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Shadow,
The ad site although nicely designed could be a flop easily enough, I don't know. How to measure traffic by the way?
Still, though if running a dishonest company seems like the ad site is the thing to promote: why kill quickly your credibility announcing false buyouts? I still don't get it. Seems like there is less dramatic ways to pump. What is your opinion?
sam
Shadow,
What is your response?
For those who think these offers are not legit, why would this sort of game be going on, you think, given that the ad site looks legit with places to go and cars to sell?
sam
Rruff,
I think the only true positive I can think of to feel good about is if the top guy here really has sunk a lot of his own money over the years into this.
What with the activity typically is for an insider in general on a pinkie, I don't know what the real scoop is on this story.
sam
Sorry for my reposts, did not show. Question is how can I verify anything on this one to know whether this is a winner or not?
sam
Trying to study this one. I tried their famous rapidly growing website by going to their personals where you search for a woman. I gave a wide-age range and 100 miles from austin,tx zip and there were no hits.
Thoughts?
sam
Rawnoc,
If they could the market makers would be glad to sell shares for you at -.005.
sam
Ruff,
I am thinking proof of business success needs to come first. Is there any initiative to date that has borne the expected fruit?
I think any price between .006 and .03 is the correct range until success is visible.
I think shareholder friendliness only currently warrants that .03.
I think the ultimate unfriendliness was to announce a reverse split if instead at least if any good news is coming mix the reverse announcement with the good news to somewhat offset.
If he was trying to punish shorts, then he is mentally deficient for his position I think.
sam
I accuse Rawnoc of trying to get a profit out of trudy.
sam
RGYLF:
Got immediate fill on buy at 4000 shares 1.40 limit.
sam
Arbpro,
The only reason I am long is a belief I can make money from today by continuing to hold.
I don't have the belief that this company deserves a gold standard or a pat on the back. I don't trust management, but are they basically openly lying about their reported numbers? Perhaps a little, but if they are truly growing and came close to 17 cents for 2nd quarter, let's pick an adjusted figure of 13 cents as the real truth for guesswork and a growth rate of 20% to not be too excited.
52 cents annualized with a modest pe of 12 would still mean upside.
I am negative about the lack of revealing of financials, but it is a fair open question about the risk versus reward on this in my opinion.
sam
Thanks. Sounds like more than 50% chance to make 5 fold plus.
sam
Thanks Rawnoc eom
Rawnoc,
I will play for the moment role of arch critic. What kind of lender would want to loan to this company? An example of who and why would be appreciated.
sam
Thanks maddog. Without that human interaction, no doubt you would be more uncertain.
I still feel time is running out on financials before the prudent will jump ship somewhat, but they at least are giving hard figures on units sold and autos sold per month and they are at record highs. They should start giving dollar breakdowns in revenue monthly if that is possible. I don't know the accounting world. The last part is not necessary if June figures are published.
sam
Maddog,
What percentage chance would you give that management is simply not trustworthy people?
sam
The point on endless delays in audits:
investors have been somewhat forgiving as the company keeps bringing up a changing landscape such as acquisitions to delay, however I think the end has come more than likely for delays that will be acceptable.
My opinion is if there is no audit released for the June quarter in October the stock will come down in price.
sam
Snow, I don't have an answer for what you are saying on those items.
I would say say though that deceptions from the top right now have no chance of going very far if that is what they are.
Nobody is likely to forget completely the numbers mentioned for 2nd quarter. Nobody I should think is going to be happy if there is no audited numbers coming out soon for the 2nd quarter.
511 units versus 1000 may be a big disappointment but that is small potatoes compared to the 2nd qtr earnings story.
sam
Rruff,
Actually some pinkies report super growth. Those are typically more dangerous because usually not true.
I will say in comparison but I can't prove that is is true, I have more faith in quality of management for Tandem TDYH than IGTN. IGTN is very industrious but I will take revenue over industrious.
I will continue to hold some position in IGTN, wish I had sold a greater portion above .4.
sam
IGTN:
No question it is cheap. Also probably opportunities to cause price rises.
What I don't know is:
can management be trusted to be both honest and competent, so far the most measurable item in my opinion revenue may not be falling but it so far has not grown in a worthy manner
sam
In the long run whether we have a good chance at a big winner depends not on issues like reverse splits, it depends on whether first off the ceo is an honest and hard working guy.
If he is that we can still lose but we can be more patient. I think when it comes to competency issues:
even if revenues from 2004 to 2005 are not really falling, they certainly are nowhere near rapid growth.
Thoughts on any of this?
sam
TRUST/Sands letter,
The only meaty thing in my opinion in the letter is the claim of management putting their own money on the line.
Trust is key to everything about this company. If they are honest it is a cheap bet.
Can anyone add to the letter's comments about their own money put here?
sam
Thanks Rawnoc.
sam
Yes Doubloon. I have read that more than once.
Without seeing a growth pattern unfolding, it may be that some in the industry want to see the independent engineer report first.
If memory serves, that should be soon.
sam
Doubloon, I don't know how to place a value on reserve statements in terms of accuracy. I think having ownership of 2 rigs should be viewed as a very quality thing.
If the company has big success drilling in today's prices I think $12-$20 or more down the line will happen.
Without so much success, it is probably still well under-valued. I think one thing about this stock I am counting on is a stable o/s.
sam
Doubloon,
Off-hand I don't recall reading so my question is what is the historical track record of production increases for this company.
Doubling or more production in 12 months would be nice but not all companies meet that kind of goal.
sam
HESG:
My concern is no detailed figures.
sam
MCDG:
Current story appears good. The question is what is the future?
sam
RAWNOC/OT:
Here is a new story that looks kind of up your alley. I would like your thoughts on MCDG.
sam
I see I posted a non-qualifying but I think something over $1 in a higher exhange 50 fold in one year there may be no candidates.
Even the one I mentioned I think would take more than 12 months minimum but there is no difference between symd.ob < $1 and say DCTH on nasdaq at near $3 in terms of likelihood except symd is better than DCTH for 50 fold purposes in a shorter time span I think. They are both final phase products.
sam
This could be a 50 bagger at bottom.
Comparison:
SYMD.ob versus VPHM:
A useful comparison I think because of revenue potential for SYMD versus what VPHM experiencing;
VPHM ---SYMD (estimated FDA approval 2006)
VPHM over 10M revenue/month July going over 12M/month on latest
price increase compared to SYMD estimated market $250m/yr
VPHM took on debt to purchase rights to their product + ongoing royalty payout-- versus SYMD may need partner to achieve revenue
57 m o/s fully diluted --versus SYMD 70 m o/s fully diluted and
guessing < 100m by time of cash flow positive
$1 billion current cap on VPHM
estimated $2 billion on
expected earnings and pe 25
Summary $2 billion market cap would be reasonable for symd if they start showing at some point post-approval significant growing revenues that make $250 million revenue look possible.
That would make share value > $20 and current price 35 cents.
The biggest risk for SYMD is not getting approval, but if you look at it I think you will see it probably will. It has further pipeline if the initial product passes. Complete under the radar now. Only message board I know is under ragingbull previous symbol chai. Message board is not very active but there are a few significant long-term holders.
sam
Other dog great term eom
Cleverrox,
The only way to normally get 200% a year is with I think your plan to place the bulk of your money in 5 stocks or less.
My track record has never been good enough for me to take that approach. I would say in any case that only smaller portfolios should do that.
sam
Bobwins what can one do in that game?
sam
I think it still comes down to an audit soon that proves or not their earnings in June.
If they don't produce such an audit and soon, then we all will make our own judgement.
If a positive audit comes through then that supports the theory that they would not issue meaningless fluff prs because the real numbers would be all they need to support a higher price, so one could take an approach then that any pr has merit.
sam
How about this view?
Remaining wells + winter drilling adds to earnings .10/share per quarter by 2nd calendar quarter of next year based on $9.00 for price of ng.
Previous qtr reported 11 cents. With more tax and higher gas offsetting, keep at 11 cents that part - 1 cent for depletion or 10 cents.
.10 + .10 = 20 cents/qtr at that point or 80 cents per year with a conservative pe of 15 or $12.
If gas spikes into teens, expect higher Aspen price. Also the net profit percentage ratio to revenue increases also due to higher prices so $12 should be lower end of price target.
sam
Part of the argument for pe of 30 is if tracking device appeals.
Real pe in my opinion is a bet on future quality of management. People may bet that way if $1.00 plus earnings is true for 2006.
sam
I don't know the industry. I don't know the quality of the reserves.
I hope that failed wells at this point don't mean anything regarding the reserve potential.
My guess is the next 12 months will be required anyway to judge how fast revenue increases which depends on reserves and company execution. I think it would be great, don't know if possible that production be doubled in next 12 months.
Also rosy hopes for the company are tied to gas and oil prices.
sam
The only question for those in the know is how much of the reserves was in the commercial failure zone.
sam
I agree.
I still think $15-$20 could be upside but most of us will be in black well before $5.
sam
I don't trust rulemakers eom