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And while we are on the topic- Prurisol??!? Yes of course it brings to mind pruritis, the medical term for itching, but what a lousy name for a drug.
You cannot say it without an effort.
It is the kind of word that you look at for a second before you try to say it
It brings to mind prurient, a poor association
Re-name the drug already, if it succeeds
Another strong effort- saves me form having to google failed psoriasis trials looking for lack of correlation of murine to human results. I actually did start this task, but it is annoying, and slow, and I am lazy.
In the long run does P even matter? It would be awfully nice to see the company take off sooner rather than later, and a deal for P would be so helpful for getting cash for other projects- like money for Mayo and pancreatic CA trial, just one example.
The stock will be driven by B in its various guises and by K, but so much of this benefit is a long way off that one is tempted to get hopes raised by P prospects. Let's say P fails- drop to a dollar likely, my guess. And then how long till it gets pulled back up? B-OM data a long way off- a year, maybe? None of the other drivers will have results for a couple of years. Most important are the phase 2's for K and that will be 2 years from now for results?
So if P fails there is a very long period where CTIX will have no catalysts, and it will be a real test. Something like a darkness before the dawn, whereas dawn could start early with Prurisol success. How daylight savings time impacts the earliness of dawn is not clear to me, in this instance.
A very long night ahead of us, or an early dawn, if one's mind runs toward light and darkness as metaphors.
I suppose considering the recent Boston weather I should have just stuck with rain and sun...
Woke up minutes ago after an overnight shift to find the sun shining here in Boston, finally, after a grim start to May. I thought- ok, pull up the screen and see if the P results have come out with the sun. And tht sun shining meant positive results?
But no.
Look, this is admittedly sort of amusing, all of this attention to the unloved wild card in the CTIX portfolio. All of this focus on P, when B and K are the reasons we really care about this stock.
There is the odd problem of not having the least notion of why abacavir might help in psoriasis- just speculation, which is also fun. There are the striking photos of the mice who got better, but how?
So people are left to speculate.
I enjoy reading opinions of leo watchers who have been around for 4 years when I have been around for 1 year, but I still believe he would have tipped his hand more by now if the data were good.
With week one of the P 2 data watch now gone, I continue to believe that Leo will put less than scintillating P results in a PR with other better news
Thanks for clarifying the role of shareholder and poster- sharing info about why the company may succeed....
Or possibly, for some really great due diligence, we could have a report on trials where the mouse data were marvelous, but the drug ultimately did not pan out. There are bound to be failed psoriasis drugs where the mice got better and the people did not. If I have time tomorrow I will look it up. But sox might have more free time, I don't know
It's so hard to know, isn't it. I think to myself, could there be any POSSIBLE reason why someone might have bought the stock at lower price levels other than those mice with psoriasis getting better?
Is it possible? What could it be- beside pP2??!?
Let's see: maybe someone wanted to average down- that was why I bought for example. or maybe someone liked the fact that ovarian p2 might start. Or that CTIX is now working with Mayo clinic on pancreatic cancer? or that the start of B-UP really is a harbinger of good news about B-OM even though we have not heard so yet? And if there is good news, then maybe Brilacidin for eye indications or for inflammatory bowel disease might eventually work out. Oh yeah and B-HS- maybe that will move forward too, since B-UP will start in some unannounced country. There is Bp3 start. And the possible dismissal of the suit. Or it could be that some people just thought the share price was worth the gamble, or a bargain, or whatever.
But I see what you mean- it must be the "prurisol effect"
Could those "other factors" possibly have anything to do with the recent rise in share price? Maybe? But there they are- those cute little mice with the before and after photos, that must be the reason.
I suppose you are going to pass on this then?
So you want to measure the "prurisol effect " from the stock low point? How convenient.
I wonder if there could be any other factors that might explain the rise- sure, of course there could be.
Or I suppose we could all pretend that it is anticipatory p2P piling on...
You mean after dropping from over 3? That kind of confidence? It all depends on where you want to start measuring confidence
Yes as I said, no data proving any human benefit thus far.
So far as mouse models for Prurisol go: some say 70% chance success for the P2 trial? Has the investing community shown such confidence in Prurisol results? That would be a resounding NO
As far as Kevetrin and mouse models- we have a long way to go to see proof of longer survival in cancer patients, and there are bound to be lots of failures of mouse models that initially looked very promising
Yes I know - you put your money down as a bet that things will turn out well- and I have put down plenty betting on the company in general. The short run though is hard to say
As far as medicine goes, for the most part it is just a job like any other, but sometimes the stakes get high. It all operates on the same principle- treat others as you would wish to be treated.
I suppose the same applies to message boards, right? If I am overly snide, or caustic at times, I don't mind comparisons to leeches, even if I come out on the wrong side.
At least it is interesting- leeches and the placebo effect
Sorry, what was your answer to the question?
My answer has been stated, simple, that the numbers are all there in a computer and it takes little effort to run the program to get meaningful info, so I believe someone knows something by now.
Despite the soft lock, or freeze.
So again, you are certain that CTIX on 5/3 was entirely oblivious of results for P - why?
A very nice post. But the testing in humans had nothing to do with efficacy, which is the point, right?
Your interpretation of Leo's "tells" may be right- I expected more exuberance
What can I say- may patients and the hospital staff know that I do a good job, or maybe better than good, but somehow on the board I am a villain?!
I can accept it- maybe I am somehow a stand in for general discontent with the health care system? The Affordable Care Act? The time your PCP told you you had sciatica and it turned out to be lymphoma wrapping around your spinal cord, or that cough that would not go away after several rounds of antibiotics turned out to be lung cancer?
Or maybe I am not always bullish on the prospects of CTIX? Who knows, I don't.
Sorry that my professional skills provide no insight here- but how could they? No one knows now if P will be a winner or not. Everyone is free to offer his or her opinion about the matter, and I would love to believe the mouse study that provides the optimism about P, but who the heck knows? No one has any great scientific basis for thumbs up or thumbs down- there were no tests in humans to help inform us prior to this phase 2
So my opinion is based on the fact that Leo leans heavily toward tipping his hand, and he has not really done so about Prurisol, and I take the measured response as a negative
That is all there is.
Biodoc may be smart enough to not run his mouth about stuff he does not know- but I cannot resist sticking my neck out here and there
I know, my unbounded- and unfounded, mostly- pessimism about P is a bit over the top. Or it is becoming so.
Not to worry- I am girding myself for the downside of a failure, ready for shares to return toward 1.
Hopeful for good results, but afraid to hope out loud.
It is a bit like the summaries of CTIX particulars that are constantly offered up here- for the newbies, right?
But now I am on a once a day update only not more.
Sorry- I just don't believe he has no access to the data yet.
How do you know where the process is?
P results watch: another day goes by, as Leo searches for some positive news to release with unremarkable P data
Thinking a bit more about why it is not necessary to load up the the truck and go to Beverly: because no one at CTIX knows the most important information for the success of this company. This of course is whether Kevetrin will benefit cancer patients, or not. Prurisol and Brilacidin will be enough to make CTIX a very successful company if they are beneficial, and especially if B-OM and B-UP work.
The biggest catalyst is Kevetrin, and the trials are the key. In Beverly, you could meet with Dr Menon, and he would tell you the same exact thing. Years ago the early science and early experiments and the potential of Kevetrin would have made for a compelling afternoon.
Now it matters not at all, and all that counts is a real difference in survival in those trials that just have not gotten off the ground yet...
Once again we are left to ponder why? Mayo and CTIX are working on Kevetrin for a phase 2 pancreatic CA trial, but it is not being funded directly, they are trying to get a grant. Just looking at this fact suggests 1) the data are not that good , or 2) CTIX has no money, maybe 3)no one has the time to work on it.
When will we know if K works? Maybe 2 years from now? Maybe 3?
I was not trying to get an update on where the company is with any of the items I listed. But it was nice of you to provide this information. It is so difficult, I find, to get from hour to hour on the board these days, waiting for the next large compilation of known data. Due diligence is so critical that a cuckoo clock like predictable summation is reassuring
With respect to Beverly and Krishna and Leo I would prefer to leave them in peace so they can get some work done.
But, I would agree, it is one of the benefits of investing in a small struggling company that a luminary like Dr Menon would take the time to talk.
I just hope his drug works
You mean they are not announcing the country? The undetermined country? Even though they are talking with the unknown country's ministry of health?
I woulda thought this would be good for multiple PR's, as they talk with local provincial national levels, and they can announce that various meetings are upcoming, or have already transpired, without giving away anything of substance
My sense is- generally speaking-that I would prefer to have leo and Krishna and the team working, starting the Kevetrin trials, and Moving B-UP forward, and getting the gram negative drug tweaked to kill pseudomonas, rather than talking to me.
Remember: they have already met with and talked to all kinds of people on this board, back when Youssef started it all, and then, one by one, many people followed and reported back.
I have no general objection to confirmation and expansion, or to peace love and understanding, for that matter
The Beverly pilgrimage is well-worn already, right?
You mean go pick up a hat from Leo? What fun.
I see what you mean about the diligence. I mean, after all, how can I know what I own when I have not been to Beverly?
The failure to drive 29 miles has been weighing on me, weighing on me...actually not so much.
Another thought, though: we loaded up the truck and we drove to Beverly-
I do enjoy the thought of a visit, if I just picture it with Jethro and Ellie Mae and Granny...
I thought I explained my logic which as you note has nothing to do with a degree.
And of course the delays for all of the other products are comprehensible.
Let's see: easy to analyze data that is already recorded, hard to start trials for new cancer drugs
I would say that every hour and every day there is no news now that we have reached May is increasing the likelihood that P data not good.
How long would it take to run through data that someone is bound to have entered already in a computer somewhere? Not very long.
And you want good news to get out, and you can talk to potential partners after you have released the news, no need to do so beforehand.
Oh yeah- while you are at it ctix- how about an update on the gm negative drug? Or some real news about Kp2?
instead we get: K phase 2 ovarian trial paperwork is now at the post office, while we check the envelope for proper postage- more later. And yes, you can use forever stamps on a trial that takes forever to start...
yes much good can come from positive P results
the question for the short run, is how much bad from negative P data? Back to 1?
I am impressed with the guts of you out there are adding shares prior to P results, hoping for good news
Just cannot do it
Huh? Prob will know only P results by then
Starts of p2 for K expected- at some point, sigh- and will change nothing
Start of p3 for B is expected and will change nothing.
Doubt he will turn up potentially important cards like B-OM and B-UP
So July will not mean much as a deadline
But P results will help a lot if good and hurt in the short run if bad(duh)
so much for a friday surprise with P news
will move back into land of pessimism, and wait
whatever happened to K phase 2's...sigh
Wouldn't it be nice...
if we got positive Prurisol reults today, without having to wait another week , or two, or three, or even four
This could be the day CTIX finally begins to move
Can the stock surprise?
I suppose I would settle for a B-UP update, but we will not get that either
Good new bad news. Since I have no great faith in positive Prurisol results I believe we will not hear about the trial until there is positive news around to offset trial failure
3/31- B-UP moves forward but Jorgensen on the way out
The good news bad news model for PR.
So P news will come with ovarian p2 finally starting , or more about B-UP, maybe something about B
Do I have any basis for suspecting not good results- none. Hoping it'll work because then CTIX may actually start to move on up
predicting the next PR : CTIX announces lyophilization of Prurisol data !
Somewhere between soft lock and freeze, the data fell prey to the same process that the actual Brilacidin compound recently underwent. The company will now need to attempt to recover the data, in a process known as the "unfreeze" or alternately, "hard unlock."
Mayo and CTIX are really moving forward, right?
They are applying for a grant that they probably will not get and....then what...? Really big plans for a phase 2 for pancreatic CA- but no funding for now
Now if they can get money for Prurisol maybe they can move some of the pahse 2's forward
who knew. Fascinating.
I need to get out more.
Or read more.
Or both.
Thanks for tantalizing possible hint of where the trial might be
Tell us more, tell us more, my friend
Yes I recall your prior post about Canada- if that was you-but pray good sir, share your insight.
admit you want to know the location of the undisclosed country, already
Please continue post such helpful recaps- what if a poor newbie had to look for more than an hour or two for such a compilation-
I still prefer the more offbeat and awkward PR's, what can I say
You can't make this stuff up: a quick look back at PR 3 weeks ago, one of the best, a true cryptic classic
Have we learned any more about the B-UP trial? Talk about a weak PR- a local ethics committee says it can go ahead, endorsing proof of concept, while we await news from the ministry of health from an undisclosed country? This is just the most off the wall loser PR in recent memory, and I just hate to see it fade into the mists. Please, please CTIX, some followup.
Happier memories? Amazing songs and performances by Prince-
of course it's premature
I am just guessing, which is all we can do
I think we would all agree of course that B and K are the franchise products
simply wondering about impact of P, a CTIX wild card
easy to say good upside with strong results- money from a partnership, lots of potential patients
the extent of the downside not easy in the short run
long run agreed little impact
but I am wondering about buying right now(to average down) hence the concern