Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Type Xeno Holdings into Google and it's easy to see this is not the same company.
"Xeno Holdings is a privately held, Hong Kong based, investment company that manages through investment in private equities, venture capital opportunities and real estate, with the goal of effectively growing wealth and creating new value."
https://www.xenoholdings.net/
https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/22/07/28062373/xeno-holdings-announces-partnership-with-rakuten-sports
Impressed again with the way energy stocks are holding up in light of pretty darn bad news. Feeling more confident that we have bottomed. But that's just a guess and could easily be wrong. If we're headed for a massive, serious recession, it's worth remembering that in 2008, oil went down from $140 to $40 in about six months, and natgas went from $13.35 to under $3. They didn't ring a bell at the top then either, so who knows.
But in retrospect, it all kind of makes sense to me. (That doesn't mean any of what I'm about to say is correct, but just this is what makes sense to me.) Govts around the globe in a complete act of stupidity abandoned free markets and individual rights and did something never tried before: shut everything down (as if it can just be restarted with the flip of a switch), lock people in their houses, and started printing up money (inflation) to give to people. Oil and gas stocks started moving up, knowing that big price increases and earnings were coming. This went on for a while. Then a little over a month ago, the markets in oil and gas stocks started moving down in anticipation of a recession/slowdown/depression, take your pick. The market is forward looking and was saying that Interest rate increases and demand destruction will ultimately kick in at some point.
But again because markets are forward-looking, they know that prices of energy and nearly all commodities have come down a lot now, so the next CPI number will likely not be as bad, and thus interest rates increases may be nearing an end, and a certain amount of additional demand comes back from all prices declining. So it seems like the market action of energy stocks is saying we are bottoming. But my guess would be that we'll be range-bound for a while. If prices start rocketing back up, then we run into the same problems, so I think we sort of bounce around for awhile.
If the govt doesn't shut down LNG facilities, it seems like natgas has the high-priced European markets to sell to, so hopefully natgas could decline less than oil. But even there, Germany in particular is now returning to burning wood and coal because of stupid govt allegiance to a nonsense green agenda, so there will be some demand destruction there as well as the natgas prices are insane. Germany (who is in its mess for trying to rely on wind and solar) might have a Depression-level event, who knows.
Hopefully not as bad in the US, but anything's possible, as we've just witnessed.
Impressed by the way energy stocks reacted to the inflation news today. Feeling more comfortable that 14 was the low for SD, or pretty close to it. I'd be really surprised if we just rocketed back up though. My guess is that if we start going back up again, it will be a slow ascent.
First thing, gotta break the highs of 16.67 from a few days ago.
The "experts" keep predicting sky high oil and natgas prices, but the markets keep telling a different story. Energy stocks seem to lead the way down, then the commodity prices follow.
I still find the Freeport shutdown for such an extended period of time to be very suspicious. Basically, a single valve went bad. Replace it, and get things started again. But instead, the govt is insisting on a bunch of other bureaucratic things be done. Bury them in bureaucracy.
Gotta wonder if this isn't being done for political reasons, where the govt picks winners and losers to make up for their failed energy policy. The administration and those in the EPA are basically all socialist and wokesters, so they believe the govt owns the means of production and they see nothing wrong with this. They are not capitalists and they don't believe in free markets, so if companies go bankrupt, who cares?
Preventing LNG exports would keep natgas prices low here in the U.S. and bankrupt LNG facilities.
They may be trying to close down Cheniere's LNG facility too. If this happens, this could send natgas prices plummeting here in the U.S. The administration would get to claim they "solved" the problem of higher electricity prices. Plus, they're saving the environment! :
https://gaatimes.com/exclusive-top-u-s-lng-producer-cheniere-asks-biden-admin-to-drop-pollution-rule/
Nice! Congrats. Yeah, it's always a joy when a seeming throwaway turns into something. Feels like you're just walking down the street and you notice $3,500 sitting there in the storm drain
The markets feel so rigged these days, almost makes you wonder if someone knew this was coming:
https://menafn.com/1104489837/2-Dead-3-Injured-In-Explosion-At-Kazakhstans-Largest-Oil-Field
It's amazing how unusual it feels to get just a one-day rally lol. I mean, the share price is only two dollars off the low of the collapse, but it just seems so foreign to see ANY move up. This ties SD's biggest rally of the collapse.
I've personally never seen anything like it. Every coal, gas, oil stock just absolutely pummelled in such a short period of time. Was it just groupthink, or did a fund blow up and it's now over, or is it the hot money crowd leaving abruptly? Or might we turn right around and start heading back down in a few days? Beats me.
There's an odd color appearing on my screen today. Not sure what to make of it. Very confusing. :)
Could it be we actually have an up day? I thought those had been outlawed.
You're just flat-out wrong and starting to sound blow-hardy. Like you're the expert who knows all. A little humility goes a long way.
One of the largest single day drops in the national average in some time. Down over 3c/gal today. When you consider that it’s # an average of 150,000 stations, it’s very meaningful. pic.twitter.com/ulOCqIIcj8
— Patrick De Haan ⛽️📊 (@GasBuddyGuy) July 7, 2022
Yeah, the warrants are a much longer shot than they seemed to be just a few short weeks ago. Like you say, none of the facts about the company have really changed.
But I certainly didn't expect energy investors to rush for the exits on recession fears in the way they have (if that's in fact what caused the steep decline in energy stocks, and I don't even claim to know that! ha) The charts tell me the price has gone down, that's about all I claim to know
I mean, the entire energy sector has darn near tanked further and faster than a lot of the tech stocks. Definitely caught me by surprise. And barely a blip up along the way. Almost straight down. We went from $30 to $14 with only one blip up of $2 (from 16 to 18).
Don't know if it's true, but I read somewhere that this is the steepest decline in the shortest time frame in the history of energy stocks. Wouldn't shock me if it's true. And of course it had to happen right when our little warrants had a chance to come into full bloom! Ugh.
Now you're just changing the argument. I think you're convincing yourself you're Nostradamus when you're not. Gasoline is $4.18 where I am, down from $4.48 a few weeks ago.
Nobody knows, with any certainty, where the price is going.
Gasoline prices have already come down about 30 cents where I am
Turnaround Day? Maybe? Hopefully?
SD and many others went down and touched their long term trendline and held it. Granted it's only one day, but one can dream! lol
Yeah, and just goes to show how "the experts" don't really know anything either. They were all predicting higher prices. They're all guessing, just like us. Same for hedge funds:
Hedge funds showed no sign of preparing for a sharp fall in oil prices before this week's sell-off - with the number of short positions close to multi-year lows: pic.twitter.com/c2OlrjofSG
— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) July 6, 2022
It's just day after day and doesn't stop.This isn't really a pullback anymore, this is more like a full-blown bear market in energy. Nearly every energy stock down 10% AGAIN.
Somewhere around 14 was the bullish trendline for SD, if that breaks, sheesh, who knows where it goes
Another day, another chance for energy stocks to be down 10%. Seems like the markets are forecasting a big slowdown coming. Either that, or some massive investment fund is imploding and having to liquidate everything.
If it's the latter, we could move up sharply when the liquidation is done. If it's the former, probably much much slower recovery
Definitely haven't heard much from him in a while
EGY Yeah, just writing puts on some of them looks attractive too. those same months and strikes on EGY the puts look decent as well. thx
EGY What month and strike price are you writing?
Maybe the whole shebang is rolling over, who knows:
U.S. RAIL TRAFFIC is down -3.5% in the first half of 2022 compared with 2021 (including -6.3% decline in containerised traffic) as the economy loses momentum: pic.twitter.com/8y1Nx58sS4
— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) June 30, 2022
Ugh. The tone of the regulators re Freeport makes it sound like this might be a very drawn out process:
"The regulator ordered the company to submit within 60 days a plan for an outside investigator to provide a report on the extent of the damage to the facility. Freeport must also hire a third-party to review the state of its LNG storage tanks.
Only after the reviews are completed can the company submit a plan to repair the damage, it said, further complicating the company's plan for a partial restart."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-regulator-finds-unsafe-155955219.html
Yeah, anything's possible, and I really do think that all of energy might be getting near a turnaround. SD didn't have as big a bounce as some others from the low a week ago. Most other energy stocks bounced more from the week ago lows and are just now approaching their lows (on lighter volume), so my wild guess is energy is trying to find a bottom here. But after such a swift and ruthless collapse of the entire sector, my guess would be that it takes a while to bottom. Plus, the market is forward looking, so for the next couple of months we might see natgas prices continue lower as domestic inventories build and knowing that the Freeport facility isn't even planned on re-opening until late in the year. Maybe a few months from now natgas prices might start to rise again in anticipation of the facility re-opening.
Who knows, but my guess is it's gonna be tougher sledding for the warrants than for the stock. The stock doesn't have a deadline on it.
But if the market as a whole continues to take a dive, SD will probably head down with it.
Yeah, I'd say that's a pretty good summary. Heck if we dip down to hit the long-term bullish trendline at around $14, then that means SD would darn near have to triple in 3 months for the warrants to be in the money. Possible I suppose, but way slimmer chances than it seemed just a few weeks ago.
It is what it is.
I kind of thought yesterday might have been a turning point because we tested the old lows on MUCH lighter volume. I don't do much of the technical charting voodoo, but in my own experience, testing old highs or lows on lighter volume can sometimes lead to a turnaround.
Who knows, maybe the price is illogical, or maybe it's perfectly logical. Maybe there's an economic slowdown coming that is of a magnitude we've never seen -- depression level stuff. On the other hand maybe it's just some ESG do-gooder fund has decided they're going to save the earth from their air-conditioned highrise and to do so they needed to sell all their energy stocks by the end of Q2 because they're heroes! Ha. Or maybe some of the big funds have early info that the war is about to end. Or maybe some of the big funds friendly to the govt (and I hope what I'm about to type is sarcasm) have been tipped off that the govt is going to attempt to nationalize the entire energy sector, thus those funds are willing to sell at ANY price to get their money out.
No way to know. Even if my guesses about energy are correct (they may not be), Ben Graham's line of "in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it's a weighing machine" comes to mind. At the moment, the votes are against us for some reason. I certainly wouldn't have guessed 3 weeks ago that one would have made a killing buying short term Puts on SD.
Up 100% in a month, down 50% in 3 weeks. Darned near back to where things started. Lots of the O&G stocks look the same way.
Baroootal!
Change of auditors doesn't thrill me. Moving from a top tier firm and one of the big 4 (Deloitte) to much smaller firm (Moss Adams). If anything, during the lean years I could understand going with a lesser firm, but now should be the time to step up to a top tier auditor. Instead, the company is going in the opposite direction.
It's concerning and doesn't make sense to me.
SD actually holding up better than some others. I've got some that are down 15% today. Crazy brutal.
Man, brutal energy selloff continues. I doubt it's short selling, as nearly every oil, gas, or coal stock is down 30-40% in just a couple of weeks. But that's how it is with energy stocks, crazy volatility.
2nd gap now filled when SD traded below 18.06. Crazy fast turn of events. Another brutal day for all energy
Cramer now saying energy is going to come down. We'll see if he remains an excellent contrary indicator
Deeep Pullback for all energy. Should have known when Cramer said to buy energy.
All of a sudden the SD warrants need more than a double. Things can change very quickly
Yep, Freeport being down is a slight damper on prices here, but sends prices up in Europe.
Worrisome that the govt is complaining to refiners (I guess complaining is an official policy now?). Seems like a pre-cursor move to me where they'll come back and say "we asked nicely, and if the refiners aren't going to do the right thing then here comes a tax or some price control. We have to do it for the American people!" blah, blah, blah. They'll never change their policy, just blame others.
Energy secty has never worked in energy in her life. The govt's entire energy policy is just complete fantasy. It's not even possible.
Natgas back up to $8 this morning. Sounds like hot temps helping to keep the price up.
Would be great if they can, but I don't know how easy that is to do. I think pipeline capacities were pretty maxed out already, but maybe they can.
If you haven't come across it, scroll down at this link and there's a 38-second video of the actual explosion:
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/freeport-lng-says-post-explosion-restart-unlikely-until-late-2022-natural-gas-futures-plunge/
Investing in energy stocks will definitely test your faith.
Dang it. Now Freeport LNG, the company itself, is saying:
"At this time, completion of all necessary repairs and a return to full plant operations is not expected until late 2022. Given the relatively contained area of the facility physically impacted by the incident, a resumption of partial operations is targeted to be achieved in approximately 90 days, once the safety and security of doing so can be assured, and all regulatory clearances are obtained."
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/freeport-lng-provides-update-on-june-8-incident-at-its-liquefaction-site-301567658.html
Ugh. Natgas down $1.50 this morning. Now more talk that the duration of the Freeport closure is unknown. That's one thing I didn't like about the original press release is they said "at least three weeks."
Two gaps in the chart. Hope it doesn't get there, but one is below 21.78, and the other is below 18.06. If you put SD on a 3-year chart, you can really tell how steep the climb has been lately. You could draw a trend line across the bottom and come out around 14 and still not break the bullish uptrend. So who knows where it goes.
I also went back and looked at several energy charts over the weekend, and most were about like SD -- more or less treading water for about a month until about May 25 which is when the market as a whole started its relief rally. That's when SD really took off and moved from 20 to 30.
So to a certain degree, SD still at the whims of the market. Almost my entire screen is red this morning, except of course for my teeny-tiny positions. Some of those are up lol.
Yeah and today looks like a very tough day, might be the beginning of a new longer downtrend even for energy stocks, who knows.