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eammonshute
Looks to me like they skipped Friday.
Closing price on Thursday was 1.94
If they are showing Monday pre-market of 1.78 then...
-.16= 1.94-1.78
awk, your Caisse d'ensemble...impressive DD! e/
Doma
Something else good about ETS middleware for applications like Caisse d'Epargne's ID-TRONIC is that it will be interoperable across all brands of TPMs. Won't matter whether the trusted PC has an Infineon, Atmel or NSM TPM, they will all work for any ETS application.
Re: NSM SafeKeeper TPM released/shipping
I think the NSM SafeKeeper has been released to PC OEMs per what NSM e-mailed me. It's a question of the OEMs implementing it. I think it will be the OEM that announces their product(s) using the SafeKeeper not NSM announcing it. NSM announcing it would be akin to Wave announcing on the their customers' products. I believe that SafeKeeper is available to OEMs (available to ship to OEMs if you prefer), but OEM products using the SafeKeeper are not released, or even previewed yet.
Nice Wildman! e/
Larry Dudash
Unfortunately:
1. Just because Intel has shipped to OEMs does not necessarily mean Wave will be able to book revenues from Intel Q4. I believe Intel has to report the quantities to Wave...eg. might not be until Q1 that quantities now shipping are reported. I don't know how that works.
2. It's entirely up to Intel to PR their shipments with specifics as to quantities and customers. It's known that the D865GRH is, initially at least, intended for the whitebox market. Wave simply can't PR their customers' products in advance of the customer doing so, or until such time that Wave is authorized by a customer to discuss their products.
weets, thanks for that! e/
Doma/LD
I thought we had already established that Intel was shipping to OEMs in advance of retail. I can't recall the sources on that, but that's very normal for a product like this, when it's understood that it's enterprise-specific and not really for the consumer yet. I would expect a tight supply to the retail market for some time to come.
Snackman, better to err on the conservative side, but 10M TPMs by the end of 2004?...that's a slam dunk! IBM recently reported 6M so far and remember the IBM guy in some article that estimated 8M IBM by the end of 2003...that's all just Atmel. There's Infineon and NSM as well. And looks like Dell will begin with 1.2's due sometime in 2004.
No, 10M TPMs by the end of 2004 is low...way low.
dj, thanks for the e-mail. e/
DWG, amazing breadth! Thanks. e/
N4, thanks for sharing. e/
toro, thanks for the report. e/
bbigtim, thanks for your post. It elucidates on several points.
I did know that the PP price was likely calculated on a moving average prior to the placement closing. I don't know why I would think anyone would be saying the price is still not fixed after the deal had closed.
In any case, at least the price is above where we are now trading...that makes me feel better.
Rachelelise
But I thought you are saying that the price will not be 1.90, instead the moving average is still in effect, and that is why the finaciers keep trading the price down. I think the financiers did short naked before the deal was announced and the lower the price goes the better they do on the short position. They cover by buying and ALSO pick up there 1.90 shares on the way back up. They get the best of both.
I am sorry if I misunderstood you. You would agree that the price is 1.90 per the PR?
greg s
I do believe Wave always seeks to minimize dilution. Yes, we did take a hit @.76 and now at what we were told is 1.90, but there have been very very good PPs also, like the one at more than $30.
My point is, if Wave is to sell another 5M shares which is what this most recent one is including warrants, what advantage if an Intel is the investor? I doubt a giant like Intel cares about a stake like that and in the absence of guaranteed business that a strategic partner's investment usually brings, why would Wave care? I don't think business guarantees from a strategic partner is an issue at this early stage...Wave has no real competitors.
No, I think Wave seeks to sell as little equity as possible here, and there is no advantage to creating a strategic partner for that purpose.
If we don't get 1.90 I am going to complain to Wave about the release stating 1.90!...it says 1.90 and warrants @2.62
I don't care about the historical way it happens, it clearly says 1.90.
That makes my blood boil!
rachelelise, why would the deal be based on a moving average if the release states 1.90?
http://www.wave.com/news/press_archive/03/031119WAVX.html
Doma,
No doubt that Wave with their Embassy Trust Server is in the driver's seat to provide unique Trusted Third Party services...question is what 1.1b TPMs, including Infineon's, are currently being manufactured with the EKs loaded? I think the specs are there.
awk re: endorsement key loading
We know that Wave provides EK loading server technology to some 1.1b TPMs. I am guessing that NSM is one of them. NSM, more than the others, has been in bed with Wave all along, using some Wave IP in the SafeKeeper.
You are probably right that 1.2 will see the EK loading issue fully addressed by all TPM vendors...until then this feature may be lacking in many TPMs.
rachelelise
With respect to "wiping the machine clean", ETS comes on a CD and it's up to the installer to load it anyways, right? Apparently you are saying that when we speculate about the possibility of HP or IBM bundling ETS that would mean them loading ETS on the hard drive. But would it? Intel ships ETS on a CD with other Intel-provided software, bundled in the package. I assume the NSM SafeKeeper is the same method. If HP or IBM wanted to bundle ETS, which I don't think they want to do at this point (especially IBM), why not ship an ETS CD with their product?
Dell will probably have their own TPM software also.
I think I am getting the picture. HP, IBM and Dell (probably in the works) ship their machines with their own TPM software loaded, and many enterprise customers will simply wipe it off. This is where Wave marketing through the VAR channels comes in.
But if ETS helps drive TPM deployment, an unknown at this point, perhaps the giant OEMs will see the advantage to shipping ETS, off the hard drive.
And of course the ultimate calling card for Wave would be to see ETS built into the OS.
Doma, I might add something I am sure you already know...
Wave is recognized as a TPM independendent software vendor by both HP and IBM, with a link from HP to ETS already in place and a link from IBM to ETS expected soon.
ETS is interoperable across all TPM-supported platforms while HP and IBM TPM software is not. We know that Wave is marketing ETS to IBM and HP users. With sufficient traction in the deployment of TPMs and acceptance of ETS it's always possible that HP and IBM will both want to see ETS provided in their systems as a standard...of course a bundling of ETS with Windows would help in that regard.
Thank Wildman
Not enough TPMs deployed and concurrently not enough ETS?
We know basic client ETS is more robust than IBM and HP TPM software, and of paramount importance it's interoperable across all TPM-supported platforms (that would be a Windows requirement), but the simple fact is ETS and TPMs not yet widely enough deployed.
Finallythere
Integrated into the MSFT Office environmemt, but not yet bundled with Windows!
btw, your shorting by the PP holders, and their covering without the PP shares scenario is highly plausible. Thanks for the enlightenment.
Wildman
Why not MSFT bundle ETS today for Windows XP?
If it makes any of the longs feel any better, you can now buy shares for less than the PP. I'd rather that than to have these prices with no financing.
OT
Comdex is hugely down-sized this year, on a steady decline since 2001.
Comdex was sold by now Venetian Hotel owner Sheldon Adelson to a Japanese consortium for $900M in 1995, and Adelson has been successful in his gaming enterprises. Adelson is obviously a highly gifted entrepeneur, and living here in Vegas I happen to know he is well-liked by his employees, often not the case in the gaming industry.
The IT tradeshow business needs this guy.
http://www.expoweb.com/Headlines/Story.cfm?ID=835
I predict that trusted computing revives the industry!
RWK
I know...guess I am "going for it" by assuming the price will warrant them being exercised! I think it will happen!
RWK, w/ warrants it's $10M! e/
SPIN, w/ warrants, it's $10M. e/
If all my previous calculations were correct for the Series H placement w/ warrants and the Redwave shares, today's round will bring the total w/warrants to about 71M total shares outstanding. We can expect that total to increase as employee options are exercised.
Alright cpa, you know more than most about the particulars of Wave's situation. If you had an opportunity to participate in this offering what would you have paid?
Please don't think that's a rhetorical question.
Consider Wave's financial predictament.
Lucky re: Wave and IBM deployment of TPMs
Wave is marketing ETS to IBM users. The deployment of IBM TPM PCs does not necessarily indicate Wave's revenues at this point. I believe SKS when he says that Wave is not at liberty to discuss the customers of Wave's partners or Wave's partners' products with respect to Wave's end of the business.
Things will begin to loosen up when TCG companies make their own announcements and Wave begins booking revenues...and also when Wave feels they have a good foothold in the market. I think even if Wave went and did PRs about everything they do they would not risk losing their first-mover advanatage to competitors, but the fact is it's still too early to announce the after-market services. Embassy Trust Server services are currently in beta trials, and once certified it will still take time to assess market adoption rates.
Wildman262
I might speculate that the NEC/Wave relationship does not exactly hurt when it comes to NEC deploying TPMs, in Europe and anywhere else including Japan!. After all, a lot of what NEC and Wave have done together on the Secure PC in Europe has been successfully ported to the TCG platform by Wave. NEC has gotta be a believer in ETS!
Wildman, very sensible/logical! e/
dhamster, thanks for the effort. e/
SPIN
You didn't answer my question about how much would you pay in a PP at this point.
As far as the bridge loan, Feeney et al weren't born yesterday. There must be some reason that debt financing is not better than equity...tough spot right now.
I do think that Wave has budgeted more going forward than a total liquidation of SSPX at current prices would have provided. I can only hope that Wave is bullish on SSPX which will improve the fiscal picture a few months from now.
SPIN
1. How would you have gone about getting a better placement price if you were Wave management. Based on what you know about Wave's situation, which is a lot more than the average joe, what price do you think savvy PP investors could have been squeezed for. Looks like 1.90 was the best Wave could get when the trading price was much higher. How high would you have gone?
2. What about today's announcement of the SSP placement? Don't you consider that bullish for SSPX? My hope (of course) is that Wave is privy to SSP's situation and is holding for SSPX appreciation.
bluefang, I disagree with your take.
1. Probably didn't do an earlier placement at recent higher prices because it was previously not feasible to provide sufficient guidance to the investors. IMO, NDAs are involved here and it's more complicated than we can imagine.
2. I believe there is plenty more where this came from and the next, if needed, will be at a higher price. IMO the size of this placement reflects management's desire to minimize dilution, not a lack of investor interest.
go-ks
Unfortunately, the product was only announced last week so we won't know for a couple months, probably.
You mean the ETS client/server Caisse d'Epargne application?
I was wondering myself about the revenue model for a consumer banking service like that. I assume a modest per seat fee for the consumer and/or something from the bank which is passed along to the consumer.
I think the Caisse d'Epargne application is a good example of ETS's advantage of being interoperable across all TPMs. This should mean that any TPM platform will see the advantage of having ETS in the box so that the final customer in the supply chain, the end user, will have easy access to Wave's ETS Premium Services.