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Do you know what the letter "A" means?
Good god - you guys should seriously ditch your shares if this is your actual thought process.
Well said, Raf. JT was also pissed because he had just placed 20+ million shares to two rather large investment banks at $18/share. Not that hard to figure out why he had a pissy tone on the call.
Leerink is $26, and yes, they’re one of the best.
Amarin in the low teens is as good a bet as there is....
Good stuff TTE, thanks for sharing.
Price target is $26 from Leerink.
JT was pissed for several reasons. Obviously the 3 month delay, but don’t forget about the 25M shares he just placed to Goldman and JPM at $18/share. Now we’re about to have 25M shares traded below $15 TODAY. Ouch.
HDG hates EXAS comparisons (despite what AMRN is trying to replicate) and can ignore this message. No worries.
As I’ve said previously.....CPAs are not to be underestimated. JT playing chess to perfection. Patience will be rewarded, IMO. 2020 is going to be our EXAS 2017.
From my pharmacist:
I’ve gotten to know my pharmacist quite well over the past 6 months and every time that I pick up a refill, I ask if she’s seen Vascepa numbers pick up. She’s always very kind and checks the system to see how many people currently get V from this pharmacy. Over the past 5 months, the answer has always been something like “Nope, you’re the newest person getting V”. Today, I called to see if my refill was ready and she says “Yes, it came through, but we’re all out again.” She mentioned that she remembered that I was a shareholder and had been excited to tell me that she’s seen a bit of an inflection. She also mentioned that it’s a low volume pharmacy, so to see a meaningful increase in any one drug is pretty rare.
About as anecdotal as it comes, but we’re starting to hear a few more of these stories pop up.
Fun times ahead!!!
OMG....I love this line in an otherwise very gentle & vulnerable post....
"and I know you have made much more of a contribution to the EPA initiative than I have..."
Has Marki been teaching you a little Minnesota passive aggressiveness? ;)
Correct. Expect bigger pops at qtrs (i.e. sales) and wait for the MOAB in January 2020. Thero will still be conservative, his guidance will surely be < $1B, but 2020 will be our EXAS 2017 moment. Going to be a fun 18 months if no acquisition.
HDG - relax on the EXAS references. It's the most similar comparison to what we're trying to do. Don't freak, man. PS, your're about 40, get your doc to order you a Cologuard. 40 isn't too early.
IMO, people should start to check thier PPS expectations for FDA approval of sNDA since it could happen within the next 6 weeks.
Keep in mind that no sane person believes that we don't get a label of at least > 150 mg/dl. I'd say that's a 95% certainty. Think the market doesn't realize that? If so, see AHA example in November 2018. That leaves very little "pop potential". If V is granted 135 mg/dl, maybe we get a little jump, but I've got to think the market is probably anticipating this type of label. Anything better is gravy, but don't bank on it, set your expectations accordingly and be careful with your options.
$30 on FDA approval is silliness.
Talked to a co-worker this morning, health came up. He mentioned he's on a beta blocker for blood pressure and his doc also told him to take fish oil. He spends $30 at CostCo every month or two on fish oil. I told him all about Vascepa. He called his doc about an hour ago and got a 1 year script. I made sure we sent his doc NEJM and a few other pubs (ADA, etc) - doc was blown away that he hadn't heard of Vascepa yet.
What's coming can't be stopped.....
Only problem is that 650k docs could prescribe V and we're targeting less than 1/6 of them. This DTC is going to be one for the ages!
PS - we're not evening talking EU yet! Lol
OGM, I love this!!!
Raf - make sure he 'gifts' you (and your wife) the first $30k of profits, to avoid taxes. You could even split it between 2020 and 2021 to make it $60k.
I would have taken that bet in a heartbeat......
In other words, the "fish oil" connotation and confusion from no one else having success in CVD O3 trials, caused the B+.
Thanks for passing along.
If you didn’t get chills reading that passive, then you don’t own enough shares!!!
You probably know better than me..... ;)
I know big pharm, small pharm, even diagnostic sales reps that all make close to $200k, with bonus, not including employer costs. I won’t discuss this any further. Believe what you want, but....
Don’t be in La La Land....
I’m going to church tomorrow morning to pray that Amarin doesn’t hire reps with a $55k base, if they exist. I don’t not have experience in this space. Base + bonus + benefits + taxes + supporting infrastructure is closer to $250k, all in. This is also the hottest labor market, basically ever. Remember that we have 400 spots with tens of thousands of apps. We shouldn’t be looking at newbies.
Anyways, not really the point of my post to nitpick sales rep cost. It’s not materially off. My point was that management is 100% justified in raising cash right now. They’d be complacent to not do so.
Card - anything new you’ve noticed in prescribing habits or attitudes of your colleagues?
PS - don't ever underestimate CPAs......
Here’s some simple math, cause I’m a dummy CPA like JT.....
Sales force expansion: 400 sales reps x 250k/year x 6 months = $50M
Massive DTC advertising: who knows, but call it $10M a month to start x 6 months = $60M
Supplier investments to lock down necessary supply = ???
Strategic, small “bolt ons” or patent deals/acquisitions = ???
Unlikely, but delay of PDUFA.....
In other words, unless you’re going to strike a rich deal in the EU with a shit ton of upfront cash, why wouldn’t you raise cash? You’d roll with $200M and assume we’re cash flow + already? Lol. It’d be insane not to. JT owes no explanation - would not be fulfilling his fiduciary duty to not be adequately prepared for these events + a little risk management.
You can argue discount all day, but we did close at $21.07 that day. Guessing JT would have loved to be at $23 as well.
Don’t ever forget how smart CPAs are.....
Look, I’d certainly support a convertible note at a higher share price and nominal interest rate (like EXAS pulled off), but the difference is that we don’t even have an FDA approved expanded label. No way they could have pulled off a financing deal like that. Wait until expanded label? JT has clearly decided that’s too late.
Unless someone has better insight than JT, why wouldn’t you assume he walked down both avenues and decided dilution was the best path?
PS - be nice to CPAs. They’re super duper smart.
The negative sentiment here is insane. Amarin hasn’t received a reasonable bid for the company, so they’re preparing for one of the largest DTC campaigns in pharma history and everyone all of the sudden thinks JT is tripping all over his feet. Remarkable. IMO, JT waited as long as he could to see if a reasonable bid would present itself prior to sNDA and is now making a prudent move to enable Amarin to blitz the market with V everywhere. Why so salty? People in trouble with options again?
Also, no EU deal is dealing. Relax and enjoy your weekend!
Is that the liklihood of my retirement tomorrow, Tuesday, in 6 months, 12 months or 18 months?
Cool - thanks Sam. About as expected with a little larger drop than Memorial Day with most people taking at least 2 days off last week.
Should see a nice double digit jump next week back to the 63k - 64k range, with some pent up demand being filled this week.
Agreed, and a similar argument could be made for the EU where CVD is a MUCH larger burden of the healthcare costs than in Australia.
Approx. 14% of Australian adults have CVD
Approx. 45% of US adults have CVD
I'll go out on a limb and say that US CVD treatment costs much more than 2.5X of Australia. I hear Kangaroos and dingoes have low saturated fat.....
US healthcare costs are ~ 2.5X, per patient, higher than Australia. I don't have the #s, but I'd think that CVD treatment would be a multiple even higher than that. US ICER results will be awesome.
CG is once every 3 years as well, vs. a lifetime EPA swallower. WW vs. just US also helps you get there.
Do you think JZ is pissed that his 10b5 connected right now? You've got to think that when he entered his "minimum strike price" of $20 or $22 (which would have been 6, 12 or 24 months ago when he entered in to the plan) that the PPS would be significantly higher at this point. Not scoffing, but Raf's account has about as much gain as 1/3 of JZ's holding prior to this sale. Raf was never the CEO of the company. Nice work Raf.
And....JZ will pay tax at ordinary rates.....
PPS.......
Interesting how hard that $350M forecast zapped in January, but for sure the right move by Thero in hindsight. PPS is more earned at this point as it tracks with 16x slightly forward looking revs. A deserved price at this point, considering WW market and broad label.
Exact Sciences (EXAS) has traded at a similar rev multiple, even before their pipeline started to develop. Although we haven't heard many details, I have a feeling that this crafty management has some creative ideas up their sleeve. Some of you will argue that Cologuard doesn't have the same patent life issues, but they also have a market about 1/5 the size (WW) of Vascepa.
As for PPS guessing after label expansion. Oh, why not, it's Friday night after a great week. I'll say $25 with label > 150 mg/dl and $27 with label > 135 mg/dl.
It all depends on 2020 revs and I'd be disappointed if we don't sniff $1B.....
Agreed. Every dip being bought at huge volume. Retail being replaced with pros.
Said another way, the US Health System gets a return (reduction of CVD costs) of 23% of all Amarin revenues! That's pretty impressive!
(Please keep stupid high level in mind)
After looking on page 13 of the ICER report, maybe 60k - 70k isn't a bad stupid-high level number for event + follow up years. Keep in mind that the majority of the events likely came in the later years when the incidence separation curve increases.
Okay, so let's be even more conservative and say 60k for event + follow up years. That's still $5.5B saved on 3M patients on V. And that doesn't include anything for successive events.
Yes, sir. My stupid high level #s are also likely stupid conservative. I did this in the spirit of JT.
The ICER results are going to be awesome.
It's actually a harder # to find than you'd think. I obviously started doing what you did, but realized some of those #s extrapolate lost wages (for the individual), etc. in to their costs.
I want to find the cost on the US health system for an MI, stroke, etc and found numbers ranging from $50k - $100k after sampling about 10 sources. Hence, I landed at $75k for my stupid high level analysis.
Kennedy also has another 934,000 shares coming his way when Amarin's revenues climb between $300M to $1B milestones.
The 58k is not representative of his overall equity stake in AMRN.
Thero has over 10M addl shares coming his way. Try $280M.
Thanks for the link. At a stupid high level, the numbers already start to get stupid ridiculous....
6 people on V for 5 years = $49k
Do not have precise #s, but let's just just say one event costs $75k on average.
If you have 3 million people taking V, that's 500k less events. 500k less events yields a benefit (after V cost) of $13B.
That doesn't even consider the recurring annual cost for MI and stroke patients for the rest of their life. I've read that can be $20k - $25k per year.
Then....think about the reduction in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th events.
As Thero said...... that should be helpful in the pharmacoeconomic results.
The understatement of the decade.
Astronomical volume and perfectly steady rise does not exactly scream a day of shorts skirting out. Seems like we’ve hit the radar on some larger investors, IMO....
Fair enough, and enforces that there are hundreds of thousands of GPs that are unaware of Vascepa. Turned on one GP yesterday, who personally called me back an hour later to ask more about V. He's now a proponent and will prescribe R-It label in his practice (he said "dozens of patients").
What do you do when there's 500k fruit trees with low hanging fruit?
You bring in Dole and Chiquita to pick that fruit.
Cal, I hear ya, but Pfizer still had 3,000 reps slangin’ Lipitor for a reason.
Nice work with your doc. Surprised a Card still suggested Gen L.
BTW - I'm aware that Amarin is currently targeting 50k of the 500k that I refer to. That's my point. There's low hanging fruit all over the place.