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By assumption I mean the company needs to be well-run now. From the looks of things, I say 85-90 percent chance the company is an improving company over time.
The chance they have no near-term stumbles I say 70%.
sam
Rrufff,
I agree with you that for micro-caps especially shareholder friendliness is very important.
I have never seen this, but what do you think about the idea of every pr include curr o/s, o/s history, o/s explanation towards history.
sam
755K trailing I figure is reasonably best case. That implies 2 further quarters if all goes well of 300K each could give 1450K trailing or a pe below 4.
If all goes well .06 to .07 easy with a pretty modest pe heading towards fall. With a reverse split and listing on higher exchange that would leave interesting guessing.
Do my numbers look right? This is all on assumption of a well-run operation.
sam
Thanks Rawnoc. I remember that too. Are you guessing perhaps 400K?
sam
Rawnoc,
What is your projection if this quarter earnings are double from previous quarter? Also do you think a double is possible? Third, how much is dependent on how the company writes its press release, for example if a small pump?
sam
Dr. Bill,
I believe you have proof that management does not care about price from day to day. That is a good indicator of a scam, but I don't think it is a scam. It is not possible to justify GFCI.
sam
dr,
Now I understand. 15 million float, 285 in management and cronies hands. 95% of distriubtion of ctbg shares goes to management therefore.
Market understands this, so that is why ctbg is outperforming. If all true, as I have said before I would not buy ctbg. That would be like playing Russian roulette with the odds against you. If GFCI is a bad buy, don't buy CTBG either.
Any scenario for any company I suppose is to find a way for management to end up with all the assets. Nothing about gfci is different from another except for one thing, lack of knowledge about share count. This is groundwork for suspicion. Not a shred of proof though. Also to push for a blatant case of 300M only makes sense as a form of entertainment.
You may be accurate that it is 100% theoretically possible but that is not enough.
sam
Dr.
Saying 300M I figure is for pure entertainment.
For entertainment purposes, are most of these shares in the float? When a company is running a high-speed share printing press, do most shares go to float or are they restricted?
If it is part of the float, who owns it? Cleverox worked hard to arrive at 9.8 million. I believe that was over half the float. Since then among that 9.8 million, have most been dumping or most been adding, I say breakeven. How could you suggest that grifco has added a lot more new buyers? I say new buyers showed some interest in CTBG shares in brief buying episodes.
If float is 15 million which I say is in ballpark based on evidence to date, do you believe 300 m os with 15 million float?
sam
symd.ob news this morning about still on target for trial to be finished mid this year.
Also new message board for symd finally created on ragingbull.
Ultimate blue sky forecast would be $2.00/share earnings from lead product in 2 years. With any forward guessing, who knows?
sam
ragingbull trouble:
Anybody getting error or reading message boards there?
Response object error 'ASP 0156 : 80004005'
Header Error
/home/lookup.asp, line 54
The HTTP headers are already written to the client browser. Any HTTP header modifications must be made before writing page content.
sam
dr bill,
Right now one can speculate anything. Speculation of evil is speculation the same as blue sky speculation.
The story though is getting ugly primarily for 3 reasons.
1) grifco was a dirty shell
2) nobody feels comfortable about gfci share count
why did BBB do a count if he was comfortable?
3) no report of jet motor
Number one could be forgiven. Number 2 and 3 can be temporarily viewed as oh well, but as time goes on, they can't.
Those who say they are tired of hearing about these problems, should blame management and not posters. Why the hell should posters drop the issue?
sam
Also Dr Bill,
If Swinford had been tricked, what would a trickster do if he duped a smart guy with a gold mine called jet motor. He would turn legitimate and rake in the fortune.
sam
Dr. Bill,
On this story logic seems hard to come by.
If Swinford CTT may be legit, then it does not seem logical that GFCI would be a total scam. That would only be the case if Swinford was somehow tricked along with everybody else.
sam
Ninja,
Depending on how many shares you have I would recommend scaling back gradually ever week that grifco disappoints, also scale back quicker on price spikes vs. troughs.
I have sold none yet.
I mentioned on the other board in best-case scenario company deserves 3 at most on scale of 1 - 10 for caring about shareholders short-term.
The number 3 will erode as the days go by without at least a mention of progress/status for jet motor, without clarification of corporate plans.
Also short-term ill treatment of shareholders is never justifiable. I think at times patience is required but that limit has passed.
I don't think one can eliminate scam as a possibility. I do think parts of the company are totally legit. Global tools I believe is completely real, but scamsters can make a better scam by mixing truth with fiction.
Does anybody know how to judge Swinford? Has anybody talked to new chief financial officer?
sam
Seems logical if the company is being truthful that if company is watching today they should be buying, but I don't know how or how much a small company devotes time to watching stock action
sam
Not quite, the price of stock is new
sam
Why did this jump? Unknown real value of dividend supposedly increased?
What is new? Why the faith?
I guess the best verifiable thing about this company is if o/s shares are less than the past. Is anybody keeping track? Does transfer agent reveal nbrs?
sam
For DEZ lovers, see GRS eom
Seems interesting? that a small company would have over $100 million cash available or is it easy to get a loan of that amount on tandem assets?
Also bizarre that we get $4.50/share.
sam
biom - good news eom
CXTI/SHARES:
Question was there 24 million shares for last qtr reported?
Is 4 million shares the amount likely added due to convertible?
sam
Bbotcs/IIIN,
I am still holding a little. The problem as I see it is the market believes in a low pe for this one.
Therefore a more reasonable 12 month target I think is $4.00 by 8 = 32.
sam
10 Bagger,
No post could equal a filing by CTBG.
sam
dr bill,
This company is clearly speculative.
At this moment the question is do you personally think it is a good speculation or a poor speculation?
If a poor speculation, do you think any non-reporting company is a poor speculation?
sam
CTBG has not spun off from gfci yet eom
I don't think there is a lot of motivation at current price quotes stated in earlier post to be either a buyer or a seller.
sam
Jonesieatl,
I don't think anyone knows what to predict, so there is a chance of competitive bid.
sam
What is the reasoning for selling at $3.70?
sam
The thing about Trudy so far is it is always a guessing game. The company could be in a solid growth pattern or it could be in a pattern of ups and downs with bad decisions or execution in some quarters.
The other question is could regardless of execution could they with license renewal be a convincing buyout candidate.
I think without proof of consistent growth and execution, the head of Trudy should take .03. Maybe in one year there will be proof, who knows?
sam
SYMD.ob price action hints somebody knows trial results???
sam
I like the approach for integrity of message board that if too many off-topic messages that you send a warning of "no more for the day", but so far vast majority of messages are about stocks. I personally have found some of the off-topic messages well worth reading.
sam
THREES/AVN:
When do you expect stage 3 for neurdex to be completed? How much value do you expect for that?
How likely to get $330 million and how long?
sam
SYMD.ob has been breaking out on low volume.
Nobody who knows the story is selling now because this is the expected year for action Europe first then U.S.
This stock is so unknown that to my knowledge the only lightly used message board is chai on ragingbull.
The biggest near-term question is they may be going after some financing. As always who can predict how that goes, do they get 20 cents per share, 30 cents, 40 cents ...
As I have compared to VPHM before, if they have a product that is proved to reduce wound adhesion post-surgery by a big margin, they could get close to $250 million revenue per year on just the first product out the chute. If that is close to reality, no one needs to care if o/s will be 70 million shares or 100 million shares when earnings happen.
sam
Rrufff,
I have zero understanding of titan, never understood it, never really tried to understand it.
I agree news looked bad and I tried to sell all of my small position at .16 and filled most of sell yesterday.
sam
THANKS RRUFFF EOM
Hi Rruff,
What are your thoughts on titan?
sam
What I think is stupid about this reverse split is it should have been a ratio of 2000 shares yielding 1 share which would have brought .0033 to $6.60.
sam
Maddog,
You are probably in agreement that most people think it was a lie the June quarter unaudited numbers.
If you believe different which I think you do, are you then willing to say that gross shameful negligence was committed to issue numbers that were so hugely different from following audited results?
Or to be more direct, if you had been running nowauto would you have ever put out the press release stating 17 cents in earnings? If you would not have yourself then in my opinion you should have bad feelings as a minimum towards management. Maybe you feel as people they are good, but as management you have a significant disagreement with that press release although you may feel you understand it.
I would like to know your view on all this.
I would not pursue a lawsuit as a former shareholder, but I did contact SEC and attorney general in Arizona. If they did not lie, it is still their own fault if they are investigated.
sam
thanks rrufff eom
Hi Rrufff,
Do you view now as time to buy INGEN?
So far seems like most of your reasoning is INGEN can go up if change of perception to shareholder friendly.
I have a different criteria for shareholder friendly. My criteria would be they become profitable. Their latest says no profit for fiscal 2006.
Is that a change in forecast? When it comes to all the promises they have made over time, I don't know the answer but I know the question: that is, have they been good overall about keeping promises? What is their score on filings? Other promises?
I suspect some people feel knifed in the back over r/s. I don't know enough to judge whether that is a justified feeling.
sam