Retired
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
From stocktwits I saw that Nell has been working hard on "midtown meetings", forensic experts on the interwebs postulate the location is the JP Morgan building.
I personally did some sort of combination of exercise and hold depending on my income and cash situation at the time. There are many possibilities and all of our guesses are probable.
My guess is that Dr.M will exercise and hold all 500,000 shares purchased via the stock options at $1.60.
My reasoning is since Dr.M seems like such a frugal person, he has the cash squirreled away for this event.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314052/000173112223000573/e4559_def14a.htm
Your understanding is correct as is your solution.
In a rare, for me, complaint, everything is taking "too long".
I believe it's the frugal mindset which is sometimes good and sometimes bad, but I believe the rate of progress will accelerate in due time.
Remember Biotech isn't for everyone.
Agreed, but.... I had incorrectly assessed the state of the industry as it applied to short stock, as did everyone except the "stonk marketeers", when the Meme stock short squeeze happened. It was honestly among the freaking coolest market events I've watched unfold.
Not to go too off topic, but that event put a microscope on the industry and revealed just how flawed the margin rules of hypothecation, rehypothecation and the back end accounting by the DTCC and ex-broker clearing systems allowed to be created extreme levels of short stock to remain in the system and the fact in practice over 100% of the float be shorted. I'm doubtful reforms will be made to correct the system at this back office level as there is too much money to be made, but there are some proposals currently being reviewed that create more disclosure and reporting. IMO most current proposed changes to short disclosures are weak.
Bottom line is that this flawed system remains in effect and COULD make for upside fireworks should any positive binary event for $AVXL occur and of course would be nice, but short market participants learned from the past and hedging strategies have been implemented and adjusted so I think a squeeze effect will be tempered. Regardless of the details and of hedging, on the most basic level the shares shorted represent pent up buy pressure should the stock move against the shorts position.
My skills and knowledge are aging in this era of electronic trading but some things should remain true.
Side note, I appreciate all of your posts. Peace out!
Biotech investing is not for everyone.
My advice would be to do some soul searching on the value of spreading uncertainty under the guise of presumed expertise.
I'm already a successfully retired biotech investor and have researched and learned much over my years. I wish you the best as an investor.
A number to watch is Days to Cover.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/avxl/short-interest
I've managed risk during a few short squeezes in my day. They are quite exciting.
Now you're just going off topic...I stand by my opinions as I'm sure you are too.
Totally accurate... and yes I agree FAIR pricing is needed and drug companies deserve proper compensation. I've been a biotech and big pharma investor for 30 years I have my opinions.
From the article:
""Big Pharma regularly forces Americans to pay many times what they do customers in other countries for the exact same medicines," White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement on Tuesday. "We are confident we will succeed in the courts. There is nothing in the Constitution that prevents Medicare from negotiating lower drug prices."
HEAVY LIFT
Ameet Sarpatwari, a lawyer and professor at Harvard Medical School, said in an email that Merck's lawsuit stands on weak claims."
Agreed. Lane is lame... his ideas were an interesting read 5 years ago, and his attempts to translate his repetitive drivel to "stock value" is amateurish at best, to seriously flawed at worst.
this would be a disaster for AVXL
According to a 2021 study by the RAND Corporation, a non-profit global policy think tank, prices of prescription drugs in the U.S. are 2.4 times higher than the average prices of nine other nations (Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom).
It's a known issue within the Rett community that the best endpoints to use are up for debate, whether they are RSBQ, RSBQ AUC alone or anchored to CGI-I are up for debate.
What is important is that the FDA and Anavex have mutually agreed on them, and as of today we know that discussion has occurred. That is very bullish and team FUD hates that fact.
In communication with the FDA, the Company received the Agency’s input on the study endpoints, which were utilized in this clinical study. The Rett Syndrome Behavior Questionnaire (RBSQ) total score and Clinical Global Impression Improvement Scale (CGI-I) score are co-primary endpoints in the statistical analysis plan with specified linear mixed-effects models for repeated measures (MMRM) as the primary analysis methods.
No need to catch up, I'm way ahead of you. I'm an optimist an look toward the future.
The context of that discussion was regarding agreed upon endpoints and data analysis with small sample sizes and thus AUC was used in that analysis.
But guess what you should have learned today that "The Rett Syndrome Behavior Questionnaire (RBSQ) total score and Clinical Global Impression Improvement Scale (CGI-I) score are co-primary endpoints in the statistical analysis plan with specified linear mixed-effects models for repeated measures (MMRM) as the primary analysis methods."
To be an effective bearish FUD'ster explain more fully the issues with MMRM. Not dredging up an out of context comment on AUC
The context of that discussion was regarding agreed upon endpoints and data analysis with small sample sizes and thus AUC was used in that analysis.
But guess what you should have learned today that "The Rett Syndrome Behavior Questionnaire (RBSQ) total score and Clinical Global Impression Improvement Scale (CGI-I) score are co-primary endpoints in the statistical analysis plan with specified linear mixed-effects models for repeated measures (MMRM) as the primary analysis methods."
To be an effective bearish FUD'ster explain more fully the issues with MMRM. Not dredging up an out of context comment on AUC.
Please provide the quote of such from the record.
Yeah and he previously said the opposite all on record.
Missling already addressed it months ago in a Q&A session... He said, because of trial size they won't be using AUC. I'm sure if they were planning to use AUC, they would have stated that in the PR.
But that doesn't stop some from spinning information into FUD.
Nonsense and I'm a lone bull who sometimes agrees with your comments.
Back to basic lack of understanding of biotech investing and the difference between endpoints and outcome measures ie. mean from baseline to EOS or AUC.
Anavex have yet again left that barn doors wide open and will bolt them after the horses have escaped.
Such the pessimists drive to always manufacture fear with manufactured uncertainty.
Exactly no mention of whether that’s using AUC or baseline to EOS.
I agree with everything you said, but just want share my opinion that positive a Rett Syndrome top line result will be the first trials to represent applicable proof of concept for S1R modulation and investors of many levels should understand it's larger significance.
Anavex provided answers and reduced the Uncertainty spun by the FUD narrative. Trofinetide was approved on the same endpoints Anavex will also be using, thus, for the final analysis, there is more clarity now than the uncertainty your comment is elicits.
Though it does call into question whether the Avatar endpoints are adequate for Anavex to claim its a phase 3 rather than a 2b.
coprimary RSBQ and CGI-I change in means vs. RSBQ-AUC
Regarding endpoint guidance, notice that the agreed endpoints are RSBQ and CGI-I and will not use AUC (Area under the curve) as was used in the adult Rett trial analysis.
In communication with the FDA, the Company received the Agency’s input on the study endpoints, which were utilized in this clinical study. The Rett Syndrome Behavior Questionnaire (RBSQ) total score and Clinical Global Impression Improvement Scale (CGI-I) score are co-primary endpoints in the statistical analysis plan with specified linear mixed-effects models for repeated measures (MMRM) as the primary analysis methods.
You are determined to take the connect-the-dots drawing of a prince and draw out of order to show a frog.
"Luckily one or multiple biomarkers showed significance." Correct
"This explains why Missling is unwilling to spend money on hiring." a non sequitur and incorrect
Your "estimated" timelines are overly pessimistic.
"Dude, it's all good with a disclaimer", I used to say as a compliance manager. LOL!
All statements are protected.
However most such statements are couched in forward looking language or other non-definitive wording that does not create legal liability.
When "good" size is involved, accommodations to perform an execution can often be amiable to all parties depending on each position holders goals and expectations.
I'm in a nostalgia phase when I did things the old fashioned way, wonder how much human interaction is needed to execute size these days?
"But had we spent a few more million..." ah yes the retrospective, for a few bucks more "X" could have maybe happened...totally disregards the financial position the company was in back in 2015'ish era.
I used to complain about the progress of very small companies, that is until I founded and ran my own.
Sure, For the long option folks, understand that options are not "investing" and learn how to manage your risk and bankroll. Unlike stock, options require correctly estimating not only the direction of an underlying, but also the precise timing AND magnitude of the change.
Along those lines and as other posters are discussing the use of spreads is a good tool particularly in this zero commission environment.
For thinly traded options try to never pay the ASK in a wide spread, shop for best price but know you are often working against a computer and its algorithms.
You can still be a bullish supporter and sell covered calls.
"I'm an awesome options trader" except for $AVXL when my bullish bias forces errors.
I got "rich" trading options early in my broker career, so the thrill of the chase is locked in.
Unfortunately the real reform that needs to take place regarding the shorting of stock is at the structural "back office" level and the accounting of shares by the DTCC and the ex broker system.
But I'll be curious to see what types of baby step reforms could be made in the meantime.
$AVXL options have been challenging and I've traded them frequently since the first day they were available. I'm primarily a long stock position trader, but use options as a speculative kicker,and I also routinely sell covered calls. Often times I end up legging into bull call spreads or ratio spreads when I oversell covered calls versus the long calls.
.
For me long call options are for fun and speculation. I basically get 1 or 2 long call bets correct a year and then piss it all away on losing long call bets for a net break even. A common pattern for a diehard optimist.
That's simply the sequential numbering for the OLE trial, not that it's a P4 trial.
OLE of Phase 2b/3 Study ANAVEX2-73-AD-004 (ATTENTION-AD)
DTBP is an account specific margin calculation based upon first having the minimum equity requirement of $25K, and the loan value of the security being traded.
I embrace the "Unknown" and the process of discovery and learning so some types of FUD simply don't work on people like me or is it actually us?
Decsription of..."We don't know what we don't know".... Dr. Peter Senge
I have a neighbor who has a crystal, herb, or candle for whatever you may need. LOL
Wouldn't it be funny if there were no genes implicated but it turned out they had all started taking ginseng and using aromatherapy?
The possibility of so called "super responders" is interesting. I wonder if there will be a commonality found within their genetic profiles?
This daily chatter about FDA this, FDA that, is getting so drone. I'd absolutely LOVE the Aussies or other regulatory agency simply leapfrog the damn FDA and do some sort of an approval.
That's a fun wildcard that is not out of the realm of possibility.
What I'm finding entertaining is we're arguing various degrees of positive outcomes. P2b/3, P3, P4...whatever it takes... LOL (220, 221, whatever it takes; Mr.Mom)
One point I definitely agree on is the true value of precision medicine has yet to be fully implemented.
Wise predictions!