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Screen of the Day...
I just want to mention I like all of the Screen of the Day runs that IBD has scheduled for this week. All important metrics to follow - and important to study these names further.
GL & GT.
Thanks for the reply Fishsurfer...
I just liked their CC (except for the forecast) and that this is really the forefront of the backbone internet and telecom industries right now (and cable and media), this convergence, so I read alot last night too - there is a lot of technical info on the internet on this. It's an exciting space right now with everything going on with all the providers and all players, and this is an issue they all must address and incorporate.
Sometimes (like this) I think it's worth the time to really investigate a space like this, just 'cause there is so much money and work behind it and involved around the world. Whereas oftentimes it's easier and makes more sense just to let the sector and stock action tell you what's really happening behind the scenes, in something like this - a convergence and possible shift in critical communications, any knowledge you gain can also payoff in other related plays.
Glad you got a gain out of it, and were cautious on MRVL.
GL & GT.
Thanks for the link lady1242...
that's just where I wanted to start. It sounds like perhaps you got some shares in the primary, congrats if you did.
I agree about the current uptrend, I bought a little yesterday based on the technical action.
But, I'm running short on time today, so for anybody else trying to get up to speed on this like I am, do you or Fishsurfer know more background on the industry? I'm curious not only about their direct competitors in SBC's but also about Sonus' Network Border Switch.
Is CSCO already chasing and/or partnering or working with any of the smaller companies in the space whom may also already be in with any other providers? Thx.
GL & GT.
Still thinking about this...
They talked a little about competition in the coming year during the CC - JNPR mainly. But, you've got to think about CSCO with their inroads already into the same customers APKT is looking at.
Time to start digging.
I think so too...
regarding the Cramer effect. Let's see if he does do a segment on this. It would be interesting to hear his take on this.
I just listened to the archived CC, and the Q&A session was very informative. 275 existing customers, 50 new customers (look at who their customers are), 80% gross margins (and they explained their hardware platform and then the varying level of software content/licensing they add which is the key margin driver), 54% North America and 46% International sales (and where they expect that metric to go) - I like that they mentioned they expect to be with all North American cable companies eventually - and the robust cable market right now forcing change in the industry (think VZ, T, fiber rollouts), 50/50 constant split of access and peering aspects of their business over the years. How about the numbers: 229% revenue growth, accelerating earnings and revenue, etc.
Also revealing is their comment on one new customer just announced - British Telecom. How they worked for 3 years with them understanding their network etc. before they became a commercial paying customer (and probably only in Phase 2 currently). And how this leads to their long-term critical roles with these providers.
Their phasing with customers, and particularly the example with Sprint, where they are doing a broadbase rollout but only on one segment line.
Their explanation that SBC is really needed in packet loss, latency, and jitter sensitive data streams - which is voice & video, but doesn't really matter to them what infrastructure access it's from - wire, cell, WiMAX, Wi-Fi.
Lots more.
Time to do some more research into APKT, especially why 2007 forecast is what it is. Hmmmm, something doesn't add up there, at least not after this first glance. GL.
Fishsurfer - good luck in MRVL too.
About that pop on Tuesday...
Cramer wrote about the impetus of that afternoon pop in his piece "Bullish Sign From Tuesday's Market Move" on 11/15/06 at 7:32 am. $500 M leveraged through futures and futures options rushing in from a big fund.
He didn't talk about the short covering and panic buying that resulted because of it as the stops above resistance were taken out. But, that's what I did, after booking some profits Monday and Tuesday a.m. selling some calls that were racking up big gains, I ended up buying almost an equal amount back of some new names Tuesday after the pop - cause you can't be out right now, not after that pop.
He also wrote more about the move in another piece or commentary, but, I can't find it now. I'd recommend trying to find it.
Other good pieces this last week include "No Reason to Stay Public" about how inefficient this market is pricing many stocks right now, stocks deemed "uninvestible" and/or just underpriced due to lack of sponsorship.
There have been several pieces on overall lack of supply - important messages that are right on target.
And my favorite of the week (so far), and a classic, and why I enjoy reading his commentary so much, his piece "Guilty as Charged on MasterCard".
Thanks Cramer.
I hope TSCM recovers for you. You deserve a better price on your shares for all you do.
Cramer mentioned this briefly last night...
I don't think too many people heard, but, he mentioned this while discussing another stock and said to one of his producers on the set that they have to do a piece about APKT quick, this week, he seemed to be getting very excited about it.
Good chart move today.
Leading markets...
As noted previously regarding which market has most relevance on the distribution day count, it was the Dow and S&P since this rally began off the lows from mid-summer. Money was going to a lot of bigger issues and some more defensive names when there was still concern about a possible 4-yr cycle, etc.
More recent action including the Nasdaq's (and Russell's) surge yesterday, has been saying these concerns are over. If you have already, or are now piling into tech and/or smaller names, then the Nasdaq is the one to start monitoring first as it now has more relevance (which now is back at 3-dist day count).
And how about those semi's.
GL & GT.
Get ready for NMX.
It's a BULL market...
And I like what I hear and read - i.e. doubters, defensive positions, etc. And a few people still thinking about a 4-yr cycle low/correction.
Also too bad it popped late today; would've been nice to stay under the radar a little longer with a break-even market day, even though under the surface it is anything but for a bunch of leading stocks. But, will take this ride however it goes.
Hey D, I saw a great article...
on a tamper-proof electronic "voting" machine already in place, across California, and others like it across the country - it's called the lottery.
Sorry, I don't have the editorial article handy, but, basically, it noted that there are far more lottery locations than polling places, that the lottery computers record millions of individual votes (picks) per week, you get a receipt of all your votes, and all voter information is recorded - i.e. immediately after a super-lotto number is posted, it is known what state and store the winning ticket was purchased from as well as time and date it was issued, etc.
And as the article pointed out, with millions of dollars at stake, there have not been incidences of computer problems, electronic or other data tampering, and/or other related system fraud.
If a lottery-like system was in place for voting, you could also see real-time all of the races across the country, including absentee ballots, etc.
And a personal note - the lottery machines are a heckuva lot easier and quicker to use than the voting machines around here. And I was thinking - what about a quick-pick party button (for Dems, Republicans, Independents) for when you don't really know too many of the individual candidates on all the races.
It's a bull market...
EOM.
A new market phase...
Since last Friday's action and especially the last several days, it appears the steady up-trending market has changed and a new volatile market phase has begun.
Many of the leaders (esp. in the small and mid caps) as well as other names have gotten shot, breakouts and other moves heavily sold, and with another "official" distribution day added to the count, now at 4 for the Nasdaq, caution must be raised. Note: more recent selling has been seen other than the "official" count.
As the VIX starts to climb, I am doing some further trimming, but, still monitoring the markets & positions and holding my core long positions.
Afterall, it's still a bull market, just a more volatile one for now. Action will dictate if it is an intermediate top or if there are some more gifts out there around this end of fiscal year for funds. However, at least I'm no longer complacent by any measure - a positive.
So, watch the action, and if another distribution day starts to form in the Nasdaq before next Wednesday, then it would be time to protect recent gains and raise cash and/or hedge your positions.
One caveat, is that with the recent better performance and relative strength of the Dow and S&P over the past 4 or 5 months, is that the distribution day count on the S&P has more relevance than the Nasdaq, so at a 3-distribution-day-mark for the S&P currently, there is a little more breathing room depending on your actual holdings and comfort level.
Again, this is just another way for monitoring the general markets; individual charts and targets trump over this if sell signals are indicated.
Third Quarter results...
Will have to spend more time today looking through all of the numbers and data and listen to the call, but, offhand this morning, this looks like another long term gift at first glance. But, the percent drop and slicing through the 50 sma/ema is a warning.
The only segment with problems it first appears is aviation, due to the delay of the WAAS and overall segment margins, but, will have to go through all of this too (but, first glance says next year will just be greater here).
Also, new products and the dividend and bonus program warrants further review.
GL & GT.
http://www.garmin.com/aboutGarmin/invRelations/releases/Q3_2006EarningsPressRelease.pdf
Here's the headline and the data...
Headline: "Construction Spending Falls in September"
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061101/economy.html?.v=4 A fear piece on residential construction (which is about the only segment that did decline). There are also a couple of mis-prints and/or typos on the data stats.
Dept of Commerce data: Construction spending amounted to $903.2 B for the first 9 month, up 6.6% from the 847.1 B reported one year ago - Sept 2005 YTD (or +2.9% seasonally adjusted).
http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf
Again, big percentage gains in every non-residential category except one from a year ago (see Table 1 & 2).
Do your own DD, but, my headline for this report would read Construction Spending Rises in September, based on the numbers.
Gifts...
i.e. GOOG yesterday at 470.
If the market gets a little soft this next week, I'm looking for more gifts like that.
Markets with Capital "M"...
I wanted to start with the Dow, but, first, look at the Nasdaq yesterday. Busted through that recent pivot and resistance on huge volume - it's off to the races. Oh, same with the Russell after that little handle. People have been worried that the Dow has been leading this market, and about volume, etc., I think things are changing.
But, OK, back to the Dow - YM indicators on all time frames point up.
How about the components - AA about to break that trendline, AIG move yesterday, AXP see 9/25 and 9/26 - it's already left and look at that monthly chart, BA - looks like another gift to me, C look at the monthly chart saucer base, CAT - see my first posts on IH re: commercial construction ramping up - what a gift last Friday was, at least it was for me (for a trade), DIS - here it goes, HPQ started back in August, some other recent moves on volume - look at IBM, JNJ, KO, WMT, and don't forget MMM.
What about T, man, do I like T. And now watch Mr Softee and Intel add to the move.
Last - "everybody", again I mention "everybody", is talking about and looking for a significant pullback in these extended markets and telling everybody else that once this happens (after elections or this or that) to load up, back up the truck, buy! buy! buy! at certain lower price levels. With everybody talking this way, it is not likely going happen that way. Probably again just the opposite, anybody waiting for a big pullback now to load up on (cause it can't go higher) is likely going to feel more pain later of paying up much higher to get in.
You don't need to chase extended issues, one option is you can keep your eyes open for more "gifts" after doing your DD, and/or better, just look at your charts, many names are still within 5% of proper buy points. What's not to like? And I haven't even mentioned some smaller Nasdaq names.
You don't need to get reckless or euphoric to get in on some good moves still - you just need to watch price & volume, monitor the markets, and follow your rules.
Good luck, good trading, and have a good weekend.
First Message...
GL & GT
Just so anybody knows...
I'm not much of an investor in this one, just because I've loaded up on my other holdings.
How much am I not really following this one, well, I had to check tonight to see when their earnings call is - turns out this Thursday.
That said, besides some other points I previously mentioned, I forgot to mention Cramer's new book which is due out soon, and actually found this link tonight also. http://www.nbcuniversalstore.com/detail.php?p=11482&SESSID=06b2a1333b9566fb6e9af0a1571a7a91
The book is something else to help next year's subscriptions. Along with the free college Real Money subscriptions they are handing out now - I think until May is a little long, but, maybe it pays off.
See what this market does tomorrow afternoon, otherwise, Thursday might be the catalyst for this.
Options - better pricing...
Interactive Brokers today started offering their customers penny-increment pricing on option limit orders on certain issues listed through the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Boston options exchange (BOX).
There are limitations currently with this and the NBBO (National Best Bid or Offer) and who actually sees your inside increment order. And some people are critical on some issues that the BOX (which was set up as a joint venture with IB) also gives brokerage firms the ability to take the other side of a customer's order through their "price-improvement period" (PIP). There is lots to consider and read on this issue.
But, overall, I believe it is another step in the right direction for greater options liquidity as more and more people trade options based on electronic platform exchanges and more exchanges will have to compete with better pricing. Ultimately leading to more transparent and increased options liquidity that also follows stock decimalization. And as a side, actually better stock liquidity for issues with high corresponding liquid options; based on related program trading as well as market maker and fund hedging. Case in point - GOOG.
More background info on the electronic exchanges working with IB: http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/article.asp?id=9755
Price Improvement - see links: http://bostonoptions.com/
You put up some nice work Wonderbuy....
On the board and all your Market Updates. I think your board & info is helpful without a whole lot of traffic. I imagine you have more people looking than post here.
Good trading.
Think which stocks funds now must own...
And go buy some more yourself, as the buying pressure for the most popular names of this market is just going to increase over the next 4 to 6 weeks.
Check sponsorship on IBD's Daily Graphs / Fund Center.
And check and follow holdings and buys of the hottest funds too.
GL & GT.
Watching the TSCM tape...
this morning, and here it looks like it might be getting ready to go.
Watch that pivot point and volume if it crosses.
Watching the TSCM tape...
this morning, and here it looks like it might be getting ready to go.
Watch that pivot point and volume if it crosses.
Hey Kristofer...
I bought some more down there yesterday with you, and sitting on my GRMN calls.
Good luck & good trading.
Maybe people are just buying calls...
Because it looks good here - the market, IV, etc. There still might be some risk here (I don't like the P&F chart) and this is not a main position for me, but, I was buying some calls and LEAPS the past week or so, not much, but a little to throw on top of the truck.
Ran some P&F charts...
and doesn't look so good for TSCM.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=tscm,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Do your DD, I've only got a small position in this like I mentioned, cause I still think it goes with the rest of the sector.
Long and Strong...
The big gains are made sitting on good positions of great stocks, and that's what I'm planning on doing unless something really changes.
Besides sitting, I am selling some calls along the way at pre-defined levels, i.e. some ROG calls today.
If any newer investors do read here, you need to use extreme caution whenever on margin. I have the luxury of watching my positions all day and can place hedges as I see fit. If you have less than a year or two experience, I would suggest take it easy on margin - your main goal is to preserve captial and stay in the game long enough to get experience. Most professionals' attitude is to protect capital, while most amateurs is to double their money on the next trade. Not realistic.
Good luck and good trading.
Today's action...
And, I really like the daily and the weekly charts. Do your DD on this one, before any action.
GL & GT.
Whew! Just made it on that train...
This is a rare and/or special occasion - what have I been thinking? And I'm seeing beautiful charts, and even the not beautiful charts are even more so to me cause it's throwing more people off.
All in. Right here.
Another good day for the market...
and many stocks. I did do some trimming today, mainly SBUX, and now after seeing Schultz on Cramer's show, am hoping I get a chance to buy it back at a reasonable price.
It was a rebound play, from around 32 so it wasn't large, but, man is it strong too - like other big cap growth issues.
This market will need a rest, but, I still see and want to buy much more than I can right now. And I imagine other people do too.
Man, may have to move to a shorter timeframe and try to pick up more of these type of moves setting up.
Good luck all.
Syn, you guys have a great board...
with great discussions from all sides.
I enjoy checking in here often and seeing what's going on.
GL and GT.
Keith, yes the SOX should eventually do well...
for this market to keep going. But, you also should consider that some of the market leaders are chip stocks not in the SOX index. Names like HITT, DIOD, STEC, ATYT, and a bunch of others ready to breakout right now.
The IBD semi manufacturing industry sector has 146 issues, many acting like above.
Many of the SOX issues have not been acting like above: http://www.phlx.com/products/sectors/soxcomp.htm
But, they are coming around too. I think you'll get your confirmation soon enough.
Randy, I believe in great management too...
and I think that is a key.
Thanks for the link to the WFMI's John Mackey's blog - I liked the idea behind his speech here: http://www.wholefoods.com/blogs/jm/archives/2006/05/the_upward_flow.html although it got a little long and technical.
I like this page of quotes better: http://www.woopidoo.com/business_quotes/authors/john-mackey/index.htm
Yes, there are great management teams at many U.S. companies: GOOG, SBUX, WFMI, etc. Also, in other countries that do business around the world and here too like: CAJ, HMC, etc.
And other companies that change the world like MSFT just through their products and work. Not to mention many CEO's like Gates, Buffet, Branson, Turner, etc. all philanthropists doing great work outside of their business. Add to that other great people on the boards of many fine companies - Al Gore comes to mind with all his recent exposure.
Yea, there are inventory problems and industry issues, but, I agree if you are implying at least a good portion of the stock performance problems comes from the options backdating and expensing issues.
Thoughts on the market...
Lots to comment on, but, busy with our upcoming move.
So, quickly, the 9/6 and 9/7 distribution days fall off the radar at the close tomorrow giving the general market more breathing room on the next pullback.
I've loaded up on calls the past two weeks and today got into a little margin. This knowing I do have more trimming to do of pilot and smaller positions and will be selling those into any strength the next couple of days to get back off margin.
Even though I think this is just the beginning of a huge bull run, margin is reserved for only truely special and/or rare occasions/setups and sometimes bottoms(harder to do). And I sure missed the bottom opportunity this summer worrying about the 4-yr cycle, so not planning on using much here right now.
Preservation of capital is still rule #1.
If I see some beautiful chart in the coming month, and it warrants redistributing my funds I may put some margin to use then - only on the perfect setup(s). Even then still have to be cautious.
I thought I'd look here today....
Almost a year ago, after watching Mad Money every once in awhile, and seeing all of the free publicity it was generating for the site, I started loading up on stock right around $4.15 to 4.20 at the end of that tight little base. I sold a bunch for a double and then sold the rest between $10 and $11.
With the market finally going here, and especially with all of Cramer's recent good calls, interest is going to rise again for TSCM subscriptions. Lots of new investors will be coming into the market in the coming year.
Also, with GOOG and KNOT starting to go that will help the sector too.
So time to buy some of this again. Not much, as I have fully loaded up the past 3 or 4 weeks on my core holds - but, just enough to make some Mad Money.
Dow high - More skepticism...
and many people remain unimpressed and cautious regardless of the Dow. Maybe even more so because it's not the Nasdaq making the news headlines.
I like it.
This was probably one of the few ways for the market to proceed to higher levels while leaving the crowd behind - a very unimpressive turn last summer in the markets, low volume much of the way since, as well as some other items (stealth action) mentioned in the past.
Hopefully, it stays this way for as long as possible with more "bad" news in the coming weeks keeping the crowd untrusting.
Hopefully too, the SOX stays stuck or heads down awhile longer (like more MRVL-type or options backdating news) even though some of the other lessor known semi related companies outside of the index quietly do just fine. Same sort of thing with the transport index - hope it dances around it's 200 ma as long as possible before plowing ahead like the SPX did two months ago.
And hopefully more media attention on maybe housing prices starting to "collapse" to levels not seen since, er, well, 2005.
I mention some of the popular websites...
In case anybody is reading, and because these are some of the best resources for your dollar.
Have to mention the Rev again, because a lot of newer investors read him. But, where he says today he can't find much in the way of more speculative, IBD 100-type stocks with good charts (and I don't think the IBD 100 stocks are speculative), I am finding more than I can buy right now, right here - mostly different tech & finance/invst broker sectors.
Check out the screen-of-the-day listings too on IBD for some more ideas. Or pay up for a IBD Daily Graphs subscription and you can do your own screens based on IBD ratings and other parameters.
The only mega-cap I'm holding is some GOOG. Otherwise most issues are 200M to 2 B market cap stocks, with a couple of larger companies (but still with smaller floats). Most are still within or under proper buy point ranges as many have pulled back from recent (subtle but real) breakouts. So, I'm still working on my list of final core stocks I still need to trim down to.
GL, GT.
More Stealth action....
This rally is just adding more pain and frustration to many participants it seems, and will add even more pain if the volume stays light and if we keep moving higher and break into high ground.
"Feels Like the Real Thing"...
Article by Cramer on Real Money today regarding the market.
For anyone still concerned on cycle lows,
I'd suggest a look at a 1994 historical chart on the SPX. If market catalysts become negative and hit the market in the next two months, we could get a seasonal pattern that could look more like that year. However, again, with so many people now aware of the 4-yr pattern, who is going to sell the market down into that huge pool of waiting buyers? I'd say odds of the market going back to retest summer lows are very low - it's not going to happen.
I mention 1994, because that cycle low (also a low percentage down move) turned out to be the initiation point of the great tech run from 1995 through '98 - a huge run. The market low that year was actually in April, with a retest in June and then the cycle low and start of the bull run was actually in the second week of December of 1994.
As I've mentioned before on Yahoo Goog board (sorry lost some posts from a corrupted cookie file from them), the unknown still is how many badly damaged funds are out there, and if any more have to liquidate this month/end of the year, does it trigger a selloff in some sectors? Again, I would say the odds are low, especially at this point now (I'll post more on this soon), but will have to wait and see.
If you're still concerned, I'd say focus instead on the gains of the 4-yr cycle (remember also 1998 to 2000). And, focus on the leading stocks and potential leaders right now.
I'm staying long (at 90%+, with 4% short on a homebuilder and ex-DOW component which I will probably cover next week on any weakness) and watching the market. And will trim and focus my total number of current positions down further depending on price/vol action to about 5 or 6 issues.
Below is a recap of some more historical info on the 4-yr cycle from Sam Stoval at S&P, FYI:
There are sixteen quarters in a full four-year presidential cycle, historically, only two have declined on average in the past (I find that amazing too) — the second and third quarter of the second year of the term. And, the best-performing quarter of all 16 quarters (in a presidential cycle) is the fourth quarter of the second year - the one we start tomorrow. The second best quarter is the first quarter of the third year.
Good luck.