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Thanks, Joe! A lot for me to look at there.
Re: Housing Data
I don't know a site that gives data for interest-only loans but for other housing-related info I've found the following site useful:
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/
The site is heavy on Texas data - that's OK with me since that's where I live.
But it would be great to have a source with greater depth nation-wide (and even loan info) - perhaps someone will be kind enough to post one.
RUT at key support.
The gap beckons....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[r,a]gacayyay[d10][pi!f][vc60][iut!ub7!li10,10!lh...
iblayz, amen to everything you said!
The following convinced me that the RE market has topped
(a topping indicator from a topless person, no less):
Everybody's an Investor Now
With Home Prices Rising, Investors Play a Risky Game of Anticipation
By Daniela Deane
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, May 21, 2005; Page F01
It feels as if Playboy's Playmate of the Month for May is speaking for the entire country.
Fort Lauderdale native Jamie Westenhiser, 23, told the magazine recently that she is ditching her modeling career to take up real estate investing.
In the magazine's May issue, Westenhiser poses in her lacy lavender baby doll, wearing nothing else except furry boots, leaning on a computer desk next to a stack of books with titles including "All About Escrow" and "Real Estate Principles." In her "playmate data sheet," she writes that her ambition in life is to have a "successful career in real estate."
---------------
The rest of the article may be found at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/20/AR2005052000576.html
no problem, ajtj, it was just a wee bit of humor.
ajtj, as much as I appreciate your charts (and those of others on this board) I think these guys do a better job of chart watching:
http://www.andyfoulds.co.uk/amusement/economists.htm
Wireless Mice?
Does anyone have any suggestions for wireless mice to use with my Dell 700m laptop?
hey ajtj, what about the triple bottom on the RUT @ 604? Makes me think the down is not done, and the RUT will fall in a deeper rut.
ajtj, count me as interested too. And if you happen to have any thoughts on the future direction of the RUT I'm all ears, too, since I'm mainly a small cap kind of guy. -hiker
I want to buy a laptop to take with me on the road. I'll be using it to run models related to my swing trading system, but it would also be nice to be able to pop in a DVD on a long flight. I also prefer a lighter weight model (emphasis on mobility rather than a full-fledged desktop replacement).
So my initial take is that I need a decent processor (along the lines of a P4, not a celeron) 0.5M memory, 30Mb+ hard drive and a combo CD/DVD drive in a configuration that weighs in around 5 lbs.
I'm also cheap so I'm considering buying a refurbed unit. One that I've been looking at is a Dell 600m which I can get for under a kilobuck.
Any comments or suggestion regarding my search are welcomed, including other notebooks to consider, places to get good deals, the wisdom of buying refurbed units, etc.
George, for best CD rates try this:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/rate/high_home.asp
Chutes 'n Ladders on the RUT:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[r,a]eacayyay[d126][pf][vc60][iut!ub7!li10,10!lh5...
Could there be a low near the end of November?
aj, the texts I've read describe Three White Soldiers as a reversal (not continuation) signal. Is there something I'm missing here?
OT: KCMW, I feel as you do - some great times, and I got to do some things I never would have dreamed of. I gotta admit, I had a nice run. I think there will be other areas for your kids to thrive in, but the sc industry has matured, and that means that the workers' value has less to do with their innovativeness and the ideas they contribute than how long and hard (and cheaply) they can work. And that's usually a prescription for an overseas job.
OT imo the entire semiconductor industry is the new auto industry
agree 100% I use exactly the same analogy
OT: WLD, what you describe about HP fits my experience at another hitech company - old culture displaced (actually laid off or retired) and new culture of we can fire you anytime taking its place. I disagree with you about these companies being in deep trouble, just think that this is a sign of the times - a maturing sc industry where many positions are just commoditized. Not a fun place to work anymore and I'm glad I'm out of it.
i still wish he had got his desire to be commissioner of Baseball.:)
Hey, what have you got against baseball? :))
By the way, today's update puts NJ back in the blue column. Also, interesting reading in his analysis:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
The guy at electoral vote.com will probably do a post-election pollster survey. But aside from the ones that are far off the mark (like Gallup), I think that many of the pollsters will be within their own margin of error of each other. A poll can only be so accurate, and this is a close race.
What gives me some hope for this election is that 1) Kerry seems to have mo, and 2) undecideds tend to break for the challenger (and Kerry is closer to Bush than Gore was back in 2000).
The wild card is how much more legal action (vote challenges, etc.) there will be this time.
Hopefully this election gives dubya a chance to take some of his own advice and go back to community college!
max, I think the fellow running tha site does a great job of trying to be fair but in doing so winds up including some pollsters (like that latest NJ one) that are clearly biased.
One thing that's become clear to me (from comparing pollsters) is what a joke Gallup has become. Yet that's the one used by a lot of big organizations like CNN, et. al.
Re: NJ, Sheesh, max, did you read what he said? Not to worry:
According to Strategic Vision (R), New Jersey is tied, but to correctly interpret a Strategic Vision poll, you have to subtract about 4% or 5% from Bush's score, so although I have included it on the map in my effort to bend over backwards to be impartial. New Jersey is really safe for Kerry and the map score should really be Kerry 258, Bush 280.
What I think is more telling is his predicted final results:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html
Is it my imagination or is an H&S forming on the 60 min RUT?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[r,a]eacayyay[d126][pd20,2!b50!b50!b84!b130!f][vc...
...not that H&S formations are terribly reliable anyway.
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Justa, all:
Norm (on Marketswing)is proposig a scenario that harkens to the '87 crash.
http://www.marketswing.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16168&postcount=16
(in particular look at the charts at the bottom)
Any thoughts on his take?
Zeev, given your February start for a Nassacre, when do you guess the bottom for that run will be reached?
I don't know who "Elder" is or what a "triple screen" is. However, if he developed it before 1986 I guess not...
according to this article, 1985:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/03/040903.asp
mainhiker, I guess I don't understand how living in a state implies that you are an expert on all the polls taken there. If you followed the link that I gave you in my last message you would have seen the source of the poll that gives Bush the lead. That does not mean you have to accept it as fact - I am myself suspicious of it, given the polling history in that state. But nonetheless that site does meticulously report all poll results, and IMHO in a very unbiased way.
Re: "...that electoral site is full of crap..."
mainehiker, the person who runs that site is extremely meticulous about reporting polls. If you look around his site you'll find the source for every piece of data for every state. Here's the polls (including sources and dates) taken for NJ:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-jersey.html
That does not mean each and every poll is "correct" - there are occasional outliers that he even comments on. But he is strictly honest about reporting them.
fed, someone is already keeping a daily count on polls, and doing a pretty good job at it:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
JW: Hey, I still appreciate your charts even if ajtj is being picky (gg).
By the way, do you have a take on the RUT?
n83, I never believed the 10+ point bounce - there just aren't enough undecideds to fuel that big of a gap up.
By the way, Bush's approval rating is starting to look like a bear flag (g/ng):
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/NEWBUSHINDEX_6098_image001.gif
OT: I think the polls matter only on a state-by-state basis. A site that seems to keep up with these on a daily basis is http://www.electoral-vote.com/
FWIW, I'm rooting for Bush to win the popular vote yet lose the electoral vote.
Bush comes clean about his intentions:
“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we,” Bush said. “They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.”
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5613296
Re: Louisiana congressman switches to GOP
I'll bet he sells his stocks at the bottom, too!
It's the Gas Price, Stupid
Electoral Map continually updated with latest state polls:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/