Shortly after BPAX released the efficacy results in December, I believe analysts such as Leerink Swann (AF's source of info) pegged 1 year target at $0.70 . The 1 year target is an estimate that the stock will reach that price sometime in the next year. Now, let me see how far off was their projection, it has already reached $1.17 during regular trading hours approximately 2 months into the year. A proper analysis will at least be close.
Now are you really concerned about what Leerink Swann guesses for a valuation.
On the other hand other more serious analyst peg the 1 year target at $3.00. Clarity on the Libigel meetings with FDA and if they go as expected consider the following:
Libigel elevated the number of satisfying sexual events (subjective)
Libigel performed better then Intrinsa by a wide margin.(objective)
Testoterone levels were raised to pre-menopausal levels (objective)
(Testosterone provide a list of other health benefits including reducing oteoporosis)
Reduction of cardiovascular events for at risk women. (Objective)
The placebo did far better then the placebo used by Intrinsa, had they used the same placebo Libigel would be cruising towards approval. As result the Placebo matched the increase in satisfying sexual events. Two issues arise 1) why did the Placebo do so well and 2)This is the only subjective test. From a purely scientific standpoint it is the weakest part of the trials for overall reliability.
How many doctor would prescribe placebo over Libigel?
Remember, before the efficacy results were released Most analyst had including Leerwink Swann had a 1 year target of $6 some as high as $8 for BPAX and the CV Benefit had not been factored into their estimates.
I expect the target price to jump above $6 (how much I don't know) if the FDA meetings go favorably.
AI
