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Arch Crawford perspectives
FYI
------------------------------
January 5, 2015 Vol. 15/1
http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/documents/CP15_Jan5.pdf
The First Shale Casualty
WBH Energy Files For Bankruptcy; Many More Coming
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2015 23:33 -0500
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-07/first-shale-casualty-wbh-energy-files-bankruptcy-many-more-coming
cartoon
(1) http://i.guancha.cn/news/2014/12/09/20141209104029496.jpg
(2) (source: guancha.cn)
China Hosts Latin American Bloc, Hails Ties With Region
BEIJING — Jan 8, 2015, 8:22 AM ET
By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN and JACK CHANG Associated Press
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-hosts-latin-american-leaders-hails-ties-region-28073494
-------------------------------
China enters the backyard of Monroe Doctrine
bi-direction trade
$500 billion 2025 (projection)
$257 billion 2013 (depends on the soruce, 261.6)
$10 billion 2000
China to invest $250 billion in the next 10 years
31 nations’ leaders from Caribbean and Latin America in Beijing
01/08/2015
Buenos Aires Subway (complete)
Nicaragua announces start of China-backed canal to rival Panama
Hydroelectric Dam in Ecuador - under construction
Peru-Bolivia-Brazil inter-oceanic railroad (in planing)
01/09/15 SPX
01/08
R1 2063.92 actual 2064.43 (01/09), in progress
R2 2069.69 (0.764)
S1 2043-2041
S2 2030
open gap
2030.61-2029.61
plan:
i am waiting for a 'Lower-high' (see illustration chart) and close below 2019 for the confirmation of that Lower high, to buy inverse ETF for a large swing trade. Do your own DD.
illustration chart link: http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/b05b53dc-f954-444d-a666-6c2d322d5bab/stocks2_20110913112718.jpg
discussion
E-wavers have a 'debate' in between a bullish Minute 5 wave series and bearish a-b-c wave series
Minute wave one 1976.45-2093.55
Minute wave two 2093.55-1992.44
Minute wave three 1992.44-????
wave a 2093.55-1992.44
wave b 1992.44-????
so far, the bounce-off from 1992.44 has retraced 0.707 (2093.55-1992.44). There is no clear winner which count has the upper hand (the gauge is 2030/2072); The movements in the last three sessions gave fast traders good opportunities because the index moved almost to the exact on Fibonacci points; imho, a monthly close below 1992.44 suggests a significant Low in March/April
UUP SPX
SPX:
resistance 2063.92, 2069.69
supports 2043-2041, 2030
US Dollar Index - Mar 15 (DXH5), Day's Range: 92.19 - 92.76.
UUP moves up accordingly.
The US dollar is at its highest level in nine years.
FYI
The dollar, on a ‘hurricane path of destruction,’ is set to fall
By Michael Brush
Published: Jan 7, 2015 6:28 p.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dollar-on-a-hurricane-path-of-destruction-may-be-about-to-fall-2015-01-07
Why is the dollar about to fall? Because that’s what the Federal Reserve wants since the strong dollar is starting to create problems in debt markets that hurt U.S. growth, McDonald maintains. The euro has fallen more than 14% versus the dollar since March.
01/07/15 SPX local resistance
local resistance is 2022.16-2025.18 before index grows into an intraday resistance 2033.06-2039.53 (short term bullish if crosses from below)
01/06/15 Zone 1994-2019
intraday low 1992.44, in progress. projected 1989.31
- enters the old battle zone 1994-2019 again
- chart shows lower targets & resistance (short term bullish if crosses from below)
archive
Monday, 12/15/14 02:15:28 PM
1994-2019 is the old battle zone back to late August
01/06/15
11/15/14
01/06/15 SPX
intraday low 1995.61 – in progress
index crosses below the critical support 2018.58
the next meaningful support
in route 1 is:
1998.45 (0.786)
in route 2 is:
1989.31
Monday, 01/05/15 10:06:33 AM
route 1: (2093.55-1972.56)
2064.92 2047.21 2018.78 (0.618 critical)
route 2 : (2093.55-1820.66)
2029.15 1989.31 1924.90
>> Oil now at $50 Bucks ?
Carl, Again With the Crude?!!
December 29, 2014 at 05:12 PM | written by Carl Swenlin
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2014/12/carl-again-with-crude.html
The key to support for USO will be where crude oil ($WTIC) finally bottoms. The bottom panel on the chart below shows a support zone between 50 and 35 where it is reasonable to assume that the decline will end.
Conclusion: Today's breakdown tells us that further decline in oil prices is pretty much assured. The first obvious support for $WTIC is around 50.
The DecisionPoint Trend Model Picture for 2015
January 02, 2015 at 08:52 PM | written by Erin Heim
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2015/01/the-big-picture-for-2015.html
Given the very negative configuration of the EMAs, DecisionPoint remains very bearish regarding oil.
>> EMs in collapse mode.
photo sources: miercn.com guancha.cn
The Outlook for the New Year
December 29, 2014 Paul Craig Roberts
Washington has shaped 2015 to be a year of conflict. The conflict could be intense.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/12/29/outlook-new-year-paul-craig-roberts-2/
(jumanji0881) E-wave/CB manipulation
The long run up has 'emboldened' speculator’s appetite. for example E-waver Avi Gilburt has the target 2500 for S&P500, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-sp-500-on-its-way-to-as-high-as-2500-2014-12-23
The tricky thing is that each wave count in E-wave principle is timeless ( time invariant, time independent), a bullish long term wave projection is just a wishful thinking.
The long term E-wave speculators cannot simply assume the money inflow into S&P500 can be maintained as rigorous as it was in FED QE period in their projected long time frame. This is an obvious ‘flaw’ in applying the wave principle. However, some E-wavers are "good narrators” (alchemies of eloquence), they 'write faster than you can talk', When you got a point, they digressed from the point by tossing a Red herring, an irrelevant topic, you can hardly get an upper hand in that kind biased 'forensic debate'.
Bubble needs speculative money to pump, this chart explains the logic nicely http://i0.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Cap-Flows.jpg?resize=584%2C345
chart from:
Socrates Progress Report
Posted on January 4, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/04/socrates-progress-report/
For the first time you will be able to watch our Capital Flow Analysis systems online. We are tracking the flow of money globally and this will enable you to see how the global trends are moving right before your eyes.
01/05/15 SPX
Near term Supports (as of 01/05/15)
route 1: (2093.55-2046.04)
2064.92 2047.21 2018.58 (0.618 critical)
route 2 : (2093.55-1820.66)
2029.15 1989.31 1924.90
trend reversal (archive ref ) confirmation point 1924.90
01/05/15 USD UUP
have mentioned UUP the other day, it moves ‘slow’, but it moves in the right direction.
middle term target 95-96 (approx.)
US Dollar Index - Mar 15 (DXH5)
day range: 91.56 - 92.05 in progress http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
the following call is transpired and closed
Thursday, 12/25/14 08:51:46 PM
Near term target
90.08-90.40 (Dec 23, 2014 90.41)
91.52-91.66
Entertainment: Who will be the true chess master?
Obama: Putin is no chess master
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/21/politics/obama-putin-outmaneuvering/
01/01/2015 The year that changes the world!
photos source: http://guancha.cn
GDL Congratulation!
>> Had a great winning streak over last 2 months.
01/02/15 SPX, intraday curve fitting
intraday low 2048.78 - in progress
so far SPX follows the golden spiral ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_spiral )
i don't know when it will make a detour.
.............
12/31/14 02:49:04 PM
Near term Supports SPX 2064.92 2047.21 2018.58
archive link
ahimsak: It is a time to throw darts
if you think USD will continue its appreciation into at least middle of 2015, then UUP, USDU is a good swing trades. of course, do your own DD first; Here is a pretty good summary about dollar, corp. buyback, valuation, Geoeconomics .. etc.
2015 Will Be The Year Of Dollar Danger For The World
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD, THE TELEGRAPH
JAN. 1, 2015, 8:49 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/2015-will-be-the-year-of-dollar-danger-for-the-world-2015-1#ixzz3NarmtZiv
One Sentence Says It All
All the pieces keep adding up into a very serious economic and geopolitical game changer for 2015
Gerald Celente
On December 28, 2014
http://usawatchdog.com/2015-forecast-manipulation-depression-and-war-gerald-celente/
12/31/14 SPX
ATH 2093.55 (12/29)
Near term Supports
SPX 2064.92 2047.21 2018.58
12/29/14
index stalls near the 50% point in between 2079.76 and 2104.27, mean 2092.02
12/19 capitulatory advance
the bounce-off from the low 1972.24 looks more like a capitulatory advance.
archive: link
Stephen Roach on Fed
Stephen Roach Takes the Fed to the Woodshed
Posted on December 26, 2014 by Yves Smith
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/stephen-roach-takes-the-fed-to-the-woodshed.html
The Fed is wedded to being overly solicitous about the markets it can see, and that perversely includes the stock market, which prior to Greenspan was never considered to be relevant to central bank policy. Just like a decade ago, the Fed’s drunk under the streetlight behavior has high odds of producing bad results.
ahimsak: I put an anchor post
so that I can make a clean reference later on. so far index stalls in the 50% in between 2079.76 and 2104.27, mean 2092.02 ( 2085.06-2100.20 mean 2092.63)
12/29/14: intraday - in progress
low 2085.75
high 2093.55
SPX:
2079.76 2104.27
2085.06 2100.20 (2115.20 2130.46 low odds for near term, remarked on 12/19)
http://www.chartupload.com/images/99280192870917928554.jpg
SPX/DJI outlook
Friday, 12/05/14 04:41:21 PM
i am ‘convinced’ the apex is around the corner (with + 1~2% overrun),
SPX 2079.76 (2100, 2130) , DJI 17975.13 (18062, 18484)
Here is the worst case number for both DJI & SPX in 2015. Timing will be discussed separately.
SPX 1577-1651 (approx. 20% off)
DJI 14263-14198
Too big to resist: Wall Street’s comeback
Too big to resist: Wall Street’s comeback
December 14, 2014
Edward Luce - Financial Times Columnists
There will be another crisis. No law can stop it, no regulator can foresee it
http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/1215fm-01.pdf
The bill included an unrelated item allowing banks to resume derivatives trading from their taxpayer-insured arms. That ban is now history.
gdl: Pokersam turns bullish
too many 'adjectives' in his frist paragraph.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109315517
regarding Greenspan
The Sociology of Max Weber
http://academic.udayton.edu/RichardGhere/POL%20307/weber.htm
Weber argued that men could no longer engage in socially significant action unless they joined a large-scale organization. In joining organizations they would have to sacrifice their personal desires and goals to the impersonal goals and procedures of the organization itself. By doing so, they would be cut off from a part of themselves, they would become alienated.
RUT & SPX in sync
>> Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM
>> It is interesting to see either RUT pulls down SPX
>> or SPX pulls up RUT,
anyway RUT & SPX is in sync again, both marks new ATH. no clue using divergence.
Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM
2014 divergence
RUT marked double peaks, (1212.82 03/04), (1213.55 07/01). There is an obvious divergence between RUT & SPX in between March and December. The head chasing tail game is much complicated than those in 2000 and 2007. Especially after October Low, It is interesting to see either RUT pulls down SPX or SPX pulls up RUT
Divergence in between SPX & RUT observed near 2007’s market Top.
DJI projection comparison
DJI intraday high 18103.45, in progress.
So far, both method gives good projection result. (after all, DJI is a 5-digits number.)
Wait for 'final' result.
(1) Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM
DJI http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485 (edit 25% increment between 17975 and 18485)
(2) Thursday, 12/25/14 09:09:18 PM
Zone 1 17975-18062
Zone 2 18062-18484
possible near term high target
18095 (0.236, 17975.13-18484.62) - 18277 (0.236, 18062.18-18974.10)
Saudi-Arabia Seen by Former Adviser Assuming $80 Oil
Saudi Arabia Seen by Former Adviser Assuming $80 Oil
By Wael Mahdi 2014-12-25T21:00:00Z
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/saudi-arabia-seen-by-former-adviser-assuming-80-oil.html
Alan Greenspan on QE (Full text)
a while ago, zerohedge posted a widely quoted commentary:
Alan Greenspan: QE Failed To Help The Economy, The Unwind Will Be Painful, "Buy Gold"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2014 23:42 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-29/alan-greenspan-qe-failed-help-economy-unwind-will-be-painful-buy-gold
Here is the full version in which Mr. Greenspan gave his views in plain English.
IMF Forum: Statistics for Policymaking-Identifying Macroeconomic and Financial Vulnerabilities (Nov. 18, 2014)
Alan Greenspan remarks as prepared
an excerpt:
Full text & many charts:
http://www.imf.org/external/NP/seminars/eng/2014/statsforum/pdf/greenspan.pdf
Quantitative Easing
The central banks’ set of quantitative easings (QEs) added 12 trillions of dollars to their balance sheet and, as a consequence of purchasing securities, drove interest rates on long-term securities to exceptionally low levels. Those long-term interest rates fostered increased price-earnings ratios on stocks and lowered capitalization rates on real estate. As I noted in The Map and the Territory, the large capital gains that emerged have been, as best I can judge, a major force in maintaining even the subdued levels of economic activity that have existed globally since the 2008 Lehman crash.
the three QE programs initiated by the Federal Reserve have had only modest direct impact on the lending activity that they support. In the American case, virtually all of the excess reserves engendered by the balance sheet expansions have laid dormant as reserve balances at Federal Reserve banks, which pay a competitive 25 basis points to attract those riskless balances. Given that very little in the way of capital requirements is required by the commercial banks on those deposits, there has been scarce willingness on the part of the banks to relend those deposits into the commercial markets to, for example, steel companies, retail establishments, consumers, and other borrowers. It is that process which, of course, creates the income multiplier and an expansion of economic activity. Very little such net lending has occurred as a result of any of the quantitative easing programs.
There is some evidence, however, that commercial and industrial loans in the United States broke out of their lethargy earlier this year and have undergone a marked increase. But, regrettably, not enough to increase aggregate borrowing throughout the U.S. economy and
galvanize economic activity.
Thus, QE has succeeded in part in engendering capital gains and the equity stimulus that
bolsters GDP. But it has done very little in the way of conventional monetary expansion that
finances economic activity. Finally, it should be noted that monetary policy operates in the context of broader economic long-term forces. Expansionary policies, or monetary stimulus, cannot engage real GDP unless it directly or indirectly affects potential productivity growth.
12/25/14 DJI targets
prior post
DJI enters the zone 18062-18484, detailed inter-pivots needs to be presented:
since route 1 (chart 1, 04/01) has a very good hit on prior high 17151.56 (09/03) (theoretical 17150.25, 1.382), therefore, DJI needs to break 18411 (= 0.382, 18062.18-18974.10) before speculating even higher numbers.
Zone 1 17975-18062
Zone 2 18062-18484
possible near term high target
18095 (0.236, 17975.13-18484.62) - 18277 (0.236, 18062.18-18974.10)
for fun, let's explore the numeric world:
18974.10 1.618 route 1
18896.41 1.500 route 2, chart 2 (09/13)
mean 18935
chart 1 17150.25 , 18062.18
http://forexrainbow.com/images/72900777363167492412.jpg
chart 2
http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
12/25/14 USD near term target
My membership don’t have the privilege to reply a private mail
Here is the projection for USD index
US Dollar Index - Mar 15 (DXH5) http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
Near term target
90.08-90.40 (Dec 23, 2014 90.41)
91.52-91.66
update numbers based on the chart i did on 02/16/14, (link to prior post)
The long term outlook
Quote of Eric Hadik’s work: “The Dollar could be decimated in 2015–2020/2021. BUT, there are pivotal landmarks expected – AND NEEDED – along the way!!!”
http://40yearcycle.com/dollar-decimation/
Do Your own DD, search for his update view.
12/24/14 USD/Gold/Stock market Eric Hadik interview
02/16/14 07:14:20 PM
link
USD chart.
from the following chart, the USD index since July/2011, imho, exhibits a clear a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c sequence.
The USD index is in an onset readiness position to commence its acceleration advance to complete the last 'c'.
The wave principle is somewhat in an impressionistic sense but it gives a rough guide.
12/19 capitulatory advance
at this writing, the bounce-off from the low 1972.24 looks more like a capitulatory advance.
near term:
resistance
Zone 1
2065, 2070 (important), 2080, 2085.
Zone 2
2100, (2115, 2130, Low odds)
supports
2054, 2131-2020 (important)
middle term
lower rails
1950
1905-1911 (important)
1811-1847
>> Dow 18,929 is Ackerman's target now
smokenmirrors
Thank You for sharing
DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17357)
Rick Ackerman
ECEMBER 18, 2014 4:42 AM GMT
http://www.rickackerman.com/author/rickackerman/
if I use that low to project a long-term Hidden Pivot rally target, I come up with 18,929 — about 9% above current levels.
EDIT:(14198 -1739) + 6470 = 18929
chart: http://www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/DJIA-target-that-bulls-AND-bears-can-shoot-for.jpg
FWIW: 2015 is when the REAL fireworks are-expected-to-begin!
FYI - Free info from Eric Hadik
DO YOUR OWN DD
(EDIT: in particular: read the cycle chart in page 2)
Mar. 2014 EXCERPT ONLY Outlook 2014...
link
The ultimate blow could be seen during the latest phase of the uncanny, 40-Year Cycle… in 2013–2016/2017 (and into 2021). Readers should make sure to properly understand this since the Dollar is actually forecast to see a rebound in 2014–2015 before entering a terminal decline after that.
2013–2015 is expected to see upward movement in the price of the US Dollar, even as a corresponding currency like the Euro is projected to drop sharply (particularly after May 2014 – when multiple cycles, including a unique, 3-year cycle between highs – converge and turn back down) – on its way to its ultimate downside price target (published in 2011). During this period, Gold & Silver could see more volatility with cycle lows in late-2013 and mid-2015 and cycle highs in 3Q 2014.
2015 is when the REAL fireworks are expected to begin! (EDIT: April/2015 ?)
Eric Hadik – We Are at The End of a 40 Year Cycle
Oct 29, 2014
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2014/10/eric-hadik-were-at-the-end-of-a-40-year-cycle/
>> lengthy scripts slow down the thread (fixed)
My browsing efforts told me the hangs and slow responce are real complains among Chrome, Opera, FireFox users after their many software installations and Updates.
Some said the problem comes from an out of dated Adobe Flash Player, memory size ...... etc.
I disabled the JavaScript and fixed the problem, many die-hard (Anti Pop-up blocker) 'intelligent' Pop-Up windows disappeared too.
12/18/14 SPX
gap into zone 2038.51-2048.05
intraday high 2046.53, in progess
pivot 2130.46 (2031)
synopsis:
- the first attempt on resistance 2019 failed on 12/15 (intraday high 2018.69)
- made a successful test on 1974.78 on 12/16 (actual 1972.56)
- gap over resistance 2019 & 2031
- for bullish scenario, SPX needs to hold 2031.
- neutral zone 1994-2019
Sunday, 12/14/14 02:39:46 PM
resistance: 2019, 2031, 2049
GDL . . . . . . .
Thank You,
i read your posts in a very positive way. especially those you did with Pokersame. i am a technician, neither bullish nor bearish. very flexible.
Cheer!
12/18/14 Gap Up
missed an opportunity, Arrrgh.
scrap the Buy plan
wait for new opportunity
---------------------------
Wednesday, 12/17/14 03:07:49 PM
SPX level to enter long
- the safer point to enter long is 2013.20.
- prefer higher than 2016.89
12/17/14 After close
SPX (cash) closed near a dangling point, still looks unsettling at this writing. Intraday high was 2016.75, just a hair line to the preferred Buy entry 2016.89.
This is a reminder that:
- 1994-2019 is the old battle zone back to late August
- bearish wave scenario has a target 1961.54 -1951.66-1940.45
- major support 1904.78 +/-
- supports see chart: http://www.chartupload.com/images/66935499426303984992.jpg
archive:
12/17/14 03:07:49 PM
imho:
- the safer point to enter long is 2013.20.(0.382 1972.24-2079.47)
- prefer higher than 2016.89
- looks unsettling at this moment.
Monday, 12/15/14 02:15:28 PM
- 1994-2019 is the old battle zone back to late August
Sunday, 12/14/14 02:39:46 PM
major support 1904.78 +/- (08/07 intraday low)
http://www.chartupload.com/images/66935499426303984992.jpg