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Stockpeeker,
You said the stockholders feel screwed. Do you think they are so or just feeling?
sam
Question for bulls from a weak bull,
What do you think is the story on Hector, when did he last post?
Thoughts on $600K judgement story?
Did the pr on audits having to be done etc. bother you?
What is the latest on data center upgrade?
sam
Drop is obvious. Lack of clarity on a pressing issue in a company that people are fearful about.
If it is too good to be true is the principle at work. I am holding until things are clearer to me.
sam
Thanks. I am surprised that with production output growing so fast that you consider $12/share in much jeopardy even with $9 for natural gas.
sam
Other than an unlikely I think steep decline in natural gas prices, do you see any reason for stock next year to be any lower than $12?
sam
Yankee,
My take is on question of morals issue first, I have no clue as to what kind of man the ceo is. I could say the same for about any ceo, unless I suspect a recent negative.
On question of intelligence, I believe he is intelligent. It seems very unlikely to me that an intelligent man would be creating a falsehood about dividend and buyout.
sam
Anybody really know anything to believe earnings will be close to target or well below?
sam
Thanks again bob eom
Bob/RGYLF:
If one assumes $1.00 canadian cash flow 2006, what is a proper value?
I read your post of juniors forward 9 so even 6 leads me to wonder about your price expectations?
sam
Bobwins,
Currently what is your expected future cash flow per share estimate in Canadian for rival energy?
At what multiple to that do you think it should trade?
What message board is available? I thought there was one under ihub but I did not see it today.
sam
Datatech,
Working with numbers company provided, one could hope for calendar 2006 of 700,000 ads a month or $7 million revenue a month.
Earnings could be 80 cent to $1.00 per share calendar 2006 again playing with the 2006 fiscal estimates of comparing .21-23 on $25-30 million revenue.
sam
Thanks Datatech. eom
Datatech,
Can you discuss travel section a bit? I assume some are tired of topic but I was not around when it was a topic.
sam
Datatech,
Thanks for the comparison on price. It was bigger difference than some previous post from somebody else I believe.
If traffic continues to climb, then business will come and hopefully profits will work as predicted. I never meant to imply destroying competition, just getting the revenue and profits.
sam
Datatech,
I can understand at a high-level the ad site.
I view it as an ambitious task to succeed in this field. High risk and high reward.
Do you not agree that it is no simple thing to succeed, but it is an achievement just to be a serious competitor?
sam
Datatech,
I am assuming you are the most knowledgeable long on this company, at worst a tie.
Do you have any doubts about any past pr info by the company?
If 995ad.com is growing as fast as Hector reports, I suppose sooner or later there possibly will be no doubts about it.
It is fair for anybody to analyze very closely everything.
Post dividend, I would assume the company is very confident about their cash situation since they are not keeping any proceeds. Are you expecting positive earnings, no hitches?
sam
Thanks Rrufff eom
Rrufff,
What are your thoughts on the drop in ttgh?
sam
No, pr says use 100% of proceeds eom
Bartermania,
This brings up a question. Why if there was a possibility of a dividend, why would anybody in their right mind have shorted?
Seems like any company that could hang a dividend over a short's head would cause a short to think twice.
sam
Why distrust anybody that pays out 100% in dividend?
There is only one argument against company. That this is all a hoax.
Apparently some people still beieve that is a possibility or price would be higher.
Personally I am holding but not adding. I can't say that is the best way to handle.
sam
One thing I do believe is if we receive dividend, everything left will be seen differently.
There will be more trust in both ability and in belief that ceo is a straight shooter.
sam
Short question?
Are shorts required to pay dividend as right to have short position? I have read such before. Seems logical as shorting when not naked anyway means you have borrowed stock and thus borrowed liability of dividend I would think.
If so and they believe this, they would want to cover, right?
sam
I knew it was not part unless decided to include in finalizing of deal, but has company ever said most valuable part?
sam
Assuming dividend goes through, any guesses on the price of company following event?
I assume most value would be considered in ad.com. Anybody have guesses about that, other than zilch or extremely valuable, I don't trust extremes.
sam
Shadow, it is on yahoo eom
Travel guess,
It looks like very few small customers have placed ads regarding travel/hotels, ie zero revenue to 995ad.com.
However, there is a passageway to a large world-wide resort, just 1 I believe not 6.
I again think that the smarts are on the web-site of the world-wide resort and that web-site knows how many customers are coming in via 995-ad.com and would pay according to that number.
sam
Fred,
I do believe short selling could hurt any legitimate company that has not reached sufficient positive cash flow, which until that time if reasonable stock prices are not available has to seek funds through loans.
Any company other words that needs money is always vulnerable.
sam
Answer,
It appears to me there are 6 world-wide chains covered. You can search on a particular chain by different places like Belgium, Mexico, etc..
Agree/disagreements?
Keep asking questions. Good or bad company, either way do it.
sam
OT:
Characteristics of 1918 different from most flu years was many were younger killed. Also true of other 2?
sam
ot Were those 2 occasions at all comparable to 1918?
sam
Rawnoc,
I noticed 9.7 million shares. Could it be interpreted as good news the dilution has slowed down in speed?
I have none of this and am not thinking of reentry without recent audits, that is audits on recent history. There will never be up-to-date audits in my opinion.
Offtopic on your favorite flu topic:
historically speaking has anything much happened since 1917? An argument against this mega-threat?
sam
Rruff,
Do you have an opinion on idws?
sam
Shadow,
All issues take a back-seat to the buyout offer. If it fails this will hurt the stock price whether you are on target or not.
If buyout really happens backed by a real dividend, it still does not matter whether you are on target about other issues.
If the buyout is a con and he skates home-free from jail, still I would argue why is he doing it? Doesn't seem like a smart con if he was hoping to milk for a long-time this stock.
If this is the final act of a con on this story, you won't have to keep watch much longer.
sam
Shadow,
Perhaps you are right but that was a speculative response. I think whatever your purpose, it is good for any buyer to pause and think about what is happening on any interesting pinkie.
How about solid proof though or if you can't provide something to prove, how about an answer as to why this pinkie captures all your attention when there are many, many colorful and controversial pinkies.
sam
Shadow,
I am not prepared to say I believe or disbelieve anybody surrounding this stock except I believe probably the longs are simply non-insider longs whether they have done good dd or not. I am not a great dd guy myself.
I am long since Friday shortly before close. I think people will ask for an investigation if the buyout story fades. It is not a rational risk by any means in my opinion for somebody on probation.
If you legitamately believe this is a con, state the facts clearly please. Also state whether you think the company is a straight con or exactly what?? and whether you consider that a fact or just your reasoned guess.
sam
Another question for shadow:
If I have the fact straight the top guy is on probation for fraudalant activity.
Should not that fact be viewed as a positive on the claim of buyout? That is far, far too dangerous a thing to claim if you are already on probation.
sam
Shadowwatch,
Exactly for my benefit, why do you think this is a con game?
I am not interested in the float topic. Most pinkies fail to meet all their promises.
I would like to know the exact story on the trouble in the past. Why probation and exactly how many years ago? Beyond this past criminal activity?? and questioning the future success of the company regarding the ad site, you need to say more to justify calling con game, perhaps you did but I have not read.
Did the man have success with the cheaper phone rates?
sam
Laptoptrader,
Everybody judges in their own way. Your comment by the way that my style is always the same holds little meaning.
Isn't that true of almost everybody?
In my opinion, the buyout offer looks great so the book value of $1.00 looks good until somebody shows me that that is not accurate.
Besides that, future earnings guesses on a new company in a competitive business by definition should be viewed as iffy.
Part of how I look at a company is analyzing the pro and con posters. Pure rah rah or pure what a dog comments get assessed zero value.
sam
Shadow,
Looks like you are completely right about the website not being up to par currently and therefore risky.
They are trying to succeed I believe, but that is not special necessarily.
The press release though makes it look like no room for wiggle room. News on sale could be no later than oct 17 but far more likely before open on oct 10.
Lots of selling this Monday and on into week if there is no news.
sam