Retired
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$AVXL options have been challenging and I've traded them frequently since the first day they were available. I'm primarily a long stock position trader, but use options as a speculative kicker,and I also routinely sell covered calls. Often times I end up legging into bull call spreads or ratio spreads when I oversell covered calls versus the long calls.
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For me long call options are for fun and speculation. I basically get 1 or 2 long call bets correct a year and then piss it all away on losing long call bets for a net break even. A common pattern for a diehard optimist.
That's simply the sequential numbering for the OLE trial, not that it's a P4 trial.
OLE of Phase 2b/3 Study ANAVEX2-73-AD-004 (ATTENTION-AD)
DTBP is an account specific margin calculation based upon first having the minimum equity requirement of $25K, and the loan value of the security being traded.
I embrace the "Unknown" and the process of discovery and learning so some types of FUD simply don't work on people like me or is it actually us?
I have a neighbor who has a crystal, herb, or candle for whatever you may need. LOL
The possibility of so called "super responders" is interesting. I wonder if there will be a commonality found within their genetic profiles?
This daily chatter about FDA this, FDA that, is getting so drone. I'd absolutely LOVE the Aussies or other regulatory agency simply leapfrog the damn FDA and do some sort of an approval.
That's a fun wildcard that is not out of the realm of possibility.
What I'm finding entertaining is we're arguing various degrees of positive outcomes. P2b/3, P3, P4...whatever it takes... LOL (220, 221, whatever it takes; Mr.Mom)
One point I definitely agree on is the true value of precision medicine has yet to be fully implemented.
Wise predictions!
Agreed.
Just a side note, I'm honestly as impatient as the next person on the pace of progress, but I am super hopeful that as precision biomarkers are agreed upon with regulatory agencies, future indications will be approved faster.
The accelerated approval for Lecanemab "LEQEMBI" was based upon a Phase 2.
"Accelerated Approval is based on Phase 2 data showing a reduction in amyloid-beta plaques in early AD patients treated with LEQEMBI™."
https://investors.biogen.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-approves-leqembitm-lecanemab-irmb-under-accelerated-approval
Of note, there was a concurrent P3 already completed and ready to read out the top line at the same time as the accelerated approval based upon solely the P2.
$AVXL was a pure trading position from 2015 to about 2018 and that's when I liked the story enough to change it to an investment position.
So what was the cost basis of the shares you sold at $9.20 and what was the holding period since you're claiming victory yet nobody asked. So I'm asking.
I've been on the $AVXL buy side since 2018 and that's never changed, so that's my boring story.
Top notch entertainment for sure!
I'm a retired position trader. I grasp many investing tactics and strategies and my timeframe for $AVXL has always been years not weeks.
For Alzheimer's disease, blarcamesine will be granted an Accelerated Approval with no need for another P3 precision medicine formated trial, only a follow up P4 for confirmation.
I do believe the precision model will be utilized for patient selection in other planned trial indications.
LOL, penny wise yet pound foolish. Enjoy your $0.46 gain.
$AVXL is not a "normal circumstances" type position in my opinion.
My advice is to be wary of letting technicals get in the way of making a good trade based upon other criteria.
Over my career playing with speculative equity, "Scared money don't make money"
"pivotal" is definitely a maybe, but I'm an optimist.
Future trial designs will be pivotal phase 2/3 trials from the start.
When a company has a suite of biomarkers to integrate into trial designs, it increases the ability of a company and regulators to agree on earlier pivotal phase 2/3 studies.
Nice article, nice science, shitty stock.
$AVXL has a strong balance sheet with no debt and a simple equity structure, $NWBO doesn't.
I know $NWBO is a penny stock promoters favorite here, but comparing an lifelong OTC level company like $NWBO to one that has long since advanced to the NASDAQ Global Select as $AVXL has done is naive.
The real issue is the piss poor capital structure and negative common shareholder equity due to debt and issuance of a new preferred series of convertible shares because the common stock is worthless.
I'm excited to hear more about the MJFF biomarker breakthrough that can "objectively and reliably detecting the disease at the molecular level — even before the onset of symptoms."
This discovery will no doubt become integral to trial design and patient selection in the future. But, I read it may take up to 2 years to scale up the technology for use.
In the meantime, the MJFF partners in Australia, "Shake it up foundation" are finalizing the trial design on a Phase 3 PD trial using an already "compelling suite" of biomarkers.
https://shakeitup.org.au/new-treatment-shows-clinical-benefit-in-patients-parkinsons-disease-dementia/
I believe that question was answered. Focus on the dismal historical track record, and "the unknown" for your dark sarcasm. It keeps me entertained while I wait. I hear it just around the corner.
"As far as next steps go, we are expecting full comprehensive results of the entire AD 2b/3 trial, which will be presented via paper or otherwise. After of course, we look forward to speaking with the FDA, EMA, TGA, and other global regulators. We believe our biomarker suite is compelling for approval."
The biomarker suite is compelling for approval. So I'm ready to see those dribs and drabs.
Looks to me like that huge cash pile at BP's is starting to be put to work, and the valuation collapse in biotech is a perfect time to strike deals. Many BP's have pipeline gaps they need to fill and others want to expand and diversify.
Could get interesting.
Another company in phase 2 acquired.
That huge cash pile at BP's is starting to be put to work and the valuation collapse in biotech is their perfect time to strike deals.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/gsk-buy-canadas-bellus-health-2-bln-2023-04-18/
Have you taken a look at $RXDX Prometheus' investor deck?
I think it backs up your idea a Precision Medicine P3 trial will take place and my assumption is per plan it will be via a partnership for AD. Or a BP simply acquires $AVXL to minimize the hassle.
Being of an optimistic slant, I give a 15% chance for your comment below for AA.
Also of note $RXDX had 89.11% (ex 13D/G) institutional ownership. But...$RXDX also had a handsome sweet talking CEO who had just successfully raised $500 million. So I found it interesting that $RXDX was flush with cash yet agreed to be acquired by $MRK.
Probably, but it was an interesting structural change at this time nonetheless.
The roles of CEO and Chairman of the Board have been separated with Dr. M as CEO and Jiong Ma as Chairperson.
It was basically a needed move to mitigate some of the OTC level stank left over from the companies origin.
Venture capital had to come from somewhere... lol!
This is my venture capital allocation, fundamentals what's that?!?
$AVXL fundamentals are fine in that what is required is simply cash on hand to end of trials and a line of credit. Check and check. I have joked that LPC is like a "Best Buy" card versus a platinum Visa. LOL!
Yep, 2023. It's just around the corner.
Getting some $XBI upside alerts today, that's always nice. Let's see if capital flows are shifting toward risk now that some FED uncertainty has been lifted.
$AVXL should of course benefit and that's a technical and ETF structural thing and WITHOUT company specific "WGT" news.
Don't miss out.