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U.S. housing market still isn’t all fine and dandy
The U.S. housing market still isn’t perking up.
An index based on contracts signed by buyers fell in June in a mild surprise to Wall Street. The pending home sales index declined by 1.1%, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Economists had expected a small uptick, especially after an outsized 6% gain in May that marked the third straight increase.
What’s been holding the market back? The usual: rising home prices, higher mortgage rates, tougher loan requirements and sluggish wage growth for prospective buyers.
With home prices starting to moderate and the economy gaining steam, many analysts have been forecasting a steady improvement in sales. So far it hasn’t happened.
If sales do start to accelerate, the pending home sales index is a good bellwether. About four-fifths of the contracts signed result in actual sales that close within two months.
Yet although the pending home sales index is up 9% from February, it’s still down 7.3% compared to June 2013. Sales of new and previously owned homes hit multi-year highs last summer before faltering in the face of surging prices and a backup in mortgage rates. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/07/28/u-s-housing-market-still-isnt-all-fine-and-dandy/
U.S. stocks skid; pending home sales drop
Family Dollar Stores soars after takeover bid from Dollar Tree
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market moved decidedly lower Monday as excitement from a flurry of deal news, including the takeover of Family Dollar Stores Inc. by Dollar Tree Inc. proved unsustainable in light of weak housing data.
Sales of existing home in June fell, marking the first decline in four months. Later this week, the pace of data speeds up as investors will get second-quarter gross domestic product, a Fed decision and July payrolls among other economic items of importance. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-dip-as-busy-data-week-begins-2014-07-28
A flood of data washes up against a bubble of extreme proportions
If you’re a numbers wonk, bust out your slide rule — or whatever it is you techie kids use these days — and get ready for some crunching.
This week has it all. Federal Reserve minutes, jobs report, GDP, some 150 earnings reports — and that’s just the stuff we know about. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/need-to-know/2014/07/28/a-flood-of-data-washes-up-against-a-bubble-of-extreme-proportions/
U.S. stocks: Futures dip as busy data week begins
Family Dollar soars on Dollar Tree takeover offer
MADRID (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures dipped on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average threatening to move further below the key 17,000 level breached late last week, while deal news sent shares of Family Dollar Stores Inc. soaring in premarket.
Home-sales data will kick off a busy few days for economic updates, the biggest of which will be payrolls on Friday, while investors will also get a Federal Open Market Committee decision mid-week. And while the earnings schedule for Monday is lighter — Tyson Foods Inc. and Coach Inc. — the rest of the week will deliver plenty of big names. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-dip-as-busy-data-week-begins-2014-07-28?dist=beforebell
Is the Fed fueling a giant stock market bubble?
Take a good look at the chart below and you'd be excused for concluding that we're in the midst of the greatest stock market bubble of all time. Not only has the S&P 500 fully recovered from the financial crisis, it's a staggering 30% higher than the peaks of the Internet and housing bull markets.
But is this really the case? With unemployment still above 6%, how could we find ourselves in the throes of yet another brewing catastrophe? Didn't investors and analysts learn anything from the past decade and a half?
While it requires some explanation, the answer is that we're most likely not experiencing another irrational inflation of stock prices. The market's record level is instead a predictable response to the Federal Reserve's policy of keeping interest rates at historically low levels. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/07/27/is-the-fed-fueling-a-giant-stock-market-bubble/13172261/
This stock bubble is ‘beyond 1929 and 2007,’ says John Hussman
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/07/27/this-stock-bubble-is-beyond-1929-and-2007-says-john-hussman/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
What the M&A surge says about the stock market
Earnings deluge, top-tier data and the Fed make for busy week
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Merger Monday is now often followed by Merger Tuesday, and investors are cheering a long-awaited resurgence in corporate mergers and acquisitions. But is the pickup something for market bulls to celebrate, or does it herald the end of the rally? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-ma-surge-says-about-the-stock-market-2014-07-27
Get ready for 48 hours of economic fury
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Get ready for 48 hours — and a little more — of the most intense outpouring of information on the U.S. economy you’re likely to ever see.
The schedule between Wednesday and Friday includes second-quarter GDP, a Federal Reserve decision, July payrolls, the July Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report and July car sales.
Yes, we mean “includes,” because there are eight other scheduled releases as well.
So if you’re going to focus on just one number...
“It’s got to be the unemployment rate,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers in Philadelphia. He says there’s a slight chance that the unemployment rate could fall below 6% — “which means, by the end of this year, we’ll be sitting on top of full employment.” The unemployment rate, at 6.1% in June, has fallen from a peak of 10% after the recession.
Full employment refers to the lowest rate at which unemployment can go without sparking inflation. The latest projections from the Fed show central bank officials believe that is between 5.2% and 5.5%.
An economy at full employment could cause wage growth to accelerate — and possibly, inflation. That makes the unemployment rate the number to focus on. “It’s even more important than jobs growth, unless you get 300,000 or more or 200,000 or less,” Naroff says.
Lena Komileva, chief economist of G+ Economics in London, said the market has been underestimating just how quickly labor-market slack has been taken away. But the lack of wage growth implies the Fed has some time before it will need to increase interest rates.
The first reading of gross domestic product growth for the second quarter will be less important for the headline than for the underlying components, Naroff says. In any case, the Commerce Department is revising GDP data from the last three years — so that 2.9% nosedive in the first quarter could be changed yet again.
Komileva says the first-half growth figures won’t be representative of the true pace of growth in the economy. “What we have seen from earnings and payrolls is that the underlying pace is still healthy to progress with tapering,” she said.
The Fed does have important decisions to make, but they’re not likely to come at the meeting that ends Wednesday. The Fed’s asset-purchase program is due to end in the autumn. Interest rate hikes aren’t likely until next year.
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen may use her speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of August to talk about another important point, when the central bank will stop reinvesting proceeds from maturing securities.
“It gives a forum to be more academic and [for Yellen to explain how] to better understand the Fed’s thinking,” Naroff says. Yellen could address whether shrinking the $4 trillion-plus balance sheet implies the Fed is moving toward restrictive policy.
The ISM data, due Friday, also needs to be considered. “If you’re focused on the labor market, you have to make some sort of assumption about underlying conditions, and [ISM] gives us insight to the extent the economy is accelerating,” Naroff says.
“If those numbers do fall off a cliff, it ultimately will show back up in the labor market. If they stay at solid levels, there’s no reason to expect anything but further tightening.”
Komileva agrees. She says the Fed needs to start making noises soon if they expect to raise rates in the middle of next year.
“The first-tier indicators will go a long way in assessing how confident officials might feel to begin that communications process of targeting expectations for the beginning of the rate liftoff.” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-48-hours-of-economic-fury-2014-07-27
Busiest week of the summer coming up
A crush of big-cap earnings and arguably the most important economic reports until September combine to make the week ahead the busiest of the summer for markets.
The Fed also meets Tuesday and Wednesday, but it is unlikely to change its message so traders are honing in more on second-quarter GDP Wednesday and the July employment report Friday. There are also reports on home prices, consumer confidence and sentiment readings, monthly auto sales, and ISM manufacturing data.
"This for me is the last key week of the summer," said George Goncalves, head of interest rate strategy at Nomura. The next big event will be when the Fed meets Aug. 22 at its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Some Fed watchers believe Fed officials will start to discuss their exit strategy and the path to higher rates. Then the next big batch of economic data comes in September, with the release of the August jobs report Labor Day week.
A crush of big-cap earnings and arguably the most important economic reports until September combine to make the week ahead the busiest of the summer for markets.
The Fed also meets Tuesday and Wednesday, but it is unlikely to change its message so traders are honing in more on second-quarter GDP Wednesday and the July employment report Friday. There are also reports on home prices, consumer confidence and sentiment readings, monthly auto sales, and ISM manufacturing data.
"This for me is the last key week of the summer," said George Goncalves, head of interest rate strategy at Nomura. The next big event will be when the Fed meets Aug. 22 at its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Some Fed watchers believe Fed officials will start to discuss their exit strategy and the path to higher rates. Then the next big batch of economic data comes in September, with the release of the August jobs report Labor Day week.
"We want to get a glimpse of what may be in store once things start moving again because we need a catalyst. We don't have any major ones," Goncalves said, adding the geopolitical events will always be a possible catalyst in the background.
"Everyone is desperately seeking [volatility]. They want honest to goodness reinforcing information. Maybe next week is a glimpse of what is in store for the September period when the Fed gets more vocal."
More than 140 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings in the coming week, with six Dow stocks among them. Big oil—Exxon Mobil and BP—and refiners—Valero, and Phillips 66—report alongside consumer products names like Procter and Gamble, Colgate-Palmolive and Kraft Foods. Pharma—Merck and Pfizer—also report, as do some momentum names like Tesla, LinkedIn and GoPro, making its earnings debut as a public company.
Focus will also remain on geopolitical risks, as Russia was reported to be shipping arms to Ukraine and Israel widens its ground operation in Gaza. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101868173
The New York Times calls on US to legalize marijuana
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101869651
Coolest Summer On Record In The US
Posted on July 26, 2014 by stevengoddard
The frequency of 90 degree days in the US has been plummeting for 80 years, and 2014 has had the lowest frequency of 90 degree days through July 23 on record. The only other year which came close was 1992, and that was due to dust in the atmosphere from Mt Pinatubo.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/26/coolest-summer-on-record-in-the-us/
Coolest Summer On Record In The US
Posted on July 26, 2014 by stevengoddard
The frequency of 90 degree days in the US has been plummeting for 80 years, and 2014 has had the lowest frequency of 90 degree days through July 23 on record. The only other year which came close was 1992, and that was due to dust in the atmosphere from Mt Pinatubo.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/26/coolest-summer-on-record-in-the-us/
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U.S. stocks fall; Dow weekly loss biggest in 6 weeks
Amazon.com fall on earnings miss, Visa drops after trimming outlook
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 17,000 on Friday on disappointing earnings, leaving it with its biggest weekly decline in six weeks.
Big declines consumer discretionary stocks, led by Amazon.com, pushed the S&P 500 away from the record close set on Thursday.
But one of the day’s standouts was fast-food chain El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ:LOCO) , whose shares surged 60% to $24 on their trading debut, after the initial public offering was priced at $15.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) lost 123.23 points, or 0.7%, to 16,960.57, weighed down by losses in Visa Inc. For the week, the blue-chip index fell 0.8%, its biggest weekly loss since June 14.
A big contributor was Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) , which dropped 3.8% after the credit-card company trimmed its forecast for annual revenue growth.
The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) closed 9.6 points, or 0.5%, lower at 1,978.34 and finished the week roughly where it started it. The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ:COMP) shed 22.5 points, or 0.5%, to 4,449.56, but eked out a weekly gain of 0.4%.
“Today’s action is all earnings-related. At this point,” said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.
“Investors pay attention to guidance from companies, and the lowering of the outlook from Visa signalled that perhaps the second half is not going to be as strong as previously thought,” she added.
Investors also were disappointed with Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and a wider-than-expected second-quarter loss late Thursday. Shares plunged 10%. Also read: Is Amazon spending like a drunken sailor?
Pandora Media (NYSE:P) dived 11%, after the Internet-based radio company posted wider losses late Thursday.
Cynk Technology (OTC:CYNK) plunged 85%, after trading in the stock resumed following the suspension by the SEC earlier this month.
For more on the day’s notable movers, read our Movers & Shakers column.
Meanwhile, orders for durable goods such as computers, aircraft and heavy machinery rose a solid 0.7% in June, offering a sign of a general upswing in business spending. But investors showed little reaction.
Next week has the potential to be big for economic news, with a Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the monthly jobs report topping a long list of data on the docket. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-lean-south-amazon-may-fall-2014-07-25
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Gold recovers 1% to settle above $1300
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures recovered from a three-day losing streak to close above $1,300 on Friday. August gold (CNS:GCQ4) rose $12.50, or 1%, for the session to settle at $1,303.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal is down 0.5% for the week after having closed below $1,300-mark on Thursday, the first time in a month.
Looking better $3.06 +20%
U.S. stocks open lower; Dow falls below 17,000
Durable goods orders rise by more than expected; Amazon hit after results
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market opened lower on Friday, weighed down by disappointing earnings from companies such as Amazon.com.
Nonetheless, the main benchmarks were on track to finish the week with marginal gains.
Stock-market investors showed virtually no reaction to stronger-than-expected orders for durable goods, released before the opening bell.
The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) opened 9 points, or 0.4%, lower at 1,980.96, retreating from the record close reached on Thursday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) lost 117 points, or 0.7%, to 16,965.02 at the open.
The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ:COMP) began the session 30 points, or 0.7%, lower at 4,441.20, weighed down by Amazon.com and Pandora, both tumbling 12%. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-lean-south-amazon-may-fall-2014-07-25?link=MW_latest_news
The VIX, Startup Guy and why Amazon’s heading for a beatdown
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/need-to-know/2014/07/25/the-vix-startup-guy-and-why-amazons-heading-for-a-beatdown/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
Durable-goods orders expected up for fourth month out of five
Orders for long-lasting goods such as autos, airplanes and appliances likely increased in June for the fourth month out of the past five, according to economists’ forecasts for data to be released Friday.
Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the government to report that durable-goods orders rose 0.2% in June, reversing a 1% decline in May.
The monthly report on durable goods is one of the most volatile the government produces and large swings often occur from one month to the next. Economists like to slice and dice the report because transportation and defense orders are so volatile.
For Wall Street, a key metric is nondefense orders of capital goods excluding aircraft. Those orders rose 0.7% in May after a 1.1% decline in April and a huge 4.7% jump in March.
Underneath it all, the trend is fairly positive, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
“We think the trend in business investment is upwards,” Guatieri said, noting that job growth has been strong.
“The two tend to go hand-in-hand,” he said.
Equipment is expected to boost growth in the second quarter, after it trimmed growth in the first three months of the year by 0.2 percentage points, said Michael Gapen, economist at Barclays. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/07/24/durable-goods-orders-expected-up-for-fourth-month-out-of-five/
U.S. stocks: Futures lean south; Amazon may fall
Durable goods orders ahead; Pandora may also see premarket pressure
MADRID (MarketWatch) — Stock futures leaned lower, with tech stocks setting up for particular weakness after Amazon.com Inc. posted disappointing results, and as investors readied for durable-goods data.
Shares of Pandora Media Inc. could also extend late-session losses on Thursday after results.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJU4 +0.01% fell 17 points to 16,981, while those for the S&P 500 index SPU4 -0.20% eased 2.1 points to 1,978.60. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index NDU4 -0.37% dropped 12.50 points to 3,959.25.
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, a report on durable-goods orders for June will be released. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect orders rose 0.2%, which would reverse a 1% decline in May. The report is often volatile, with swings reported from one month to the next.
Next week has the potential to be big for economic news, with a Federal Open Market Committee meeting and nonfarm-payroll data topping a long list of data on the docket. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-lean-south-amazon-may-fall-2014-07-25?dist=beforebell
NOAA: 28,504 Low Max Records Set in U.S. in Last 365 Days
http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/07/24/noaa-28504-low-max-records-set-in-u-s-in-last-365-days/
September in July: Big cold front to bring stellar weather next week
Following in the footsteps of the record-setting cool air mass in mid-July, a second blast of air with polar origins will invade the eastern U.S. to close July. Like the original, the sequel will be glorious.
This taste of September may not be quite as strong mid-July’s version, but should produce temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal across a large swath of the eastern U.S. by early Tuesday.
The jet stream will take a big southeastward dive on Sunday, with a cold front along its leading edge. Thunderstorms - some severe – are likely to erupt out ahead of it in the Ohio Valley and East Coast Sunday into Monday. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/07/24/september-in-july-big-cold-front-to-bring-stellar-summer-weather-next-week/
September in July: Big cold front to bring stellar weather next week
Following in the footsteps of the record-setting cool air mass in mid-July, a second blast of air with polar origins will invade the eastern U.S. to close July. Like the original, the sequel will be glorious.
This taste of September may not be quite as strong mid-July’s version, but should produce temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal across a large swath of the eastern U.S. by early Tuesday.
The jet stream will take a big southeastward dive on Sunday, with a cold front along its leading edge. Thunderstorms - some severe – are likely to erupt out ahead of it in the Ohio Valley and East Coast Sunday into Monday. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/07/24/september-in-july-big-cold-front-to-bring-stellar-summer-weather-next-week/
Sodastream trader makes 3,000% profit in two hours
Was it skill, dumb luck—or something more sinister? That's what traders are asking about a big, longshot bet on Sodastream that returned some 3,000 percent in just two hours.
Two minutes before 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, one options trader bought 500 weekly 30-strike calls in Sodastream for 15 cents each (or $15 per contract, given that each contract controls 100 shares) that expire Friday. It was by far the biggest Sodastream trade of the day in terms of the number of contracts. The purchase gives the trader the right to buy Sodastream shares for $30 at the close of Friday trading. The reason those options were so inexpensive is that the stock was trading at about $29.50 at the time, meaning the chance of the stock closing Friday above $30 was considered to be especially low.
But then, shortly before noon, Bloomberg reported that the company is in talks with an investment firm about taking the company private. After a halt, the stock sailed as high as $36.
The news created an instant windfall for the trader, as these options, which were bought for $7,500, became worth as much as $250,000.
Read More SodaStream reportedly in talks to go private, shares spike
"Prior to the halt, calls had already traded more than two times their average daily volume," commented Dan Nathan of RiskReversal.com. "The fact that the most active option of the day was an out-of-the-money call that expired tomorrow suggests someone knew something, as there were no scheduled events."
The trade, which could end up drawing insider-trading-related scrutiny, joins other recent suspicious options trades, such as the "fishy" action in Puma Biotechnology ahead of that company's announcement of positive test results. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101864683
This u JB? Sodastream trader makes 3,000% profit in two hours
Was it skill, dumb luck—or something more sinister? That's what traders are asking about a big, longshot bet on Sodastream that returned some 3,000 percent in just two hours.
Two minutes before 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, one options trader bought 500 weekly 30-strike calls in Sodastream for 15 cents each (or $15 per contract, given that each contract controls 100 shares) that expire Friday. It was by far the biggest Sodastream trade of the day in terms of the number of contracts. The purchase gives the trader the right to buy Sodastream shares for $30 at the close of Friday trading. The reason those options were so inexpensive is that the stock was trading at about $29.50 at the time, meaning the chance of the stock closing Friday above $30 was considered to be especially low.
But then, shortly before noon, Bloomberg reported that the company is in talks with an investment firm about taking the company private. After a halt, the stock sailed as high as $36.
The news created an instant windfall for the trader, as these options, which were bought for $7,500, became worth as much as $250,000.
Read More SodaStream reportedly in talks to go private, shares spike
"Prior to the halt, calls had already traded more than two times their average daily volume," commented Dan Nathan of RiskReversal.com. "The fact that the most active option of the day was an out-of-the-money call that expired tomorrow suggests someone knew something, as there were no scheduled events."
The trade, which could end up drawing insider-trading-related scrutiny, joins other recent suspicious options trades, such as the "fishy" action in Puma Biotechnology ahead of that company's announcement of positive test results. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101864683
After-hours buzz: Pandora, Starbucks, Visa & more
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101865412
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S&P 500 ekes out a record, but Dow industrials, Nasdaq slip
Facebook rallies on results; Qualcomm drops on earnings miss
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high for the 27th time this year on Thursday, but other U.S. stock-market benchmarks slipped back into the red just ahead of the closing bell.
The main benchmarks traded in a narrow range throughout the session as investors processed a deluge of earnings reports and mixed economic data.
The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) closed less than a point higher at 1,987.98, after setting a fresh intraday record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) finished off 2.83 points at 17,083.80. The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ:COMP) ended the day 1.59 points lower at 4,472.11.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, says markets have had a pretty good run, which make them vulnerable for corrections.
“Markets are already at lofty levels and we need more good news to keep going higher,” he said. “Today’s economic and corporate news have been mixed. Earnings so far have supported the market, but there is cautious optimism among investors as we are entering historically weak months.”
Gold settles below $1,300 an ounce
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures extended losses Thursday to fall below $1,300 for the first time in a month as strong corporate earnings made stocks more attractive in comparison. August gold (CNS:GCQ4) dropped $13.90, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,290.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The S&P 500 index is moderately higher, climbing for a third day.
U.S. stocks pare gains; home sales disappoint
S&P 500 sets intraday record
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks got off to a shaky start on Thursday as the main benchmarks switched between small gains and losses as investors weighed upbeat earnings against weaker-than-expected home sales data.
Ahead of the opening bell, weekly jobless claims came in far better than expected, as the number of people claiming benefits fell to the lowest level since February 2006, but June’s pace of new-home sales hit three-month low. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-up-with-eyes-on-ford-facebook-2014-07-24