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Get a load of third chart in this bubble piece
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/08/initial-claims-send-longest-bubble-peak-warning-in-history/
Initial Claims Send Longest Bubble Peak Warning In History
by Lee Adler • August 13, 2015
The current string of record lows in claims is now 6 months beyond the point at which other major bubbles have begun to deflate. Based on the fact that previous records were attained at and for some time after the peaks of massive bubbles, by that standard, the current financial engineering, central bank bubble finance bubble, which is very much a big money, institutional bubble, may be the bubble to end all bubbles!
The scariest reason China devalued the yuan in one chart
http://e.businessinsider.com/view/4bb22379e3065cb907b4e3a255ccb97f15dd96b209cf8b5f/e876aa4e
Nomura economist Richard Koo said in a recent note: "I suspect the breakdown of the upward trend in the job offers-to-seekers ratio came as a major shock to the Chinese authorities."
2 bits on China & Yuan in Asia
When Does a One-Off Yuan Devaluation Become a Trend? -- ANZ -- Market Talk
2257 GMT [Dow Jones] -- While it is very early days, the question of whether yuan devaluation is now a trend looks likely to become the key question for the PBoC as the second day of the new FX regime saw the yuan drop again, ANZ said in a strategy note. It is believed that the PBoC intervened heavily to mitigate the fall, something that is likely to be an ongoing feature should the market keep attempting to bolt, 2% at a time, it added. The events are tightening U.S. monetary conditions via a higher U.S. dollar that raises questions about the likelihood of a near-term Fed hike and the U.S. interest rate path. This saw the U.S. dollar come under pressure overnight. (james.glynn@wsj.com; Twitter @ JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-12-15 1900ET
------------------------------
Yuan Devaluation Boosts Investors Betting Against Asia
China's currency devaluation is delivering a windfall to investors that anticipated a slowdown in the second- largest economy and then bet against the free-floating currencies of China's regional trading partners.
A 4% decline over two days in the yuan has hammered the Malaysian ringgit, Singapore dollar and Indonesian rupiah, among others. Many investors expect further declines across the region, reflecting likely economic weakness as China competes more vigorously in export markets.
The bet against regional Asian currencies has become one of the most popular trades on Wall Street since a nine- month-long U.S. dollar rally petered out in March. Many macro hedge funds, which make broad bets based on economic trends, unwound bets that the dollar would rise against the euro and opened fresh wagers on declines in currencies around Asia .
The investors' choice of targets reflects in part the widespread view that China's performance has been flagging following years of double-digit, investment-led growth, and in part the difficulty foreigners face investing in China .
Among those to have profited from bets against currencies in Asia is Caxton Associates LLP , which runs more than $8 billion in its macro strategy. The fund is up around 1% this month, said an investor. The fund is up 5.8% so far this year.
The macro fund at Omni Partners LLP , which runs $820 million , has risen 2.5% this month, helped by a bet against the yuan and against U.S. equities, said a person familiar with the matter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped nine of the past 10 sessions.
The gains illustrate the roundabout methods employed by many investors in playing the Chinese markets. Foreigners continue to have limited access in many cases despite recent liberalization efforts, so those seeking to bet that China's economy would slow have been forced to go elsewhere.
"People have readjusted what they're long the dollar against," said Robert Duggan , managing director at fund-of- hedge-funds investor Skybridge Capital , which manages $13.4 billion in assets. "Many have rotated into [bets against] commodity currencies and emerging markets, particularly in Asia , which has to do with China's weakening growth story."
Meanwhile, Pedro de Noronha , managing partner at London -based Noster Capital LLP , said he was profiting from having bought credit-default swaps on emerging-market sovereign debt and U.S. high-yield bonds. CDS are insurancelike contracts that can rise in value if bonds fall.
"Things aren't looking good over there," he said of China's economy.
Other funds that have been betting against Asian currencies and likely to benefit from China's move include Discovery Capital Management LLC , which manages $15 billion in assets, Tudor Investment Corp. and Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP , people familiar with the matter said. Discovery and Tudor declined to comment. Brevan didn't respond to a request for comment.
China has become an increasingly popular target for short bets that asset values will decline. But limited foreign access to the country's equity and bond markets means it is difficult to wager a bearish bet on China . Policy uncertainties could also pose a risk for such bets. During the stock-market crash, Chinese regulators restricted share sales by large shareholders.
Typically, investors and businesses wishing to bet on the direction of the yuan enter into a swap transaction with a bank. Total annual trading volumes of such swaps rose 32% to $4.49 trillion in 2014, according to the People's Bank of China .
But the market remains tiny compared with other major currencies. In 2013, the average daily turnover in the global foreign-exchange market was $5.3 trillion , in which dollar transactions accounted for 87%.
Volume in the futures market, where investors can make bets on the future direction of yuan, remains low, and the pressure that has been building in emerging markets ahead of an expected Federal Reserve interest-rate increase made the bet against other Asian currencies irresistible to many investors.
Many of the pan-Asian currencies appeared vulnerable before the devaluation. Indonesia's rupiah fell Wednesday to the weakest level since July 1998 . Indonesia's JSX, the country's stock-market benchmark, fell 5.7% over the past two sessions. The Malaysian ringgit and Taiwan dollar lost 1.5% and 2.3%, respectively, against the dollar over the past two days.
"Now, your biggest trade partner has the more competitive exchange rate, whose exports could eclipse yours," said Koon Chow , a senior strategist at Union Bancaire Privée, a Swiss private bank, which manages $3 billion in emerging-market assets.
Some funds made money as higher volatility in the yuan pushed up the price of options, which funds had bought cheaply, said Kevin Arenson , chief investment officer at Stenham Advisors PLC, which runs $3.2 billion in assets.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-12-15 1900ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
MW bunch links & bits on China, markets
By Barbara Kollmeyer , MarketWatch
Critical information ahead of the U.S. market's open
So much for that "one-time correction." The People's Bank of China let the yuan drop again overnight, fixing the currency 1.6% below Tuesday's close, following the 1.9% devaluation heard around the world a day ago.
It then had to intervene to keep things from getting out of hand (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-intervenes-to-support-tumbling-yuan-2015-08-12-648584).
(https://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/631310510722580481)
Cue continued freakout for global markets.
Deutsche Bank , for one, is predicting the yuan is overvalued by around 10%, so if the yuan continues to weaken, things could yet get a lot darker for markets. And stocks aren't dealing well with the new China reality they've seen so far.
Jani Ziedins of the Cracked Market blog (http://crackedmarket.com/) says the U.S. market's reaction -- the S&P 500 fell 1% Tuesday, and futures are pointing sharply lower on Wednesday -- looks a bit overdone. Still, he says, it's understandable given the reasons behind it -- fears of much bigger economic problems in China . Good news? "...if a crumbling Chinese economy cannot bring down this market, then nothing will and all we can do is hang on and enjoy the ride," he says.
Ziedins says watch the next two days to get some insight into the market's psyche. Either selling is revving up to drop this market to levels not seen in years or this emotional purge will exhaust itself, and a rebound will follow, he predicts. Our chart of the day shows just how long it's been since the S&P 500 has had a decent correction.
But if death crosses (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-death-cross-is-a-bearish-omen-for-the-stock-market-2015-08-11) and visions of rotting Apples (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apples-drop-highlights-risk-of-exposure-to-china-2015-08-11) are disturbing your sleep, you aren't alone. "The darkest horizon ever approaches, infused with Chinese black coal," predicts the Fly, blogging for iBank Coin. It's time to be cautious, he says. More on that here (http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2015/08/11/the-darkest-horizon-ever-is-ahead/).
If you really want to shiver your timbers, then check out our call of the day. One of the biggest bears out there is riding the China devaluation to the hilt, talking boils and puss and predicting a financial crisis a la 2008. Brr...
Key market gauges
Wall Street is set to get beat up again, with futures (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-slump-as-china-devalues-yuan-again-2015-08-12) for the S&P 500 and Dow down 1%. In Asia (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-stock-slump-deepens-after-china-devaluation-move-2015-08-12), emerging currencies got knocked around, the Hang Seng dropped 2%, and Australian stocks and the Nikkei fell by around 1.6% each. The dollar hit a two-month high against the yen. European stocks are also getting slapped around.
Elsewhere, gold is up and crude oil is rallying after an International Energy Agency report on the state of supply and demand.
The stat
Oil demand is growing at its fastest pace in five years, says the International Energy Agency (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-demand-growing-at-fastest-pace-in-5-years-iea-2015-08-12). That's the good news. The bad news? Rival production will only start to taper off next year.
The quote
"If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, 'You're going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway,' that is a recipe, very quickly ... for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world." -- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaking about Iran at a Reuters Newsmaker event (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/12/us-iran-nuclear-kerry-idUSKCN0QG1V020150812) on Tuesday.
Earnings
China's top e-commerce provider Alibaba (BABA) is getting dinged in premarket after revenue fell short of estimates. Macy's (M)(M) is coming up.
After the close, Cisco (CSCO) and News Corp. (the publisher of MarketWatch) will report.
More on moving stocks here (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/macys-alibaba-cisco-news-corp-earnings-in-focus-2015-08-11).
The economy
New York Fed President William Dudley will speak on the economic outlook in Rochester NY at 8:30 a.m. He's known to be one of the most dovish members of the FOMC. Watch any Q&A and comments on China , as well as clues about a September hike.
A report on job openings comes at 10 a.m.
Check out:
The call
SocGen's permabear, Albert Edwards , is among those who have been calling this yuan devaluation for years. So a little gloating is in order, we guess.
Weighing in on yesterday's move in a fresh note, Edwards predicts China's actions will release a tidal wave of deflation in the West. "Make no mistake, this is the start of something big, something ugly," he says. And while western nations have been sighing with relief over abating deflation pressures, Asia has presented a "puss-filled boil" that needs to be lanced, he warns.
"We have long believed that we are only one misstep from outright deflation in the West, with core inflation in both the U.S. and the eurozone at just 1%. We expect the acceleration of EM devaluations to send waves of deflation to the West to overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession," Edwards says.
With that, he predicts "a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008," along with sub-1% 10-year Treasury yields as core inflation drops below zero.
Note that Edwards has had his share of misses. As CNBC recently pointed out, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 50% since the strategist warned in September 2012 that the U.S. was in recession and a Wall Street rout was coming. Read that story here, where he also predicts a repeat financial crisis (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/societe-generales-albert-edwards-get-ready-to-relive-the-2008-crisis.html).
(http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/societe-generales-albert-edwards-get-ready-to-relive-the-2008-crisis.html)
Earnings
China's top e-commerce provider Alibaba (BABA) is getting dinged in premarket after revenue fell short of estimates. Macy's (M)(M) is coming up.
Fossil(FOSL) is down in premarket after the company said last night a stronger U.S. dollar was harming earnings and impacting its outlook.
After the close, Cisco (CSCO) and News Corp. (the publisher of MarketWatch) will report.
More on moving stocks here (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/macys-alibaba-cisco-news-corp-earnings-in-focus-2015-08-11).
The buzz
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has put Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA)(BRKA) ratings on review (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-to-review-berkshire-hathaways-rating-on-precision-deal-2015-08-11) after news that Warren Buffett's conglomerate will buy Precision Castparts (PCP) for about $32 billion . The S&P is partly worried about how Berkshire will finance the deal.
"What's interesting is that Buffett is buying this stock after it's had several great years. Since 1978, PCP is up over 158,000% to the S&P 500's 2,100%," notes Crossing Wall Street's Eddy Elfenbein (http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/08/buffett-buys-precision-castparts.html).
The FDA chewed out Kim Kardashian (http://mashable.com/2015/08/11/fda-kim-kardashian/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=rss&utm_source=%23AshkaveliMedia&utm_medium=twitter) over a "misleading" Instagram selfie about a morning sickness drug. Meanwhile, watch this news anchor flip out over the mere mention of that family's name:
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/kODnzx694PQ)
GE (GE) is selling $8.5 billion of healthcare-related loans and its Healthcare Financial Services U.S. lending unit (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ge-to-sell-healthcare-loans-hfs-unit-in-deal-worth-about-9-billion-2015-08-11) to Capital One for about $9 billion .
The chart
Short Side of Long blogger Tiho Brkan reminds us that the S&P 500 is in one of the longest stretches in its history -- nearly 4 years -- without a meaningful correction. He's watching to see if the index drops below its 200-day moving average support of around 2,075. Pressures's on as the S&P 500 has traded above its 200-day moving average for 183 out of the last 187 weeks.
Yesterdays' tumble for the S&P 500 and futures calling for another rout this morning mean the bears could be ready to take control, at least for a while, says Brkan. Read the full blog here (http://shortsideoflong.com/).
More spooky charts? MarketWatch's Tomi Kilgore warns of a bearish omen in this death cross (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-death-cross-is-a-bearish-omen-for-the-stock-market-2015-08-11).
Random reads
@tinder (https://twitter.com/Tinder/status/631225194863030272) (https://twitter.com/Tinder/status/631225194863030272) goes to war with Vanity Fair over this article (http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2015/08/tinder-hook-up-culture-end-of-dating).
Susan Sarandon is asking Oklahoma's governor not to execute this man (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/08/12/susan-sarandon-calls-on-oklahoma-governor-to-intervene-in-man-execution/).
Arlington, Tex. police officer fired over shooting death of unarmed black teen (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/us/arlington-tex-officer-is-fired-in-fatal-shooting-of-christian-taylor.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news).
Sharks shut down famed surfers' paradise (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/world/africa/reunion-once-a-surfers-paradise-finds-only-sharks-in-its-waters.html).
Deviants. Watch Jimmy Fallon nail Donald Trump .
(http://www.youtube.com/embed/ks_240VM1WI)
A $320,000 white Ferrari and a jet to Mexico . Just Kylie Jenner's 18th.
(https://instagram.com/p/6OlLeZHGs-/?taken-by=kyliejenner)
Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
Dow Jones Newswires
08-12-15 0722E
APP warns of cash need
American Apparel Inc. warned Tuesday it needs to raise money or refinance debt to avoid defaulting on a loan, adding it will miss a regulatory deadline to file its June quarter financial results.
The Wall Street Journal reported the financial negotiations last month when the retailer said it intended to close several stores as part of an aggressive cost-cutting plan.
American Apparel has posted losses for the past five years and has been caught in a legal tussle with its former chief executive, Dov Charney , who was terminated in December following allegations of misconduct and violating company policy.
The retailer, which last year also delayed its second-quarter filings amid negotiations with its lenders, said it had identified potential violations of certain minimum financial ratios under its Capital One credit line as part of a customary review.
It estimated that as of June 30 , it had $7 million in cash and $6 million left in its Capital One credit line.
Meanwhile, the retailer said its second-quarter loss widened to $19 million , or 11 cents a share, compared with $16 million , or nine cents a share, a year earlier.
Loss from operations was $13 million , compared with a year-earlier profit of $3 million .
Net sales fell about 17% to $134 million while sales at established stores fell 14% adjusting for currency fluctuations.
Gross profit narrowed to 46% from 51%, the retailer said.
Write to Maria Armental at maria.armental@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-11-15 1834ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
American Apparel APP warns of cash need
American Apparel Inc. warned Tuesday it needs to raise money or refinance debt to avoid defaulting on a loan, adding it will miss a regulatory deadline to file its June quarter financial results.
The Wall Street Journal reported the financial negotiations last month when the retailer said it intended to close several stores as part of an aggressive cost-cutting plan.
American Apparel has posted losses for the past five years and has been caught in a legal tussle with its former chief executive, Dov Charney , who was terminated in December following allegations of misconduct and violating company policy.
The retailer, which last year also delayed its second-quarter filings amid negotiations with its lenders, said it had identified potential violations of certain minimum financial ratios under its Capital One credit line as part of a customary review.
It estimated that as of June 30 , it had $7 million in cash and $6 million left in its Capital One credit line.
Meanwhile, the retailer said its second-quarter loss widened to $19 million , or 11 cents a share, compared with $16 million , or nine cents a share, a year earlier.
Loss from operations was $13 million , compared with a year-earlier profit of $3 million .
Net sales fell about 17% to $134 million while sales at established stores fell 14% adjusting for currency fluctuations.
Gross profit narrowed to 46% from 51%, the retailer said.
Write to Maria Armental at maria.armental@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-11-15 1834ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ Commod Index -2% Noon ET
Dow Jones Commodity Index 203.296 dn -4.140 or -2.00%
DJ Commod Index -2% Noon ET
Dow Jones Commodity Index 203.296 dn -4.140 or -2.00%
What's happening in the oil market right now is 'unprecedented'
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-happening-oil-market-now-100400920.html
Interesting article you posted. Buried in this 'unprecedented' story & charts is a futures projection also looking for higher oil 4th Q @$70.
35 year average price is $56 which is around point where most recent pop got stalled.
The Credit Suisse charts are helpful. Really highlights the severe decline in rig count implies a sharp snapback unless solar, alternatives has a monster breakthrough to 'free energy'. Spec longs are still @$100. On its chart it seems price has moved higher Y/Y going into the fall after late summer lows regularly in the past.
Of course remains to be seen whether oil has lost its grease and becomes the new @$15 of old days.
Would seem to require a sizeable shift in the overall US economy to begin such a collapse to historic lows. There's beginning to be wage and supply inflation. First NYC bank raised minimum wage to $15 hour, water bills moved higher, colleges aren't cheaper. Drip by drip the force begins.
But if the big spec trade begins a sharp, fast decline well that's writing on the wall to easy $25.
"The oil-futures market projects oil prices will bounce back to near $70 a barrel. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil finished the week below $44 a barrel."
PetroChina is huge spec play
Bit more & graph
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-02/in-china-s-broken-markets-a-310-billion-stock-is-transformed
PetroChina Co. has about 11 billion barrels of oil reserves, half a million employees and sales that exceed the annual economic output of South Africa.
Not too long ago, stats like that were important to traders of PetroChina shares. Now, they could hardly matter less.
As state-linked funds intervene to prop up the nation’s sinking stocks, PetroChina has transformed into a speculative bet on how much money the government is plowing into equities on any given day. The $310 billion oil producer’s top weighting in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index makes it an ideal target for funds trying to influence the broader market.
The result has been a surge inhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-02/in-china-s-broken-markets-a-310-billion-stock-is-transformed -- fluctuations so big that they top 95 percent of the stocks in America’s small-cap Russell 2000 Index. The swings are another sign of how state intervention is leading to price distortions in the world’s second-largest equity market.
Taiwan Nikkei July PMI Rises to 47.1; Remains in Contraction
HONG KONG--An indicator of Taiwan's manufacturing activity continued to point to a contraction in July due to the sharp fall of production and new orders, amid weak demand from export markets, Nikkei said Monday.
The monthly Nikkei Taiwan Purchasing Managers Index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, rose to 47.1 in July from 46.3 in June. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates manufacturing is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The PMI is derived from a number of subindexes, including employment and new orders.
" Taiwan's manufacturing sector had a disappointing start to the third quarter, with output, new orders and new export business all declining at historically sharp rates," Nikkei said in a statement.
"It appears a global economic slowdown is likely to remain a headwind to growth in the second half of the year, as panellists mentioned softer demand in key export markets such as China , Europe and the U.S.," it noted, suggesting manufacturers are prepared to make further cuts to production if weaker demand conditions persist.
The reading had been released as the HSBC Taiwan Manufacturing PMI until June 2015 , when HSBC and Markit Economics ended their tie-up. Markit said on June 29 that Nikkei would assume sponsorship of the Taiwan survey and nine others. The Nikkei Taiwan PMI is compiled by U.K. -based research firm Markit Group Ltd. and is sponsored by Nikkei.
Write to Chester Yung at chester.yung@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-02-15 2231ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Q2 GDP outlook Thur am exp to 2.9%
03:27 PM EDT, 07/29/2015 (MT Newswires) -- The Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) report is due Thursday at 8:30 a.m ET and is expected to rise 2.9% (consensus range: 1.9% to 3.5%) after a drop of 0.2%. The price index measure is seen 1.5% (consensus range: -0.1% to 2.0%) from 0.0%.
http://www.mtnewswires.com
Nine Charts That Show US Bull Market Is Thinning
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/nine-charts-that-show-the-u-s-bull-market-is-thinning
Greece hangs on for now SA
Seeking Alpha am
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras seems to have contained a rebellion in his left-wing Syriza party after winning parliamentary approval for a second package of reforms required to start bailout talks with international creditors. The bill covered rules for dealing with failed banks and speeding up the justice system - two more conditions set by the eurozone and IMF to open negotiations on an €86B rescue loan. Euro +0.7% to $1.10.
NYSE & Nasdaq to back up each other's closings
Seeking Alpha am
Under an unusual partnership of rivals, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:ICE) and Nasdaq OMX (NASDAQ:NDAQ) are planning an agreement to back up each other's closing auctions in the event of an outage similar to the nearly four-hour trading halt at NYSE earlier this month. The closing auction is perhaps the most valuable part of the day for many institutional investors because it sets important benchmark prices for stocks and is a good time to execute large orders.
WSJ Greek shipping industry tide turns
link should work, not paywalled
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tide-turns-for-greeces-shipping-industry-1437517198?mod=e2tw
Tide Turns for Greece’s Shipping Industry
Shipowners, long shielded from higher taxes, move into cross hairs as Athens pursues bailout
As Greeks debate the fresh austerity measures that are a prerequisite for another bailout, the country’s world-leading shipping industry is coming under increasing pressure to carry more of the load.
At the behest of its international creditors, the Syriza-led government has agreed to raise taxes on the long-protected sector—one so much a part of Greek culture that it has tax breaks enshrined in the constitution.
The industry is dominated by a small circle of family-run companies that control almost a fifth of the world’s shipping fleet—long a source of national pride.
Yet recent years of economic pain have fed a deep-seated suspicion among many Greeks that the country’s high-living shipping magnates haven’t been paying their fair share.
“The country’s shipping community must be ready to lift the heaviest of burdens to help the country out of economic crisis,” Merchant Marine Minister Thodoris Dritsas told a gathering of owners in January, shortly after the left-wing Syriza party took office.
But industry executives and supporters say higher taxes threaten to drive away a business that employs more than 200,000 people and contributes around 7.5% of Greece’s gross domestic product. By comparison, tourism directly contributes about 600,000 jobs and 9% of GDP.
<more>
Gold Miners Chart & short analysis
Mid-day minute
https://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/
GDX Ricochets Off of Meaningful Support. What Now?
By Mike Paulenoff
The only technical justification I have so far for putting money to work in the Gold Miners is that the price structure has found support so far right at the lower-boundary line coordinate of the down-sloping 13-month channel, now at 13.75.
If the lower-channel line contains further weakness (+/- 1% slip down to 13.60), then just maybe Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is establishing the first low-coordinate of a significant bottoming process.
Should such a bottom emerge-- distinct from a "V" Bottom, then we should expect a period of basing between 13.60 and 15.50 in the upcoming days and weeks.
See chart.
Somewhat Greece & its shippers
The big guys there have made/announced they have plans for up move elsewhere should a grease fire breakout large enough. Not a major effort since its not factories or housing.
Mainly admin functions and ports are all over the place. Not something they'd want but certainly is doable.
Also small change being made regarding the smaller vessels count. Check out the historical chart for some wide ranges! Dry shippers are rockets when they do finally run. But they reflect the future of global commerce so things like those enormous raw imports by China bent reality way outaline for a while. Take something major like that to goose this puppy to that kind of run.
But it may do a tradeable move ahead being mega year lows. Once out of station hard one to get a ticket which will be the tell vs just a bull trap.
Baltic resolves issues posed by capesize vessel change
Changes in the capesize fleet profile have led the Baltic Exchange to announce that it will cease panel based reporting of its 172,000 dwt 4 Timecharter Average (172 4TC) data from 31 July 2015
http://www.balticexchange.com/news/press-announcements/article/baltic-resolves-issues-posed-by-capesize-vessel-change/3311/
New highs for the Baltic Dry Index
Odd that some of places that used to post BDI daily in pre market have stopped doing it past 2 weeks as run up began!?
Jul 21 2015, 11:00 ET | By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor
The Baltic Dry Index rose 4.3% to 1,113 with gains registering for capesize, panamax, and supramax rates.The BDI has doubled since February when a weak market prompted some companies to scrap ships. Shipping rates are still well-below the level from late 2013 to late 2014.The Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA +1.3%) tracks the Delta Global Shipping Index which correlates only loosely with the BDI.Related stocks: DRYS, DSX, FREE, EGLE, NM, NMM, SBLK, BALT, SHIP, GSL, PRGN.
Vegas, Baby!
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21657799-recovering-las-vegas-colourful-microcosm-america-viva-again?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/VivaAgain
Las Vegas’s recovery, like America’s, seems to have to come to the wealthiest first. The new houses being built, such as those at Ascaya, are mostly targeted at the wealthy; many of the poor still remain underwater. The same is true of the city’s main industry: smaller, less modern casinos, which do not have the money to invest in redevelopment, will continue to die, as their older patrons wither away and are not replaced by newer, younger gamblers. Even as the recovery grows, gambling jobs will not return to the generous salaries that they used to pay for a long time, nor will the same profits be made flipping houses or putting up new casinos. The city’s frenetic pace of growth will probably never reach its pre-crisis peak.
But Sin City’s recovery shows the enduring ability of America to make improbable ideas work. Some 2m people live in a glittering, sprawling city deep in the desert and hardly think that this is strange. And with its mix of tech-obsessed yuppies, ageing baby-boomer gamblers and thrusting Hispanics, its demography resembles America’s future. That future might not be as bright as it seemed a decade ago, but it is a little more stable. Perhaps what happens in Las Vegas, far from staying there, spreads to the rest of America.
How IBM's Earnings Can Look Like a Miss -- Market Talk
2323 GMT [Dow Jones] IBM reported adjusted earnings of $3.84 per share Monday. That's better than the $3.78 that analysts had been expecting, so why was the company's stock down 5% after hours? The company slightly missed its expected revenue number. But according to Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi , IBM also surprised investors with two new items that hadn't been factored into earnings expectations. The first was a lower-than-expected tax bill; the second, lower-than-expected restructuring costs. Together these unexpected improvements added about 20 cents to IBM's earnings, Mr. Sacconaghi estimated. "If you subtract that out, it was an EPS miss," he said. [Robert.mcmillan@wsj.com @ bobmcmillan]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-20-15 1923ET
Beijing plans size of Kansas, 6x NYC, 1/3 US
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/20/world/asia/in-china-a-supercity-rises-around-beijing.html?emc=edit_th_20150720&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=16092731&_r=0
For decades, China’s government has tried to limit the size of Beijing, the capital, through draconian residency permits. Now, the government has embarked on an ambitious plan to make Beijing the center of a new supercity of 130 million people.
The planned megalopolis, a metropolitan area that would be about six times the size of New York’s, is meant to revamp northern China’s economy and become a laboratory for modern urban growth.
“The supercity is the vanguard of economic reform,” said Liu Gang, a professor at Nankai University in Tianjin who advises local governments on regional development. “It reflects the senior leadership’s views on the need for integration, innovation and environmental protection.”
The new region will link the research facilities and creative culture of Beijing with the economic muscle of the port city of Tianjin and the hinterlands of Hebei Province, forcing areas that have never cooperated to work together.
This month, the Beijing city government announced its part of the plan, vowing to move much of its bureaucracy, as well as factories and hospitals, to the hinterlands in an effort to offset the city’s strict residency limits, easing congestion, and to spread good-paying jobs into less-developed areas.
Jing-Jin-Ji, as the region is called (“Jing” for Beijing, “Jin” for Tianjin and “Ji,” the traditional name for Hebei Province), is meant to help the area catch up to China’s more prosperous economic belts: the Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai and Nanjing in central China, and the Pearl River Delta around Guangzhou and Shenzhen in southern China.
But the new supercity is intended to be different in scope and conception. It would be spread over 82,000 square miles, about the size of Kansas, and hold a population larger than a third of the United States. And unlike metro areas that have grown up organically, Jing-Jin-Ji would be a very deliberate creation. Its centerpiece: a huge expansion of high-speed rail to bring the major cities within an hour’s commute of each other.
S. Winick pleaded guilty wire fraud Friday Brooklyn
lost link due to Chrome crashing still finding it. google has lot links. this one has photo of the slime worm facing max 20 yr in big house, lol. His girl moll pled out as did others.
SW was unlucky #7 to go down.
The FBI says Sandy Winick, 57, pleaded guilty on Friday at the federal courthouse in Brooklyn and faces a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.
An FBI news release says Winick was the leader of a multimillion-dollar scheme that used call centres around the world to defraud victims.
http://www.thespec.com/news-story/5740732-stoney-creek-stock-fraud-kingpin-pleads-guilty-in-new-york/
--------------------------------
A Canadian man pleaded guilty on Friday to running an international boiler room scheme in a case that stemmed from one of the largest penny stock investigations in U.S. history, according to federal prosecutors.
Sandy Winick, 57, pleaded guilty to conspiring to commit wire fraud for running a $5 million scheme in which investors in U.S. penny stocks were duped into paying fees for nonexistent services, prosecutors in Brooklyn, New York, said on Friday.
Winick had also been charged with masterminding a $140 million “pump-and-dump” fraud in which he allegedly inflated the price of worthless penny stocks and then dumped billions of shares on investors in nearly three dozen countries.
His guilty plea in Brooklyn federal court was directly related only to the fee fraud, which stemmed from the pump-and-dump scheme and involved many of the same investors, prosecutors said. The plea resolves the criminal prosecution against him.
All told, nine defendants were charged with participating in one or both schemes; seven have pleaded guilty thus far.
The fee scheme involved boiler rooms in four countries, where the defendants called penny stock investors and convinced them to pay advance fees that the defendants promised would allow them to sell their shares and recover any losses, prosecutors said.
Instead, the fees were simply pocketed, prosecutors said.
Local authorities in Thailand arrested Winick there in 2013 and he was extradited to the United States. He faces up to 20 years in prison when he is sentenced.
His defense lawyer did not respond to a request for comment on Friday afternoon.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Editing by David Gregorio)
Little bits of internal US sales data
fwiw Portugal bonds went wide following Greek concern spillover.
07:48 News Bot: US Chain Store Sales (Jul 11) W/W -1.00 (Prev. 2.10)
07:48 News Bot: US Chain Store Sales (Jul 11) Y/Y 1.90 (Prev. 3.00)
07:48 News Bot: IMF say Greece's need for debt relief is `far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider`
08:00 News Bot: Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 EPS USD 1.03 vs. Exp. USD 1.03
08:01 News Bot: US NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jun) M/M 94.1 vs. Exp. 98.5 (Prev. 98.3)
MW Eurogroup ends meeting with no agreement, will reconvene Sunday
Eurozone's finance ministers ended a marathon session with no agreement on Greece's latest reform proposal late Saturday night, ahead of Sunday's summit of Eurozone's leaders. The major point of resistance came from Finland , whose government appeared unwilling to support any new bailout funding for Greece , according to reports from the Finnish media. The Eurogroup of finance ministers failed to even to put together a common statement, and was considering, according to Italian newspaper La Stampa, drafting two options - one with the Finns and one without. On Sunday, the Finnish government would either yield to the eurozone's pressure and agree to a Greek bailout or a specific European Stability Mechanism emergency clause could be activated, which enables the ESM to grant financial assistance with only 85% of the votes. Finnish newspaper Kauppalehti also reported a third scenario, namely that the Finnish coalition government led by the right-wing True Finns party could be broken up. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that Italy was ready to take a stance and demand that Germany hammer out an agreement with Greece . Earlier on Saturday, German media reported that Germany's finance ministry floated a document that outlined a temporary five-year Grexit from the euro, but not from the European Union . Eurozone leaders have demanded tougher reforms from Greece in exchange of what is now calculated at a potential new bailout of EUR74 billion ( $82.55 billion ).
-Ellie Ismailidou; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-11-15 1815ET
The Gang That Can't Kick Can Straight
Tsipras Riding High as He Attempts U-Turn -- Update
ATHENS -- Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is attempting a spectacular reversal, signing up to everything that Greeks voted "no" to in Sunday's referendum at his behest.
Whether the new tack works out well for him politically depended on limiting revolt inside his Syriza party, and in Parliament.
The Parliament early Saturday voted in favor of using his proposed economic overhauls and budget cuts as the basis for negotiations with lenders. Many of the opponents were from Syriza, but most of the party toed their leader's line.
His gamble to hold a referendum on creditors' bailout demands ended up uniting Greece's political parties behind a new overture to creditors, even as it surprised and enraged Europe and led to stifling capital controls in Greece . And his successful campaign for a landslide "no" vote boosted his popularity and his status as Greece's dominant political figure.
Paradoxically, that win gave Mr. Tsipras more authority to propose heavy austerity measures needed to stave off national bankruptcy, which previously he couldn't get his party to swallow.
Even if Greece's creditors--the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund --press Mr. Tsipras for additional measures, his hand has been strengthened against his coalition's own antiausterity hard-liners. During Friday's debate, fewer Syriza lawmakers than expected raised their voices against Mr. Tsipras's new concessions to lenders. Decisive votes on implementing any new bailout program still lie ahead, however.
"He is the undisputed leader in the party but it remains to be seen whether in the longer term there will be any challenge from the radical left," George Pagoulatos , professor of European politics and economy at the Athens University of Economics and Business, said before Saturday's vote. "He can't be threatened right now."
Mr. Tsipras personally threw his weight behind the "no" vote that over 61% of Greeks backed. The referendum also claimed former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras , one of the highest-profile figures supporting a "yes" vote to creditors' terms, who on Sunday resigned as leader of the conservative New Democracy party.
Part of the risk Mr. Tsipras took in holding the referendum was that much of Europe saw it as a vote on whether Greece would leave the eurozone. After the "no" vote, calls for Greece's exit from the single currency grew louder in Berlin and other European capitals.
With Greek banks shut and the economy in free fall, Mr. Tsipras on Monday called a meeting of party leaders to discuss a way for Greece to move ahead. After seven hours, they agreed on a statement that, while short on policy substance, showed a rare unity.
"The referendum and the likelihood of Grexit helped get everyone to sit at the same table, and this is what boosted Mr. Tsipras," said Athanassios Platias , director of graduate studies at the Department of International and European Studies at the University of Piraeus .
"We saw this week a redistribution of political powers, with Mr. Samaras stepping down," added Mr. Platias.
Faced with a fresh deadline from creditors to assemble credible overhauls, Mr. Tsipras and his team made new proposals, including changes to Greece's value-added tax system and a remake of pensions--measures that Syriza couldn't stomach previously.
As a first litmus test, Syriza on Friday called a meeting of parliamentary members to debate the reforms. The majority of lawmakers appeared to be in line with their leader. Panagiotis Lafazanis , who heads Syriza's hard-line left faction, was among the few to express strong disagreement with the proposal, saying it wasn't in line with the party's electoral program.
But other comments from party lawmakers indicated that even most hard-line members, representing about a third of Syriza members of parliament, would stay on board, at least for now, and acknowledge that Greece has no Plan B.
"We cannot handle a 'Grexit' right now, but we must prepare for that because we will have to deal with it in the future," Costas Lapavitsas, a hard-line member of parliament, said during a parliamentary committee meeting, according to government officials.
Write to Stelios Bouras at stelios.bouras@wsj.com and Nektaria Stamouli at nektaria.stamouli@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-10-15 2129ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
And I'm sure SEC MJO be looking into it, lol
Mary Jo White Responds to Sen. Warren Criticisms of SEC
WASHINGTON--One month ago, Sen. Elizabeth Warren laid into Mary Jo White's running of the Securities and Exchange Commission . On Friday, Ms. White punched back.
In a letter to Ms. Warren released Friday, Ms. White denied the agency had been soft in punishing wrongdoers, saying the commission brought a record number of enforcement cases--as well as a record amount of fines--in the most recently completed fiscal year.
She also defended the agency's work completing new rules developed in response to the financial crisis, such as tighter restrictions on money-market mutual funds that had stymied the agency for years.
"I am proud of the agency's many important accomplishments during my tenure as SEC chair," Ms. White wrote.
The letter comes a month after Ms. Warren said the SEC chairman's tenure has been "extremely disappointing" and that Ms. White appeared to have offered her "misleading" information about the completion of a long-delayed corporate governance rule at a face-to-face meeting in May.
"I am disappointed that you have not been the strong leader that many hoped for and that you promised to be," Ms. Warren said in her own 13-page letter to Ms. White last month.
Ms. Warren, a former Harvard law professor, is a member of the Senate Banking Committee , which has oversight over financial regulators, including the SEC . She has repeatedly rebuked regulators for not being tougher on big financial institutions in the years since the 2008 crisis. A spokeswoman for the Massachusetts Democrat confirmed receipt of the letter but declined to comment, saying Ms. Warren's and her staff were reviewing it.
The dispute between Sen. Warren and Ms. White comes as partisan fractures at the commission have stalled Ms. White's agenda. In 2014, Ms. White's first full year at the helm, the agency voted to complete seven rules, compared with an average of nearly 17 each year in the preceding decade. That has opened Ms. White to criticism over her leadership, particularly from Senate lawmakers who say postcrisis rules are advancing too slowly.
Among Ms. Warren's top concerns is a long-delayed executive-compensation rule mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank law requiring that companies disclose the pay gap between chief executives and their employees. The agency proposed the rule in 2013 but has yet to complete it.
Though the SEC has recently reported that it now expects to complete the rule by April 2016 , Ms. Warren said that deadline--disclosed in a list of agency projects published by an arm of the White House --appears to contradict what Ms. White said in the May meeting. In that meeting, the SEC chairman predicted the SEC would complete the rule "by fall."
On Friday, Ms. White denied she mislead Ms. Warren on the timing for completing the rule, saying "the information I provided to you on May 20 was, and is, accurate."
"If asked, we would have explained that, recognizing the need for flexibility, we include in the agenda dates one year out for nearly all rules that we anticipate we may advance at various times during the coming year," she wrote.
Ms. White also challenged criticism that she failed to secure admissions of wrongdoing in a greater number of fraud settlements, and over conflicts of interest tied to her prior legal work--and her husband's existing work--that have led to her recusal from certain enforcement and other matters appearing before the commission.
"Our record implementing the new admissions policy has been strong and the protocol continues to evolve and grow," Ms. White said, adding that she participated in more enforcement matters than any of the other commissioners during her first full year as chairman.
Write to Andrew Ackerman at andrew.ackerman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-10-15 1953ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
TDA TOS had routing issues am/day
This is timestamped 1812ET but retail traders were saying delay issues most of the day.
Ameritrade Had Order Routing, Messaging Problems -- 2nd Update
Some TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. customers experienced delays in placing orders Friday morning due to a software glitch, the brokerage said.
The brokerage experienced an order-routing and messaging issue around 9:30 a.m. EDT on one of its trading platforms for retail customers. The problem was resolved about 30 minutes later, around 10 a.m. , a TD Ameritrade spokeswoman said.
The issue was related to an overnight software update and affected retail customers who used a trading platform called thinkorswim, said the spokeswoman. Two days earlier, the New York Stock Exchange had a nearly four-hour outage that was also related to a software update.
Thinkorswim users typically trade a variety of securities, including equities, options and futures. The issue wasn't limited to a specific security type. On Friday morning, client orders were routed successfully to the brokerage firm's various market centers but the glitch caused delays in completing the transactions.
TD Ameritrade said the software update was part of a regular release and that it was continuing to investigate the cause of the issue.
Joe Uelk , a 42-year-old former computer engineer who now trades full time, said he tried to sell some futures tied to the S&P 500 index shortly after the opening bell. When the Dallas native tried to close his position, his order didn't go through, he said.
"It's frustrating because you see the market going down, down, down and you can't do anything about it," said Mr. Uelk. TD Ameritrade later reversed some of his trades so that he didn't lose money.
A TD Ameritrade spokeswoman said the firm works with clients individually to help resolve issues when such events happen.
NYSE , a unit of Intercontinental Exchange Inc. , said Thursday that traders began having communications problems Wednesday morning related to a software update made to one part of the system that matches buyers and sellers. When errors persisted, NYSE President Thomas Farley suspended trading.
No NYSE trades were canceled and there was no disruption to the actual trading, which carried on at other exchanges throughout the period, but the outage underscored the fragility of the systems that underpin the capital markets.
Write to Daniel Huang at dan.huang@wsj.com
Access Investor Kit for TD Ameritrade Holding Corp.
Visit http://www.companyspotlight.com/partner?cp_code=P479?=US87236Y1082
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-10-15 1812ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
BLDP tanky Motley Fool piece -20%
Tumble again today. Might be day trader pop is all.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/07/ballard-power-dilutes-should-you-give-a-hoot.aspx?source=eptadnlnk0000002
China stk mkt weighing hard
07:55 AM EDT, 07/08/2015 (MT Newswires) -- U.S. stock futures were lower on Wednesday as investors focused on the panic that seemed to be spreading in the Chinese stock market with more and more companies halting their stocks to stem the sell-off.
Meanwhile, European creditors set a deadline for Sunday to reach a deal with Greece and also asked Greece to present detailed reform plans. The country has reportedly asked for a three-year bailout program. The sentiment was slightly more optimistic that a deal can be reached that would stop the country from having to exit the monetary union.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee's meeting in mid-June will be released at 2:00 p.m. E.T.
In equities, shares of aluminum producer Alcoa (AA) were lower 1% in recent pre-market trade. The company unofficially kicks of the reporting season with Q2 results after the close of U.S. markets on Wednesday.
http://www.mtnewswires.com Copyright © 2015 MTNewswires. All rights reserved. MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
Piece on GREK & how foreign ETF works
While The Athens Exchange Is Closed, The Greece ETF Show Goes On
Jul. 7, 2015 8:08 PM ET | About: Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK), Includes: EGPT
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3309805-while-the-athens-exchange-is-closed-the-greece-etf-show-goes-on
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Summary
•Investors can still trade Greece through an ETF while Athens Stock Exchange was closed.
•GREK showing larger discount to net asset value.
•Investors should understand risks of ETFs that track international markets.
Exchange traded funds try to reflect the performance of an underlying market. However, there are times when an ETF may diverge from the net asset value, especially with international markets.
For example, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEArca: GREK) is was trading at a 10.4% discount to its NAV on Monday, according to Morningstar data.
GREK plunged 8.9% Monday on over four times its average daily volume after Greece rejected austerity measures demanded by international creditors in a referendum vote over the weekend. The Greece ETF has been swinging in volatile trading over the past week.
ETFs, more or less, consistently reflect the movement of their net asset value, or combined value of all securities in an ETF's portfolio divided by the number of ETF shares outstanding, as market makers or authorized participants create or redeem ETF shares by buying or selling baskets of underlying securities for ETFs.
Since ETFs trade like any other stock on an exchange, the ETF's price can fluctuate throughout the day. ETFs typically update their underlying trading value, calculating the approximate NAV every 15 seconds throughout the trading day.
In domestic equity ETFs, the NAV works as intended. The NAV provides a fair value of the ETF, which basically means the fund is trading in line with its underlying assets with little or no tracking error. This also allows investors to get a better view of whether or not they are over or underpaying an ETF.
When the ETF's price is lower than the NAV, the ETF is said to be at a "discount" - the ETF is valued less than the fund's overall holdings. If the ETF's price is above the NAV, the ETF is said to trade at a "premium" - the ETF is trading higher than what the underlying holdings are worth.
However, the NAV gets cloudier when looking into other markets. For instance, international markets are not open in the same time zone as U.S. markets, but foreign stock and bond ETFs are still trading on U.S. exchanges. Since the NAV is taken based on the last price at which it was traded, the NAV may not move during normal hours. Consequently, the NAV for international ETFs, along with most commodity and fixed-income funds, may represent a stale number as these markets don't necessarily trade during normal U.S. market hours.
In the case of Greece, the Athens Stock Exchange has been closed for at least a week, following the June 28 decision by the Systemic Stability Council for a week-long closure of the country's banks and local stock market, according to ekathimerini. The Greek bourse remains closed Monday.
Consequently, the traded value of GREK has deviated considerably from its NAV - the ETF is currently trading at a much lower value to its constituents due to the underlying market closure. The last time something similar occurred was during the so-called Arab Spring of 2011 when Egyptian markets were shut down for two months, but U.S. investors were still able to trade shares of the Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSEArca: EGPT).
Nevertheless, GREK ETF investors may still get a general sense of where the ETF is going through indirect means. For instance, Coca-Cola HBC, which makes up 21.4% of GREK, dipped 3.9% over the past week while the National Bank of Greece (NYSE:NBG), which makes up 9.5% of GREK, saw the value of its American Depository Receipts pare recent gains to fall flat for the week.
Max Chen contributed to this article.
USO hits 17. S&P <200dma
S&P 500 index has just gone through its 200 DMA which resides at 2055.30
10:30 DAILY FX WRAP: USD strength dominates major pairs while the Greece situation appears no closer to a resolution and fears of a slump in China see weakness in commodities
Today has been a day of USD strength, with the DXY spending the session firmly in the green and making a break above the 100DMA at 96.31. The USD was bolstered early in the session by EUR weakness, with participants remaining uncertain as to the future of the single currency as the threat of a Grexit continues to loom. EUR weakness was seen as European traders came to their desk and reacted to last night’s decision by the ECB to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for the ELA. The saga continued today with source comments initially suggesting that a proposal was not going to be provided to the Eurogroup today, with later sources noting that an oral presentation was given, with the written proposal to be provided tomorrow.
Away from Brussels and the lack of a Greek deal, USD was further supported by this afternoons US data, with Trade Balance showing a smaller than anticipated deficit (-41.87bln vs. Exp. -42.70bln) and market participants looking ahead to tomorrow’s Fed minutes release, with focus to be on the debate surrounding the timing of rate lift-off. Of note, Bank of America analysts note that short USD positioning by HF and RM accounts is close to matching last years highs, highlighting the scope for long USD positions to increase.
Finally, commodity currencies were also seen weaker across the board with the focus on the growing concerns over the economic slowdown in China, as the PBoC and other regulatory bodies continue to try to prop-up the stock market. This has seen Palladium, platinum, copper and iron ore all trade at multi-month lows, with WTI yesterday seeing its largest drop since February and Brent and WTI crude futures residing below the USD 56.00 and USD 51.00 handles respectively.
Looking ahead, tomorrow sees a light calendar in terms of data, with the aforementioned FOMC minutes and ongoing Greek situation likely to remain in the spotlight. Also of note, comments are expected from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Nowotny, Noyer and Coeure as well as UK Chancellor Osborne’s Budget Statement.
JOLTS & IBD lower
UNITED STATES MAY JOLTS JOB OPENINGS DECREASE TO +5.363 MLN (FCAST 5.350 MLN) VS PREV 5.376 MLN
10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jul) M/M 48.1 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.1)
UGAZ lows 1.90 -.10 em
Precious LT lows & GS cuts GDP Q2
DWTI raging $95.
09:40 London PM Platinum Fix USD 1,046.00 (AM USD 1,058.00); Palladium Fix USD 661.00 (AM USD 679.00)
09:40 Goldman Sachs have lowered their US Q2 GDP forecast to 3.1% (Prev. 3.2%)
- The lowering of forecast has been attributed to the composition of today's Trade Balance data.
US first trade surplus w/ Canada since 1990
Canadian International Merchandise Trade (May) M/M -3.34bln vs. Exp. -2.55bln (Prev. -2.97bln, Rev. -2.99bln)
By Jeffry Bartash , MarketWatch 9:08am ET
Overall deficit rises 2.9% in May to $41.9 billion
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. ran a trade surplus with Canada in May for the first time since 1990, the result of a stronger dollar and less demand for foreign petroleum amid an explosion in domestic oil production.
Despite the positive balance with Canada , the largest trading partner of the U.S., the nation's trade deficit rose 2.9% in May, mostly because the U.S. exported fewer aircraft and other manufactured goods.
The trade gap climbed to a seasonally adjusted $41.9 billion from a revised $40.7 billion in April, the government said Tuesday.
The strong dollar allows the U.S. to buy foreign oil at cheaper prices, but it's also hurt exports of American-made goods and services in key markets such as China and Europe whose economies are encountering fresh headwinds.
Exports dropped 0.8% in May to $188.6 billion and they are down 2.7% in the first five months of 2015 compared to the same period a year earlier.
Meanwhile, imports slid 0.1% in May to $230.5 billion . The U.S. imported a record $29.5 billion in autos and parts, reflecting a post-recession surge in sales of cars and trucks.
Yet imports of commercial airplanes, a volatile category that can swing sharply month to month, and other industrial goods fell in May. U.S. energy producers in particular slashed purchases of drilling and other equipment to offset the big drop in oil prices.
In May, the U.S. petroleum "gap" fell to the lowest level since 2002. The gap has been falling for several years as fracking unlocks vast deposits of previously unreachable fossil fuels, reducing the nation's need for foreign oil.
The trade deficit has averaged a smaller $41.3 billion in the first two months of the second quarter, compared to a $43.4 billion average in the first quarter. If the June deficit falls in line, trade is unlikely to be a big drag on U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter like it was in the first three months of the year, when the economy contracted.
Gross domestic product -- the value of everything an economy produces -- is higher when the trade deficit is lower. A country that produces more goods and services at home than it buys from other countries employs more workers and generates more profits.
- Jeffry Bartash ; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-07-15 0907ET
Gen deep @80% Greeks <34 voted No
Looks pretty deep & longlasting.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/06/eurozone-struggles-joint-response-greek-referendum?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
The detail of Sunday’s voting patterns left no doubt about the devastating verdict and the challenges it now presents to Europe’s leaders. Around 80% of voters under the age of 34 voted no on Sunday.
-----------------
01:24 DAILY EUROPEAN OPENING NEWS: The latest source comments reveal the ECB increased haircuts on Greek collateral for ELA to 45% and refused a request for an increase in the ELA
Labor market conditions soft +.8 June
Missed this at 10am Econoday.com
Highlights Prior was 1.3
Growth in the nation's labor market remains subdued with the labor market conditions index at plus 0.8 in June vs a revised plus 0.9 in May. The reading is barely over zero and underscores last week's soft employment report. The Fed won't be any hurry to begin raising its overnight policy rate based on June's employment data.
Greek ‘No’ Vote Isn’t Priced In, Wilbur Ross Says
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/07/05/greece-no-vote-isnt-priced-in-wilbur-ross-says/tab/print/
July 5, 2015, 9:52 P.M. ET
By Dimitra DeFotis
Wilbur Ross, who bet big on Greek bank Eurobank Ergasias (EGFEY), thinks Greece won’t get austerity relief, but could negotiate debt forgiveness or longer maturities and better rates on its loans.
Getty ImagesGreek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras speaks after casting his referendum vote July 5 in an Athens suburb.
With 61% of Greek referendum votes cast Sunday against the Eurogroup’s latest bailout offer, Ross said he expects market volatility, and added in a Bloomberg interview that markets have not priced in the “No” vote. Ross is well known for investing in distressed assets, and is one in a group that invested 1.3 billion euros ($1.43 billion) into Eurobank Ergasias last year, according to CNBC.
Ross may be optimistic, but he has already endured a 77% decline in Eurobank Ergasias shares over the past 12 months. Shares of Eurobank Ergasias and two other Greek banks, Alpha Bank (ALBKY) and Piraeus Bank (BPIRY), were halted last week in U.S. trading; those stocks trade over the counter. Shares of National Bank of Greece (NBG) are more liquid; that stock is down 37% this year and down 71% over the past 12 months, while the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK) is down 19% this year, and down 54% over the past year.
Ross said Greece has too many pensioners, not enough tax collection and other financial woes that mean it won’t get relief from creditor austerity demands. But he underscored that Greeks don’t want to leave the European Union. He pointed to the need for immediate cash to shore up banks.
“Greece cannot compete in the world if the government spends more than it takes in,” Ross said.
Here are more excerpts from Ross’ Bloomberg interview:
On Grexit: “The Greek people don’t want to leave the EU — they want to stay and get debt relief, and severely needed cash right away. The lack of liquidity is bringing the Greek economy to a halt. There is a very short time window if a deal is going to be made.
What is the investing opportunity? “Futures in western and Asian markets are down. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a bumpy day Monday. People, like I did, thought there was a possibility of a yes vote.” Markets have not priced in a no vote, he said. “But the question now is, what will Tsipras do next? If he is reasonable, he could have a deal quickly. He promised voters a deal 48 hours after the referendum.”
Speaking late Sunday, Eurozone finance ministers’ group President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said the referendum outcome is “very regrettable for the future of Greece.” He added that a Greek economic recovery requires reforms and that creditors will wait “for the initiatives of the Greek authorities,” the Associated Press reports. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was expected to zip off to Brussels, and said the referendum boosted his negotiating power with Eurozone creditors.
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