watching biotechs, gold & silver
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Pre-market volume only 101 shares though
This news might be affecting ADXS today:
"Affimed lands big, backloaded immunotherapy deal with Genentech, sending its stock into overdrive"
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/affimed-lands-big-backloaded-immunotherapy-deal-genentech-sending-its-stock-into-overdrive?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTmpjM05ETTBOalJrTnpKbCIsInQiOiI4OWdJaWVBOUlaTHBXOVVaT1wvaXRtRERzS0t3MG00K1wveDgrd1RNWWtcL3ZQb0JubWV2TytrRUFhVkpNRHdYQVZTSXlDRjlqbGNUSkdIOU5NRkZHbHdOQlwvOFhHQ3UyM3hNZTB3aUtqQ1wvNnNvb2Jyc0VoR2JoU1V1c0ViVkFUUnJNIn0%3D&mrkid=51876159
Aurinia Announces Participation at the 20th Annual Global Investment Conference in New York City September 4-6, 2018
Celia Economides, Vice President of Corporate and Public Affairs, will provide an overview of the Company's business on Thursday, September 6 at 10:50am ET.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180828005266/en/
Let me guess: we run up a few cents going into the presentation, then slide back down right after.
"Aurinia will definitely sell off the asset, or be acquired.. "
Based on everything they've said publicly, it would be surprising if both of those did not happen. Hopefully DES sale will be substantial.
Luna- "...added more today...first time since pre Ph2b results."
Nice to hear- good sign of things to come. I added myself recently- seems way too cheap here.
BR re "Orbimed sells 460k..."
Maybe the counterbalance is that Goldman added nearly 600K.
Looking at the tutes buys and sells on AUPH, I can't find a strong predictive correlation to anything- can you?
I wonder if Sam's departure from Orbimed is a factor?
I admit I don't like to see institutions selling this- I always figure they have an edge on the individual.
I think the buying here will increase after the big boys return from their beach houses.
63 compounds in development for DES
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/biotechs-line-up-to-tap-growing-ophthalmics-market/431507/
Hard to figure why Aurinia's VOS is apparently currently perceived as having a value of a big fat zero.
Appears that there is room for multiple DES drugs as apparently there are different forms/degrees of DES and the drugs can act differently on different patients- at least that's my amateur take on it at present.
VOS could become very valuable after results this year. Dr. Glickman wasn't kidding when he called VOS a sleeper- would be nice if AUPH awakes from this coma soon.
more on DES drug Cequa approval. Aurinia mentioned
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/sun-pharma-fda-approval-dry-eye-drug/530264/
DES market projected to hit $7.7B by 2025
Article discusses new DES drug approval, some competitors (omits VOS)
https://www.biospace.com/article/sun-pharma-enters-dry-eye-disease-market-with-newly-approved-cequa/
"The permutations/possibilities are large, and probably premature to speculate about.
At this point I don't think it's a real factor with respect to Vocl's prospects in the marketplace."
It's good to know there is nothing to fear from KZR at this early date.
Still looking for a credible bear case/thesis on AUPH and still not finding it.
Everything about it looks good with the exception of the price being so depressed.
Jess, re: "I can’t see myself investing $16 a share for a stock which MAY have a product 7 years away from today."
Not only that- it's currently not liquid- have you looked at the minuscule volumes that trade in KZR?
Too dangerous for me even if I understood their science. Definitely worth watching though, along with everybody else in the Lupus space.
zzaatt- re "how does one calculate the time to switch to the "second position", and why not make it the first choice to begin with."
The following excerpts might help.......it's from my AUPH notes but for some reason I slipped and didn't date it or record the source- guessing it came from twitter sometime back.
"KSS, MD, PhD
....?how these things work in the real world is that some professional society (of rheumatologists, of nephrologists) puts out a set of new diqgnosis and treatment guidelines for lupus nephritis. Based on the playing field now presenting itself, voclosporin will get the nod as the drug to be tried first, with Kezar’s to be used only in voclo failures. And these guidelines get published as a high-profile paper in a major journal like NEJM.
For more than a year, Aurinia have been doing work behind the scenes “indoctrinating” people to think of voclosporin when thinking of LN. They’ve been politely infiltrating professional societies. I don’t have a problem with this as they represent the light and not the darkness. Though it should be only about data in this game, in reality you still have to win over hearts too."
Happy to see the board is having a Kezar (KZR) discussion- it's been on my radar but haven't yet investigated them so thanks to all of you who are following them.
"Aurinia Pharmaceuticals price target raised to $15 from $12 at H.C. Wainwright"
As far as I can tell, Ed has an above average track record.
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2776176
Thanks Maciste. I appreciate the comedy. BTW, I sort of goofed by responding to your post with a message not directed to you.
cheers
The downer of having no 1st tier banks
It would be great to have their stock analysts on-board no doubt, but at least some of them have tiptoed into the stock by buying the equity.
On the plus side, unlike many bio CEO's who aggressively pump/promote/tout/manipulate their stocks (and usually their companies also seem to have poor science with poor prospects for success), the Aurinia team keeps their primary focus on their mission, while keeping their head down and continuing to execute.
They consistently underpromise and overdeliver- signs of a 1st tier biotech in terms of excellence in the quality of the management and the science both- too often a rarity in the bio-world.
I continue to believe it's just a matter of time and the wait will be worth it.
GLTA
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Q2 2018 Results Earnings Call Transcript
Excellent- very positive- all systems are go!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4197459-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-auph-ceo-richard-glickman-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
I see nothing to be concerned about- looks like typical summer doldrums.
They're not alone as a bunch of the biotechs are experiencing similar sleepwalking.
I think it changes when the movers and shakers return from the Hampton's (or whatever beach community they go to).
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...............
$5.99 pre-market on 2600 volume- when does $6+ hold?
More important, when do we see $8-10 or better?
Maybe the recent creep up is in anticipation of VCS (LN) full enrollment
cheers
Jess- Nice find! Thanks for posting. EOM
A different DES approach- what do you think?
https://endpts.com/hoping-to-shake-allergan-shires-dry-eye-dominance-oyster-point-posts-positive-phase-iib-data-for-rival-drug/
"Here's Why Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Gained 32.2% in the First Half of 2018"
excerpt:
"Aurinia recently initiated a dry-eye study that will randomize around 90 patients into groups receiving voclosporin or Restasis from Allergan (NYSE:AGN). If voclosporin can best the market leader, this stock could soar further in the second half than it did in the first. Dosing has already begun, and patients will be evaluated after four weeks, so keep an eye open for the hotly anticipated results."
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/07/14/heres-why-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-inc-gained-322-i.aspx
Maybe Duggan is buying more AKAO........really interesting day for them as they got FDA expected decision (1 yes, 1 no) and market hates it- go figure
Yesterday AUPH has positive news and the market hates that as well- welcome to the Bizarro World where everything is backwards.
Guessing this is the reason for the pop:
"NOTICE OF ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS TO BE HELD ON June 21, 2018"
https://s3.amazonaws.com/content.stockpr.com/auriniapharma/files/pages/auriniapharma/db/239/pre_event_details/99.3+Information+Circular+June212018+r48.pdf
Is this the origin of the company name?
Seems apt.
https://www.gardenia.net/plant/aurinia-saxatilis-basket-of-gold
http://richardnyeanim.com/html/nothing_to_do___.html
As long as it's still green when it finally dries we're good.
"....additional 5.6 million shares that AUPH just authorized are for EMPLOYEES of AUPH...".
They're definitely planning for a takeover, but even if they were not, I'm sure you agree that we should all want every AUPH employee to become a millionaire from their options.
"....it’s a nice area but the traffic is congested and they’re saying it’s gonna get worse before it gets better."
They're going gangbusters up there. Florida itself is exploding with over 1000 people a day moving in and the state's GDP is growing 60% faster than the country as a whole.
The Villages seems to always be among the fastest growing municipalities in the USA- it's really impressive what the developers have done up there, from originating the concept to executing it.
A clever concept but it doesn't appeal to me because the traffic/congestion is too crazy up there, plus it's too cool in January & February. Add in the inflated real estate and the sinkholes and I'm out.
Maciste, congrats on your 200% gain YTD- tremendous!
Have to ask you; what influenced/led you to buy it originally?
TIA
"Might as well dilute the heck out of the existing loyal shareholders by issuing another 5.6 million shares!!"
There is no surprise here, and more shares are coming.
The 106M fully diluted share figure can be found in past annual reports.
Thanks for asking Jess- no cruise or vacay, but did take an extensive road trip from Florida (God's waiting room) to New England until the frigid temps return (I've lost my enthusiasm for winter). Beautiful time of year and also nice to escape the season of high humidity and temps in the south.
Have been reading the board but haven't had anything worthwhile to add. Agree with Luna re Kezar- interesting but early.
Thought the market was starting to appreciate the potential of DES and FSGS so I'm surprised by the recent drop. I think it's time to add to what is clearly a member of the Rodney Dangerfield class of stocks (they get no respect).
Someday the pops will stick.
cheers
Jess- huge potential! Also, Benlysta label specifically says not to be used for LN. Since VCS is safe and potentially effective for SLE, wouldn't VCS own the market for both?
Luna, a question: On May 19, Ron Liu tweeted the following: "Cash sufficient. Selling VOS in Dec 2018 should provide another $50M cash."
Kind of cryptic for me. I'm assuming he means the 50M is an upfront that then includes royalties for DES. I'm guessing you've seen these types of deals before when an asset is sold.
Any idea what the royalty % would be, what kind of cash would be generated for Aurinia going forward, what the total value of DES would be? Also, do you think Ron talked with anyone at Aurinia or is he guessing or ???
Any thoughts appreciated.
TIA
"Lupus nephritis in first year of SLE predicts 'absolute worst' for patient"
https://www.healio.com/rheumatology/lupus/news/online/%7Bd7e4cd23-a6d2-4ef3-b517-ba9715f8ae4e%7D/lupus-nephritis-in-first-year-of-sle-predicts-absolute-worst-for-patient
"I would like being out, but certainty don’t have too!"
Have to ask why ??????
TIA
Why so cheap?
Apologies for misleading you- saved some $ today- no need to change hat sizes.
I'm acquiring a taste for crow lately- tastes a lot like chicken.
Back on topic, I wonder if we're in a bear trap here. Duggan could make the shares scarce anytime so I wonder if he will- he could even buy the whole float if he wanted to.
LTD- that product has to be a tough sell. It just strikes me as hilarious that Jo posts a link that says May 11 this crashed so hard it was about the worst loser on the exchange, plus the company then offered shares at over 1/3 off.
That alone takes chutzpah, but then she doubles and triples down by claiming the product is so sophisticated we're not smart enough to understand it.
I'm guessing our visiting spammer may be an alien, and therefore can't get a Google translation to understand what that link actually says.
Reminds me of the rampant Nigerian Price email scam from some time back.
Spam is for eating and not for the boards. Comic relief while we wait for the payday here.
cheers
"There seemed to be a misunderstanding because of the complexity of the analysis."
Have to admit, Jo is quite the comedienne.
Although, it would have been nice to have gotten those heavily discounted shares direct from the company last Friday.
I missed that one, but luckily I've recently been contacted by someone from the Nigerian Royal Family, who wants to pay me a large fee just for helping him transfer some money to the states. Sounds really promising.
I like Luna's ideas on this subject but I can't defer to him since he beat me to it.
My favorite quote on this general topic is this:
“We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.”
— Warren Buffett
I know I'm weaseling/wimping out, but my defense is that while I may not be the worst market timer out there, I'm fairly sure I'm in the running for the title.
I thought we should have gone to $10 last fall- I was surprised (again) when the announcement of the new indications didn't run the price up.
Your guess would likely be better than mine. I think there are something like 106M shares fully diluted, so every $1B translates into around $9.40 per share.
So my advice is to wait for a day when you're feeling more optimistic and make estimates what VCS for LN, SLE, MCD, and FSGS could bring, then add in another sizable number if VOS is successful in DES. Then discount everything in case of an early BO.
Apologies for the balk, but so many variables make the range very wide.
The most certain thing I am confident about is that someday this stock will make moves in dollars and not pennies.