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What a post! A lot to ponder.
I have not visited CTIX HQ. Ok: I did mapquest and from my house to CTIX HQ 100 cumming center Beverly MA it's 25.7 miles suggested route. That is less than a marathon, right?
So why haven't I visited already? I mean look, it's ztang(any NASA connection??!? It's tang, right?) and it's youssef(all the way from the Cape- yes the cape traffic in the summer, that's ugly, right? I mean, ugly. That is one heroic trek.) and it's TOB. TOB folks. Front and center. Posting photos and going toe to toe with gumshoe(thank goodness) It's even non partisans, you know, the Boston Business Journal, hanging out in Cummings Center, writing it up, challenging the SCAM.
I mean, I claim to live in Boston, but what the hey? No sit down with Leo and Krishna? Nada? It is embarrassing to say the least. I have NO credibility, I mean, none. I have spent the last 3 week working every day, after a long vacation, and cannot afford a road trip.
(No road trip? You claim to live in Boston? You claim to be a doctor? You claim to be a shareholder? How do you sleep at night? What about the children?)
People are posting business cards, people are getting hats(hats, of all things. I mean, really) I own all these shares, so where's my hat? He had to say he got a hat, that just kills me.
Can I still go this week? Can I still do a first person visit and walk through? A meet and greet?
Shouldn't I just let them get back to work already? How many visitors could they possibly stand? Next, go ahead, send them in !!??!?! Imagine the tedium, another visitor, to refute the empty offices, to see the labs, to say it's real....
Would they like to visit me in Cambridge, maybe, instead? A glass of red or white in the back garden, some tomatoes and basil, all local, on good bread from Iggy's? I think I can offer something. Maybe they'd like to stay over? Would you like to hear about it?
Believe me, right after they come over I will provide a full update. After all, it's less than a Boston Marathon away from happening.
p53/Burkitt's Lymphoma/malaria article in Cell yest: an attempt to explain why so many B cell lymphomas in young patients in Africa
Theory that infection with strain of malaria causes proliferation of B lymphocytes, which produce an enzyme AID that help with antibody response. In mice without p53 mature B cell lymphomas typical of Burkitt's lymphoma developed in the face of malaria infections.
Cell 8/13 Nussenzweig
well stated. prev board discussion about early results release phase 1, with Memorial Sloan Kettering and Agios, with striking results of efficacy in a phase 1 trial
Of course agreed there are not many stage 4 thymoma pts in the world
Agreed(with sun spotter) that cherry picking from phase 1 is an iffy business. Agreed that CTIX was backed into a corner and wanted to say something that might not have been released at all otherwise.
But it remains intriguing nonetheless, and the question is an open one, who will benefit from K at more frequent dosing?
This is a billion dollar question, of interest for all shareholders, but more important is the issue of improving survival in cancer patients. Those of us who do not die of cardiovascular disease(MI/CHF/stroke) are likely to get some type of cancer sometime down the road.
Can CTIX top yesterday's thymoma release today? Slow details leaking about Kevetrin ...
A patient with a rare tumor is stabilized for a year with once a week of Kevetrin and the stock goes down?
Of course you want a CR, or, the most possible response. But you cannot always get what you want, as the song goes. These are patients that have failed other treatments.
If K at this dosing is helpful then what about 3x week or 5 x week?
Let's say still no better than stabilization- still means K can be tossed into the mix with other regimens.
Go look at the Aspire data on their p53 drug plus Cisplat for refractory ovarian CA- addition of their p53 drug made a big difference in the lab- who knows in patients.
K plus sunitinib for renal, K plus other for AML- that is the future. Or K plus immunotherapy, everybody's favorite new approach.(unless K really is an effective single agent for ovarain, we shall see)
You obv have some science knowledge. Sure, it may take years to play out; but this is still very good news
OK re-read 8/7
Very clear that he means K therapy for 11 months. This is SENSATIONAL news! Does not matter that it is a rare cancer. There are a zillion tumor types out there .
This is getting interesting!
Weirdest press release ever.
Has this patient received 11 months therapy with K alone? Or other drugs too? Can you tell? At work and cannot sort through it. If he has stable disease with almost a year of K then this really exciting. More than that, actually. It goes along with the 450 and less ovarian CA pts with stable disease for many months.
It begs the question : IF he can discuss this, then what about all the other patients? Just not enough info yet?
IF K starts showing responses in many tumor types- what we all hope for-then....get ready for take-off
Just today there is an article touting a new pancreatic CA therapy that shows 4.9 months of progression free survival. Yes I would hope for much more from K but as noted(over and over, I know) responses at low doses is surprising
It is amazing to think that patients treated with a drug with a 2 hour half life once weekly on 3 occasions would have any tumor stabilization, especially since those patients have already been through all the usual care with progression of disease
have not had the chance to look back over the ASCO report to see about the timing of doses but I would guess that there is at least a couple of 750 mg ovarian CA patients who have had 3 month scans, but maybe not 6 month scans
But I do not know
Do you know the cohort dates?
I could not agree more that some response at lower doses is EXCELLENT
So what is allowed? He can say 4 of 9 stabilized at doses 450 and less today, which is NEW info , just provided today(that is, unless it was lost on all of us, as Drano suggests, in all the drama. Just swept up in a sea storm about the shorts, and lost forever. That is, unless you are paying just the least bit of attention)
So he called DFC Shapiro yest eve and they said ok you can say a few extra words abut the low dose patients but nothing about 750 etc?
That may of course be true
So why not say just a little more today and crush the shorts?
oh yeah- I wanted massive data. Are you awake?
I would like one-two sentences, such as, The responses as documented by CT scans at higher doses, including 750 and 1000, showed tumor stabilization as well. We look forward to new regimens with multiple weekly dosing at the new higher levels.
Massive, right? Totally massive....
Reread my post: I am speculating as to why he provided no info about higher dose patients. I do not know if data is sensational or poor. If there is any dose response clinically at higher doses that information is GOLD.
Because the next doses will be multiple times a week, so if there is any better response at 1000 than at 450 then responses should be better still down the road(duh)
What I really think of the stock has been said many times incl recently, worth 300 if K pans out and is widely used in oncology patients. Worth much less if B and B OM 1507 prurisol etc are the only drivers. How much less- I don't know.
Oh yeah - I twisted your words. Luckily, you are able to twist things u, all on your own.
I said he gave new info and he did.
You said he should not give new info because it would be lost in the hoopla.
It's that simple
We disagree
And Leo obv agreed with me since he did provide NEW info!
Fine- you are content when he says a little bit, and I would like to hear a lot
He gave new information. So does that make Leo "dead wrong"?
He just did not give enough
I wrote a small bit about the immunoglobulin death domain (whose name I love) when article first came up on google news. Link helpful.
Why not crush the opposition? CEO gives new details about response to K: what the heck??!!??? Why not say one word about the higher doses. 4 of 9 stable disease at doses up to 450 for ovarian CA. He knows the data for the higher doses so why not say anything about it? If there was good data, then he could crush these shorters like bugs and the stock would fly. How about, with higher doses we saw better responses, and we await further information . If he can talk about the earlier doses then why not talk about the higher doses? Because those patients have not had their 6 month scans? Because the data is not so good? I believe it is the latter, and that further benefit will have to wait for more aggressive regimens, like 1000 3x week?
We need to answer: why this missed opportunity to tell a bigger and better story?
SA article science is laughable. Just started to read through it and it is nonsense. The questions is,how can a bogus error filled article devastate a stock? Loss of 1/3 of value in a day? How would shareholders possibly dump 4 million shares? I cannot comprehend it.
I thought the stock would win or fail based on science and in the long run it should play out that way. But this is truly shocking.
Yes- it's a safe drug so far
When multiple patients have positive responses I will be thrilled. All will be revealed; it'll just take time.
I apologize to TOB etc for contentious unhelpful posts yest. I am a bit on edge here, with CTIX going down , and down, and down, for reasons not clear to me. I thought I had the stomach for biotech. (Sure, I know the board will say, so sell already.) I am still a believer in the long run for CTIX
What could move share price up(shorter term):
any preliminary info on B OM, maybe possible in the next few months
partnership for B: who knows when that might be.
any new info about the gram - drug(I think it was 1507?)
any bit of info to be shared about K responses with changes in dosing(realizing that may not be available for years). We would all like to know what happens as the patients are dosed multiple days in a week at high levels(understatement)- how long will that be...
any news about products not in the front lines: say, product for conjunctivitis, or bleparitis
Fair enough. We agree that there is nothing yet to prove any benefit from K, nor should there be at this point since Phase 1 is about safety/dosing. In other phase 1's there are strong results that get into the media right away but we have not seen that yet, and have no right to expect it since dosing so difficult/not finalized at all.
Agreed. ASCO 2017/2018 more likely to report good or bad news for K, and 2016 likely just another discussion of safety and dosage
yes misread. What makes you think a partnership for B will come soon?
They just asked Dana farber for new dosing regimens, right? Have you been reading the PR's?
do not agree at all. Likely in the midst of phase 3 B at next ASCO
of course what I wrote is sarcastic tripe, warranted by your endless droning about p21. As if it is such a big deal. (Yes I am glad it went up) You write about a complete response of one spleen met? In one patient? And would you hang your hat on that? Without knowing about all the other patients? What about the increase in CEA in that patient?
So we disagree. You would like to attach a lot of significance to p21, when no other helpful info is released by CTIX or Dana Farber.
Nothing about biomarkers such CA19-9 for pancreatic CA or ovarian CA markers, or tumor response for all those other patients. Leo has said that some tumors stabilized in the corporate update, many moons ago, and then....silence
We can draw optimistic conclusions based on clustering of ovarian CA and uterine CA patients and the orphan drug designation, but those are just speculations, and they are worthless.
We still have to sit and wait for real dosing decisions and possible efficacy- on that I am sure we agree.
sigh.give me a break.
So the drug will be efficacious based on increases in p21?
What a shame they have to prove ,then, that it actually works to reduce tumor size or increase survival
Too bad they cannot stop now, and tell patients that their p21 will go up and they will get better.
Oh wait- maybe their p21 will go up and it won't matter clinically.
(What a hassle. The burden of proof in a clinical trial- must we go through it? Oh yeah- that's how it works)
I am obsessed with the dosing stuff, as you know, and agree with you.
You may be right, and why else would they give it such status?
BUT: how much benefit and in how many patients? We know NOTHING.
Nota bene: orphan status also given for drugs that have shown an increase in survival in early phases of a couple months. Cannot recall exact details but it is so, some pancreatic CA drug in phase 2.
That is not the kind of benefit I want to own as an investor, to take one example
I will believe it when I see the data
I have done plenty of diligence, much more than most of this board I suspect.
LOOK : Leo jumped up and down and shouted to the world because one spleen lesion went away- despite the fact that CEA continued to increase, in ONE patient.
If K really had a big impact I think he would have said or hinted MUCH more.
This I believe.
They have shown safety only, all they need to move forward to next phases for K. Says NOTHING about efficacy.
My guess- and it is just a guess-would be more probable than not that it has some benefit, based on what Leo has said. But he has said so little. And last ASCO said nothing about efficacy.
How much benefit, and for how many cancers, is what counts, and we are a long way from knowing.
UNLESS CTIX and Dana Farber know things they are not saying, but I doubt this.
if K works it is gold, much more so than B. There are already lots of competing drugs for MRSA/Staph/Strep. B is better than the competition, but K would change cancer treatment for many pts if it works. I am less convinced than you that 90% it works
Oh brother- look: right now Brilacidin is a success and it will be a success in the long run in all likelihood. I believe this or I would not have invested
However, if CTIX announced today that Kevetrin research is suspended due to lack of efficacy, what would the share price be today? Or a month from now?
Something very low
In the very long run yes in the shorter term CTIX prices will dive if K not a success-would you not agree with that?
Of course agree with you, with one caveat. B derisks K as everyone says, BUT K could pull down CTIX and B if it does not work. Say trial results are ultimately disappointing for K, and we hear at next ASCO
What would CTIX be worth? Despite all we hope for with Brilacidin and B OM? The share price would be something really ugly for a long time