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WEF = World Economic Forum.
Klaus Schwab and all these billionaire people pushing for The Great Reset and ESG and you lowly human beings are the problem driving in your cars, but they fly in their private jets as they talk against fossil fuels and in favor of "sustainable" energy (which is a grift via govt subsidies that they benefit financially from). Schwab openly talks about his group having infiltrated govts. So you essentially have elected representatives in countries who are not representing their citizens, but representing an outside organization. Trudeau in Canada is one of his biggest acolytes:
Klaus Schwab in his own words:
https://twitter.com/dessere88/status/1497914997497810945
Essentially, these people are socialists and de-populationists. They're against ALL energy. Very similar to a movement that happened in the 1970s. Anybody old enough remembers that windmills and solar were all the rage back then too. Right along with Paul Ehrlich and his book, The Population Bomb. The big movement of the time was ZPG (Zero Population Growth). It's the same thing all over again. If you want to go even further back, this is a 224 year old economic myth started by Thomas Malthus, an Anglican cleric and economist of the day, in 1798. He first posited that population would grow faster than food production and thus we'd all starve. This came to be known as a Malthusian Collapse. Thus population growth had to stop! Of course it never happened. In the '70s it morphed into a group called The Club of Rome and they published a book called The Limits To Growth. Then it morphed into the New World Order. This movement literally makes a resurgence about every 50 years or so
It's no surprise that the Dutch govt is also pushing for bans on fertilizer and farmers, becuase PM Rutte is also a follower:
https://forumfordemocracy.com/article/dutch-prime-minister-caught-lying-about-connections-klaus-schwab
Oh I'm definitely not claiming it would make any sense. Ha! These elitist blowhards just tend to think they have all the answers to everything.
Even in the US it's a total joke that this gal named Jennifer Granholm is Secty of Energy and has zero energy experience. Yet she has all the answers.
All Energy Tumbling Again
Tough to figure out what the truth is. Energy should be booming. Winter right around the corner. Even EU natgas prices tumbling:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Did the speculation all ready happen and it's not going to be as bad as expected? Or will govts step in a cap prices, or nationalize energy? Will energy co's in Europe go bankrupt if people refuse to pay? Was it all overblown? Or is this just a small down-turn in a longer bull market?
I really don't have any idea what the heck is gonna happen. But it certainly isn't looking as easy-peasy as it looked at one point. A few more dollars down and oil will be trading in the $70s
Yep, Europe could be in real trouble with cascading defaults coming throughout the financial system. Of course, it's always tough to know how much of this media stuff you can believe, but it certainly doesn't look good.
Perhaps the biggest thing that has to have one scratching one's head is everyone knows that winter is coming, this is not a surprise, and yet oil and natgas continue to decline. Lots of predictions of $200-$300 oil, but with winter coming shortly, both continue to fall in price. Those prices could still happen, I don't know, but who knows how much of the runup was speculation, false narrative, bogus new stories, etc, and how much is real. Seems like the markets are predicting massive demand destruction.
Since most of them are infiltrated with WEF lackeys, I could foresee European govts nationalizing all energy companies if things got really bad. And they seem to be getting bad by design.
We'll see what happens.
That is indeed odd. Looks like a few new Asks have come in at lower prices. I have no idea why those buys
Gaming European Power Prices
This thread seems to be another good example of how one never knows how different markets work, in different localities, with different rules to favor certain players, ways to game the system, etc. I don't claim to have any local knowledge of European markets, but if this is anywhere close to the truth, seems like the market would be very easy to game:
The European Power Market can be reformed by a child.
— Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦 (@agnostoxxx) August 30, 2022
I will explain.
First of all, lets be clear. European consumer is fked (>20% of salary on electricity?!). Basic industry is fked. The economy is fked.
Fked does not mean Apocalypse IF they take action.
1/n
"Market" Prices
With any market, including natgas in Europe, it's always tough to know how much of the current market price is legitimate vs speculation, how much is narrative, how much is fear (usually being pushed by people trying to front-run the market), how much is manipulation in a centralized market that is usually run by one or two big players (remember Enron manipulating prices in Calif), who has conflicts of interest, etc.
Forward prices of German electricity just halved in 2 days:
German 1y ahead Power Price has almost halved within 2 days from €1,050 per MWh to €545 today. This raises the question of who is operating in the electricity market. Is it pure speculation? Are these meaningful prices that reflect real scarcities? pic.twitter.com/1OyzB6uVZR
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 31, 2022
IDW I don't follow it super closely, but keeping an eye on it. Second quarter was expected to be down because there would not be any licensing income from the entertainment division. First quarter was .15 earnings.
They basically switched to a much less risky business model (at least in theory) From memory, they used to be trying to do everything themselves. They'd publish a comic or graphic novel, if something caught on and got hot they'd try and produce a show or movie themselves. Got deeply into debt. Now they've switched to more of a numbers game rather than bet everything on one big winner (and maybe lose big)
Outgoing CEO Ezra recently made two divisions: publishing and entertainment. Typical marketing funnel. The publishing side gets 500-1000 submissions from authors for new comics, graphic novels, etc. Out of this, they might publish 30 or 40 titles. The idea is for this business to roughly break even.
Of those titles that get published, maybe 4 or 5 gain enough popularity to make a TV series. This is the entertainment division. This is where most of the profit is made. They don't try to do it themselves, they license to a studio and take a licensing fee for overseeing the production regarding storyline, etc. Then out of those 4 or 5 maybe one becomes a movie and big fees as well.
This whole change only happened maybe last year and a half, I forget. It was expected to take a little time and be a little lumpy, plus some of the old deals were tailing off. But things seemed on track and Ezra was focused on profitability. I don't know if the approach will ultimately work, but it seemed logical. Now he's gone without much explanation.
IDW Anyone following this? A turnaround story and I liked the CEO, Ezra, and yesterday afternoon he got replaced with not much explanation. Seemed to be making good progress, many good deals, and an eye on the bottom line. Now he's gone.
Kind of worried about Howard Jonas's meddling.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/idw-media-announces-leader-next-203000396.html
Freeport Re-Start Pushed Back a Month
Well, now I'm kind of going back to my initial thoughts that we could have delay after delay on the re-start. Bottom line is I'll believe it only AFTER it actually happens. Just weeks ago the company said early October re-start. Now they say they ANTICIPATE a November re-start, but there could be construction delays, etc.:
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9749&intAcc_ID=77
No idea what's going to happen here
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that they are looking to do a good-sized acquisition. That's sort of how it sounded to me in the earnings call. They have all these tax losses available to be used, so they were kind of mulling their option of buybacks vs acquisition to use the tax losses. It sounded to me like they were leaning toward acquiring something. Then they filed the shelf. I'm guessing they're looking at buying something more expensive than the cash currently have (approx 200m).
Who knows, we'll see.
Again, I just want to be clear that I don't consider myself an expert in all these registrations, filings, etc.
Having said that, yes, I believe that's basically the SEC saying that the S-3 has now been "approved". Those various company names are all SD subsidiaries that were named in the S-3. I believe this is a normal way of doing it, so that it's all-inclusive if you want to do a transaction involving one of your subsidiary companies.
I believe the shelf registration is now effective for 3 years. Seems like I remember a time or circumstances when it was two years, but I believe it's now 3.
Freeport LNG situation
I hadn't checked on the status of Freeport in a while, but there are two interesting things that have occurred.
1) Contrary to what I was guessing, it looks like they have already reached a consent degree with the govt that will allow them to get back to near full operations EARLIER than expected. The reason? The story has changed to where it has now been determined that it was human error and not a faulty piece of equipment that caused the explosion. That led to . . . .
2) Force Majeure was apparently retracted in late June, something that went previously unreported. This may have added to the buying pressure for natgas in the futures market.
https://gcaptain.com/freeport-lng-set-to-restore-production-at-key-lng-export-facility-in-october-earlier-than-anticipated/
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Freeport-LNG-Retracts-Force-Majeure-Leaving-Buyers-On-The-Hook-For-8-Billion-I.html
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9748&intAcc_ID=77
Re Possible Closure of Cheniere LNG by EPA.
Listened to the latest earnings call for Cheniere and the CEO said he still thinks their equipment should be exempt. Says they're working with EPA and giving input. He said that even if they are not deemed to be in compliance he thinks they should be able to come up with a workable solution that won't have a material impact on their earnings or production.
-So that's sounding better. Maybe he's just overconfident, we'll see. But if anything, for legal reason CEOs are usually very cautious on calls, so he must think the EPA is coming around. This would be good news cuz it could crush natgas prices here in the US if Cheniere closed. Much bigger than Freeport.
If anyone wants to listen to that section for yourself, you can forward to 12:23 in the earnings call here and the EPA portion runs about 2 minutes:
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1559360&tp_key=4ac7ac2c5a
Single stock Tesla and Apple ETFs
Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but noticed some new tickers showing on the new high list. Turns out, Direxion now has a single stock ETF for both Tesla and Apple. Can go 1.5x long or 1x short on either stock. Not sure what that says about the market, but it's a way to go short or use leverage in an IRA:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/direxion-launches-first-apple-and-tesla-single-stock-leveraged-and-inverse-etf-pairs-301601800.html
Oops, made an error. PRPH Q2 was .40 diluted, .48 undiluted. So TTM is 1.50
PRPH (11.90) Excellent 2nd quarter. Made .48 vs (.09) last year. This was without govt reimbursement for testing. TTM earnings now $1.58
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/prophase-labs-PRPH/stock-news/88815548/prophase-labs-announces-record-second-quarter-2022
HKD also down almost 50% today. High of this craziness was over $2,500, now it's at $212 and almost certainly headed to below $5
Sold! haha. Sounds like that would be in the price range of the offering. You might have found it.
Another thought is a private company on nearby land where SD can further maximize their existing staff and infrastructure.
But frankly, I have no idea. I just hope that if they raise a bunch of money, the use it sensibly. They seem level-headed in earnings calls.
Half a billion is a lot of money. Fingers crossed that it gets put to good use
ETCC - Yeah, congrats on the move it's made. I'm not familiar with this company. Is it a company you think is turning the corner? Like hweb said, my quick glance at it looks like they've struggled with profitability. But if you think there's more to the story, I'd love to hear it.
Expensive Document
With whatever the company might be planning in filing the shelf registration, I was wondering how serious they are about doing something? Roughly, what is the total cost of filing an S-3? You can usually get a pretty good idea of seriousness by the amount of money willing to be spent.
The SEC filing fees alone are $46,350. Then, I have a buddy who's been general counsel to a couple of public companies. I asked him if a shelf registration is something you can usually handle in-house or would there be additional legal fees to hire an outside firm to help? If outside firm, is that like an additional $20-$30K, or how much? He said usually an outside firm is required becuz lots of reading and editing, have to make sure definitions and phrases are stated exactly correct, and match exactly with all previous documents, etc., tons of stuff the SEC requires. He said the tab would be more like $200k to $500k. I was floored. I said even if it never gets used, it might might be $250-$500k just to prepare and file that document? Yep.
So SD must be pretty serious about intending to use this offering. What for, I don't know, but that's likely a darned expensive document.
Ha, I like your thinking!
I don't claim to have much expertise in this area, but I think that's just a "catch-all" type of thing for "we're not selling these securities right now, but might at some point in the future" and then I think the shelf registration is good for a couple years or something
It's almost like a double-negative type of thing where I guess it can be read different ways. But I read it as "if it's gonna be delayed, then check this box -- the one reason to NOT check this box is if it's for a dividend reinvestment plan"
From listening to the call, my guess would be that the shelf is to have it available if needed when buying another company
SRTS had a good quarter. .21 vs (.02) last year:
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/sensus-healthcare-SRTS/stock-news/88762965/sensus-healthcare-second-quarter-2022-financial-re
Earnings call sounded positive.
Don't know if he'll prove to be correct on the market or not, but I think this thread is worth reading:
The first countertrend rally in The Bear always take us to a max stupid point. It becomes an echo of the prior top.
— Paulo Macro (@PauloMacro) August 4, 2022
Cloudbear calls this the All Clear Echo. 🧵
Spoiler - This is why you are seeing HKD happen 18mths after GME/Spac madness.
1/15
Listened to the call, and my reading between the lines is that they are leaning toward wanting to do an acquisition to take full advantage of their NOLs
Looks like about $5.50 per share cash. PR made no mention of buyback or dividend. I'd think you could do a one-time dividend of $2 or $2.50 and still have plenty of cash for operations and a safety buffer. Or even just $1 -- something.
Will be interesting earnings call becuz I'm sure they'll be asked. Maybe they'll say they're considering an acquisition or something like that, who knows.
I'm all for companies being conservative and not operating on debt, etc. But I also recall a quote from Peter Lynch's book. I believe he was quoting Hugh Liedtke of Pennzoil who said he believed in the "bladder theory" of corporate finance: the more cash that builds up in the company bank account, the greater the pressure to piss it all away.
Yeah, lots of companies are definitely opting to return money to their owners rather than putting more money in the ground, because they know the world's radical govts are totally hostile towards fossil fuels at the moment. When govts are saying your industry is going to be shut down in 10 years, what responsible CEO wants to make a long term investment in business infrastructure when that is the mindset?
lakes, very sorry to hear the news of your wife's passing. hang in there. That's no fun.
Yeah, could be sell on the news, but personally I'd guess it has more to do with the EIA numbers that came out.
As far as earnings go, there is still hope of a special dividend or a buyback being announced. If that happened, it might give a 10-20% boost to the stock. Funny thing is, I think it would have had the same percentage boost if we were trading at $35 and the future was looking bright. So in the heyday, maybe a one-day boost of $7, whereas now I'd guess a max of $3 boost.
And there's obviously no guarantee that a div or buyback will be announced.
Sheesh, struggling to stay above the 16's. I think demand destruction occurred faster than most thought it would. Brought about by a serious rise in the price of everything, we may just be at the point were there's gonna be a reduced demand for everything as people just can't afford it or choose not to buy stuff. Maybe we witnessed the top in energy without realizing it, or without many foreseeing it. Supply may be steady or declining, but for the time being demand seems to be falling even faster.
There you go! Or maybe HKD should jump into the bidding for Twitter with a stock swap buyout offer
HKD - I remembered those two other crazy tickers. ORGO and PHUN were the two others that went crazy right out of the gate. PHUN ran to over $500 and ORGO over $200, and those were the craziest ones I'd ever seen before HKD.
But HKD blows away anything I've ever seen
HKD The amount of money being stolen here is amazing. I'd guess many of these are wash trades to drive the price up, but still there's gotta be huge losses coming for some newbies. In contrast, one of the stocks the SEC halted today on the daily list was VBVT. It went from .10 to about .75 on 12k shares, so we're talking about $10k in total activity.
Maybe the SEC should spend more time focusing on the big-dollar heists. Such wonderful judgment in how to "protect the public."
Oh you mean THAT Alexis Ren! Yeah I've never heard of her either. ha
Quite a few SPAC plays starting to run in the last few days. Maybe some interest is returning to SPACs. It's been doldrums for awhile.
A Tale of Two Stocks
No telling what causes certain stocks to move in certain ways. A lot of it is just luck. I've linked to the post from 15 days ago where I speculated that we were bottoming. Just the opposite of a blowhard post, this shows how it's just trying to play the probabilities.
I bought two stocks that day: SD and SBOW. SBOW is also unhedged, but leveraged.
Bought SBOW at $27.64 and it went almost straight up for like 6 days so I sold at 36.75, because it seemed like it had run way too far way too fast (it's now at $46. Oops! lol)
Bought SD at $15.01 and actually thought it had the better chance to be a runner -- unleveraged, lots of cash (will probably have almost $5 per share after earnings and maybe they will announce a dividend or buyback or something). It's struggling to hold $19
SBOW up about 66%, SD less than 26%. I have no idea why the huge difference. Anybody can come up with a reason after the fact (when you know the answer), but it's almost impossible to know in advance. Luck is always a big factor. Hopefully it suggests that SD could still run quite a bit. But just look at the difference in the steepness of these two charts:
SBOW: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=sbow&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
SD: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SD&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p64293747708