filing over the PDUFA extensions and then the spin over the non-approvals. The analysts lapped it all up, until recently. Will be interesting to see if the spin is accepted again.

Jon