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Sold! haha. Sounds like that would be in the price range of the offering. You might have found it.
Another thought is a private company on nearby land where SD can further maximize their existing staff and infrastructure.
But frankly, I have no idea. I just hope that if they raise a bunch of money, the use it sensibly. They seem level-headed in earnings calls.
Half a billion is a lot of money. Fingers crossed that it gets put to good use
ETCC - Yeah, congrats on the move it's made. I'm not familiar with this company. Is it a company you think is turning the corner? Like hweb said, my quick glance at it looks like they've struggled with profitability. But if you think there's more to the story, I'd love to hear it.
Expensive Document
With whatever the company might be planning in filing the shelf registration, I was wondering how serious they are about doing something? Roughly, what is the total cost of filing an S-3? You can usually get a pretty good idea of seriousness by the amount of money willing to be spent.
The SEC filing fees alone are $46,350. Then, I have a buddy who's been general counsel to a couple of public companies. I asked him if a shelf registration is something you can usually handle in-house or would there be additional legal fees to hire an outside firm to help? If outside firm, is that like an additional $20-$30K, or how much? He said usually an outside firm is required becuz lots of reading and editing, have to make sure definitions and phrases are stated exactly correct, and match exactly with all previous documents, etc., tons of stuff the SEC requires. He said the tab would be more like $200k to $500k. I was floored. I said even if it never gets used, it might might be $250-$500k just to prepare and file that document? Yep.
So SD must be pretty serious about intending to use this offering. What for, I don't know, but that's likely a darned expensive document.
Ha, I like your thinking!
I don't claim to have much expertise in this area, but I think that's just a "catch-all" type of thing for "we're not selling these securities right now, but might at some point in the future" and then I think the shelf registration is good for a couple years or something
It's almost like a double-negative type of thing where I guess it can be read different ways. But I read it as "if it's gonna be delayed, then check this box -- the one reason to NOT check this box is if it's for a dividend reinvestment plan"
From listening to the call, my guess would be that the shelf is to have it available if needed when buying another company
SRTS had a good quarter. .21 vs (.02) last year:
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/sensus-healthcare-SRTS/stock-news/88762965/sensus-healthcare-second-quarter-2022-financial-re
Earnings call sounded positive.
Don't know if he'll prove to be correct on the market or not, but I think this thread is worth reading:
The first countertrend rally in The Bear always take us to a max stupid point. It becomes an echo of the prior top.
— Paulo Macro (@PauloMacro) August 4, 2022
Cloudbear calls this the All Clear Echo. 🧵
Spoiler - This is why you are seeing HKD happen 18mths after GME/Spac madness.
1/15
Listened to the call, and my reading between the lines is that they are leaning toward wanting to do an acquisition to take full advantage of their NOLs
Looks like about $5.50 per share cash. PR made no mention of buyback or dividend. I'd think you could do a one-time dividend of $2 or $2.50 and still have plenty of cash for operations and a safety buffer. Or even just $1 -- something.
Will be interesting earnings call becuz I'm sure they'll be asked. Maybe they'll say they're considering an acquisition or something like that, who knows.
I'm all for companies being conservative and not operating on debt, etc. But I also recall a quote from Peter Lynch's book. I believe he was quoting Hugh Liedtke of Pennzoil who said he believed in the "bladder theory" of corporate finance: the more cash that builds up in the company bank account, the greater the pressure to piss it all away.
Yeah, lots of companies are definitely opting to return money to their owners rather than putting more money in the ground, because they know the world's radical govts are totally hostile towards fossil fuels at the moment. When govts are saying your industry is going to be shut down in 10 years, what responsible CEO wants to make a long term investment in business infrastructure when that is the mindset?
lakes, very sorry to hear the news of your wife's passing. hang in there. That's no fun.
Yeah, could be sell on the news, but personally I'd guess it has more to do with the EIA numbers that came out.
As far as earnings go, there is still hope of a special dividend or a buyback being announced. If that happened, it might give a 10-20% boost to the stock. Funny thing is, I think it would have had the same percentage boost if we were trading at $35 and the future was looking bright. So in the heyday, maybe a one-day boost of $7, whereas now I'd guess a max of $3 boost.
And there's obviously no guarantee that a div or buyback will be announced.
Sheesh, struggling to stay above the 16's. I think demand destruction occurred faster than most thought it would. Brought about by a serious rise in the price of everything, we may just be at the point were there's gonna be a reduced demand for everything as people just can't afford it or choose not to buy stuff. Maybe we witnessed the top in energy without realizing it, or without many foreseeing it. Supply may be steady or declining, but for the time being demand seems to be falling even faster.
There you go! Or maybe HKD should jump into the bidding for Twitter with a stock swap buyout offer
HKD - I remembered those two other crazy tickers. ORGO and PHUN were the two others that went crazy right out of the gate. PHUN ran to over $500 and ORGO over $200, and those were the craziest ones I'd ever seen before HKD.
But HKD blows away anything I've ever seen
HKD The amount of money being stolen here is amazing. I'd guess many of these are wash trades to drive the price up, but still there's gotta be huge losses coming for some newbies. In contrast, one of the stocks the SEC halted today on the daily list was VBVT. It went from .10 to about .75 on 12k shares, so we're talking about $10k in total activity.
Maybe the SEC should spend more time focusing on the big-dollar heists. Such wonderful judgment in how to "protect the public."
Oh you mean THAT Alexis Ren! Yeah I've never heard of her either. ha
Quite a few SPAC plays starting to run in the last few days. Maybe some interest is returning to SPACs. It's been doldrums for awhile.
A Tale of Two Stocks
No telling what causes certain stocks to move in certain ways. A lot of it is just luck. I've linked to the post from 15 days ago where I speculated that we were bottoming. Just the opposite of a blowhard post, this shows how it's just trying to play the probabilities.
I bought two stocks that day: SD and SBOW. SBOW is also unhedged, but leveraged.
Bought SBOW at $27.64 and it went almost straight up for like 6 days so I sold at 36.75, because it seemed like it had run way too far way too fast (it's now at $46. Oops! lol)
Bought SD at $15.01 and actually thought it had the better chance to be a runner -- unleveraged, lots of cash (will probably have almost $5 per share after earnings and maybe they will announce a dividend or buyback or something). It's struggling to hold $19
SBOW up about 66%, SD less than 26%. I have no idea why the huge difference. Anybody can come up with a reason after the fact (when you know the answer), but it's almost impossible to know in advance. Luck is always a big factor. Hopefully it suggests that SD could still run quite a bit. But just look at the difference in the steepness of these two charts:
SBOW: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=sbow&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
SD: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SD&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p64293747708
HKD Looks like a perfectly normal stock chart to me! ha. Reminds me of that time during the govt shutdown (including the SEC) and a couple of spacs ran into the 500's in just a few days
Totally agree that on the buybacks it didn't seem that undervalued to me either. It's a thinly traded low-float stock and stocks like that can frequently trade for 5 or 6 times earnings, so I didn't think it was cheap at all. I remember thinking, wow, to be buying back at this price they must really be seeing some ramp-up in sales from their marketing efforts. Instead, looks like they just *assumed* their marketing was going to work.
Agreed that there is WAY more uncertainty now. I've reduced size as well. At least the buyback using debt didn't go thru. Thank goodness for that.
Just seems like trying to do things in the most complicated way possible. In all the years I've been investing I think I've had one company do a dutch tender auction. Here, the CEO wanted to do two of them in the space of about a year. Those things are expensive, huge legal fees. And in the last one he wanted to take on a bunch of debt too! That's crazy. Puts the entire company at risk.
I see no need for all the fancy financial engineering. He seems to think he can turn a slowly growing company into a huge growth stock by leveraging up. Incredibly dangerous. Good chunk of the cash on the balance sheet is now gone. Would have much rather seen a special dividend.
Lots of buzzwords, fancy terminology, data analysis . . . . and substantially lower earnings. Not terribly impressed with new mgt
https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/340422/content
PRPH That update call from the other day is now available online, should you wish to watch it:
https://renmark-drupal.s3.amazonaws.com/vndr/ProPhase-Labs-Inc/2022-07-21/index.html
Yeah, those I understand -- where it's a few hundred shares here or there over several days, etc. But this was all 10,000 executed instantly, and I get confirmation of 100 different fills of 100 shares each. Crazy
Ha, I just bought some too and it was another one of those crazy ones where I got like 100 different executions for 100 shares each. Had that happen once before and it ended up working out okay, but why the trades aren't bundled together I'll never understand
Lovely! congrats
Yeah, no kidding. If I got the news a day or two before everyone else, I'm not sure it would help me any. ha.
Govt not moving fast on Freeeport LNG inspection. They can't be bothered to come out before Freeport LNG's annual inspection, so the inspection will be Sept 13-15. The news reports don't make it totally clear, but I doubt the company would be allowed to start any repairs before the inspection. I wouldn't be surprised if the restart gets delayed again.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-regulators-inspect-shuttered-texas-lng-plant-september-2022-07-19/
All the political incentives are to keep LNG shut down. Lower energy prices in the U.S. Panders to global warming crowd. And the environmentalists. All in the name of safety.
I'm still quite concerned that Cheniere's LNG (much bigger than Freeport) gets shut down as well (would send US natgas prices plunging). Out of the blue, EPA seems to be taking a hard line. Eventually, I think the govt would lose in court, but the reality is they hate fossil fuels of any kind. It's an odd circumstance that, in the short term, they could keep LNG shut down, AND lower electricity prices locally. That may be tough to pass up politically, keeping in mind that they don't care about fairness, and most have never had any experience running a business. Plus it seems all these elitists actually WANT chaos and collapse in Europe to make everyone dependent on centralized govts , and it would help that too:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Cheniere-says-an-EPA-rule-hurts-Ukraine-response-17313373.php
Would've expected this to be a good day for energy. Instead, it started out nicely, but now flipsy-daisy
PRPH - Karkus announced a buyback today. He seems pretty confident. We'll find out soon enough if his confidence is misplaced or not:
https://press-releases-renmark.s3.amazonaws.com/1658841165.PRPH-07262022-EN.pdf
NG getting closer to 10. New high for this move
PRPH Yes, I listened to it and was pretty satisfied with all the answers. The federal funding for testing under HRSA hasn't yet been renewed and may not be, but even at that he made it sound like they're still doing quite well with just testing being done thru insurance reimbursements and cash pay. The next two quarters tend to be lower (both were losses last year) but analysts project a Q2 profit. Someone asked if analysts have been pretty accurate with their estimates, Karkus said he doesn't give guidance, but if anything analysts have tended to be a little on the low side.
If I recall, he also said the genomics biz is expected to be launched in retail in 2nd half of this year. So we should be able to see where that's going pretty soon, but Karkus was very optimistic. If I recall correctly, The Equivir product he thinks is a no-brainer.
It's possible Karkus is a little over-optimistic on getting into biotech. But as he said yesterday, he's the largest shareholder and most of his wealth is in the company, so he's certainly not going to continue investing in drugs or therapies that don't show promise. If the studies stop coming in good, then it ends. If the studies continue to come in nicely, then at each stage of further proof, he can possibly bring in a drug company partner at higher and higher amounts as studies move along. It sounded like a reasonable plan.
I see the company's ties to retail drug stores as a big plus for the genomics biz, and we should know pretty soon if that's going to amount to anything or not. If it works out, then that should be worth plenty on its own, so that's more what I'm looking at, plus Karkus is still very optimistic about their lab business. They are expanding the square footage of their lab.
PRPH My guess is because the analyst lowered his price target from $25 to $9 about a year ago is what caused the beef. Yesterday, Karkus said he hasn't talked to the guy in about a year. The guy paints a dark picture that the company is worried that Covid testing is ending and thus the company is in a mad scramble to figure out some new business and is grasping at straws with genomics testing and getting in to biotech without understanding of the process.
In the call yesterday, Karkus thinks these are perhaps the best two deals of his career.
So I'd say the two guys are somewhat at odds lol.
Karkus has also been pretty insistent that the covid testing is not only not ending, but they've also expanded their lab into all other types of testing. The analyst seems to be more focused on the idea that this was supposed to be a covid-only company and they shouldn't be changing into something else. But of course that isn't even the history of the company. Karkus is more of a "let's get into any business that makes money" kind of guy.
Here's the analyst's report:
https://dawsonjames.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/PRPH.7.21.22-final1.pdf
PRPH Bought a few more in the $8's, but I been wrong so far
PRPH got pounded today, as an analyst gave them a Sell reco. Company also held an update call today and CEO probably spent about 20% of the time talking about this analyst. Sounded mainly like they had a falling out for some reason and not hugely related to the company. Bought a little in the 9's
Feels like such a victory just to see $17's
We haven't zoomed up, but at least we've temporarily stopped going down! lol
2% up days are better than 10% down days
Lazar seems to be switching more to activist investing, at the moment:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/07/11/2477242/0/en/Activist-Investing-Nominates-Slate-of-Highly-Qualified-Director-Candidates-for-Election-to-the-Board-of-Directors-of-Titan-Pharmaceuticals-at-Upcoming-Special-Meeting-of-Stockholde.html