[jtomm]

Re natgas, kind of dubious that Freeport says they've completed all their work and submitted an application to begin some procedures that will lead to re-start. They want the Feds to respond in one day. Sounds laughable, but I have no idea how long such a response normally takes. Freeport hasn't had the best relationship with the Feds thus far. Unless the Feds have already approved everything and this is just a formality, this feels like Freeport is trying to pressure the Feds. We'll see how it goes:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-says-completed-repairs-183638290.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-freeport-lng-says-completed-192547879.html

[goforthebet]

gm

I have no pm possibility anymore. I asked a friend to send you my email address via pm, but he obviously did not do it. I don´t want to put it in here so that anybody can read it. I will try to send it to you on friday during happy hour. here is my friends ihub profil.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profilea.aspx?user=60294

send him a message pls that I sent him an elamil 1 week agaio to send you my email address. If you tell him my first name he will have a look. thanks so much.

the otherstock did already move. I did not see your pm before today. what a pity.

cheers,

[jtomm]

NG (briefly?) breaks into the 3's.

https://twitter.com/CelsiusEnergyFM/status/1610300128522375168

[jtomm]

Re Freeport - Feds came back with long list of demands before they can open:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-regulator-issues-new-list-demands-freeport-lng-restart-2022-12-13/

[jtomm]

NG - Reuters now reporting that Freeport LNG facility restart has been pushed back yet again to "around year end."

Again, this doesn't pass the smell test. Next year seems far more likely. This is like the 4th or 5th time they've pushed back the restart.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-expects-restart-texas-161545252.html

[creede]

It's unreal.

To be honest, everything in my port is way red. Bear market from hell.

[jtomm]

Freeport now says targeting mid-December. Sounds doubtful especially when they just submitted their proposed remedial paperwork to the Feds. So they're gonna get approval from the feds on a super short timeline, then get the work done in just a couple of weeks, with Thanksgiving holiday in between? Sounds very dubious to me:

http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9753&intAcc_ID=77

creede, the real irony is that LMB has done better than my oil and gas stocks. lol

[jtomm]

Starting to feel like energy is struggling to move higher.

I'm not big into all the voodoo charting, but gaps getting filled is something the I've noticed over the years does tend to happen, for whatever reason. A lot of the energy indices have gaps quite a bit below where we are now, plus we've come a long way pretty quickly.

XLE currently around 90 has a gap at 74.48:

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xle&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171

FENY currently around 25 has a gap at 20.55:

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=feny&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171

PSCE currently around 11 has a gap at 8.88

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=psce&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171

We'll see what happens. (Now watch energy markets blast higher! lol)

[jtomm]

Freeport just yesterday 11/15 came out with its root cause report on the accident. No timeline for restart. I believe the Feds still have to review the report and plan and they may have additional recommendations.

All of this during the holidays.

Looking more like next year before restart:

http://www.newsrouter.com/NewsRouter_Uploads/77/Freeport%20LNG%20Provides%20Summary%20of%20Root%20Cause%20Failure%20Analysis%20Report%20on%20June%208%20Incident.pdf

[creede]

Wow

[jtomm]

Freeport Restart Likely Delayed to January

Color me not surprised:

https://www.energyintel.com/00000184-688f-d8b5-ab9f-ef8f4ffd0001

[STOCKPICKER4LIFE]

SD is looking really good today. I hope it gets back to $25.

[creede]

So far so good.

I heard a tough winter could result in a lot of deaths.

[jtomm]

Germany getting awfully lucky (thankfully) with warmest October temps in 140 yrs:

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1586239017095376896

[creede]

How crazy

[jtomm]

Europe natgas prices actually went negative for a short time this morning. lol. Storage is full and warmer than usual weather:

https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1584518813902831616

[creede]

Man oh man.

Mission Mayhem is going as planned

[bigbux1]

We might be focusing on this event for several weeks...https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/tv-claim-nuclear-bomb-set-in-mykolaiv-will-be-detonated-by-ukraine-to-blame-russia

[creede]

Hey SP.

I didn't actually see the movie until quite recently. Certainly wasn't what I expected.

I did enjoy the plot twist at the end.

You would think having access to more information would be a good thing. Turns out, its far more confusing.

Remember back in the day when the country (and perhaps the world) could focus on one event for several weeks (or perhaps months if the story was big enough)?

Each big story was investigated thoroughly and dissected over and over before it was put to rest. Everyone stayed on topic.

Now everything is so superficial. They tell a story however they want to tell it and then most people just accept it as fact and move on.

Later on a few people might dig deeper and get to the truth, but the lack of amplification of these stories means they draw little attention - so the whole truth never seems to infiltrate the "group conscious."

Weird state of affairs.

[STOCKPICKER4LIFE]

I remember seeing that movie back in 1999 lol. Brad Pitt and Edward Norton were in it. The movie is quite bizarre. In the current state of affairs now. No Director in their right mind would make a movie like that now haha.

[ErnieBilco]

Start collecting monthly divis with SJT.

This is the October divi: $0.349121 per Unit, based primarily upon the reported production of the Trust's subject interests (the "Subject Interests") during the month of August 2022. The distribution is payable November 15, 2022, to the Unit Holders of record as of October 31, 2022

[creede]

Talk about "disinformation" - which is a term I recently noticed in an odd place.

Ever seen the movie "Fight Club"?

It was released in 1999.

Near the end of the movie, when they are busy getting ready for "Project Mayhem," you see either "disinformation" or "misinformation" written on one of the black file bins which are placed on the wall of the house on Paper Street.

Their whole agenda is to disrupt the financial system.

The whole film is quite bizarre -- as is the current state of affairs in the media and politics in general.

What is truth?

[bigbux1]

Might be time to switch to diesel fuel plays. Read the US has less than a months supply.

[jtomm]

Europe natgas down $15 this morning and US natgas flirting with the 4's.

Have we been had by yet another false narrative from the media?

I'm not a big believer in technical analysis, but a lot of people are, so I pay attention to it. Maybe we're near the bottom; there should be pretty good support for natgas around 5-even. But if that breaks, I see no reason we couldn't continue down the 3's or 2's.

Just a couple of months ago, $15-$20 gas seemed inevitable. We could still see it, who knows.

But perhaps the market's biggest fear is of price caps in Europe. That would fit the WEF playbook. Price controls would lead to shortages which would lead to rationing. Then they would blame capitalism for not being able to supply enough gas, thus it's time for govts to nationalize energy companies, because govts know how to solve problems!

[creede]

Agree. Like there are zero crabs in the Bering Sea all of a sudden.

What have they done to us?

Trust is really important.

[jtomm]

I'm starting to wonder if this whole Europe energy thing hasn't just been a massive manipulation. It could all be true, but it could also be a glorified pump and dump.

These days my first inclination is to believe the opposite of what the media reports. There's definitely a narrative: millions in Europe could freeze to death!, people buying firewood to save their lives!, huge devastation! Whether it's someone pushing a nefarious narrative, or just the typical media ritual of making everything sound far worse than it really is to get more viewers/readers/listeners, it's quite possible that the end of the world will once again be postponed.

Meanwhile, massive amounts of money from govts around the globe will have made its way into the hands of people who stand to benefit financially from the fear and hysteria.

We'll see how it all shakes out.

[creede]

Exactly. Up is down and down is up.

[jtomm]

Nothing makes sense to me anymore lol. Natgas price in the low 5's, inventories building around the globe, europe natgas prices plummeting . . . and yet, the prices of natgas stocks are holding up rather well. SD is well above it's low of late Sept.

Could be that the market is anticipating the re-opening of two big LNG facilities here in the U.S, but those haven't happened yet and this administration is incredibly negative toward fossil fuels, so I'll believe the re-openings AFTER they've happened :

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/freeport-lng-prepares-to-resume-service-after-lengthy-outage/

Never know how much of this stuff to believe anymore.

[jtomm]

Well, that guy was dead on with his projection of 125bcf injection. But this article claims the market was expecting +127, so natgas prices went up. lol.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/10755230/nat-gas-prices-jump-on-a-smaller-build-in-eia-inventories

[bigbux1]

Yes, but that's only his projection. Let's see what the real #s are. But like you say interesting to hear the other side, thanks

[jtomm]

Natgas price, here's a guy with a more bearish view. Have no idea if he'll be correct or not, but always worth considering the other side of the argument:

https://twitter.com/CelsiusEnergyFM/status/1580536343859703809

[bigbux1]

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/once-biden-spr-oil-dump-is-over-oil-prices-quickly-back-above-100/

[creede]

I had 25k die on the vine. Paid about $550 for them, but thats ok.

I started buying SD warrants a couple of years ago. Got quite a few in the subs and kept buying as things kept looking more and more bullish for oil & NG.

Got waaaaaaay overloaded with several thousand dollars on the line. Thankfully I came to my senses in May of this year and started letting some go here and there.

Ended up making a nice profit but still disappointed it didn't turn out a whole lot better.

Was dreaming of landing the whale here.

Just needed those commons to keep on running....

Maybe next time.

[bigbux1]

Yeah, thank God I was able to sell em. Had to sell as low as .006 but many in teens, over all made a lil but learned a good lesson, don't buy warrants with less then a year till exp,

[creede]

Well, the warrants are dead.

Now the commons should run to the moon.

lol

[jtomm]

We'll see. I have a sinking feeling it might still be a little early. And if this truly is manipulation before the elections, who knows, natgas might go down a lot more.

Tough to figure out what the facts are these days, much less how the markets are gonna react to those facts. Can't trust hardly anything.

[bigbux1]

Details still kind of sketchy but another pipeline has been blown up, the gas line involved is now reported to the be single pipeline that feeds natural gas to . . CRIMEA.

[bigbux1]

Nicely timed.

[creede]

So bizarre

[jtomm]

Perhaps a turning day? Bought a little SD and SBOW again the last couple of days. Feeling like (or maybe hoping?) energy is gonna turn up for a bit. Maybe? Hopefully?

[ErnieBilco]

Giving to much credit to the gooberment stooges under Moe Biden.

The only targets of Moe's regime is conservatives - they don't think outside the box like to other countries.

[bigbux1]

However the dramatic drop in pressure to only 7 bar (~60 m of water) suggests that the pipeline may have filled with seawater. If that’s the case, it may be that the pipeline will require such extensive repairs that restoring it to operability is cost prohibitive.

Prior to any investigation, Western media is likely to push the theory that Russia is behind this sabotage. Which makes little sense since there is no reason for Russia to destroy their own infrastructure they both spent billions constructing and have complete control over.

Who most clearly benefits from such a disaster? Since the same time last year, the US has more than doubled the volumes of gas it is sending to Europe. https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1574435558675316737%7Ctwgr%5E5ad6b9e3bd1f5fd3478b31501183ece3a3f947b8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhalturnerradioshow.com%2Findex.php%2Fen%2Fnews-page%2Fworld%2Fcovert-intel-urgent-russian-gas-pipelines-to-germany-blown-up

[creede]

Crazy times