Geo, Gerry told me about 6 months ago, that the actual well site is high and dry, even during the recent record flooding. He said the access road was the problem, and that it is easily washed out in the kind of record flooding we had this year. He also said the pipeline we will tie into is high and dry.
What we all need to do is to combine our various different bits on knowledge, experience and know how together and trade like a wolf pack (LOL, sorry Pigroast), and Ihub seems to be a great place for sharing.
My original them goes back to the 1980's when I traded on technology and science breakthroughs, cutting edge environmental companies, and buying distressed stocks that were trading at 5-10% of book value. One was a huge NH. Power and light company, and another was a huge Texas bank. I got about 2% of my investment back on those 2, as they both were bought out for almost nothing days before bankruptcy would have finished them off. One was bad oil and gas loans (Texas Bank) the other was political fight where Gov. Ducaucus in the state next to NH refused to issue a start up safety permit, and so a 3 billion dollar nuclear plant was never turned on!!!! The depreciation losses ruined the power company. I have plenty of my own scars including being way too deep in the market when it crashed in 1987. But I have had my successes as well. Buying SIRI at .12/share was one of them.
But regarding geology and bank balance, those are just parts of the puzzle. We also need to watch the world wide market cycles, less we get our arses handed to us on a day when the market drops 20% in one day. I know, I was there. I spend a great part of late 2008-2010 studying charts and market cycles.
I am now in for a penny in for a pound with AEXP and MNLU, but I now worry a little bit more about their financial prowess, as they should have raised the money, or some of it, with a stock offer when the stock was at $1, not now. I think the Japan Earthquake and market sell off, and nervousness, caught them off guard. Raising money now, in retrospect is the worst time. At least they had the balls to realize the mistake and take there licks here and now, while they can still save the company and the existing investors investment.
I do not expect to see a 5 to 10 bagger here now, not this year, but I do have high hopes that this is the bottom (if they actually raise the cash). I think it could easily get back .40 and stay there, but retail will not push it higher until those warrants expire, or they get exercised in which case another $$25 million in cash would hit their bank to fund other wells, and the price could move up to 50 cents, then repeat, and once all the warrants are gone, we will see a possible 10 bagger, but that may take 2 years unless something else happens!!! Then once that happens we start moving higher.
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