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“Haven't you been reading my posts? I've stated many times the good reasons for buying this stock, including the fact that the Midwest flooding is receding”
What did that to the share price?
“the fact that Pacific Ethanol has agreements with its' lenders to adjust the terms of their loans”
What did that to the share price?
“the fact that the American President increased the use of Ethanol in gasoline”
What did that to the share price?
“the fact that the Book Value is six times the current trading price”
What did that to the share price?
You can copy/paste as many links to news items as you like, but so far PEIX didn’t react positive to any of those facts.
In fact, if you go back through the years you will find lots of these kind of facts, and PEIX still went from over $20 to $1.
Based on what do you come to that conclusion? One paragraph in the filings? Like i’ve said, every filing by peix on the earnings contains such a statement. Based on the results? That didn’t work out like you predicted yesterday, so why would it now be more positive then all the previous quarters?
“That doesn't help anyone because Greenshift hasn't made any SEC filings since the third quarter of 2016!!! “
The terms haven’t changed. You would probably now say you can’t know without new filings. Then ask yourself. Would Yagi be so happy with the lack of filings, so that they cannot convert their shares, that they even change the terms, and still aren’t able to dilute? Impossible!
“Not filing anything with the SEC is just delaying the inevitable reduction in the share price caused by more years going by without any transparency from Greenshift's management. “
“No,because Kevin will file as soon as the loan isn’t a problem anymore. “
Do you think I'm the only person who needs to see the current balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statements for this company?
You are probably one of the few who has invested recently in GERS knowing they didn’t file, knowing this isn’t about current balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statements for this company and that is still making an issue out of it.
“Nobody can guarantee that ANY stock will rise in price. All any investor can do is to make an educated guess about the future of any company he owns and about the future of any company that he's thinking of investing in.”
That is in complete contradiction to all calls you did about what to expect after the earnings of the first quarter.
Also it is in contradiction to what you claimed based on the language used in the filings.
“You're making an assumption that the drop in the share price from $3.45 to the current price is the direct result of that one statement from the CEO”
NO, I’m saying no matter how positive the CEO’s statement in the filings or or PR is, it is absolutely no guarantee that the company is going to have better results in the nearby future, or that the share price will rise.
PEIX PR’s always seem positive.
This is what the PR said when they reported the first quarter of 2018, when the share price was still at $3.45, half of today’s book value, a year ago. We know what that brought.
“Neil Koehler, Pacific Ethanol's president and CEO, stated: 'Production margins in the ethanol industry during the first quarter improved slightly from the fourth quarter of 2017 but remained compressed, as ethanol inventories reached an historic high in early March. The fundamentals have improved since then due to strong exports, higher fuel demand, and moderating overall ethanol production. Ethanol inventories have fallen nine percent over the last two months and are now five percent lower than last year at this time. We are optimistic the improved supply and demand balance will result in margin improvements as we enter the peak demand season.”
“.. and the higher the price goes, the fewer shares that YAGI will convert, so Kevin has a good reason to tell the world about all the good news that he has”
If he has to choose between lesser shares but still a lot of dilution of OUR future profits, and no dilution at all because of not filing, I hope he chooses the latter.
“First, let me be clear. This is a straight-line conversion rate, as restated in the following table.
160 million shares @ 10¢/share
1.6 billion shares @ 1¢/share
16 billion shares @ 1/10th of a penny per share
Because this is a straight-line conversion rate, the same rate can be applied at the other end of the scale. If the stock price rises instead of falling, then fewer shares would be converted into new common shares, thus diluting the value of it by a much smaller amount.”
Please, just take some time to check out the past dilution. It seems like you got no idea what you are talking about.
The shares aren’t converted all at once. The lower the price goes, the more shares YAGI will convert.
Previous dilution, how do you think that happened? Why did that increase faster the lower the share price got?
“!!! November 11, 2016, there were 1,413,490,221 shares of common stock outstanding !!!
August 18, 2016, there were 646,024,221 shares of common stock outstanding.
April 22, 2016, there were 204,745,625 shares of common stock outstanding
November 20, 2015, there were 57,021,234 shares of common stock outstanding.”
“Peix might be a good investment, but that has nothing to do with the predicted earnings.”
“So the Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio has no effect on any potential investor in any stock? Really.”
First, I was referring to your prediction, not to the Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio. And secondly, the P/E ratio is only of use if PEIX really shows improvement, instead of the nice forward looking quote they always have in their PR.
You can argue all you want, but the share price speaks volumes. We are nowhere close to heading toward $2
LOL, I never been saying you shouldn’t have bought this stock.
But you can’t deny that all of your predictions about the Q1 earnings where wrong.
And that the signal of the board members acquiring stock was misinterpreted.
And that this calculation was totally of for an example how money is less important then percentage “ $32.1 million for it (plus a modest brokerage commission of course), and if you saw the price of that stock go up 1.22% today, you would of course be jumping for joy because you had made $3,916 in one day!”
Do with it whatever you like, but nobody believes such BS. These facts can’t be denied without looking rediculous.
To come from a point where these statements have been the backbone of investing, to saying “Yes, I was right all along with the choice to buy this stock” and ignoring that these claims where wrong is Laughable.
The least ine could do is admid their mistakes instead of saying “but I’ve posted a few links to news that was right”
Peix might be a good investment, but that has nothing to do with the predicted earnings. All earning PR’s by them start with a few positive lines.
Nope, not right with your calculations, not right with the reason peix board members acquired their shares, not right that it wasn’t illegal for board members to buy based on inside information, not right when you said my link said nothing about buying, just about selling, not right when you shared the share price, not right with your predictions.
But who cares, in the end the only thing that matters is wether this stock goes up, unfortunatly you did not predict that right too.
I did predict this this today: “IMO no rally toward $2, not even toward $1.50 or $1.30 and most likely We'll end somewhere between $1.10 and $1 or even below $1”
I did predict this on April 27th: “I’m not saying they will drop below 1$ also. But mostly because theprice is pushed higher before earnings to avoid that. However, after the dust settles it all depends on how much of that margin is left.”
And also on that date: “I don't expect them to beat expectations”
Now, where was I wrong?
You did predict this on April 27th: “The price is rallying because of the market's expectations for better year-over-year quarterly and annual results, and yes, I agree with those expectations.”
And also this: “I expect Pacific Ethanol to beat their pitiful Q1 expectations, causing a big rally in their stock price, bringing it much closer to their $6.50+ book value.”
You predicted this today: “There are two pre-market trades at $1.13/share! I sense a very good day for the longs here!”
Now where were you right?
Oops? Not oops, but cheers once GERS moves over $2 dollars within a year unlike PEIX.
“Right now, I'm reading the GERS stock chart, which shows another 100-share trade made at a lower price than yesterday's closing price. Don't you just love this stock?”
At least this stock has a chance to get over $2,- within a year, which is hard to say for another stock You and I own.
If only that was our “favorite” GERS investor.
1.07 at nasdaq realtime quote. But like I’ve said before. It’s always a bumpy ride the day after earnings. Only at the end of the day, you get some idea of how the earnings appreciated.
Edit: $1.04 after opening.
I’m impressed. 3100 shares sold so far. Bid 1.03 ask 1.13.
If you have been watching past days after earnings, you would know, these days are always bumpy. The start may be nothing like the eod. After the days end, it still is hard to say what the coming days will bring. But after a few days, peix almost always moves down.
I hate to be right, because it means the value of my shares might drop. But it seems PEIX has reported another miss on earnings, despite the signs you read in the stock acquired by the board members.
Pacific Ethanol misses by $0.20, beats on revenue
May. 1, 2019 4:09 PM ETPacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX)By: Vandana Singh, SA News Editor
Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX): Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.29 misses by $0.20.
Revenue of $355.8M (-11.1% Y/Y) beats by $2.95M.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17496014-pacific-ethanol-reports-first-quarter-2019-results
Pacific Ethanol Reports First Quarter 2019 Results
Wed May 1, 2019 4:05 PM|GlobeNewswire|About: PEIX
SACRAMENTO, Calif., May 01, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX), a leading producer and marketer of low-carbon renewable fuels and high-quality alcohol products in the United States, reported its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2019.
Neil Koehler, Pacific Ethanol’s president and CEO, stated, “The ethanol market is emerging from the bottom of the cycle in late 2018 when crush margins were at historic lows and our first quarter 2019 results reflect these improving market conditions. Our first quarter 2019 net sales were up 6% sequentially to $365 million. Additionally, during the quarter we implemented cost reductions that improved our operating margin. While loss available to common stockholders was $13.2 million, Adjusted EBITDA was positive $1.6 million for the first quarter, representing a significant improvement over the fourth quarter of 2018.
“We are making progress on our strategic initiatives to improve liquidity, reduce our debt and to provide greater financial flexibility to pursue future growth opportunities and increase shareholder value. When looking at the overall ethanol industry, we continue to believe the compelling cost, octane and carbon benefits of ethanol will drive additional demand in 2019 supported by an expected resolution of trade disputes with China and a final rule from the EPA facilitating the year round use of higher ethanol blends.”
Financial Results for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2019 Compared to 2018
Net sales were $355.8 million, compared to $400.0 million.
Total gallons sold of 211.8 million, compared to 232.7 million.
Total production gallons sold of 116.9 million, compared to 140.8 million.
Cost of goods sold was $358.1 million, compared to $396.7 million.
Gross loss was $2.3 million, compared to gross profit of $3.4 million.
Selling, general and administrative expenses were $8.2 million, compared to $9.3 million.
Operating loss was $10.5 million, compared to $6.0 million.
Loss available to common stockholders was $13.2 million, or $0.29 per share, compared to $8.2 million, or $0.19 per share.
Adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 million compared to $5.7 million.
Cash and cash equivalents were $21.8 million at March 31, 2018, compared to $26.6 million at December 31, 2018.
First Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call
Management will host a conference call at 8:00 a.m. Pacific Time/11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on May 2, 2019. CEO Neil Koehler and CFO Bryon McGregor will deliver prepared remarks followed by a question and answer session.
The webcast for the call can be accessed from Pacific Ethanol's website at www.pacificethanol.com. Alternatively, you may dial the following number up to ten minutes prior to the scheduled conference call time: (877) 847-6066. International callers should dial 00-1 (970) 315-0267. The pass code will be 5688084. If you are unable to participate on the live call, the webcast will be archived for replay on Pacific Ethanol's website for one year. In addition, a telephonic replay will be available at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, May 2, 2019, through 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, May 9, 2019. To access the replay, please dial (855) 859-2056. International callers should dial 00-1-(404) 537-3406. The pass code will be 5688084.
Use of Non-GAAP Measures
Management believes that certain financial measures not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") are useful measures of operations. The company defines Adjusted EBITDA as unaudited net income (loss) attributed to Pacific Ethanol before interest expense, provision (benefit) for income taxes, asset impairments, purchase accounting adjustments, fair value adjustments, and depreciation and amortization expense. A table is provided at the end of this release that provides a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to its most directly comparable GAAP measure. Management provides this non-GAAP measure so that investors will have the same financial information that management uses, which may assist investors in properly assessing the company's performance on a period-over-period basis. Adjusted EBITDA is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to net income (loss) or any other measure of performance under GAAP, or to cash flows from operating, investing or financing activities as an indicator of cash flows or as a measure of liquidity. Adjusted EBITDA has limitations as an analytical tool and you should not consider this measure in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of the company's results as reported under GAAP.
.
PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(unaudited, in thousands, except per share data)
Three Months Ended
March 31,
2019 2018
Net sales $ 355,803 $ 400,027
Cost of goods sold 358,092 396,665
Gross profit (loss) (2,289 ) 3,362
Selling, general and administrative expenses 8,235 9,315
Loss from operations (10,524 ) (5,953 )
Interest expense, net (4,736 ) (4,505 )
Other income, net 1,099 398
Loss before benefit for income taxes (14,161 ) (10,060 )
Benefit for income taxes — 563
Consolidated net loss (14,161 ) (9,497 )
Net loss attributed to noncontrolling interests 1,271 1,656
Net loss attributed to Pacific Ethanol, Inc. $ (12,890 ) $ (7,841 )
Preferred stock dividends $ (312 ) $ (312 )
Net loss available to common stockholders $ (13,202 ) $ (8,153 )
Net loss per share, basic and diluted $ (0.29 ) $ (0.19 )
Weighted-average shares outstanding, basic and diluted 45,517 42,912
PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC.
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(unaudited, in thousands, except par value)
ASSETS March 31,
2019 December 31,
2018
Current Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $ 21,751 $ 26,627
Accounts receivable, net 78,402 67,636
Inventories 62,731 57,820
Prepaid inventory 5,140 3,090
Other current assets 8,673 13,631
Total current assets 176,697 168,804
Property and equipment, net 472,735 482,657
Other Assets:
Right of use operating lease assets, net 41,839 —
Intangible asset 2,678 2,678
Other assets 5,072 5,842
Total other assets 49,589 8,520
Total Assets $ 699,021 $ 659,981
PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC.
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (CONTINUED)
(unaudited, in thousands, except par value)
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY March 31,
2019 December 31,
2018
Current Liabilities:
Accounts payable – trade $ 50,531 $ 48,176
Accrued liabilities 22,773 23,421
Current portion – operating leases 7,568 —
Current portion – long-term debt 143,148 146,671
Derivative instruments 5,156 6,309
Other current liabilities 6,993 7,282
Total current liabilities 236,169 231,859
Long-term debt, net of current portion 96,433 84,767
Operating leases, net of current portion 33,091 —
Other liabilities 23,969 23,990
Total Liabilities 389,662 340,616
Stockholders’ Equity:
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Stockholders’ Equity:
Preferred stock, $0.001 par value; 10,000 shares authorized; Series A: no shares issued and outstanding as of
March 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018
Series B: 927 shares issued and outstanding as of
March 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018 1 1
Common stock, $0.001 par value; 300,000 shares authorized; 48,884 and 45,771 shares issued and outstanding as of March 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018, respectively 49 46
Non-voting common stock, $0.001 par value; 3,553 shares authorized; 1 share issued and outstanding as of March 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018 — —
Additional paid-in capital 936,643 932,179
Accumulated other comprehensive expense (2,459 ) (2,459 )
Accumulated deficit (643,202 ) (630,000 )
Total Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Stockholders’ Equity 291,032 299,767
Noncontrolling interests 18,327 19,598
Total Stockholders’ Equity 309,359 319,365
Total Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity $ 699,021 $ 659,981
Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Loss
Three Months Ended
March 31,
(in thousands) (unaudited) 2019 2018
Net loss attributed to Pacific Ethanol, Inc. $ (12,890 ) $ (7,841 )
Adjustments:
Interest expense* 4,736 4,404
Benefit for income taxes — (563 )
Depreciation and amortization expense* 9,706 9,654
Total adjustments 14,442 13,495
Adjusted EBITDA $ 1,552 $ 5,654
________________
* Adjusted for noncontrolling interests.
Commodity Price Performance
Three Months Ended
March 31,
(unaudited) 2019 2018
Ethanol production gallons sold (in millions) 116.9 140.8
Ethanol third party gallons sold (in millions) 94.9 91.9
Total ethanol gallons sold (in millions) 211.8 232.7
Total gallons produced (in millions) 122.5 142.1
Ethanol production capacity utilization 82% 94%
Average ethanol sales price per gallon $ 1.53 $ 1.57
Average CBOT ethanol price per gallon $ 1.32 $ 1.42
Corn cost – CBOT equivalent $ 3.73 $ 3.57
Average basis $ 0.38 $ 0.27
Delivered corn cost $ 4.11 $ 3.84
Total co-product tons sold (in thousands) 684.1 798.0
Co-product return % (1) 38.8% 37.1%
________________
(1) Co-product revenue as a percentage of delivered cost of corn.
Company IR Contact: IR Agency Contact: Media Contact:
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Kirsten Chapman Paul Koehler
916-403-2755 LHA Pacific Ethanol, Inc.
Investorrelations@pacificethanol.com 415-433-3777 916-403-2790
paulk@pacificethanol.com
If an investor isn’t in it for the lawsuit, he isn’t in it for the right reasons.
Nothing else matters.
Sometimes an investor doesn't only ignore the point, but ignores everything that proofs him wrong. #GERS
Form 10K/A out, and it might contain some interesting information for you. Wink, wink https://seekingalpha.com/filing/4460181
“ $32.1 million for it (plus a modest brokerage commission of course), and if you saw the price of that stock go up 1.22% today, you would of course be jumping for joy because you had made $3,916 in one day!”
How much is 1.22% of 32.1 million???
No worries, you like links so you get this one for free:
https://www.google.com/search?q=how%20much%20is%201.22%25%20of%2032.1%20million
That's what I thought. Belonging to the Stock Incentive Plan they have. This can also be found in the filings.
I’ve supplied a link to information on Rule 10b5-1. And I would more than happy to supply information on where to find more info about the Stock Incentive Plan to anybody who asks me polite because they aren’t able to find that information themselves.
We will see Thursday.
But so far the only proof to a bullish signal supllied by youwas a article about Q4-2018 that should proof peix had a great Q1-2019, then it was insider buying because that could be on inside information which was allowed (but it wasn’t) and then the Stock Incentive Plan in the sec filings wouldn’t exist.
I am, but I still am not so optimistic about the upcoming earnings as you. I hope they are good, but I’m not expecting a rally towards $2
And to expect it based on a wrong interpretation of some buys by the board, doesn’t seem very smart to me. It might lead to a large disappointment. Especially when ignoring some facts from the sec filings.
I just don’t get how an investor can be so keen on companies filing in time, and then just aren’t able to find the necessary information in it. It seems like wanting to buy a car without knowing how to drive it.
If PEIX triples in value. But to make such an investment based on the wrong assumptions, isn’t very smart. If people wish to ignore info from sec filings to keep up their fantasies about reasons they think PEIX will move up, it’s their choice. If PEIX moves up it doesn’t matter. But if PEIX drops, and they lose money because they ignored the facts, and they bought believing in fantasies, they might end up disappointed at the least.
Especially those who have shown not to be able to stand the heat of the kitchen.