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ABSOLUTE BARGAIN !!!
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-09) 1: 4.28
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.48
I forget to talk about ATPG who is ultra cheap.
Your view on the chart ?
AUDIO TO LISTEN
PART1
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0927-3a.mp3
PART2
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0927-3b.mp3
Doug Noland
Market Strategist, David Tice & Associates
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0927-1.mp3
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0927-2.mp3
This time we're at the end of the road my friend.
We must prepare ourself.
Klonnie at this stage of the game, I think it will be fair to say the truth.
You know like me that a lot of people don't forgive Willy for is pump on CMKX.
All this people have decided to short all his picks.
This group reunited at least a group of 50 people (Masters are Panetta, Dodge and others..)
They're connected to the T/A and decided to mislead Willy with false info about Sib.
IMHO
Deal reached on financial markets bailout
Congressional leaders and the Bush administration reached a tentative deal early Sunday on a landmark bailout of imperiled financial markets whose collapse could plunge the nation into a deep recession.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the $700 billion accord just after midnight but said it still has to be put on paper.
"We've still got more to do to finalize it, but I think we're there," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also participated in the negotiations in the Capitol.
"We worked out everything," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., the chief Senate Republican in the talks.
Congressional leaders hope to have the House vote on the measure Monday. A Senate vote would come later.
The plan calls for the Treasury Department to buy deeply distressed mortgage-backed securities and other bad debts held by banks and other investors. The money should help troubled lenders make new loans and keep credit lines open. The government would later try to sell the discounted loan packages at the best possible price.
At the insistence of House Republicans, some of the program's $700 billion would be devoted to a program that would encourage holders of distressed mortgage-backed securities to keep them and buy government insurance to cover defaults.
The legislation would place "reasonable" limits on severance packages for executives of companies that benefit from the rescue plan, said a senior administration official who was authorized to speak only on background. It would affect fired executives of financial firms, and executives of firms that go bankrupt. Some of the provisions would be retroactive and some prospective, the official said.
The proposed legislation also calls for the financial sector to help make up the difference if the government does not recoup its investment in five years, the official said, but details were unclear.
Also, the government would receive stock warrants in return for the bailout relief, giving taxpayers a chance to share in financial companies' future profits.
To help struggling homeowners, the plan would require the government to try renegotiating the bad mortgages it acquires with the aim of lowering borrowers' monthly payments so they can keep their homes.
The measure's main elements were proposed a week ago by the Bush administration, with Paulson heading efforts to push it through the Democratic-controlled Congress. Democrats insisted on greater congressional oversight, more taxpayer protections, help for homeowners facing possible foreclosure, and restrictions on executives' compensation.
To some degree, all those items were added.
At the insistence of House Republicans, who threatened to sidetrack negotiations at midweek, the insurance provision was added as an alternative to having the government buy distressed securities. House Republicans say it will require less taxpayer spending for the bailout.
But the Treasury Department has said the insurance provision would not pump enough money into the financial sector to make credit sufficiently available. The department would decide how to structure the insurance provisions, said Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., one of the negotiators.
Money for the rescue plan would be phased in, he said. The first $350 billion would be available as soon as the president requested it. Congress could try to block later amounts if it believed the program was not working. The president could veto such a move, however, requiring extra large margins in the House and Senate to override.
Despite the changes made during an intense week of negotiations, the heart of the program remains Bush's original idea: To have the government spend billions of dollars to buy mortgage-backed securities whose value has plummeted as hundreds of thousands of Americans have defaulted on their home loans.
Senate Majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Saturday that the goal was to come up with a final agreement before the Asian markets open Sunday night. "Everybody is waiting for this thing to tip a little bit too far," he said, so "we may not have another day."
Hours later, when he and others told reporters of the plan in a post-midnight news conference, Reid referred to the sometimes testy nature of the negotiations.
"We've had a lot of pleasant words," he said, "and some that haven't always been pleasant."
"We're very pleased with the progress made tonight," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto. "We appreciate the bipartisan effort to deal with this urgent issue."
It was not immediately clear how many House Republicans might vote for the measure. With the election five weeks away, Democrats have said they would not push a plan that appeared sharply partisan in nature.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93FJ1182&show_article=1
EUROPE IS HIT BY THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Une banque européenne victime de la crise des subprimes américains, B&B en difficulté en GB
Une banque européenne victime de la crise des subprimes américains. Les autorités bancaires belges ont eu des entretiens avec des responsables de la banque belgo-néerlandaise Fortis samedi, pour essayer de rétablir la confiance, après une chute vertigineuse de ses actions qui pourrait conduire à l'insolvabilité, a expliqué Veerle De Schrijver, porte-parole de la Commission bancaire, financière et des Assurances de Belgique (CBFA), à la chaîne de télévision privée flamande VTM.
Les organismes de régulation tentaient, avant la réouverture des marchés lundi, de trouver un moyen d'enrayer la chute de Fortis, victime de la crise des crédits hypothécaires à risque, a déclaré Veerle De Schrijver.
Le groupe pourrait être repris par d'autres banques européennes, comme le géant bancaire français BNP Paribas ou la britannique HSBC Holdings, plus grande banque en Europe, ont précisé certains médias. Autres scénarios possibles, selon un média belge: la vente d'actifs de Fortis ou le recrutement de nouveaux investisseurs aux Pays-Bas et en Belgique.
Le ministre belge des Finances, Didier Reynders, se serait également impliqué dans les négociations, selon un média belge.
Vendredi soir, le directeur général de Fortis, Herman Verwilst, avait annoncé sa démission, après que le cours en bourse de la société avait plongé de 21% dans la journée pour atteindre les 5,18 euros, son niveau le plus bas en plus de 10 ans, ayant ainsi perdu près des 3/4 de sa valeur depuis le début de l'année. Herman Verwilst a été remplacé par Filip Dierckx.
Herman Verwilst avait alors dit que les clients de Fortis ont retiré quelque 4,8 milliards d'euros depuis janvier, soit 3% du total, avec des "pointes" autour d'événements telle la faillite de Lehman Brothers.
Un plan qui consisterait à vendre jusqu'à 10 milliards d'euros d'actifs, si nécessaire et pour renflouer les finances, n'a pas réussi à apaiser les incertitudes. Le Premier ministre belge, Yves Leterme, a affirmé vendredi qu'il n'y avait aucune raison de paniquer, pour les titulaires de comptes et de retirer son argent.
Fortis est en difficulté depuis qu'elle a pris des parts l'an dernier dans le consortium de trois banques, qui a acquis la néerlandaise ABN Amro pour 70 milliards d'euros, soit la plus importante acquisition effectuée dans le secteur bancaire.
Et par ailleurs, en Grande-Bretagne, une autre caisse hypothécaire, montrait des signes de faiblesse, Bradford & Bingley (B&B), a confirmé le ministre des Finances britannique, Alistair Darling. B&B était en pleines discussions avec l'autorité britannique des services financiers (FSA) et les institutions financières de Grande-Bretagne.
B&B pourrait être reprise par une autre banque ou fermée ou encore vendue en plusieurs parts, a rapporté l'association de la presse britannique. Et les parts de son activité qui ne pourront être vendues devraient être nationalisées.
La semaine dernière, Bradford & Bingley a déjà supprimé 370 emplois. Le porte-parole de la société, Tony McGarahan, a déclaré qu'une solution serait trouvée avant la réouverture de la bourse lundi.
Déjà le 18 septembre, le plus grand prêteur hypothécaire HBOS avait été victime de la crise du crédit et vendu à sa rivale Lloyds TSB pour 21,85 milliards de dollars (14,98 milliards d'euros).
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/ap/20080928/twl-usa-economie-crise-europe-fortis-b-b-224d7fb.html
Very interesting board.
Marked.
+ 20 %
Short covering ?
Maybee.....
120-130$ will be a good entry point.
39$ ?
Well it seems that the market is telling us that we must get ready for apocalypse.
If DRYS is not a crook, this is a gift of a lifetime.....
77$ OIL TARGET
McCain Says There 'Never Was A Deal' On Wall Street Bailout
WASHINGTON (AFP)--Republican White House hopeful Sen. John McCain denied Thursday there ever had been any deal in place between Congress and the White House on a $700-billion Wall Street bailout plan.
McCain said on ABC News after talks at the White House that also included his Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama that he still hoped to go to the scheduled presidential debate Friday night in Mississippi.
But his senior campaign adviser Steve Schmidt accused Obama of putting himself before his country, by continuing to run campaign ads while the high-stakes political drama over the economic crisis was playing out.
McCain said he knew going into the White House meeting called by President Bush that there was no deal, after having said Wednesday the debate should be canceled if a bailout wasn't secured.
"I knew going in, because I had been over on the House side with my House Republican colleagues, there never was a deal," McCain said. "But I do believe the meeting was important to move the process along."
Democrats accused McCain of unhelpful grandstanding and poisoning the process with presidential politics by putting his campaign on hold and returning to Washington, with a deal apparently almost in place.
But Schmidt said McCain was working to persuade enough lawmakers to support the package.
"The problem right now is that any rescue package has to pass by a majority vote," Schmidt told reporters outside McCain's campaign headquarters in Arlington, Va.
"There is not yet a majority of Democrats or Republicans who are willing to vote yes for anything," he said. "The votes at this hour do not yet exist."
Schmidt also accused Obama of buying up time vacated by McCain on TV networks for campaign advertisements, when the Republican made up his mind to pull down his ads Wednesday.
"It is an example once again of Sen. McCain putting his country first, while Senator Obama puts Senator Obama first," Schmidt said.
Asia Needs Deal to Prevent Panic Selling of U.S. Debt, Yu Says
By Kevin Hamlin
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China and other holders of U.S. government debt must quickly reach an agreement to prevent panic sales leading to a global financial collapse, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank.
``We are in the same boat, we must cooperate,'' Yu said in an interview in Beijing on Sept. 23. ``If there's no selling in a panicked way, then China willingly can continue to provide our financial support by continuing to hold U.S. assets.''
An agreement is needed so that no nation rushes to sell, ``causing a collapse,'' Yu said. Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury bills, holding $593 billion, and China is second with $519 billion. Asian countries together hold half of the $2.67 trillion total held by foreign nations.
China, Japan, South Korea and others should meet soon to seal a deal, said Yu, a former academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee. The talks should involve finance ministers, central bank governors and even national leaders, he said.
``Whether some kind of agreement between them to continue to hold Treasury bills is viable, I'm not sure,'' said James McCormack, head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Ltd in Hong Kong. ``It would be unusual. If it became apparent that sovereigns in Asia were selling Treasuries the market would take that quite badly, it's something to be avoided.''
The global credit crisis, triggered by a housing slump in the U.S., has saddled financial companies with more than $520 billion in writedowns and losses, collapsing Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in the process. Insurer American International Group Inc. and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also were rescued by the government.
`Grave Threats'
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is urging Congress to pass a $700 billion plan to remove devalued assets from the banking system. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Sept. 24 that the U.S. is facing ``grave threats'' to its financial stability.
China's huge holdings of U.S. debt means it must bear a large proportion of the ``burden of sorting things out'' in the U.S., Yu said. China is not in a hurry to dump its U.S. holdings and communication between the two nations every ``couple of days'' is keeping Chinese leaders informed and helping to avoid a potential panic, he added.
``China is very worried about the safety of its assets,'' he said. ``If you want China to keep calm, you must ensure China that its assets are safe.''
Currency Manipulator
Yu said China is helping the U.S. ``in a very big way'' and added that it should get something in return. The U.S. should avoid labeling it an unfair trader and a currency manipulator and not politicize other issues, he said.
``It is not fair that we are doing this in good faith and are prepared to bear serious consequences and you are still labeling China this and that, accusing China of this and that,'' he said. ``China knows what to do. We don't need your intervention.''
The U.S. financial crisis had taught China a lesson and that was: ``Why are we piling up these IOUs if they may default?'' China's economic expansion strategy, which emphasizes export growth that has led to trade surpluses and the accumulation of $1.81 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, is the main problem, said Yu.
``Our export-growth strategy has run its natural course,'' he said. ``We should change course.''
China should stop intervening in the foreign currency markets and thus allow rapid appreciation of the yuan, he said. While this would cause pain for exporters, China could ease the transition by using its strong fiscal position to aid those who lose their jobs. It also should stimulate domestic demand to offset lower income from overseas sales.
Without yuan appreciation, China will continue to accumulate foreign reserves, which means further accumulating ``IOUs from the U.S.,'' said Yu. ``This is paper and it may default and it will not increase China's national welfare.''
If China doesn't allow the yuan to appreciate and continues to promote export-led growth it will lead to confrontation with the U.S. and Europe, Yu said.
Bailout deal breaks down; Paulson back to Capitol
Bailout deal breaks apart; Paulson joins congressional negotiators for late-night talks
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Republican rebellion stalled government efforts Thursday to avoid economic meltdown, a chaotic turnaround that disrupted the choreography of am extraordinary White House meeting meant to show joint resolve from the president, the political parties and the presidential candidates.
After six days of intensive talks on the $700 billion financial industry bailout proposed by the Bush administration, with Wall Street tottering and presidential politics intruding six weeks before the election, there was more confusion than clarity.
An apparent breakthrough was announced with fanfare at midday by key members of Congress from both parties -- but not top leaders. Wall Street cautiously showed its pleasure, with the Dow Jones industrials closing 196 points higher.
But the good news and the market close were followed by a rash of less-positive developments.
Washington Mutual Inc. was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in the largest failure ever of a U.S. bank, after which JPMorgan Chase & Co. Inc. came to its rescue by buying the thrift's banking assets.
And a late-afternoon White House summit bringing together President Bush, presidential contenders John McCain and Barack Obama, and top congressional leaders, described as "a full-throated discussion" by one person in the room and "a contentious shouting match" by McCain's campaign, broke up with conflicts in plain view.
Conservatives were in revolt over the astonishing price tag of the proposal and the hand of government that it would place on private markets.
Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, emerged from the White House meeting to say the announced agreement "is obviously no agreement." McCain's campaign issued a statement saying, "the plan that has been put forth by the administration does not enjoy the confidence of the American people as it will not protect the taxpayers and will sacrifice Main Street in favor of Wall Street." The White House, too, acknowledged there was no deal, only progress.
Meanwhile a group of House GOP lawmakers circulated an alternative that would put much less focus on a government takeover of failing institutions' sour assets. This proposal would have the government provide insurance to companies that agree to hold frozen assets, rather than have the U.S. purchase the assets.
Inside the White House session, House Republican leader John Boehner announced his concerns about the emerging plan and asked that the conservatives' alternative be considered, said people from both parties who were briefed on the exchange. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the session was private.
Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, the feisty Democrat who has been leading negotiations with Paulson, reacted angrily, saying Republicans had waited until the last moment to present their proposal.
Meanwhile McCain, who dramatically announced Wednesday that he was suspending his campaign to deal with the economic crisis, stayed silent for most of the session and spoke only briefly to voice general principles for a rescue plan.
Weary congressional negotiators then resumed working into the night, joined by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in an effort to revive or rework the proposal that Bush said must be quickly approved by Congress to stave off potentially "a long and painful recession." They gave up after 10 p.m. EDT, more than an hour after the lone House Republican involved, Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, left the room.
Talks were to resume Friday morning on the effort to bail out failing financial institutions and restart the flow of credit that has begun to starve the national economy.
The Bush administration plan's centerpiece remained for the government to buy the toxic, mortgage-based assets of shaky financial institutions in a bid to keep them from going under and setting off a cascade of ruinous events, including wiped-out retirement savings, rising home foreclosures, closed businesses and lost jobs.
The earlier bipartisan accord establishing principles and important details would have given the Bush administration just a fraction of the money it wanted up front, subjecting half the $700 billion total to a congressional veto. The treasury secretary would get $250 billion immediately and could have an additional $100 billion if he certified it was needed, an approach designed to give lawmakers a stronger hand in controlling the unprecedented rescue.
The Bush administration had already agreed to several concessions based on demands from the right and left, including that the government take equity in companies helped by the bailout and put rules in place to limit excessive compensation of their executives, according to a draft of the outline obtained by The Associated Press.
Democrat Obama and Republican McCain, who have both sought to distance themselves from the unpopular Bush, sat down with the president at the White House for the hourlong afternoon session that was striking in this brutally partisan season. By also including Congress' Democratic and Republican leaders, the meeting gathered nearly all Washington's political power structure at one long table in a small West Wing room.
"All of us around the table ... know we've got to get something done as quickly as possible," Bush declared optimistically at the start of the meeting. Obama and McCain were at distant ends of the oval table, not even in each other's sight lines. Bush, playing host in the middle, was flanked by Congress' two Democratic leaders, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
But neither Bush, McCain nor Obama have been deeply involved so far in this week's scramble to hammer out a package. The meeting was intended more to provide bipartisan political cover for lawmakers to support a plan in the face of an angry public and their own re-election bids in six weeks.
At day's end, Frank said he told Paulson "this whole thing is at risk if the president can't get members of his own party to participate."
Layered over the White House meeting was a complicated web of potential political benefits and consequences for both presidential candidates.
McCain hoped voters would believe that he rose above politics to wade into successful, nitty-gritty dealmaking at a time of urgent crisis, but he risked being seen instead as either overly impulsive or politically craven, or both. Obama saw a chance to appear presidential and fit for duty but was also caught off guard strategically by McCain's surprising gamble in saying he was suspending his campaigning and asking to delay Friday night's debate to focus on the crisis.
Associated Press writers Deb Riechmann, Martin Crutsinger, Christopher Wills and Beth Fouhy in Washington and researcher Judy Ausuebel in New York contributed to this story.
(This version CORRECTS Bush's quote. He warned of a "long and painful recession," not "long and deep.")
Short-Sale Ban Fails to Save Ambac From 50% Plunge (Update1)
By Nick Baker and Eric Martin
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. and Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. tumbled more than 50 percent in the past four days. And you can't blame short sellers.
Their stocks are among 942 that the Securities and Exchange Commission prohibited investors from betting against because of concern speculators were unfairly punishing the shares. Of the total, 44 percent underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since the SEC unveiled the list of banned stocks Sept. 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
``Taking the short sellers out of the market doesn't change the fundamentals,' said Dean Gulis, part of a group that manages about $3 billion for Loomis Sayles & Co. in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. ``It's wrong to say that short selling of shares was the biggest contributor to the financial crisis.'
The SEC banned short sales, where traders sell borrowed shares with the hope of buying them back later at a lower price, on concern investors took advantage of the subprime mortgage market's collapse to drive stock prices lower. Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John Mack blamed short sellers for ``driving our stock down,' according to a memo to employees sent Sept. 17. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. CEO Richard Fuld told Wall Street executives he believed short sellers ``actively colluded' to topple Bear Stearns Cos., CNBC reported April 1.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s purchase of Bear in March saved it from bankruptcy, while Lehman, once the fourth-largest investment bank, filed the biggest bankruptcy in history last week.
Trailing S&P 500
Altogether, 418 stocks on the SEC's no-short-selling list fell more than the S&P 500's 1.7 percent decline since Sept. 18 through yesterday. Bloomberg's index of all U.S. shares covered by the ban climbed 3 percent, helped by 23 percent increases in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and American International Group Inc. and a 9.9 percent gain in Morgan Stanley. They are among the 40 heaviest-weighted stocks in the index.
Today, the S&P 500 gained 2 percent to 1,209.36 at 11:40 a.m. New York time. The Bloomberg index of companies banned from short sales rose 2.9 percent.
Ambac, the second-largest bond insurer, declined 55 percent to $3.02 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading since Sept. 18 through yesterday, extending its retreat this year to 88 percent. The New York-based company said at the end of last week that it may delay the start of a new municipal bond insurer after Moody's Investors Service said it's considering cutting the firm's financial-strength rating by several grades.
`Everyone Wants a Villain'
Almost one-third of Ambac's shares available for trading were sold short on Sept. 15, according to New York Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Although existing wagers against Ambac and other companies on the no-short list were allowed to remain in place after the SEC ban, new bets are prohibited through Oct. 2.
Farmer Mac, as government-sponsored enterprise Federal Agricultural Mortgage is known, plunged 65 percent to $5.25 since Sept. 18. The Washington-based company said Sept. 22 that its reserves may fall short of federal requirements. Farmer Mac hired a financial adviser to assist in selling assets and common and preferred stock.
``Everyone wants a villain,' said Brad Alford, the Atlanta- based head of Alpha Capital Management LLC who invests in hedge funds. ``It's obviously not the short sellers.'
Mortgage Losses
Financial institutions plunged during the past 19 months as banks globally racked up more than $500 billion in mortgage- related losses and writedowns following the first nationwide decline in U.S. home prices since the 1930s. Banks and brokerages led financial companies in the S&P 500 to a 54 percent retreat between Feb. 20, 2007, and July 15, 2008. That's the steepest slump since at least 1962, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc., a Westport, Connecticut-based research and money-management firm.
Short sellers loaded up Lehman in the two weeks prior to its bankruptcy, increasing their borrowing of the stock by 41 percent, according to the New York Stock Exchange. Lehman saw the second-largest increase in shares sold short among companies on the NYSE.
Investors who made bullish bets on Lehman or had business with the firm were forced to short the stock to balance their risk, according to James Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates Ltd., the $7 billion hedge fund based in New York that specializes in short selling.
``A lot of people mistakenly say `Oh, the short sellers were driving it into bankruptcy,'' Chanos said in a phone interview. ``No. A lot of it was people who had long exposure to that company desperately trying to hedge.'
Morgan, Goldman Rebound
New York-based Morgan Stanley retreated 50 percent to an almost 10-year low of $21.75 in the seven days ended Sept. 17. It rebounded 14 percent, helped by the Bush administration's proposal to spend $700 billion on troubled bank assets. Goldman, which lost 36 percent to $108 over eight days ending Sept. 18, has since rallied 23 percent, helped by a $5 billion investment from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Conseco Inc., a Carmel, Indiana-based insurer that's also on the no-short list, retreated 40 percent to $4.78 since Sept. 18. Western Alliance Bancorp, a Las Vegas-based lender, plunged 43 percent to $14.68, while Ames National Corp., a bank based in Ames, Iowa, sank 37 percent to $26.71.
``It's a negative to have your name on the list because you're being branded as vulnerable,' said Dan Genter, the Los Angeles-based president of RNC Genter Capital Management, which oversees $2.9 billion. ``If I were an investor, I'd want to be out of them.'
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded Washington Mutual's creditworthiness further into junk territory Wednesday, noting the increased likelihood that any sale of the company would only be done in piecemeal fashion.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/24/AR2008092403615.html
NetApp and Brocade Strengthen Data Centers with New Storage Security Solution
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080922/20080922005505.html?.v=1
This article from NetworkWorld provides a very clear and helpful overview of the Foundry Networks (FDRY) - Brocade (BRCD) transaction, particularly with respect to the deal's rationale, which is creating stronger competition for industry giant Cisco (CSCO). The fact that Cisco has come to essentially dominate the networking hardware industry over the last decade or so makes transaction such as this inevitable and, quite frankly, necessary. In other words, this deal is a complete non-issue with respect to competition issues and related regulatory delays.
For the record, FDRY identifies the following as its primary competitors, with Cisco quite naturally singled out:
In addition to Cisco, we compete against 3Com, Alcatel-Lucent, Enterasys Networks, Extreme Networks, F5 Networks, Inc., Force 10 Networks, Hewlett-Packard, Huawei Technologies, Juniper Networks and Nortel Networks.
FDRY's recent SEC history shows no serious problems in the form of major revisions to the company's primary filings. Its last encounter with the SEC occurred in 2003 when its annual report needed some minor revisions before being accepted. Other than that, FDRY has had a few late 10-Qs as recently as 2006, none of which were pulled for review.
Based on the above, an unusually lengthy SEC merger proxy review is generally not anticipated for this transaction. Indeed, no regulatory delays appear likely at this time. Assuming the first proxy statement is filed in a mid/late-August time frame, the current closing projection is first two weeks of November, with a small chance of a late-October close if the proxy is filed early and an SEC waiver is granted.
Brocade's Corporate Development Chief: Networking Co. Can Compete with Anyone
Shortly after T.J. Grewal took the role of vice president of corporate development at Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (BRCD) in August 2004, the storage technology company struck what was at that time its biggest acquisition -- the $713 million acquisition of smaller rival McData Corp. It was trial by fire for the 41-year-old Grewal, a former tech consultant with McKinsey & Co. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission raised antitrust concerns and integration was challenging.
Grewal's latest project is the $3 billion agreement to acquire networking equipment maker Foundry Networks Inc. (FDRY), announced July 21. As with McData, he was instrumental in hammering out the Foundry agreement and will lead the integration.
Grewal says that absorbing Foundry will go more smoothly. The companies make different kinds of networking equipment. Foundry will operate as a separate business unit, and Brocade plans to retain most of the acquired company's executive team, which wasn't the case with McData.
That said, news of the Foundry deal was not greeted with applause from investors. The price tag amounted to a 40% premium on Foundry's pre-announcement share price, and shareholders reacted by dumping Brocade stock. Beyond the usual fears that such a big deal could prove distracting, investors were concerned about the rich price and that Brocade is taking on $1.6 billion in debt to finance the transaction.
Grewal says it might take some time for Wall Street to process the long-term benefits of the deal for Brocade. Chief among these is that the merged company can offer end-to-end networking equipment for connecting storage systems, server banks, and high-powered computer and telecommunications and Internet systems. It'll take a few years for this vision to become reality, he says, but Brocade wants to be prepared when it does, lest the biggest player in networking -- Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) -- walk away with the prize unchallenged.
Grewal recently spoke with Tech Confidential about the Foundry deal.
Tech Confidential: When did the idea for this deal come about?
Grewal: From a strategy standpoint, we looked at how different points of intersection would happen, three years back. We decided to build a converged Ethernet product. The effort was put into how to accelerate into this market; that began almost a year ago. It wasn't a case where two CEOs happened to call each other three weeks before a deal was announced. We looked at the different scenarios: invest in own business or look for an asset that could accelerate our entry into this space. It was a drawn out, in-depth process. You can imagine all the different things we looked at.
Some have said there were no other bidders for Foundry. If that's the case, what should investors take away from the big premium you paid?
I won't talk about bidders. The thing to keep in context is that you're seeing a flat to down market. You have to understand the sentiment in every board room and management team. Everyone feels they're being unfairly valued in the public market, and it's even more so for smaller cap companies.
We did lots of deep diligence here, directly into the company and directly into the market to understand buyers. We see lots of acceleration opportunity here. Once that gets locked in and you see the light, then you're willing to think of the math that gets the transaction done. It still needs to be financially sound, and that was clearly something that we focused on.
We are putting our balance sheet to work effectively with out overburdening it. Both businesses are good at generating cash. And there's a real opportunity for growth.
What did you learn from the experience integrating McData that you can apply to the Brocade deal?
McData was about maintaining a customer base from a market perspective; they were falling behind on product cycles. It was about cost synergies--there were lots of overlaps.
The Foundry deal is the complete inverse. There will be marginal cost savings, but it's really about leveraging brand and accelerating revenue growth in both sides of our traditional storage business and Foundry's Ethernet business.
We have the opportunity to grow Foundry's product in more geographies, there's more opportunity for the traditional Brocade products to grow further into the federal space and into the service provider space where Foundry is strong. There will be more greenfield opportunities, too, as you have customers in the small to midsize enterprise market that are growing in scale and will hit the tripping point where they need a SAN.
The only real similarities between these two very different transactions is the fact that the names on all the buildings will be Brocade. The integration will be a very collaborative process. In the McData deal, none of their executives came over. You won't see that situation here. It's about acceleration, not cost-cutting.
How does buying Foundry help you compete with Cisco?
In terms of the competitive landscape for this deal, we believe our timing is perfect given how dynamic both the data networking and data center markets are right now. Based on the research we've done in due diligence, we know that customers are asking for more choice in terms of a credible, trusted option in end-to-end networking solutions.
With this deal, we are now that option. This deal creates a company with competitive scale and broad, global customer footprint. We believe this bodes well for us to be able to take on anyone in the networking space.
Is this in any way a defensive move on Brocade's part, as some have said?
I suppose it's easy enough for anyone to think that, but the facts don't bear this out. This is a deal of two strong, financially healthy companies in complementary markets coming together in an accretive, very financially healthy manner. Both companies share a passion for innovation and a commitment to developing and delivering customer-driven solutions. The deal adds scale and muscle for us to be able to grow and innovate even faster to take advantage of key market trends and emerging market opportunities. There's nothing defensive about that.
This is very cheap now....
I think we can grab BRCD around 4$.
Radar screen.
Where is the bottom ?
I want to jump in but don't want to buy a falling knife.
Completely oversold but I don't buy a falling knife.
Should trade at least around 80$.
Incredible....
On my radar.
Very cheap here.
The best oil service company out there...
PXP Announces 2008 Second Quarter Earnings of $203 Million or $1.84 Per Diluted Share Representing a 701% Gain Over Same Period in 2007
Please click here for PDF version of this release.
HOUSTON, Aug. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP) ("PXP" or the "Company") today announced financial and operating results for the second quarter 2008.
Highlights:
-- Net income increased to $202.9 million in the second quarter 2008 from
$25.3 million in the second quarter 2007.
-- Operating cash flow was $450.3 million in the second quarter 2008
compared to $111.0 million in the second quarter 2007 (a non-GAAP
measure).
-- Second quarter 2008 oil and gas sales volumes averaged 87.5 thousand
barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) reflecting the previously
announced asset divestitures which closed in February 2008. Sales
volumes averaged 91.6 thousand BOEPD for the first six months of 2008.
PXP expects sales volumes to average between 92 and 96 thousand BOEPD
for the year-ended 2008 and is currently producing within that range.
Flatrock and other growth initiatives are expected to contribute to
sales volume growth throughout the year.
-- Positive drilling results at Flatrock which has four successful wells
to date and two producing wells with approximately 30 million cubic
feet equivalent per day (MMCFED) net to PXP:
- Flatrock No. 2 well commenced production on July 6, 2008. Gross
production currently approximates 102 MMCFED, 23 MMCFED net to PXP.
- Flatrock No. 3 well logged deeper pay in May 2008. In total, the well
encountered 256 feet of net pay. First production is expected in the
third quarter of 2008.
- Flatrock No. 4 development well logged 116 net feet of pay in June
2008 and is drilling below 16,800 feet to proposed total depth of
18,500 feet.
- Flatrock No. 5 well commenced on July 1, 2008 and is currently
drilling below 9,700 feet to proposed total depth of 18,400 feet.
- Flatrock No. 6 well is expected to commence drilling in the second
half of 2008.
-- South Timbalier Block 168 ultra-deep exploratory well has been drilled
to 32,550 feet and is being evaluated.
-- Fredericksburg exploratory prospect, operated by Shell and located on
Desoto Canyon Block 486, is currently drilling with results expected in
the third quarter.
-- Friesian #2 well, operated by PXP and located on Green Canyon Block
643, has a rig on location running anchors, with drilling results
expected in the fourth quarter.
-- Positive drilling results continue from the Texas Panhandle development
program. We began the year producing 6,500 BOEPD and are currently
producing approximately 7,600 BOEPD. These production gains are
primarily coming from the Courson Ranch and Marvin Lakes areas. We are
having better-than-expected results from vertical wells targeting the
Mississippian St. Louis formation and horizontal wells targeting the
Cleveland formation. Additionally, wells in the Marvin Lakes area
targeting the Granite Wash and Atoka Wash formations, where we have a
significant inventory of future drilling locations, are contributing to
these positive results.
-- Acquired a 20% interest in Chesapeake Energy's 550,000 acre leasehold
position in the Haynesville Shale, 110,000 acres net to PXP, for $1.65
billion. In addition, PXP has agreed to fund 50% of Chesapeake's 80%
share of drilling and completion costs for future Haynesville Shale JV
wells over a several year period until an additional $1.65 billion has
been paid. This applies to less than 10% of the estimated 6,800
potential future drilling locations. PXP expects average drilling and
completion costs of $1.25 per MCFE and total finding and development
costs of $1.83 per MCFE. Drilling operations are underway with 6 rigs
running and a total of 30 rigs expected by year-end 2009. Production
contribution is expected in the fourth quarter 2008.
-- Closed the Piceance Basin acquisition in June 2008, expanding an
existing PXP growth area by adding approximately 11,000 acres adjacent
to our existing position and increasing our overall Piceance drilling
inventory to over 3,600 potential well locations. Production from the
Piceance Basin properties has increased 155% to 27.5 MMCF per
day in the second quarter of 2008 compared to 10.8 MMCF per day in the
second quarter 2007. There are 6 rigs running and a total of 7 rigs
expected by year-end 2008.
-- Received Santa Barbara County Planning Commission approval of the
Tranquillon Ridge project in April, one of the necessary government
approvals. PXP is currently working to secure approval from the
California State Lands Commission.
-- In Vietnam we contracted a rig to drill our first well mid-year 2009.
-- Increased PXP's commodity price protection by acquiring incremental
derivatives on a significant portion of 2008, 2009 and 2010 production
volumes with over $100 crude oil floors and $10 by $20 natural gas
collars.
PXP Announces $1.25 Billion Divestiture of Permian and Piceance Basin Properties
HOUSTON, Sept. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP) ("PXP" or the "Company") announced today it has executed a definitive purchase and sale agreement to sell its interests in oil and gas properties located in the Permian and Piceance Basins for $1.25 billion to Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY).
"Pursuant to our commitment to strengthen PXP's financial profile, this transaction increases the Company's oil weighting for both reserves and production for 2009 and protects a significant portion of our remaining production with our superior hedge put position insuring positive cash flow even in a lower commodity price environment. Additionally, this transaction reduces our corporate debt by at least $1 billion and enables us to lower our projected 2009 capital expenditures to $1.35 billion plus have a pro forma target compounded annual production growth rate in excess of 15% for 2008-2012," commented Mr. James C. Flores, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PXP.
"This divestment facilitates PXP's rotation from assets with moderate growth and challenging differentials to the unparalleled high growth Haynesville Shale play which is proving to have stronger operating metrics and growth attributes with higher wellhead realizations. PXP has a 20% interest in Chesapeake's as reported 550,000 acre leasehold position holding an estimated 40 trillion cubic feet equivalent of gross un-risked resource potential. With an expanding drilling program and production beginning in the fourth quarter of this year, the Haynesville Shale will become a key driver to our production and reserve growth for most of the next decade while bolstering our return on investment. The Company's core assets remain our strong California oil production, Texas and Gulf Coast gas assets, long-life Madden field, dynamic Haynesville Shale play and high-impact exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, Offshore California and Vietnam.
"The refocusing of our asset base will increase our high margin, oil weighting and will target a strong organic production growth rate while remaining fiscally disciplined and preserving commodity price upside for our stakeholders," commented Mr. Flores.
The properties to be sold generate sales volumes net to PXP of approximately 13,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and had approximately 92 million barrels of oil equivalent proved reserves net to PXP as of December 31, 2007. Pro forma for this transaction, PXP's oil and gas mix for 2009 estimated production will increase to 56% oil and to 70% oil for estimated year-end 2008 reserves while on average 75% of our 2009 and 2010 estimated oil production is protected with floors above $100 and approximately 85% of our estimated natural gas production through year-end 2009 is protected with either physical purchases used in our operations or $10 by $20 collars.
The transaction effective date is December 1, 2008 and is expected to close during the fourth quarter 2008 subject to customary closing conditions and adjustments. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., Banc of America Securities LLC and Barclays Capital Inc. acted as financial advisors to PXP on this transaction.
OUTLOOK
PXP plans to update full-year 2008 operating and financial guidance and provide full-year 2009 operating and financial guidance on November 6, 2008 when third quarter earnings are released.
PXP is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the activities of acquiring, developing, exploring and producing oil and gas in California, Texas, Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico. PXP is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
PXP Announces $1.25 Billion Divestiture of Permian and
"Pursuant to our commitment to strengthen PXP's financial profile, this transaction increases the Company's oil weighting for both reserves and production for 2009 and protects a significant portion of our remaining production with our superior hedge put position insuring positive cash flow even in a lower commodity price environment. Additionally, this transaction reduces our corporate debt by at least $1 billion and enables us to lower our projected 2009 capital expenditures to $1.35 billion plus have a pro forma target compounded annual production growth rate in excess of 15% for 2008-2012," commented Mr. James C. Flores, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PXP.
"This divestment facilitates PXP's rotation from assets with moderate growth and challenging differentials to the unparalleled high growth Haynesville Shale play which is proving to have stronger operating metrics and growth attributes with higher wellhead realizations. PXP has a 20% interest in Chesapeake's as reported 550,000 acre leasehold position holding an estimated 40 trillion cubic feet equivalent of gross un-risked resource potential. With an expanding drilling program and production beginning in the fourth quarter of this year, the Haynesville Shale will become a key driver to our production and reserve growth for most of the next decade while bolstering our return on investment. The Company's core assets remain our strong California oil production, Texas and Gulf Coast gas assets, long-life Madden field, dynamic Haynesville Shale play and high-impact exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, Offshore California and Vietnam.
"The refocusing of our asset base will increase our high margin, oil weighting and will target a strong organic production growth rate while remaining fiscally disciplined and preserving commodity price upside for our stakeholders," commented Mr. Flores.
The properties to be sold generate sales volumes net to PXP of approximately 13,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and had approximately 92 million barrels of oil equivalent proved reserves net to PXP as of December 31, 2007. Pro forma for this transaction, PXP's oil and gas mix for 2009 estimated production will increase to 56% oil and to 70% oil for estimated year-end 2008 reserves while on average 75% of our 2009 and 2010 estimated oil production is protected with floors above $100 and approximately 85% of our estimated natural gas production through year-end 2009 is protected with either physical purchases used in our operations or $10 by $20 collars.
The transaction effective date is December 1, 2008 and is expected to close during the fourth quarter 2008 subject to customary closing conditions and adjustments. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., Banc of America Securities LLC and Barclays Capital Inc. acted as financial advisors to PXP on this transaction.
OUTLOOK
PXP plans to update full-year 2008 operating and financial guidance and provide full-year 2009 operating and financial guidance on November 6, 2008 when third quarter earnings are released.
PXP is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the activities of acquiring, developing, exploring and producing oil and gas in California, Texas, Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico. PXP is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
I see that you've PXP in the list above.
It's seem to be very very cheap down here....
What do I miss ?
Hedge funds suffer mass redemptions
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/hedge-funds-suffer-mass-redemptions-938959.html
Very scary....
Holy cow......
Check this out !!
The failure by Congress to pass Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout plan could send the U.S. into a financial Stone Age, said Cramer.
Two law enforcement officials said the FBI is looking at potential fraud by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., and insurer American International Group Inc.
Two law enforcement officials said the FBI is looking at potential fraud by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., and insurer American International Group Inc.
FBI investigating companies at heart of meltdown
Sources: FBI investigating possible fraud by Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, AIG and their executives
The FBI is investigating four major U.S. financial institutions whose collapse helped trigger a $700 billion bailout plan by the Bush administration.
Two law enforcement officials said the FBI is looking at potential fraud by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., and insurer American International Group Inc.
A senior law enforcement official says the inquiries, still in preliminary stages, will focus on the financial institutions and the individuals that ran them.
Officials say the new inquiries brings the number of corporate lenders under investigation over the last year to 26.
Dodd and Kyle on the Bailout Package (part 1)
Face à la crise vous croyez immunisé ? Détrompez-vous !
Vous êtes vous demandé pourquoi l'or flambe soudainement ? Ce n'est pas un hasard... L'heure est grave et les risques pour vos actifs financiers maximum.
Vous vous croyez immunisé ? Je n'en suis pas si sûre......
Dans une marée de monnaie fraîchement imprimée la relique barbare surnage ! nous dit Simone Wapler
Pas de doute sur ce point. Jamais je n'ai vu autant d'argent injecté dans le système en aussi peu de temps qu'actuellement. C'est juste incroyable. On ne vit cela qu'une fois dans sa vie ! Lisez plutôt :
- paquet fiscal pour soutenir la demande : 150 milliards de dollars ;
- renflouement de Fannie et Freddie : 200/300 milliards de dollars ;
- Mise en place du TARP (structure de rachat des actifs toxiques des banques et des assurances) : 700 milliards de dollars ;
- injection massive lundi par la Fed de liquidités pour soutenir le système bancaire : 50 milliards de dollars ;
- dans la foulée, le Trésor américain met à disposition de la Fed une rallonge de 140 milliards de dollars pour agir ;
- et comme ça ne suffit pas : swap entre banques centrales mardi pour financer les opérations de sauvetage de la Fed : 180 milliards de dollars ;
- du coup : mise sous perfusion d'AIG mercredi pour 85 milliards de dollars.
J'arrête là la liste. Elle est loin d'être exhaustive...
Rien qu'à ce stade, on est déjà très largement au-dessus des mille milliards de dollars !
Les planches à billets tournent à tout-va. Si vous cherchiez une activité qui tourne encore à plein régime, vous avez trouvé ! Et il n'y a pas qu'aux Etats-Unis qu'on imprime de la monnaie papier. La BCE joue elle aussi dans la cour des grands à ce petit jeu... faites attention !
Une dette extérieure en constante expansion
Conséquence : la dette extérieure américaine, déjà gigantesque, est en train de s'étendre à la vitesse de l'éclair. Un peu à l'image du cosmos dans lequel nous vivons : elle est en perpétuelle expansion. Rien ne semble pouvoir l'arrêter.
Son montant ? Dix mille milliards de dollars... Pour un produit intérieur brut (PIB) de 14 500 milliards de dollars prévu en 2008. L'Etat américain ne serait-il pas au bord de la faillite ?
Pour être plus concret : dix mille milliards de dollars, ça doit représenter l'équivalent d'un quart de la richesse annuellement produite par la planète !
La limite de ce petit jeu ? L'effondrement du dollar su lui-même...
Contrairement à l'expansion de notre cosmos qui se fait sans limite aucune, la dette américaine aura elle, tôt ou tard, une limite : l'effondrement du dollar sur lui-même...
Quand ? Je n'en sais rien...
En injectant massivement des dollars pour sauver le système bancaire américain de l'implosion, on sème l'inflation et on risque de faire imploser le "système dollar". Car chaque nouveau dollar imprimé fait perdre un peu de sa valeur à tous les dollars déjà imprimés. Un moindre mal ? Pas sûr...
Mon instinct me dit qu'on joue actuellement avec le feu.
Vous vous croyez immunisé ? Détrompez-vous !
1. Car chaque nouvel euro que la BCE imprime fait lui aussi perdre de la valeur aux euros que vous détenez déjà...
2. L'inondation planétaire en dollars a déjà réveillé l'inflation. Elle pourrait aujourd'hui venir l'attiser à souffler dessus de la sorte... Or l'inflation détruit vote patrimoine.
Les matières sont encore la seule parade efficace que je connaisse...
Et l'envolée hallucinante des cours de l'or (et du brut dans une moindre mesure) ne sont que l'expression concrète de cette crainte manifestement de plus en plus partagée.
Car contrairement aux billets qui se déprécient et peuvent tendre vers 0, les matières, or en tête, ne perdent pas de valeur.
Et face à l'inflation qui peut se déchaîner, les matières sont encore la seule parade efficace que je connaisse...
Ce n'est pas un hasard si l'or est passé de 735 $ l'once il y a quelques jours à 916 $ il y a quelques heures... Le brut qui frisait les 90 $ a touché les 130 $ hier avant de se stabiliser à nouveau autour des 108 $.
Publicité
LE CAC 40 AU BORD DU PRECIPICE !
Vous avez des actions en portefeuille ? Elles sont en danger.
Découvrez immédiatement les 5 secteurs à rayer de votre horizon d'investissement ! Profitez également des conseils de nos spécialistes pour acquérir les valeurs VRAIMENT profitables : il suffit de suivre le guide...
La relique barbare s'ébroue !
Simone Wapler
J'étais au bord du désespoir...
Depuis des années, je noircis des pages, j'use des claviers pour prédire que les adorateurs du veau d'or en papier monnaie fonçaient droit dans le mur.
J'ai perdu un temps infini à essayer de convaincre que, lorsque les adorateurs du veau d'or en papier monnaie se rendraient compte de leur erreur, la relique barbare -- l'or -- referait surface.
La catastrophe est là et la relique barbare ne se réveillait point
Je m'apprêtais à me couvrir la tête de cendre, à cacher mon ridicule au fond d'un bunker hermétique pour quelques décennies. Enfin, n'exagérons rien : un laps de temps simplement suffisant pour qu'on m'oublie à jamais, vu que les bipèdes investisseurs ont la mémoire très courte. C'est d'ailleurs pour cela que les éléphants, qui sont des quadrupèdes à bonne mémoire, ne sont pas investisseurs.
Lorsque soudain... Miracle !
Enfin, bref, je m'apprêtais à descendre dans mon bunker et à me contenter de ma réserve d'eau fraîche, lorsque... Miracle ! +11%, oui, l'or prenait 11% en une séance à Wall Street ce mercredi 17 septembre. La plus forte hausse en une journée depuis le 28 septembre 1999.
Dans une marée de monnaie fraîchement imprimée la relique barbare surnage
Ah, peste soit de l'animal, du fossile, de la relique barbare ! Il en aura fallu des tombereaux de papier monnaie fraîchement imprimés pour la sortir de sa torpeur.
Et que je te jette 75 milliards de dollars sur AIG. Paf, prends ça dans la figure, saleté de relique barbare ! Des petits dollars tout beaux, tout nouveaux, nés de la récession.
Et à Moscou un petit coup de 14 milliards d'euros pour soutenir des Bourses qui ont dû être fermées de mardi à vendredi, faute d'acheteurs. Et paf, reprends ça dans la figure, saleté de relique barbare.
Plus une petite pincée de milliards en Asie, pour que des acheteurs puissent s'offrir des actions en berne. Paf, encore un petit coup de pied dans le derrière de la relique barbare.
Alors voilà... La relique barbare est enfin sortie de sa tanière
Elle s'ébroue. Elle s'étire, elle s'échauffe. Elle baille : hou, comme elle a de grandes dents, la relique barbare. C'est pour mieux croquer les petits investisseurs qui ont crû qu'on pouvait s'en passer.
Il est encore temps de sauter dans le grand train du bon sens qui s'ébranle à nouveau. Sur tout repli autour des 860 $.
Pour l'autre catégorie d'investisseurs, notre relique est une amie
Ils savent la caresser dans le sens du poil. Ceux qui avaient un minimum de bon sens, qui n'ont jamais crû qu'on pouvait s'enrichir en s'endettant, soit à titre individuel -- comme aux Etats-Unis --, soit à titre collectif -- comme en France. Ceux qui trouvent louche qu'il y ait toujours plus d'euros et de dollars en circulation que le surcroit de richesse nationale.
Tous ceux là, dans tous les pays, sont déjà montés dans le grand train de l'or. Ils ont résisté à toutes les vicissitudes ; ils ne sont pas descendus à la gare des 800 $, ni à la gare des 900 $, ni à la gare des 1 000 $. Ils ont résisté lorsque la gare des 1 000 $ passée, le train s'est fourvoyé sur une voie de garage et a été ensuite redirigé par un chef de gare malintentionné en rase campagne entre les gares 700 $ et 800 $.
Prochaine gare à 1 000 $
Mais le train a repris sa marche vers la gare des 1 000 $. Par ses fenêtres on aperçoit quelques décombres fumants : Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG, ...
Et après, me direz-vous ? Qui sait ? Le train s'enfonce dans l'inconnu. La gare des 1 000 $ est connue, mais les autres étapes moins. Et puis, qui va lentement va sûrement et qui va sûrement va loin. Notre objectif c'est la gare des 2 300 $. Les sages descendront. Les aventureux continueront. La dernière étape du voyage pourrait explorer des contrées situées à des altitudes totalement inconnues : 3 000 $, 4 000 $. La relique barbare sera alors ballonnée, comme les bulles qu'elle pourfend. Infatuée, elle cédera sa place.
Car l'homme du XXIe siècle ne se promènera pas avec de l'or dans les poches. D'ailleurs, c'est très incommode pour passer les portiques de contrôle dans les aéroports. Le ménage monétaire se fera sans doute. La relique barbare se réassoupira donc. Et le grand voyage de 1999 sombrera dans l'oubli. Jusqu'à la prochaine GAF (Grande Apocalypse Financière)...