alive and kicking
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Hey rock mountain, you hit the nail on the head.
Looking at Q4 22 and Q1 23 numbers, I expect max M 40 for RHA and M 22 for Daxxi for Q2 23. So if Q2 sales exceed M 65, I would be very happy.
- Q2 total revenue of $58.1 million, a YoY increase of 104.9%.
- Q2 RHA® Collection revenue of $31.8 million, a YoY increase of 24.7%.
- Q2 DAXXIFY® revenue of $22.6 million, a QoQ increase of 47.1%.
- Bolstered financial position with $100 million net proceeds from ATM program and $50 million in notes available to be issued through Athyrium Capital on or before August 31, 2023.
- PDUFA date of August 19, 2023 for DAXXIFY® for the treatment of cervical dystonia.
Anyone who thinks they can enter a chat area and effect the price of any security one iota is just delusional.
The new boosters (based off XBB.1.5) should have decent efficacy against Eris (at least vs severe disease), because there are only 2 new mutations in Eris vs this variant. However the new boosters now apparently won't be available until October. The current (bivalent) iteration of the booster, based on the BA.5 variant, has far less homology w Eris, with a whopping 15 new mutations in Eris vs BA.5.
This info is from Eric Topol's twitter account:
Eris is one of several closely-related Omicron subvariants that have been competing for dominance in recent months. All of these variants are descendants of the XBB strain, which is the target of this fall's COVID shots.
Ed, you need to back away as you are getting too emotional.
The analyst downgrades aren't surprising but they really don't matter. ENTA has stated all along that they will not put EDP-235 into phase 3 trials on their own forward alone, but rather they will partner. The analyst downgrades mention it as if it is a new development that means ENTA has no faith in EDP-235. It is laughable.
If you notice, analysts don't talk about the SPRINT data which showed very good efficacy by EDP-235, better than Paxlovid in the low risk patient population.
ABBV is clearly interested in Covid anti-virals as they just put one into a phase 1 trial. Unlike Jake, ABBV feels there is need for more Covid anti-virals and know such drugs will require phase 3 trials down the road. In my view ABBV remains a good candidate for a partnership for EDP-235.
Paxlovid requires a drug pump inhibitor and that is a real negative in high risk patients as they are usually taking one or more other drugs. The high number of pills per day (~30) is also a negative for Paxlovid. EDP-235 showed superior efficacy as compared to Paxlovid as EDP-235 showed a statistically significant reduction in symptoms its phase 2 trial in healthy low risk patients whereas Paxlovid failed to do so.
Which company do you think would be the partner for SPRINT? Was there any discussion on it? I mean, I could not find it yet.
And what is the most important factor to substitute Paxlovid when it is approved? I guess it would be the absence of ritonavir. Do you agree with this?
By the looks of the data, it doesn't show strong potency compared to Paxlovid.
Assets get mispriced all the time. In the long run Jay will be proven right and Jake will be proven wrong. I also said that I believe there is a gulf between what Jay knows the EDP-235 (and access to their follow-on compound) is worth, vs what the market and less informed participants like Jake think it's worth. Jay is not going to screw-over ENTA shareholders by accepting a lowball price.
Nobody knows nothing or cares to speculate, for fear of being wrong. This board can be summed up as the following:
Only a fool would make predictions—especially about the future :)
I am more disappointed by the closure of the EUA route for EDP-235 as a patient than an investor.
Enanta expects that its current cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and its continuing portion of cash from future royalty revenue, should be sufficient to meet the anticipated cash requirements of its existing business and development programs into the second half of fiscal 2027.
I never expected IMGN would drop so much so quickly on zero moves so I bought more this morning at $14.40.
Doc328,
Thanks for your knowledgable first-hand comments. They reinforce my view that the Q2 numbers aren't that important. What matters is how Daxxify will be taken up with time, and how approval in the CD indication affects uptake in that market.
Given the numbers you cited, does that mean your practice overall isn't very dependent on toxins for patient population and revenues?
And who did the R&D?
At this early point 50% are happy and 50% have a frown line. Over time the pnjectors should get a better handle on it.
The pumping of Daxify's claims might have put the patients expectations too high.
I'm sure there are many other reviews but I would guess the opinion is 50/50 at this point.
Dewophile, I agree with your comments. It does seem insensitive if not callous to just dismiss the possibility of twice the duration have value to a patient. A caring physician might investigate a bit and tell patients about a potential/likely longer lasting treatment and ask if they were interested.
Just some rotation.
Hi Vin,
Thanks sir, appreciate the comments.
U.S. Treasuries with maturities between 1 month and 18 months are yielding anywhere between 5% and 5.5%. They can be bought with any online broker and can be sold just as easily as bought....... Last, U.S. treasuries are exempt from state and local income tax (CD's are not).
Why do a CD vs. Treasuries? Higher yield with Treasuries and more tax friendly versus a CD. Can also easily trade out of Treasuries.
Buying a short term asset that yields over 5%, has that kind of safety, and is nearly the equivalent of cash is always worth considering in this market.
Calling that a failure only demonstrates your ignorance and willingness to spout nonsense.
Joe, not a funny money bet with me. I believe in the future of the company and have invested exactly $275,400 YTD. Presently underwater and not the least concerned.
I’m just not sure where SGEN trades if the deal doesn’t go through. It’s a tempting arb play for sure and I don’t blame you for holding onto your shares
the spread between current price and buyout remains substantial for anyone looking to play this as an arbitrage opportunity. I would be tempted except for the risk to Adcetris from the front line PD-1 HL trial - that data came in better than I expected and I could see it pressuring Adcetris soon.
I do think the deal ultimately closes, and I really think we will know if it was a good deal for PFE once the lung cancer drug entering phase 3 (I forget the target) reads out.
Whether or not you go with the pro forma EV as used by Dew in prior posts, cash on hand is cash on hand. Discounted future revenues aren't cash until/unless they are sold.
The cash burn is high. If they did not have the revenue stream that they have, they would be trading well under cash - which you took pains to point out using a different perspective.
August is an important month for RVNC. Q2 earning will be next Tuesday after close and the PDUFA decision for Daxxify in CD is in less than 3 weeks.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/revance-release-second-quarter-2023-120000360.html
Adcetris and Padcev, SGEN’s two biggest products, each grew 30% YoY.
PFE and SGEN expect to close the merger in 2023 or early 2024.
I think right now ENTA is bullish on RSV and wants to maximize that opportunity, and the timing is more optimal to partner covid before RSV data is in hand, so I would far prefer a royalty structure and let the partner fund the trials. ENTA could get creative and have an opt in clause, but that is normally done after phase 2 before phase 3 so doubt that is a reality. To have zero up front would suck either way and I don't think ENTA would accept anything less than a minimum up front that covers the investment in the program to date, and even that would be quite disappointing
EXEL shows impressive revenue growth and finally shows some stock price appreciation.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/08/02/exelixis-exel-q2-2023-earnings-call-transcript/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
There is a bullish spin to everything, lol.
Lots of good news and things to look forwards to in IMGN's earnings report.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q2-2023-immunogen-inc-earnings-061621019.html
The NIH is running trials to assess therapies that might help combat long Covid. I guess Jake should tell the NIH they don't know what they are doing.
The National Institutes of Health said Monday it launched mid-stage clinical trials to test at least four treatments, including Pfizer’s antiviral Covid-19 pill Paxlovid, as potential therapies for long Covid.
The NIH expects to launch additional clinical trials to test at least seven more treatments “in the coming months.”
The NIH is running trials to assess therapies that might help combat long Covid. I guess Jake should tell the NIH they don't know what they are doing.
The National Institutes of Health said Monday it launched mid-stage clinical trials to test at least four treatments, including Pfizer’s antiviral Covid-19 pill Paxlovid, as potential therapies for long Covid.
The NIH expects to launch additional clinical trials to test at least seven more treatments “in the coming months.”
I think a negative market reaction to the voluntary resignation of a senior member of the management team is reasonable. I mean sure this could be unrelated to the underlying business totally, but generally speaking you want to stay aboard a winner (and conversely leave a sinking ship)
That said the Q2 report does look good and this departure could be nothing w nothing and then this dip is just a blip
I don't think Jake realized that what he posted about ABBV was actually bullish for ENTA
Blowout earnings report today so things are looking up for IMGN investors no matter what the profit-takers are doing.
The market reaction often makes me laugh, but that is what makes market opportunities. IMGN sales of Elahere blew away expectations as sales estimates for Q2 were in the low $44 million but came in at $77 million. The Chief Medical Officer announced she was leaving so it looks like that is what the market focused on. I remain bullish.
https://investor.immunogen.com/news-releases/news-release-details/immunogen-reports-recent-progress-and-second-quarter-2023
ABBV-903 is a different anti-Covid drug that has only been tested in a 24 patient phase I safety trial. It has been listed as a protease inhibitor. If ABBV is showing interest in protease inhibitors, then EDP-235 remains a potential partner.
The previous links you provided were all about an antibody ABBV-47D11, which is infused for treatment of Covid. In that very small phase I trial, most patients were already hospitalized and looking at the data, there was not a dose dependence to anti-viral effects. In any event, it is a distinct patient population than either Paxlovid or EDP-235. In my view, ABBV is still a potential partner for ENTA .
As far as ABBV-744, it is different drug than first announced in 2020 as a possible protease inhibitor. That was when companies were throwing everything against the wall to see what would stick to combat the pandemic. As far as I can see, ABBV-744 appears dead in the water as an anti-Covid drug as I can find nothing since that initial report you cited ~3 years ago.