full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Ithaca up 15% in UK trading today; not trading in Canada today; doesn't appear to have traded in US today.
Perhaps the Ithaca buyout discussions are proceeding afterall.
Anybody hearing any rumors today about Ithaca?
Canadian Markets closed today:
Victoria Day May 21, 2012
Interesting detail on RCHN. I copied it to Yahoo RCHN board. Not clear exactly how "leading-edge" their products are as PCs and laptops get replaced by tablets and smartphones.
Why investing in IPOs is a bad idea.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/92912781/
These days, buying into an IPO is just a way to HELP the INSIDERS CASH OUT!!!
Why investing in IPOs is a bad idea.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/92912781/
These days, buying into an IPO is just a way to HELP the INSIDERS CASH OUT!!!
Blah Blah Blah !!! Trash Talk !!!! Waste of Time !!! Loss of Focus !!!
AUMN down 16% to $3.40 today; looks to me like a good play for a turnaround.
GLMB: I bought a little this morning; it has mktcap of only $2million and appears to have a very strange business mix (VOIP phone services and biomass energy consulting services). Based on the news release, it appears undervalued, but is very thinly traded. It also has a difficult to define Risk/Reward ratio.
About GLMB:
Global MobileTech provides its patented technology to channel and private label partners and operates the MobiCAST and MobiREWARDS programs. Its principal user base is located in Malaysia and Hong Kong. In addition, Global MobileTech operates an alternative energy segment providing biomass energy consulting services in South East Asia.
COGO ($2.22-2.34) up 10-15% premarket on earnings beat.
15-May-12 16:07 ET COGO
Cogo Group beats by $0.07, beats on revs (2.00 +0.00)
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.13 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.06; revenues rose 62.2% year/year to $169.3 mln vs the $151.7 mln consensus. "We achieved strong year-over-year growth in each of our three business end-markets and continued to show good control of operating costs. However, as we have indicated on previous calls, the tight credit environment in China continues to negatively affect our SME business and consequently suppresses our gross margin. I am also pleased to report that the audit committee is currently reviewing my personal proposal to purchase certain Cogo assets, liabilities and operating business units. We expect to complete the review of my personal proposal before the end of the second quarter of 2012, subject to the successful negotiation of deal terms, the approval of the audit committee and other contingencies. Target companies of the deal roughly account for 26% of the group's revenue, with a gross margin of approximately 5% in the first quarter of 2012. I continue to believe that this purchase, which may possibly place an overall value of Cogo at $6-$8 a share, will help to legitimize the value of our financial assets."
08:53 Cogo Group: Solid Q1; asset sale to CEO on track - Canaccord Genuity (2.00 ) -Update
Canaccord notes Cogo reported Q1/12 results above its estimates as strength in the Telecom business drove the upside despite the lower gross margin due to the larger Telecom mix. Cogo CEO Jeffrey Kang's proposal to purchase roughly 26% of Cogo's revenue, assets, and liabilities with an expected purchase price of $60-82M remains on track and could provide a catalyst for shares to rise toward tangible book value, or $6.45.
Nice Chart and analysis of GORO:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=goro&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Old School Fundamental Business Valuation article:
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/fundamental-analysis-process/
GV: Wade, are you unloading this one yet? If not, what is your target price? Backlog looks great.
Thanks,
Steve
PVG: Pretium Q1 results:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pretivm-reports-first-quarter-2012-000800020.html
Prophecy Coal + Prophecy Platinum = ?
PCY + NKL = CRAP!!!!
These two John Lee juggernauts have leaks in the jugulars.
Anyone know why the Prophecy Platinum PEA was delayed?
CL still likes them both, citing inside buying, but there is looking like there may be some personal interest involved in his outlook for the two Prophecy miners.
10:33 GDX now +0.65%, extending oversold bounce off fresh 52-wk lows here with top-weighted fund holdings ABX, GG, NEM, AU, BVN, GFI, AUY, EGO, SLW, & KGC in play
OT: Dances with Bears?
POE.v/POEFF.pk Pan Orient due to finish drilling the Jatayu-1 exploration well in Indonesia this week. Anyone hearing anything one way or the other?
Hit? Miss? Maybe? Delayed by roughnecks going to town acting like Secret Service agents?
TGA down because ...
1. quarterly earnings missed expectations by a few pennies.
2. oil is down substantially since last month
3. more sellers today than buyers
IMHO, TGA is presenting a better buying opportunity here than AAPL, which you asked about earlier. I own both but believe TGA upside potential is better than AAPL's (%-wise).
'peeker
Digitech clarifies Mart's pipeline situation. There is no threat to any pipelines that Mart uses now (operated by Agip) or plans to use in future (operated Shell).
This is the answer I gave on IV to a question about the pipeline used by Mart:
The pipeline Mart uses is the AGIP pipeline from Umutu to the Kwale AGIP facility 20 KM East of Umusadege. It is a small pipeline.
At this point it connects to the Large AGIP Export pipeline that ends up at the Brass river terminal 200 or so KM away.
Mart has a crude purchase agreement with AGIP. AGIP buys all the crude Mart produces. The amount of crude is determined every month between AGIP and Mart. If AGIP cannot deliver the crude to the terminal they pay Mart anyway. The oil not delivered is called the "deficit oil" AGIP recovers the deficit oil in the following month(s) shipment. The advantage is that Mart is assured of a steady cashflow.
What was new this year is that AGIP said "we forgot to tell you but we lost some oil during the 2011 year and we will make it up by just not paying you for the equivalent amount of oil you already shipped" Nice guys but I guess it was in the contract. Before everybody jumps up and down it is a common thing to have loss on the line. It is not only from bunkering. You can get a 3% loss just due to temperature.
The deal with Shell is a crude purchase agreement of X BOPD for X amount of years. The crude will be shipped on a Mart operated pipeline of 54KM to the Eriemu Shell facility. That Mart pipeline will have a capacity of 60,000 BOPD and it will be underground with a 18 inches slab of concrete on top. Expected completion (IMO not the company) is Q3 2013.
In Eriemu the Mart pipeline will connect to the main Shell pipeline that goes to the Forcados terminal 150KM away. Forcados is 150 KM west up the niger delta coast. Mart indicated that Shell reserved a 25,000 BOPD allocation for Mart on that pipeline.
The Shell pipeline that is shut down for repair (usually a few days) is a pipeline that end at the Bonny terminal about 100KM East of Brass river and 250 KM south of Umusadege.
I hope that helps the understanding of the pipeline geography.
IAE.to/IACAF.pk news today:
Ithaca Energy Inc. Announces Statement Concerning Interest In The Company
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM and CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - May 7, 2012) -
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION
Ithaca Energy Inc. ("Ithaca" or "the Company") (TSX:IAE)(AIM:IAE) announced on March 1, 2012, that it had received unsolicited interest from a number of third parties. The Company also advised that the Board of Ithaca concluded that it was in shareholders' best interests that the Company enter into discussions with all such bona fide parties.
The Company is aware of recent press and media speculation concerning the status of these discussions and confirms that it remains in dialogue with bona fide parties. During the discussion period the Company has confirmed all parties' financial and deal execution capability. A timetable for the submission of final bids has been set. The Company expects to provide a further update to the market within the next four weeks.
The Board stresses that although discussions with parties continue, there can be no certainty of an offer being made for the Company.
The Board is being advised by CIBC World Markets Inc ("CIBC") in this respect.
UK Takeover Code
The Company's registered office is in Canada. The UK Panel on Takeovers and Mergers has confirmed that the Company is not subject to the UK City Code on Takeovers and Mergers ("the Takeover Code") and accordingly the Company's shareholders will not be afforded any protection under the Takeover Code. The Company is subject to regulation under applicable Canadian securities and corporate laws and shareholders will therefore benefit from the protections of such laws.
A copy of this announcement will be available at www.ithacaenergy.com. The content of the website referred to in this announcement is not incorporated into and does not form part of this announcement.
Forward-looking statements
This news release contains certain forward looking statements. The reader is cautioned that all such forward looking statements involve substantial risks and uncertainties and the assumptions used in their preparation may not prove to be correct. Ithaca's actual results could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward looking statements and accordingly, the forward looking statements are qualified by reference to these cautionary statements. The forward looking statements contained herein are made as at the date of this news release. Ithaca undertakes no obligation to update or publicly revise forward looking statements or information unless so required by applicable securities laws.
Cenkos Securities plc, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority under FSA number 416932, is acting exclusively as Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker to the Company and is not acting for or advising any other person and accordingly will not be responsible to any person other than the Company for providing advice in relation to the contents of this announcement. Neither Cenkos Securities plc nor any of its affiliates owes or accepts any duty, liability or responsibility whatsoever (whether direct or indirect, whether in contract, in tort, under statute or otherwise) to any person who is not a customer of Cenkos Securities plc in connection with this announcement, any statement contained herein or otherwise.
This announcement is not intended to, and does not, constitute or form part of any offer, invitation or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of, any securities whether pursuant to this announcement or otherwise.
Website: www.ithacaenergy.com
Mart Resources: This Shell pipeline has been a major source of problems for Shell in Nigeria. It was shut down late Dec2012 for repairs as well. The debunkering activity is causing lots of leaks and the leaks cause Shell lots of grief due to the environmental damage caused by the leaks.
I don't believe this is one of the Shell pipelines that Mart hopes to connect to for increasing producing from Umusadege field in late 2013. Perhaps this 90-kilometre Nembe Creek Trunkline is just one of many feeder lines that feed into the one of several Shell operated pipelines in the Niger Delta.
FLY release states reason for the bump in profits the latest qtr.
Financial Results
FLY's net income and basic and diluted earnings per share for the first quarter of 2012 were $20.4 million and $0.78, respectively, compared to net income of $2.8 million and earnings per share of $0.10 for the same period in 2011. Contributing to the increase in earnings was $15.9 million of end of lease revenue.
Total revenues for the first quarter of 2012 were $104.5 million and include $86.5 million of rental revenue. This 115% increase in revenue reflects the increased size of the fleet and end of lease revenue. Likewise, operating expenses for the first quarter of 2012 were $81.5 million, a 76% increase over the same period in the previous year.
Adjusted Net Income
Adjusted Net Income was $26.8 million for the first quarter of 2012 compared to $3.7 million in the same period in the previous year. On a per share basis, Adjusted Net Income was $1.04 in the first quarter of 2012 compared to $0.14 for the same period in the previous year.
MMT.v Perhaps a major portion of the big bucket of "restricted cash" has already been freed since the end of 2011.
Net Income (Total profit) for Q1 was $8,782.
Ugh! Not sure mgt is worried about much more than collecting salaries and living off expenses. If so, they'd be figuring out how to reduce expenses or increase revenues.
Ding Ding Ding ...
kozuh, VVUS sends samples to prospective investors in case you want to make your dream come true:
"Everything's BIG in Texas!"
13:23 VVUS
Vivus halted, news pending (25.53 +1.10)
The PDUFA date for the co's erectile dysfunction drug avanafil is today.
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk: Mart presentation updated (very nicely done) on company website after presentation to investors in NYC yesterday. It doesn't over-imply successes of the future but it does show where new pipeline is needed to link to Shell from Umusadege field.
Spoke to David Lightfoot (sp.?) a couple of days ago. Amazing to hear that the TRGD story remains that they have refiled their updates to the SEC to request they lift the trading suspension AND they have also applied to SEC for a new listing, just in case the trading suspension is not lifted.
Gosh, how long has TRGD trading been frozen? Seems like about a year or more, but I don't even feel like looking it up.
He made the point that we've heard before that TRGD shareholders can receive TARM distrubution even while TRGD doesn't trade. That said, I don't expect to get any TARM shares for a long time.
The deal between TARM/Adit and Yamana may eventually bear monetary fruit to TARM and TRGD shareholders, but at this juncture, a TRGD shareholder really doesn't know what to expect or when to expect it.
Another way to say it is: We are up the creek without a paddle, so all we can do is go with the flow. Of course, there is probably a big waterfall downstream.
Who or What convinced you to sell you mining stocks?
Just curious ... I know you've been out for awhile so you've avoided much pain ... congratulations on that!
MMT going the
Copied from MMT.v board on InvestorVillage
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12706&mn=3031&pt=msg&mid=11653363
BAC: Bank of America shares rise 2% following beat on earnings per share
Bank of America (BAC $9.11 +0.18) reported first quarter earnings of $0.03 per share, may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.11, while revenues fell 17.0% year/year to $22.48 billion versus the $22.38 bln consensus. Results include negative valuation adjustments related to changes in the company's credit spreads of $4.8 billion pretax, or $0.28 a share. Excluding the valuation adjustments from both periods, revenue was down 3% in the first quarter of 2012 to $27.3 billion.
"The narrowing of our credit spreads reflects the significant progress we've made to strengthen the balance sheet," said Chief Financial Officer Bruce Thompson. "During the quarter, we increased our Tier 1 common equity ratio by 92 basis points from the prior quarter, improved our liquidity to record levels and continued to reduce risk-weighted assets. While the improvement in our credit spreads results in a negative adjustment to earnings this quarter, it should not overshadow the positive momentum that we are seeing in our businesses."
R59, The above is an example of complexity you mentioned!
MONGOLIAN GOVERNMENT WILL PROVIDE GENEROUS ASSISTANCE IN THE BUILDING OF A COAL LIQUEFACTION PLANT
This is an interview with A. Erdenepurev, the Head of the Fuel Strategy Department at the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy. Translated from the Undesnii Shuudan newspaper.
-Isn’t it estimated that when a barrel of oil is worth more than USD 100, it is profitable to liquefy coal for gasoline?
-Around seven or eight years ago, the estimation was USD 30, meaning that if the price of one barrel of oil went beyond USD 30, it was economically beneficial. But today, it is time to further advance and improve this formula.
-It seems that liquefying coal in today’s economic situation is beneficial to both the producer and the consumer. What would you say about it?
-Mongolia’s annual gasoline consumption has surpassed 1 million tons. It is estimated that this number will reach 1.5 million tons by 2015. We are supplying this daily-needed of raw material solely through imports.
98% of Mongolian gasoline is dependent on the Russian Rosneft. Of course, every Mongolian is interested in reducing this dependency and beginning to produce gasoline domestically. There are huge opportunities and possibilities for Mongolia in liquefying or gasifying coal. According to the estimation of Mongolian geologists, Mongolia has around 167 billion tons of coal. It is a very large amount and we must turn the raw mineral resources into usable fuel.
-What is the usable reserve out of these 167 billion tons of coal reserve?
-Currently, there are 20 billion tons of known coal reserves in Mongolia. Out of these 20 tons, 6.5 billion is at Tavan Tolgoi. Additionally, there are other coalmines such as in Choir, Nyalgyn, Tsaidam and Tugrug. The short-term goal of the Ministry of Mineral Resources of Energy is to establish a liquefaction plant for coal extracted from all these mines.
-The raw materials are ready. Consumers just can’t wait for a fresh supply of liquefied coal. Private companies are requesting to build the plant. So what really is the problem?
-We have a serious lack of technology. The whole world is talking about liquefying coal, and do you know how many of them have actually built them? In a testing, laboratory level, developed countries can extract liquid fuel from coal, and our professors and the National University of Mongolia are also doing the same. But there are so few of them on a large production scale. For example, a few years ago China built a coal liquefaction plant in Inner Mongolia and even today, they have not yet declared how much liquid fuel they are exporting. The Chinese have money, but the problem is technology.
-During the President’s visit to Germany, the two sides have signed a memorandum about building a coal liquefaction plant in Mongolia. Tell us more about this.
-The President has held a conference with German delegates on cooperating with each other’s mining, industry, and environmental protection sectors, and signed a cooperation memorandum with the German multinational conglomerate ThyssenKrupp. The memorandum was also signed with its subsidiary, ThyssenKrupp Uhde, on building a coal liquefaction plant in Mongolia.
In addition to cooperation with Germany, we have also made a request to Korea, and Japan has already proposed to build a coal liquefaction plant based in Tavan Tolgoi. We are welcoming the proposal and looking into it.
-What is the participation level of the Mongolian private sector on the establishment of the liquefaction plant?
-There are four companies that have made significant efforts. They are Tsetsens Mining and Energy, Energy Resources, MAK, and Industrial Corporation Mongolia. These companies are interested in bringing in the coal liquefaction technology to Mongolia.
-Why have we chosen German technology specifically?
-It is universally accepted. It is environmentally friendly and they have successfully implemented their technology on a large-scale production, they are trusted. For example, the ThyssenKrupp Uhde has its own patents on coal liquefaction technology. Their technology is also financially beneficial.
-Will the Government build the plant with the assistance of the private sector?
-Yes, the private sector will play a significant role. Throughout the development, they have not just sat there doing nothing; they have made studies, researched the matter, and developed technical and economic assessments of the project. Now the Government will help them realize their objectives, for example, ease taxes when they import equipment and machinery for the plant and also guarantee buyers for their products.
-When will the plant be in operation?
-It is planned that in 3 – 4 years, first of the liquefied coal will be produced. The first year will be entirely dedicated to the technical and economic assessment. An assessment that is being developed under the partnership of MCS, Petrovis, Energy Resources and Industrial Corporation Mongolia is almost ready. Another assessment by MAK and Tsetsens Mining and Energy is in its final stages.
-Of course, a plant like this, which requires high-end technology, will need a large amount of funding, how will this be solved?
-A project to build a plant of this level will require at least USD 1 – 2 billion dollars. But depending on the overall capacity, they may differ. For example, one of the technical and economic assessments I mentioned above is planning to build a plant with a capacity of 400 – 500 thousand tons of fuel, and the other one will have a capacity 1 million tons of fuel. Mongolia’s GDP is USD 8 billion. The project’s cost will equal to one fourth of our GDP; we will pay careful, close attention to it.
-What other companies are cooperating with Mongolia on this?
-Mongolian MCS and Petrovis have signed partnership memorandum with Siemens, and Tsetsens Mining and Energy have signed agreements with the German Lurgi to purchase coal liquefaction technologies.
-What will be the cost for the mineral territory usage license?
-This is a business secret of the companies involved, so I am not able to disclose this information. The companies themselves, the National Security Council and the Government all have this information.
-Do the above-mentioned companies have sufficient raw material supply, i.e. coal? Will the Government provide assistance to these companies on obtaining coal-mining sites?
-Let’s start with Industrial Corporation Mongolia. This company owns the Tugrug Lake coalmine in Tuv Province. MAK says they will turn to their mine in Aduunchuluun for coal, which has a reserve of 285 million tons. Energy Resources sees that it has over 400 tons of coal available from its Ukhaakhudag, Choir and Nyalgyn mines. Tsetsens Mining and Energy owns Tsaidamnuur and Buurljuut steppe mines in Tuv Province. These mines have a confirmed reserve of 479 tons of coal, and an estimated reserve of 6.5 billion tons of coal. Estimates show that the coal reserve these companies have is sufficient for the coal liquefaction plant to run smoothly.
-Tell us about the plant’s production capacity. What will be its annual rate of liquefied coal production?
-I will tell you about it based on the technical and economic assessments. In a year, the plant will have the capacity to process 2 – 6 tons of coal, produce 400 – 800 thousand tons of gasoline and fuel, 50 – 100 thousand tons of LPG, 20 – 50 thousand tons of sulfur. Additionally, the plant will be capable of generating 200 – 300 megawatts of electricity.
-What will be the price of the completed products?
-After estimating all the costs, producing one ton of gasoline will cost at USD 600 – 670 dollars, and the cost of 1 ton liquid fuel will be at USD 700 dollars.
-Does it mean that Mongolians will use gasoline that is twice as cheap as we use today?
-We can’t say that exactly. Well, the gasoline we import have an average price of USD 1,100 dollars, so compared to that, it is cheap.
-Since the Government is involved in the whole ordeal, why can’t they set a profit limit for the liquefied coal?
There are no talks on setting such limits. The Government is providing a ton of support and assistance to the private sector on this. For example, the Government makes an agreement with the German side to reduce the license taxation on mineral territories, or reducing customs clearance taxes. There are more I could list. I don’t think the private companies, as they all support social responsibility, will try to sell their product at the same price as Rosneft products.
Source:ubpost.mongolnews.mn
OT: But they got some smokin' hot fumaroles.
Kozuh, OT, of course. Speaking of the San Andreas fault, isn't yo momma named Andrea? Thus, doesn't this mean you are from all her fault.
Majescor (MJX.v/MJXFF.pk) at .15/share is looking like their positive drilling results are not good enough to warrant extraordinary interest by the big mining company next door.
Could it be that CL is losing his touch with stock picking, or are we just proceeding deeper into a risk-off period as almost all miners have sold off severely?
Your candid thoughts on what to expect from Majescor and Prophecy Platinum and Prophecy Coal would be greatly appreciated.
You assume TRGD trading status will change sometime in future? Is David Barefoot still in the picture?
POE.v/POEFF.pk operational update looks pretty positive for Thailand, but slower than expected in Indonesia. OUCH! Down about 10% for the open today.
For details read their news.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-orient-energy-corp-operations-123000818.html
Sector Rotation discussion says those sticking with bullish sectors have been outperforming the more defensive sectors.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/bullish-signs-from-the-march-2012-sector-rotation-model/
Ithaca seeing good volume today with the price up a little. Maybe next week we will see the official offer made public.
No guarantees, but my crystal balls are humming.
GLTA IAE.to/IACAF.pk longs!
'peeker
Time to sell KTCC and add AGM for the ride to $30, or time to give up on AGM and buy more KTCC?