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good point... also similarly ,if he did not have good data backing him up would not he have done a 1 to 6 stock split instead of 1 for 4? 1 for 4 sounds like cutting it too close to the $5.00 requirement, when the stock was around 1.40 ..... more indication results should be very positive IMO...
beware that in most very successful bios that retail get almost completely shaken out and tuts and BP own 98% ... saying "sell immediately after PR" is the kind of advice that will lead you to being one of the many retails shaken out...
Anyone know how many times , in past efforts, a combo pill has been put through clinical trials targeting AD? As a follow on note... having a drug that just came off patent, which is owned by one of the titan BP, (and with no competition from other molecules in its niche) as your combo drug partner is great ...
273 . Viagra combo ...who knows...
"If you read the preclinical data and delve deep into the mouse models of alzheimers - with the sigma 1 knock out mice vs. the mice on anavex 2-73 --- there are objective measures of tau protein markers that prove that the drug works;"....... YMB Epilepsy expert...
Past AD mouse studies may have been "not very reliable" but ..... because they targeted mis-folded protein build up... So far ,mouse and human results seem corrrelated with 273 IMO..
#21: ""Considering that mammals have similar neurophysiology (at the microscopic level - all nerves, synapses work the same) - the implication is obvious to the scientists amongst us""... i.e. the mouse trials are golden...
AVXL will save society significant money and so from a political point of view (the point of Hillaries views) do not lump all companies and meds together ... it should be clear that some healthcare companies should be liked by the Clintons... For example Generic Drug companies will also be in the sweet spot as they also save society money... Hillary (and like minded politicians) want to reduce drug costs or at least keep their prices under better control... Since AVXL is a new drug for very large indications, it will be a cost saver... Raising prices just to gouge, and often on small niche drugs mainly is what is being mainly discussed... 273 plus fits the sweet spot in this debate just like generics drugs do in that it will help society deal with escalating costs...and the beauty to Anavex is that it will be able to do this while being incredibly profitable.. Do not jump to conclusions and this all Bio techs are the same in this discussion... Its pretty great to be behind a company that can potentially help so many millions of sick but to do it while reducing society costs....and at the same time be highly profitable for Anavex...With a large indication market size prices can still be affordable at the individual level unlike some other new drugs introduced targeting more niche markets,,,
Also like the Germain angle to this...Both the late Dr. Alzheimer and Dr. Missling are of Germain heritage..... I think AVXL should purchase the Missling homestead in Germany ... like Biogen bought the Alzheimer family home in Germany a few years ago..
6-passed MJFF due diligence,
7-new appointees to SAB (both Ad and Epilepsy),
8-Dr. V trying to increase his stake at all means..,
9-the pre-clinical epilepsy results,
10-the pre-clinical AD results (before 2A trial),
11.-the other sigma 1 confirmatory findings "Avanir/Otsuko, Concert pharma, MJFF previous work on sigma 1 and others ,allS is positive I am aware of.....including Anavex 371 on sigma-1
Recent grant details for epilepsy:
"Johns Hopkins University (JHU) was awarded an estimated $7.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to clinically test an Alzheimer's drug, which could possibly delay or stop the onset of the disease.
The 5-year grant will fund the ongoing HOPE4MCl Phase 3 clinical trial for AGB101 (a proprietary low-dose formulation of levetiracetam that is used as an anticonvulsant usually given to treat certain kinds of seizures in patient with epilepsy.). The research previously spearheaded by neuroscientist Michela Gallagher found that this drug when given to patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment appears to calm brain's hyperactivity."
This JCU grant is to treat the symptoms and not the cause. Since 2-73 works on upstream pathology , and has very positive results to date, a grant would seem to be a good possibility...
MJFF similar company maybe grant for Epilepsy?
I have wondered about this many times....I assume Epilepsy is as bad as Parkinson, so would think a grant for phase 2 (or 2A) Epilepsy should be possibly (much like the Parkinson one by MJFF)..... etrade do you know the details on the Tapimmune grant u mentioned? The fact the Epilepry preclinical trials were so great should help in this regard i assume...
Add Actavis as an additional company that would be a great partner for 2-73 Plus (and is definitely watching Anavex closely now).......
Cheers
Nice correlation of sigma-1 targeting compounds disclosed..
Thanks for the link George to the MJFF/Anavex trial details. It was interesting to hear that MJFF has already funded a pre-clinical trial targeting Sigma-1 receptor compound ....and the results were reported very good..... and also Concert Pharma recently had very good results in pre-clinical trials with their sigma-1 agonist compound... and of course Anavex has had great results both pre-clinical and now from their P2aA ... So to me it seems the Sigma-1 targeting is clearly working , as evidenced by the above... Also, it is clear that MJFF knows a lot more about Sigma 1 science than has been discussed ...and clearly they did not grant to Anavex just because they had some kind of obligation to Anajex---like someone said on this board recently... BTW Anavex is way ahead of Concert Pharma in Sigma 1 receptor trials....
Could be some large military markets also (similar to general concussions mentioned):
-concussions from being near explosives (air shock waves) and ;
-PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Discorder) which is different and unique, but is a large brain illness..
Could the combined Off Label prescriptions for Anavex 273 be even as big as the $65 billion Alzheimers market?
"""Any doctor can prescribe almost any approved medication, even if the malady was not what the drug was approved for by the FDA. The FDA has already certified the drug is safe. It is then up to the doctor and the patient to see if could have an ancillary benefit to a side condition. That is strictly patient doctor decision making. I think the Off Label prescribing of this drug will be in the billions, potentially. Indeed, it may be the biggest off label scripted drug in the history of medicine. It is a Brain Function pill. Making the thought process clearer and stronger. How can this pill not be sought after by every person on the planet, who needs a stronger mind, one less afflicted by a dozen mental conditions, including, for instance depression possibly or the myriad attention deficient problems. HUGE off label market."""
Gilead can write a check now for $24 billion ($14 Billion on hand plus the $10 new debt)... but this is small compared to what they have available for an acquisition(s) since they are cash flowing about $22 billion per year on top of that... this gives them a lot of room for more debt and also Buy outs are usually financed by a combination of equity and debt...IMO Gilead could spend up to $2 or $3 hundred billion on acquisitions (of promising Biotech plays) with their current capital structure...
Gilead just issues $10 billion in debt at about 2.5% average int.....but interestingly, Gilead has about $14 billion in cash available already (so $24 billion now including the debt issued) and is generating $5.5 billion per quarter in free cash flow already...so the big question, why issue the 10 billion debt? It is obvious to me that first of all they are taking advantage of current low interest rate window to cash up big time...to get ready for an acquisition (s)...... IMO also they are the number one contender to making a purchase offer on AVXL...Why Gilead? Well they move much quicker than the likes of Pfiser and Alli and others in the field and they trust their internal scientific judgement and common sense ...
IMO Pfiser would have the most synergy but not as fast moving as Gilead on big opportunities...Lastly it is obvious Gilead is more of an elephant hunter than a antelope hunter...
The initial trial participants were already well into Part B of the trial (on July 22 when Missling said they had asked for an extension).....So it seems they must also have been having good results in the early part of the part B trial .... Also interesting that already (early in part B) they had concluded they wanted longer than 26 weeks on the drug... This hints strongly that the early part of part B was going good at that point... Also, as someone else said on YMP Missling stated that "the initial results were good" when he was talking about part B.........did he meaning that initial results being part A or the early part of part B? I think the latter...
getting BP interested in a small biotech is very similar to in sports getting a major franchise team interested in a off the radar athlete... professional team scouts are scared of making a mistake and using their common sense (if they really like a unknown player) and tend to go after the same players all the other teams are going after even if their common sense tells them an off the radar player is better...Why? because if they go with the mainstream thinking and a mistake is made and the player does not turn out they can at least say that it was not their mistake only since all others liked the player also... Another facet to this is BP (and Big Teams) think a lot about what both the industry, and their backers, and public will initially think about their new recruits (acquisitions/partnerships) after initially announced and sometimes this keeps them from using their common sense and moving on what is obvious..... What changes this, and in AVXL's case IIMO (and the same in Sports) when some BP are reviewing the AVXL pipeline, and they start to notice that other BP are also starting to close in and like the same science of AVXL ... this is what makes a deal happen... Call it the art of the deal or whatever...So smart company management will facilitate this process... and very smart players agents, in sports, will do the same thing...Since Missling has M&A background I think AVXL should do well...
This stock has been greatly de-risked already IMO..
--Michael J Fox (MJFF) has de-risked the science significantly...they do not through money away blindly and they have expertise in this niche of Dementia. Do you not think they looked under the hood carefully? If things go well they may pay beyond phase 2 for parkinson -- reducing risk even more..
--the interim results from phase 2a have de-risked the science significantly ..this is major and obvious.
--the original inventor who signed over the rights and then trying to sneakily get rights back is another de-risking clue
-the huge line up of top scientists (including the Israeli developer of 371) on the scientific panel and Missling himself show further de-risking (do you not think they looked under the hood before getting on board)... and I am thinking that Abraham brought 371 into the fold since he liked 273 and liked the whole pipeline..
--the large institutional ownership for an OTC company is almost unheard of --again further de-raking..
In the end if you want to sell, and succumb to the bashers attempt to rattle your nerves , you can sell, but we have tried to warn you... Notice that both the soft and hard bashers just throw out low price targets without any fundamental justification -- other than technical witch doctor charts or references to what "big guys" and MM are manipulating...the references to the sky is falling in the stock market , like is just as lame IMO (some pretty scary religious sects use this scare tactic to get new members.....
liked the fishing link...I would suggest the fish would be very good on the pacific side, since the strong current flushes and low industrialization there...I would be much more leery to eat certain fish from the sea of cortez side... Reef Groupers to 200 lbs on huge unexplored reefs...wow.. Groupers are also called ling cod...they r great...
Dr. V, BTW, if he has come to his senses will realize that he stands the best chance , by far , by supporting AVXL.....consider his 6% royalty alone.. This is on profits, but on a block buster drug no competition drug margins should be like 95%...so in effect its like 6% of sales...and look at the team AVXL has to move it forward..the best IMO... With the success of the drug what is the royalty worth, it could be worth tens of billions, and with a buy out I believe the royalty stays intact...
Dr. V goes back to Greece to try to retake (abscond with) the 273 rights he had fully signed away. When i first heard this i could not help think that this is extremely positive; and that Dr. V. must have known how positive 273 was doing in their research and development testing... I imagine how his emotions could have changed to a feeling of being left at the sidelines at a likely blockbuster drug he was a key inventor in... As for my DD though the main point is that to me it points to the likliness that he , a top research insider, was privy to very positive information and he acted on it..
mao...get a metal detector and a small spin casting fishing rod and go to some secluded beaches they have there on your time off ... maybe take a local with you...just an idea to make it more fun...I heard it was tropical there with some nice beaches..
I agree and I had also considered this as a major positive factor in the AVXL story...sad in a way but it is the reality...and as you say if you do not know about this just look into ISR, its all there...
I have never seen a company with so much "soft bashing" as AVXL has right now...looks like someone is very desperate to hold this down..have seen Posters pretending to ask sincere questions ; or making deceiving comments that actually are about different stock altogether but no mention of which stock is being discussed...... why so much soft bashing here now? I am thinking hard bashing would be immediately disregarded with AVXL and likely they know it..hence the softer bashing technique...
AVXL warrants have fixed prices of .30 and 0.42. You can see the docs they are on the $10 million financing done on March 2014 --- and not to be confused with the $10 million financing done with LPC on July 2013.. On the weekend I was reviewing the docs for both of these.. The LCP financing was very unique, and had no warrants and was a commitment to purchase at market prices and should still be in effect ...not sure how much is left. The company just has to give them notice and they have to buy stock at market price...A very good deal for the co and I think it came with the CEO somehow (same date about)....The march 2014 has the 66 million warrants as well as the convertible debenture..It was very dilutive but based on where things were then not too bad..but definitely goo that the warrants do not have the terms like AEZS with constantly spiralling lower conversion prices-- like a "death spiral"... Noticed that many comments here on this board seem to get the two 10 million financings mixed up..likely since both are for the same amount... IMO many thought LPC is promoting this stock but to me it looks like they have incentive to keep price down based on the july 2013 financing....The way I look at the March 2014 financing is it will bring the co about $33 million after warrants are exercised and dilute about 100 million shares --66 mill for warrants and 34 mill for the debentures...so about 0.32 per share roughly...I thought this was ok...I would like to know who bought the debenture financing as this was not shown..
yes the bio-bandits have arrived...This is in a way good news since it shows they want in on this company and see its potential... They will try to crack weak minds with subtle psychological strategies...they are big on using "fades" (both day time and longer week time) as they know investors hate fades and downward trends...even if the drops are small and meaningless... expect to see a lot of small trades walking the stock down in this pursuit...Today was another example of a different strategy where they show their "power" and ability to cause a stock to go down while with good news...,make them seem super human is the idea... Many of these individuals are being investigated by various agencies already and I would not be surprised if they are hiding out on the OTC since the Nasdaq is watching them too closely...As you saw the volume today they are willing to commit a lot of capital to make a stock do what they want (and if you have the capital it is "EASY" to hold any stock down) and my strategy here is to be patient..do not sell a share, unless you have to, and do not let them steel shares from you......they see retail longs as easy pickings on the OTC...That said ,again, patience is the key IMO...
unless buy out companies are already circling the wagon and he want to get the bonus crystallized...
Another great quote from today (many intelligent posters in this name):
"AVXL has been working on SIGMACEPTOR technology for roughly 10 years. A real drug development takes years. The market doesn't like hype without results. Since 2012 they have shown positive testing on rats and now more results on human test. This is the real deal friend. It takes time and patience to get to the end. Let the days and swing traders make their quick bucks. In the end longs will win this one."
Quote of the day from YMB:
"This run will get us to at least $2.50, maybe as high as $4. Then the next priority is uplifting to Nasdaq, perhaps without even a reverse split necessary (or 1 to 3 rs) That'll get us to $5-$10, where institutions will pile in, and we double from there, all BEFORE the next 2-73 trial update.
It might happen even sooner when we get patent or begin Epilespy phase 2 trial."
stunning that a vxl has gone from an obscure unknown stock (more or less) two weeks ago to being the most talked about stock on the internet, and main message boards... I believe its been #1 here on IHUB for at least the last two days... would be cool to see a trend line graph of IHUB or YMB readership over recent and longer term time...... I predict the frenzy on the stock to only increase as the runway is massively long. ..... One thing I really like is this company joins together two critical parts----- namely a great business opportunity and fantastic management ... and for me historically I have focused on management first...but actually they are both very important..
From AVXL website it lists target markets for its drugs and market size:, as follows
-AD..does not say size for this biggest segment but I have heard $50 to $80 Billion
-Epilepsy $4 Bill and growing fast
-Depression: $11 billion
-Neuropathic pain: $5 billion
and then it lists about $25 billion in Cancer markets it is targeting..Not sure when this was last updated As a side note I was wondering if any of the sigma-1 type drugs would be beneficial to Brain cancer...never seen it mentioned... Also lately many other CNS diseases have been talked about at various places where AVXL is discussed, such as : Parkinsons, Huntingtons, Lou Garics, concussion etc, .... I
last comment on the patent from me. We are rock solid in every way and there absolutely "no issue" -- this is fabricated in my conclusion.. Dr. V owns has no right to 273 or other drugs of AVXL ... I thought we put that "to bed" two days ago....not sure why it is being still questioned..as there are no questions.. That being said, I do agree that Dr. V can be a pain in the side unless he cooperates....He can be a pain by partnering with third world sweat shop drug labs and selling into third world and criminal markets.. Bangladish and India are big makers in the "black market" ...actualy Bangledish does not belong to the world patent agreement and so they are a rogue maker... This would only be a pain , and of little financial consequence , for aVXL as it would not affect the bigger markets such as North America , Japan, or Western Europe..... Its best we get Dr. V on board... and yes for sure we do not need KKD involved in this at all...
I thought it odd the SA author seems to want to contact Dr. V so much...and seems to be feathering his bed already if you read things closely...For example he wrote that it was "understandable" that Dr. V was, as i recall something like , reneging on his written contract ... One other angle is that BP that would like to buy AVXL would pull strings like DR. V behind the scenes to leverage advantage somehow...Interesting that the july 22 news was reported in Indian newspapers where the author lives...
great DD WW....FYI it is a stat holiday in Canada today..
keep up the great work
the warrant holders (66 mil) helped (and were a blessing to) many to get their positions post July 22 news at low prices IMO ... without the warrants it could have immediately gapped high... The warrant holders likely wanted to diversify their risk out some but I would guess at least 1/3 will stay long term..The basher/accumulators helped hold it down some also... A slow and steady rise is a good thing though IMO....so actually what is happening/happened is a perfect situation...
Thanks for contacting DR. Mcfarland....and that was a question I had that you asked....,..pleasantly surprised the good doctor got back to you that quick.
area code 403 is Alberta Canada...interesting he chose a Canadian lawyer..