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Biosante should change their to Biosante Oncolytics. It appears that most companies focusing on cancer research with oncology referenced in their name have a Market Cap in excess of $350 million
Remember they are seeking FDA approval not only on Bio-t-gel eventually Libigel and other product. If they were to start making purchases or sales prior to releasing important information to public, that could negatively impact the relationship with the FDA. You want to above board and transparent on everything. I believe for that reason alone no insider trading has occurred. They haven't even announced the patent applications regarding Cardiovascular benefits.
I bet after tomorrows conference you will start to see insiders starting to purchase.
The put the Biosante cancer program into perspective. Dendreon while developing Provenge, the first FDA approved cancer vaccine went from a low of $2.61 to a high of $54.06 in approx. 13 months. the price has since pulled back significantly as initial revenue didn't meet expectations. But it has started climbing since Medicaire now covers the $93,000 treatment. Dendreon is no where near as diversified as Biosante. Biosante has arguably the largest cancer treatment portfolio in clinical trials, a number of which are ready for phase III clinical trials. They are just waiting for funding or a partner.
Once GVAX (cancer vaccine) is approved the fact that it it can be mass produced (it is not patient specific) will cut down on production cost allowing for a lower price while maintaining higher profits. Once GVAX is unleashed companies that use patient specific treatments have a real concern. Which treatment do you think the government or HMO's will be willing to subsidize.
I am not sure on that, if you look at the PDUFA for Feb 14 it list Biosante.
Calendar
Connecting the dots.
According to the Nanotechnology in Drug Delivery 2011-2021 report some forecasts have predicted the nanotechnology market to reach close to a trillion dollars by 2015
Nanotechnology in Drug Delivery 2011-2021
Notice that Biosante is right up there on list included in the report.
Combine that with the quality of the science in their patent portfolio and that Biosante is the benchmark in research intensity.
Patent Scorecard info
Bio-t-gel and Libigel aside the future looks very bright for Biosante who is among the leaders and taking steps to ensure they remain among the leaders in this growing field.
Sell your shares if you like but at these prices this has become part of my accelerated retirement plan.
I agree, the beauty of being on the inside looking out.
I am not an expert in media relation, but I believe a responsible will chose to strategically release information when its suits them. While assessing Libigel they had a number of issues which I believe they will eventually overcome. You always want to finish on high note. With the share price under pressure this will become part of their positive information surge to to get the price to where it belongs. I believe it is a tactical move on their part.
I am not certain if it replaces it in it's entirety or just where there is a conflict.
I have added a link to more in depth cancer program info - read the threads it is good info.
More cancer vaccine info
You are correct there are a few other ways to get the 2 points in combination (ie, 60 with blood pressure issues) They mention documented history of cardiovascular disease since family history plays a very important role in predicting the likely hood of CV events I bet many physicians would prescribe it as well due to family history.
You are correct but I believe that the product will be marketed to 4 target groups
- Women with HHSD - not all post menopausal women suffer from HHSD
- Post menopausal women with testosterone deficiency
- Post menopausal women at risk to cardiovascular disease
- Improving cognitive function in menopausal and post menopausal women which is being studied in Australia
Clinical trial initiated to evaluate LibiGel on cognitive function in menopausal women
Actually, there were two patent applications, one of which indicates that Libigel's sexual dysfunction target is still on the table. Both applications also target Cardiovascular disease.
Methods for decreasing cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women
Methods for treating sexual dysfunction while decreasing cardiovascular risk
I imagine more information on this will come out at the conference.
Win, lose or draw on Feb 14th, BPAX is not going away. In the Biotech and drug industry it starts with the science. Obviously BPAX does very well in the science department and for this reason those with patience will be rewarded.
Little known fact Cell Genesys which was bought out by Biosante was formed in 1988. In 1996 Cell Genesys Launches Abgenix Cell Genesys spun out its antibody therapy business into a wholly-owned subsidiary, Abgenix, Inc. Abgenix went public in 1998 and became a Nasdaq-100® company in 2000. In 2006 Abgenix was purchased by Amgen for $2.2.billion the prize product brought from Abgenix was Vectibix® (panitumumab) The only FDA-approved anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody with every-other-week dosing.
Technically Elestrin is not the only product developed by Biosante (Cell Genesis) to get FDA approval.
Cell Genesys History
Sale of Abgenix
Vectibix® (panitumumab)
BPAX hitting way above its weight in Science Strength
BIOTECHNOLOGY FROM TOP TO BOTTOM, BY SCIENCE STRENGTH
Monday, February 06, 2012
Below, companies and private research firms are grouped by their Patent Board science strength ranking which is based on the scale, quality, impact, and nearness to core science of a company's patent-based intellectual property. This overall strength rating factors in both qualitative and quantitative aspects of a company's patent portfolio. The charts help to spot the leaders in each group and across the board. All indicators based on 13-week rolling averages.
Patent Scorecard
Here are the top 16 companies that BPAX competes with and their market cap .
Roche Holding Ltd. (ADR) $162.94 billion
Johnson & Johnson $176.41 billion
Amgen, Inc. $53.62 billion
Biogen Idec Inc. $28.20 billion
Life Technologies Corp. $ 8.83 billion
Human Genome Sciences $ 1.89 billion
Merck & Co., Inc. $115.55 billion
ISIS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $830.75 million
Bristol Myers Squibb Co. $54.06 billion
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $518.80 million
Sanofi SA (ADR) $99.94 billion
Immunomedics, Inc. $277.93 million
Incyte Corp $2.14 billion
Geron Corporation $262.29 million
Gilead Sciences, Inc. $40.48 billion
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $ 2.51 billion
Biosante $93.62 million
You will notice that BPAX, Geron, Immunomedics, Alnylam and ISIS are the only companies with a market cap of less then $1.89 billion
Very Important:If you looked at the link I provided you will see that BPAX is the benchmark for research intensity.
This proves the science behind BPAX is solid.
Another possible acquisition would be Cold Genesys or the product they have in phase II/III trial. This product was originally owned by Biosante
Efficacy Study of Recombinant Adenovirus for Patients With Resistant Superficial Bladder Cancer (BOND)
Purpose
The use of a designed viral vector that can destroy cancer cells while leaving normal cells largely unharmed. The virus also stimulates an immunological response by producing a special factor (GM-CSF) to attract and promote the development of dendritic and T effector cells. It forms the hypothesis that this regimen may be used for people who have failed current forms of treatment and are recommended for cystectomy. It is with hope that this novel therapy will be able to delay or potentially avoid cystectomy for this patient population. Bladder instillation of this agent causes little long lasting side effects and may drastically improve the stimulation of local cancer cell death and destroy tumor cells that has traveled to distant places as well as to surrounding lymph nodes.
Phase II/III trial
Interestingly the trial was updated Feb 7th, 2012 and the start date is April 2012. (Good timing)
Just realized that there is a phase 2b to the Parkinson Disease CRE 120 trials still ongoing. Therefore if this is the target of their acquisition Phase III may not start until 2013 or 2014
Safety and Efficacy of CERE-120 in Subjects With Parkinson's Disease
You are most likely right they don't care about the shares movement by message board posters. I would be looking for info that may come from disgruntled employees or whistle blowers. They have to vent and venting can materialize anywhere including message boards.
But maybe, I expect them to be more thorough then they are.
Valuable information can be found almost anywhere. I agree analysts and institutions most likely won't post here unless they are following a lead. But, if they are good at what they do they will look at all leads including message boards. A junior analyst has to start somewhere. True you may have to filter through a lot of crap to find the nugget. You can use the lead and then seek information to corroborate it.
All the research I have done on this company. Leads me to believe that there is a reason for everything they do or don't do. The company has some very intelligent and methodical people. In time we will see how smart they were. I believe they would have loved to tell us everything will be okay and explain why, but it may have been premature and could have negatively impacted future plans or run afoul of the FDA. They must play by their rules
If you take a good look at diversity of the BPAX Pipeline and the timing of the milestone movements of the various products it ensures there is always one or more product at the forefront. It looks like it was designed by a very good project manager (not left to chance.)
They realize they must restore share value, but without derailing their long term vision.
Not so Nutsy Professer, as i understand it Jeff from Yahoo board has been a long time GVAX proponent. Obviously I concur with his assessment. I believe the coverage from the Lancet could attract more well healed and well informed investors which should put some upward pressure on the share price before Libigel info comes out.
That is correct but can't help but notice the coincidence that Biosante is presenting at 10:30 am on Feb 14th.
I have added the Ceregene link look at pipeline, board of directors
Ceregene
News article explaining that in 2001 Ceregene was formed as a subsidiary of Cell Genesys
Cell Genesys Subsidiary
I have already provided the link to the phase 2 trial.
Once again this purely speculation.
They had already stated publicly that hey were shopping for a product or a company. As for you conversation. I wasn't their. I am sure they have script read off. Any media or PR department has a script and they must stay on message.
I believe the call will be pointless and the information will be released when BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Presents at Biotechnology Industry Organization's 14th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference, Feb-14-2012 10:30 AM. I believe they want to time it with the announcement of the Bio-t-gel. This way if approved(which may have already happened) I don't know if there is lag time between the formal approval and when the PDUFA makes their announcement. I had read that usually the company gets a letter of approval for their timely disclosure before the FDA makes the formal announcement(don't know if this is factual).
Ceregene (privately owned company) was once part of Cell Genesys which Biosante bought out in 2009 and by process of elimination the product that makes the most sense to purchase would be Ceregene's CRE 120 used to combat Parkinson Disease. It has completed Phase 2 trials and would be ready to go straight to phase III possibly with the support of the Michael J. Fox foundation.
Note: Simes sits on Ceregene's board of directors.
CRE 120 trial
Realize that this is just conjecture. The announcement of Bio-t-Gel approval followed by the phase 3 trial for Parkinson would give a big pop.
Now on Sale Biosante up to 75 % of Retail Market Price. Hurry these prices won`t last!
The following will show you companies selling for far above BPAX with a fraction their pipeline diversity or proven ability to get FDA approval.
Sangamo Bioscience - has 1 Phase II and two Phase I/II clinical Market Cap = $222.48 mllion
Amicus Therapeutics - has 1 phase III and 1 phase II trials Market Cap = $232.18 million
Corcept Therapeutics - 1 awaiting PUDFA, one phase II trial Market Cap= $232.48 million
Cadence pharmaceuticals - has one approved drug and nothing in the pipeline that I can see. Market Cap= $256.37 million
Geron Corp. has 6 phase II trials. Market Cap =$262.29 million
Arena Pharmaceuticals has 1 product FDA issued CRL October 2010, 1 phase II Market Cap =$283.29 million
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals has one product just approved , and 2 phase III trials Market cap = $ 304.35 million
MannKind Corp. has 1 phase III trial Market Cap = $306.02 million
Chelsea therapeutics has 1 phase III trial and 4 phase II trials market cap = $308.62 million
Anthera pharmaceuticals has 1 phase III and 2 phase II trials Market Cap $318.26 million
Progenics Pharmaceuticals has 1 approved product, 1 FDA approval, 1 phase III trial and 1 phase II trial Market Cap = $321.08 million
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals – Has 1 phase III trial Market cap = $349.94 million
Oncotheryion has 1 phase III and 4 phase II trials Market Cap = $358.53 million
Ziopharm oncology 5 phase II trials Market Cap = $361.42 million
Oncolytics has 1 phase III trial and 9 phase II trials of Market Cap = $365.45 million (very similar to the BPAX cancer program)
Raptor Pharmaceuticals has 1 phase III and 3 phase II trials Market Cap = $372.16 million
Now look at Biosante
Biosante = Has 1 approved product , 1PUDFA decision this week, I in late stage phase 3 trials , 1 product in stage 2/3 trials, 3 phase 2 cancer trials awaiting money or partners to go to Phase 3 trials, Through the university a phase 2 trial being conducted in conjunction with the partner’s product. And 4 designated orphan drugs. In addition 16 % stake a company with 1 phase 2 cancer trial and a 19 % stake in another company with 2 phase 2 trials. Market Cap = $93.62 million
Now what do you think BPAX is worth?
Yes and no. The bad press doesn't attract the uneducated investor. What probably has the biggest impact on share value not being realized is that many do not understand how good the BPAX cancer program really is. Libigel, Bio-t-Gel Elestrin, The Pill Plus are small potatoes to the real prize.
What I find interesting is the Price/Earnings ratio where BPAX is above the industry average by 272%. I attribute that to many companies doing cancer research having large expenses. If you look at what the Market Cap is on most companies doing strictly cancer research, they are trading at a much greater market value then BPAX. These companies for the most part have no diversity and are relying on one or two products in clinical trials, many in phase II. This proves to me that Cancer vaccine has not been priced into the market(yet).
This is where many are underestimating the business savy of BPAX Management. By getting 4 products Orphan Drug designation it opened the door to research opportunities at a lesser cost. This enhanced the work with John Hopkins University who is helping find partners and attracted additional funding. They have out-licenced to the university who will partner with other companies who want to try the GVAX in combination with one of their drugs. This is newest way to treat cancers. There are 17 cancer products presently in the BPAX pipeline using this process I see this number growing very quickly. It is like preparing a meal you have to try out different ingredients to see what works. BPAX will never have the cure for cancer treatment by itself. But no one else will either. But BPAX is poised to be an ingredient in many cancer cures. I believe the Lancet will be doing many more articles on GVAX as it is tried in different combinations. When these treatments are approved GVAX has a 30 % royalty established through the agreement with the university.
Bottom line, BPAX is able to move forward cancer research and eventually share in the spoils, while minimizing their expenses. This in addition to the fact that GVAX can be mass produced will translate into larger profits over the other cancer treatment products once approvals start coming in.
A few items to help you assess BPAX true value.
Price/ Earnings Ratio
BPAX Price/ Earnings Ratio = -1.54
Industry Average Price/ Earnings Ratio = -4.20
BPAX has a Price/ Earnings Ratio that is 272.73 % above industry average.
Earnings Growth
BPAX 2011 Earnings growth = 16.43%
Industry Average 2011 Earnings growth = 9.20%
BPAX has a 2011 Earnings growth that is 78.57 % above industry average
Market Cap
The average Market Cap of the industry = $3.108 Billion
BPAX Market Cap = $93 million
BPAX Market Cap is at 3,342 % below the industry average
The Lancet is the world's leading general medical journal and specialty journals in Oncology, Neurology and Infectious Diseases. Has increased it's coverage of GVAX quite a bit. This should help give the cancer program street credibility and attract more longs.
GVAX
I agree, if Greece stabilizes then it bodes well for all markets. However, Greece has been anything but predictable. Then there is Spain.
And the only one who can honestly say they did their due diligence on BPAX. Mind you if a person is covering many stocks it may be difficult to do the digging so they skim the top for information and make their assessment.
Slight correction Libigel did get submitted for approval it is still in the trials. They will be meeting with the FDA for guidance on how to proceed.
It is for hypogonadism for which there are 5 million + sufferers (viagra etc... is not the competition and wouldn't work). There are a few competitors but they either involve needles or topical gels - topical gels transfer testosterone to you female partner. Bio-t-gel doesn't. Where did you get $1 million from?
I prefer more accurate math Bio-t-gel has much greater revenue projections then you estimate. Common $1 million that workout $10 - $15 for Teva. I have linked a more realistic projection.
Bio-t-gel
And this only for the US. Biosante still owns the rights to the rest of the world. Teva is in over 60 countries. I see another agreement with Teva for the rest of the world down the road once Bio-t-gel marketing in the US is established.
Saw it before, but thanks and good for the newbies to see.
The dollar value you are referring is the Market cap = number of shares x Stock quote = Share price mean nothing other then under a buck for de-listing. Market Cap tells you what the company is assessed at on that day. Share price was around $0.53 cents on the previous post. It was liken to a dated document from January. (97 million was today's Market cap)
Comparisons don't matter for day traders because they have a short time frame High risk - high rewards philosophy. But for the uneducated trader and a potential long investor- comparisons do matter.
Even a trader may pause if they actually looked at the stock they had in their hands at this low price and did a little due diligence.
Since Biosante is not starving for cash anyone wanting to buy the company would probably have to fork over $1 Billion = $9 / share and that is before Libigel is approve. They have to go on the assumption it will get approved if they wait after approval the price will be higher.
Too big a gamble for the shorts to ride it out. Safety is not an issue since there are other similar products on the market. What benefit is there? Transdermal (AIS) technology is more advanced no needles, no topical gel which can be absorbed by the partner. This is why there is such a strong belief it will get approved. Playing the devil's advocate. There may be a slight pull back if not approved but BPAX is still grossly undervalued that the price will continue to climb, it just might take a little longer.
If you are concerned look at what other company's are trading at and look at their pipeline. I put it together for those new to BPAX and to show the fire the shorts are playing with.
BPAX Value Assessment
I thinks this may come out of the Feb 14th. We will probably get an up to date Market Data Overview presentation, similar to the Jan 2011 on their website. I have been checking to see if they have updated it (not yet). Biosante has a busy month I expect little nuggets at each event as more info comes available.
BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Presents at Biotechnology Industry Organization's 14th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference, Feb-14-2012 10:30 AM
BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Presents at Citi Global Healthcare Conference 2012, Feb-27-2012 03:30 PM
BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Presents at 24th Annual OC Growth Stock Conference, Mar-11-2012
BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. expected to report Fiscal Year 2011 results on March 15, 2012. This event was calculated by Capital IQ (Created on July 28, 2011).
I forgot to add that most of these companies have never taken a product through FDA approval.
18 reasons why BPAX should be trading between $3 to $4 even without Bio-t-gel or Libigel
I have made this easy for anyone who wants to compare product pipelines I have also included the company's Market Cap. If Bio-t-Gel is approved and the information below sinks in you are looking at a $4 to $5 share price on February 14th.
Biosante Product Pipeline $98.47 million
Overview
Cancer Vaccine
Other companies with Annual revenue less then $10. million and a negative Net Annual Income
Novavax $162.11 million
Cell Therapeutics $212. million
Keryx $234.38 million
Amicus Therapeutics $234.96 million
Corcept $259.43 million
Cadence pharma $268.46 million
YM bioscience $278.94 million
Chelsea Therapeutics $308.00 million
MannKind $316.53 million
Anthera $323.17 million
Progenics $337.29 million
Oncothyreon $341.89 million
Aegerion $356.93 million
Ziopharm $364.16 milliom
Oncolytics Biotech $366.89 million
Raptor Pharma $370.72 million
Avanir $401.38 million
Map Pharma $472.40 million